rachid TOUMACHE - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by rachid TOUMACHE
Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée, Dec 31, 2004
The structural dependence of the Algerian economy on the hydrocarbons sector is of great concern,... more The structural dependence of the Algerian economy on the hydrocarbons sector is of great concern, first because it represents the main foreign currency inflows to the economy; it also has been a source of pro-cyclicality to government spending and taxes policy. The actual dual shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil prices plunge makes it very important to conduct an analysis that assesses the direct and indirect effects of oil price fluctuations on the Algerian economic activity.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 15, 2013
This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat... more This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat e using mult ifract al t ime series analysis w hich st ems from t he fract al t heory first implement ed by Benoît M andelbrot in early 1960. Invest igat ing t ime series propert ies using t his t echnique allow s us t o shed light on import ant charact erist ics omit t ed by t radit ional t ime series analyses and highlight t he usefulness of local Hölder exponent s in predict ing crash pat t erns.
Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée, Jun 30, 2012
L'évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu présenté ... more L'évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu présenté par la richesse nationale des pays (PIB) hors des autres facteurs infrastructurels comme le prix de véhicule, prix du carburant, réseau routier, densité de la population, étendu d'un pays…etc. Cet étude prévoit l'image future du parc automobile algérien on a basé sur la technique d'une série chronologique de coupe instantanée, l'évolution du parc auto est modélisée en utilisant trois modèles utilitaires fournis par la littérature à savoir : la fonction Gompertz, Quasi-logistique et Logistique. En outre, ces modèles ont été calibrés par l'usage des données des panels ou bien des données regroupées 46 pays du monde (sections) captés durant 32 ans allant de 1971 au 2002 (banque mondiale) sous la construction de quatre panels contiennent l'Algérie, la Chine, l'Inde et les Etats-Unis donc pour ce chois on a pris en considération la tendance internationale de l'évolution du parc en fonction de PIB ainsi les pays ayant les mêmes caractéristiques que notre pays, alors un ensemble des scénarios future du parc auto algérien ont été dégagé par les différents modèles statistiquement significatifs. MOTS-CLES : Possession de véhicules, parc auto, données de panels, fonction Gompertz, Quasi-logistique et Logistique, calibrage des modèles économétriques, la projection du parc auto, scénarios.
Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée, Dec 31, 2009
Proceedings of the 44th International Academic Conference, Vienna, 2018
École nationale supérieure de statistique et d'économie appliquée, Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE ENSSEA... more École nationale supérieure de statistique et d'économie appliquée, Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE ENSSEA d'Alger , Algeria IMANE BENAMEUR
International Journal of Business & Economic Development, Jan 4, 2014
In the recent past, the NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) approach has formulated a theoretical... more In the recent past, the NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) approach has formulated a theoretical framework for the long-term natural real exchange rate, the estimation of which is based on a set of behavioral relationships resembling standard macro-econometric structural equations. This approach relates GSJ: Volume 8, Issue 1, January 2020 ISSN 2320-9186 1185 GSJ© 2020 www.globalscientificjournal.com the equilibrium real exchange rate, towards which the real exchange rate is heading, and a set of explanatory variables for the exchange rate. This article attempts to estimate the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate for the Algerian economy from 1980 to 2018 using the Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) using an ARDL model. The model is based on the balance of payments approach, assuming that the real exchange rate ensures macroeconomic internal and external balance of the economy.
The car fleet evolution in Algeria is due to the non- linear variation of the income represented ... more The car fleet evolution in Algeria is due to the non- linear variation of the income represented by the national wealth (GDP) rather than other infrastructural factors such as car prices, fuel prices, the transport network, population density, and the extent of the country. This study predicts the future image of the Algerian car fleet, based on the technique of time-series cross- sectional data. The evolution of the car fleet is modeled using three utilities models provided by the literature namely the Gompertz function, the function Quasi-Logistics and Logistics function. In addition, these models were calibrated using panel data or pooled data. 46 countries (sections) were captured during 32 years from 1971 to 2002 (source: World Bank) to build four panels which include Algeria, China, India and the United States. For this choice, it was considered the international trend of the development of the park in terms of GDP and the countries with the same characteristics as ours. As a ...
The analysis of the correlation between budgetary revenues and economic growth through fiscal pol... more The analysis of the correlation between budgetary revenues and economic growth through fiscal policy represents an important debated topic in the theoretical and empirical literature. This paper investigates the effect of the relationship between fiscal variables and economic growth in MENA countries using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method as a dynamic panel data analysis over the 1980-2007 periods. The dynamic Panel Data result especially GMM-Sys establishes a long run relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, the correlation pattern between the per-capita gross domestics and the categories of budgetary revenues reveals a link of positive causality between the economic growth and fiscal revenues. Furthermore, the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.
As Algeria is an oil-rich country having its revenues entirely linked to hydrocarbon exports, ten... more As Algeria is an oil-rich country having its revenues entirely linked to hydrocarbon exports, tensions in the oil market might engender risks of macroeconomic imbalances. Bearing in mind the importance of oil for the world economy and its fallout during a prolonged surge of its prices, it would be interesting to investigate the relationship inflation-oil prices, which is a point of contrast among economists. At first, we will display theoretical background of inflation and the inflation patterns in Algeria, before putting evidence of strategic issues of the oil revenues in Algeria. We will finish by an econometric analysis via a VAR model of the eventual relationship between oil prices and inflation in Algeria. This article aims to answer the question: “What’s the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation in Algeria? I. INTRODUCTION In a world full of problems, wars and crises; oil is ranked among all-economies as of paramount importance. Its nickname “black gold” suffices to hi...
RESUME L’évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu pr... more RESUME L’évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu présenté par la richesse nationale des pays (PIB) hors des autres facteurs infrastructurels comme le prix de véhicule, prix du carburant, réseau routier, densité de la population, étendu d’un pays...etc. Cet étude prévoit l’image future du parc automobile algérien on a basé sur la technique d’une série chronologique de coupe instantanée, l’évolution du parc auto est modélisée en utilisant trois modèles utilitaires fournis par la littérature à savoir : la fonction Gompertz, Quasi-logistique et Logistique. En outre, ces modèles ont été calibrés par l’usage des données des panels ou bien des données regroupées 46 pays du monde (sections) captés durant 32 ans allant de 1971 au 2002 (banque mondiale) sous la construction de quatre panels contiennent l’Algérie, la Chine, l’Inde et les Etats-Unis donc pour ce chois on a pris en considération la tendance internationale de l’évolution du parc en fo...
Proceedings of the 33rd International Academic Conference, Vienna, 2017
High scholl of applied statistic and economic , Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE High scholl of applied st... more High scholl of applied statistic and economic , Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE High scholl of applied statistic and economic , Algeria
Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2016
The aim of this study is to assess the economic growth in Algeria and to determine the set of var... more The aim of this study is to assess the economic growth in Algeria and to determine the set of variable impacting it on different periods. It relies on structural analysis approach based on an investigation method using the software MICMAC (matrix of cross-influence, applied multiplication to a ranking) which was developed by the Institute of Computing Innovation 3IE following the request of Investigation Laboratory on Prospective, Strategy and Organization LIPSOR. The structural analysis can define the key variables of the system (VCS) to catch the most influential variables on economic growth during three time intervals: the near past (direct impact), the actual period (indirect influence) and the long run (potential indirect impact) bearing in mind that the horizon of our study is 2025. The results show the most influential variables ranked during each period as follows: The near past (the direct influence): the economic system, public spending, the regulation, foreign reserves an...
This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat... more This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat e using mult ifract al t ime series analysis w hich st ems from t he fract al t heory first implement ed by Benoît M andelbrot in early 1960. Invest igat ing t ime series propert ies using t his t echnique allow s us t o shed light on import ant charact erist ics omit t ed by t radit ional t ime series analyses and highlight t he usefulness of local Hölder exponent s in predict ing crash pat t erns.
Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée, Dec 31, 2004
The structural dependence of the Algerian economy on the hydrocarbons sector is of great concern,... more The structural dependence of the Algerian economy on the hydrocarbons sector is of great concern, first because it represents the main foreign currency inflows to the economy; it also has been a source of pro-cyclicality to government spending and taxes policy. The actual dual shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil prices plunge makes it very important to conduct an analysis that assesses the direct and indirect effects of oil price fluctuations on the Algerian economic activity.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 15, 2013
This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat... more This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat e using mult ifract al t ime series analysis w hich st ems from t he fract al t heory first implement ed by Benoît M andelbrot in early 1960. Invest igat ing t ime series propert ies using t his t echnique allow s us t o shed light on import ant charact erist ics omit t ed by t radit ional t ime series analyses and highlight t he usefulness of local Hölder exponent s in predict ing crash pat t erns.
Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée, Jun 30, 2012
L'évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu présenté ... more L'évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu présenté par la richesse nationale des pays (PIB) hors des autres facteurs infrastructurels comme le prix de véhicule, prix du carburant, réseau routier, densité de la population, étendu d'un pays…etc. Cet étude prévoit l'image future du parc automobile algérien on a basé sur la technique d'une série chronologique de coupe instantanée, l'évolution du parc auto est modélisée en utilisant trois modèles utilitaires fournis par la littérature à savoir : la fonction Gompertz, Quasi-logistique et Logistique. En outre, ces modèles ont été calibrés par l'usage des données des panels ou bien des données regroupées 46 pays du monde (sections) captés durant 32 ans allant de 1971 au 2002 (banque mondiale) sous la construction de quatre panels contiennent l'Algérie, la Chine, l'Inde et les Etats-Unis donc pour ce chois on a pris en considération la tendance internationale de l'évolution du parc en fonction de PIB ainsi les pays ayant les mêmes caractéristiques que notre pays, alors un ensemble des scénarios future du parc auto algérien ont été dégagé par les différents modèles statistiquement significatifs. MOTS-CLES : Possession de véhicules, parc auto, données de panels, fonction Gompertz, Quasi-logistique et Logistique, calibrage des modèles économétriques, la projection du parc auto, scénarios.
Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée, Dec 31, 2009
Proceedings of the 44th International Academic Conference, Vienna, 2018
École nationale supérieure de statistique et d'économie appliquée, Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE ENSSEA... more École nationale supérieure de statistique et d'économie appliquée, Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE ENSSEA d'Alger , Algeria IMANE BENAMEUR
International Journal of Business & Economic Development, Jan 4, 2014
In the recent past, the NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) approach has formulated a theoretical... more In the recent past, the NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) approach has formulated a theoretical framework for the long-term natural real exchange rate, the estimation of which is based on a set of behavioral relationships resembling standard macro-econometric structural equations. This approach relates GSJ: Volume 8, Issue 1, January 2020 ISSN 2320-9186 1185 GSJ© 2020 www.globalscientificjournal.com the equilibrium real exchange rate, towards which the real exchange rate is heading, and a set of explanatory variables for the exchange rate. This article attempts to estimate the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate for the Algerian economy from 1980 to 2018 using the Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) using an ARDL model. The model is based on the balance of payments approach, assuming that the real exchange rate ensures macroeconomic internal and external balance of the economy.
The car fleet evolution in Algeria is due to the non- linear variation of the income represented ... more The car fleet evolution in Algeria is due to the non- linear variation of the income represented by the national wealth (GDP) rather than other infrastructural factors such as car prices, fuel prices, the transport network, population density, and the extent of the country. This study predicts the future image of the Algerian car fleet, based on the technique of time-series cross- sectional data. The evolution of the car fleet is modeled using three utilities models provided by the literature namely the Gompertz function, the function Quasi-Logistics and Logistics function. In addition, these models were calibrated using panel data or pooled data. 46 countries (sections) were captured during 32 years from 1971 to 2002 (source: World Bank) to build four panels which include Algeria, China, India and the United States. For this choice, it was considered the international trend of the development of the park in terms of GDP and the countries with the same characteristics as ours. As a ...
The analysis of the correlation between budgetary revenues and economic growth through fiscal pol... more The analysis of the correlation between budgetary revenues and economic growth through fiscal policy represents an important debated topic in the theoretical and empirical literature. This paper investigates the effect of the relationship between fiscal variables and economic growth in MENA countries using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method as a dynamic panel data analysis over the 1980-2007 periods. The dynamic Panel Data result especially GMM-Sys establishes a long run relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, the correlation pattern between the per-capita gross domestics and the categories of budgetary revenues reveals a link of positive causality between the economic growth and fiscal revenues. Furthermore, the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.
As Algeria is an oil-rich country having its revenues entirely linked to hydrocarbon exports, ten... more As Algeria is an oil-rich country having its revenues entirely linked to hydrocarbon exports, tensions in the oil market might engender risks of macroeconomic imbalances. Bearing in mind the importance of oil for the world economy and its fallout during a prolonged surge of its prices, it would be interesting to investigate the relationship inflation-oil prices, which is a point of contrast among economists. At first, we will display theoretical background of inflation and the inflation patterns in Algeria, before putting evidence of strategic issues of the oil revenues in Algeria. We will finish by an econometric analysis via a VAR model of the eventual relationship between oil prices and inflation in Algeria. This article aims to answer the question: “What’s the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation in Algeria? I. INTRODUCTION In a world full of problems, wars and crises; oil is ranked among all-economies as of paramount importance. Its nickname “black gold” suffices to hi...
RESUME L’évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu pr... more RESUME L’évolution du parc automobile en Algérie est due à la variation non linéaire de revenu présenté par la richesse nationale des pays (PIB) hors des autres facteurs infrastructurels comme le prix de véhicule, prix du carburant, réseau routier, densité de la population, étendu d’un pays...etc. Cet étude prévoit l’image future du parc automobile algérien on a basé sur la technique d’une série chronologique de coupe instantanée, l’évolution du parc auto est modélisée en utilisant trois modèles utilitaires fournis par la littérature à savoir : la fonction Gompertz, Quasi-logistique et Logistique. En outre, ces modèles ont été calibrés par l’usage des données des panels ou bien des données regroupées 46 pays du monde (sections) captés durant 32 ans allant de 1971 au 2002 (banque mondiale) sous la construction de quatre panels contiennent l’Algérie, la Chine, l’Inde et les Etats-Unis donc pour ce chois on a pris en considération la tendance internationale de l’évolution du parc en fo...
Proceedings of the 33rd International Academic Conference, Vienna, 2017
High scholl of applied statistic and economic , Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE High scholl of applied st... more High scholl of applied statistic and economic , Algeria RACHID TOUMACHE High scholl of applied statistic and economic , Algeria
Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2016
The aim of this study is to assess the economic growth in Algeria and to determine the set of var... more The aim of this study is to assess the economic growth in Algeria and to determine the set of variable impacting it on different periods. It relies on structural analysis approach based on an investigation method using the software MICMAC (matrix of cross-influence, applied multiplication to a ranking) which was developed by the Institute of Computing Innovation 3IE following the request of Investigation Laboratory on Prospective, Strategy and Organization LIPSOR. The structural analysis can define the key variables of the system (VCS) to catch the most influential variables on economic growth during three time intervals: the near past (direct impact), the actual period (indirect influence) and the long run (potential indirect impact) bearing in mind that the horizon of our study is 2025. The results show the most influential variables ranked during each period as follows: The near past (the direct influence): the economic system, public spending, the regulation, foreign reserves an...
This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat... more This art icle aims t o st udy t he scaling behavior of t he Algerian Dinar-US Dollar exchange rat e using mult ifract al t ime series analysis w hich st ems from t he fract al t heory first implement ed by Benoît M andelbrot in early 1960. Invest igat ing t ime series propert ies using t his t echnique allow s us t o shed light on import ant charact erist ics omit t ed by t radit ional t ime series analyses and highlight t he usefulness of local Hölder exponent s in predict ing crash pat t erns.