Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA (original) (raw)
References
Agee JK, Flewelling R (1983) A fire cycle model based on climate for the Olympic Mountains, Washington, vol 7. In: Proceedings, Seventh conference on fire and forest meteorology, Fort Collins, CO, 25–28 April, pp 32–37
Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat Contr 19(6):716–723 Article Google Scholar
Allen CD, Breshears DD (1998) Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 95:14839–14842 Article Google Scholar
Bailey RG (1995) Description of the ecoregions of the United States. USDA For Service Miscs Public 1391 (revis), Washington, DC
Bentz BJ, Logan JA, Amman GD (1991) Temperature-dependent development of mountain pine beetle and simulation of its phenology. Can Entomol 123:1083–1094 Article Google Scholar
Boisvenue C, Running SW (2006) Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity—evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 12:862–882 Google Scholar
Breshears DD, Cobb NS, Rich PM, Price KP, Allen CD, Balice RG, Romme WH, Kastens JH, Floyd ML, Belnap J, Anderson JJ, Myers OB, Meyer CW (2005) Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change type drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 102:15144–15148 Article Google Scholar
Carroll AL, Taylor SW, Regniere J, Safranyik L (2004) Effects of climate change on range expansion by the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia. In: Mountain pine beetle symposium: challenges and solutions. Nat Resour Can, Can For Serv, Pacific For Cen, Kelowna, BC, pp 223–232
Case MJ, Peterson DL (2007) Growth–climate relations of lodgepole pine in the North Cascades National Park, Washington. Northwest Sci 81(1):62–75 Article Google Scholar
Cayan DR (1996) Interannual climate variability and snow pack in the western United States. J Climate 9(5):928–948 Article Google Scholar
Cushman SA, McKenzie D, Peterson DL, Littell JS, McKelvey KS (2007) Research agenda for integrated landscape modeling. USDA For Serv Gen Tech Rep RMRS-GTR-194, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Fort Collins, CO
Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith JI, Gibson WP, Doggett MK, Taylor GH, Curtis J, Pasteris PA (2008) Physiographically sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.1688 Google Scholar
Davis MB (1986) Climatic instability, time lags, and community disequilibrium. In: Diamond J, Case TJ (eds) Community ecology. Harper and Row, New York, pp 269–284 Google Scholar
Davis MB, Botkin DB (1985) Sensitivity of cool-temperate forests and their fossil pollen record to rapid temperature change. Quat Res 23:327–340 Article Google Scholar
DeLucia EH, Maherali H, Carey EV (2000) Climate-driven changes in biomass allocation in pines. Glob Chang Biol 6(5):587–593 Article Google Scholar
Elsner MM, Cuo L, Voisin N, Deems JS, Hamlet AF, Vano JA, Mickelson KEB, Lee S-Y, Lettenmaier DP (2010) Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9855-0 Google Scholar
Franklin JF, Dyrness CT (1988) Natural vegetation of Oregon and Washington. Oregon State Univerity Press, Corvallis Google Scholar
Gedalof Z, Peterson DL, Mantua NJ (2005) Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the Northwestern United States. Ecol Appl 15:154–174 Article Google Scholar
Gillett NP, Weaver AJ, Zwiers FW, Flannigan MD (2004) Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophys Res Lett 31:L18211. doi:10.1029/2004GL020876 Article Google Scholar
Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Model 135:147–186 Article Google Scholar
Henderson JA, Peter DH (1981) Preliminary plant associations and habitat types of the Shelton Ranger District, Olympic National Forest. USDA For Serv, Pacific Northwest Reg, Portland, OR, p 53
Henderson JA, Peter DH, Lesher RD, Shaw DC (1989) Forested plant associations of the Olympic National Forest. USDA For Service, Pacific Northwest Res Stn R6-ECOL-TP-001-88, Portland, p 502
Henderson JA, Lesher RD, Peter DH, Shaw DC (1992) Field guide to the forested plant associations of the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest. USDA For Service, Pacific Northwest Res Stn R6-ECOL-TP-028-91, Portland
Hessl AE, McKenzie D, Schellhaas R (2004) Drought and pacific decadal oscillation affect fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest. Ecol Appl 14:425–442 Article Google Scholar
Hicke JA, Jenkins JC (2008) Mapping lodgepole pine stand structure susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack across the western United States. For Ecol Manag 255:1536–1547 Article Google Scholar
Hicke JA, Logan JA, Powell J, Ojima DS (2006) Changing temperatures influence suitability for modeled mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the western United States. J Geophys Res B 111:G02019. doi:10.1029/2005JG000101 Article Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007a) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers. http://www.ipcc.ch
Jenkins MJ, Hebertson E, Page W, Jorgensen CA (2008) Bark beetles, fuels, fires and implications for forest management in the Intermountain West. For Ecol Manag 254(1):16 Article Google Scholar
Joyce LA, Blate GM, Littell JS, McNulty SG, Millar CI, Moser SC, Neilson RP (2008) National forests, chapter 3. In: Julius SH, West JM (eds) JS Baron, B Griffith, LA Joyce, P Kareiva, BD Keller, MA Palmer, CH Peterson, and JM Scott (authors), Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A report by the US climate change science program and the Subcommittee on global change research. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, pp 3-1–3-127
Kimball JS, Running SW, Nemani R (1997) An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature. Agric For Meteorol 85:87–98 Article Google Scholar
Knowles N, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR (2006) Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States. J Climate 19:4545–4559 Article Google Scholar
Lenihan JM, Bachelet D, Neilson RP, Drapek RJ (2008) Simulated response of conterminous united states ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2. Glob Planet Change 64:16–25 Article Google Scholar
Lillybridge TR, Kovalchik BL, Williams CK, Smith BG (1995) Field guide to forested plant associations of the Wenatchee National Forest. USDA For Serv Gen Tech Rep PNW-GTR-359. Pacific Northwest Res Stn, Portland, p 336
Littell JS (2006) Climate impacts to forest ecosystem processes: Douglas-Fir growth in Northwestern U.S. Mountain Landscapes and Area Burned by Wildfire in Western U.S. Ecoprovinces. PhD dissertation. University of Washington, Coll For Resources, Seattle, p 160
Littell JS, Peterson DL (2005) A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the Northwestern US. For Chron 81:369–374 Google Scholar
Littell JS, Peterson DL, Tjoelker M (2008) Douglas-fir growth-climate relationships along biophysical gradients in mountain protected areas of the northwestern U.S. Ecol Monogr 78(3):349–368 Article Google Scholar
Littell JS, McKenzie D, Peterson DL, Westerling AL (2009) Climate and wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces, 1916–2003. Ecol Appl 19:1003–1021 Article Google Scholar
Lloyd AH, Graumlich LJ (1997) A 3,500 year record of changes in the structure and distribution of forests at treeline in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Ecology 78:1199–1210 Article Google Scholar
Logan JA, Amman GD (1986) A distribution model for egg development in mountain pine beetle. Can Entomol 118:361–372 Article Google Scholar
Logan JA, Bentz BJ (1999) Model analysis of mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) seasonality. Environ Entomol 28:924–934 Google Scholar
Logan JA, Powell JA (2001) Ghost forests, global warming and the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Am Entomol 47:160–173 Google Scholar
Logan JA, Powell JA (2004) Modeling mountain pine beetle phenological response to temperature. In: Mountain pine beetle symposium: challenges and solutions. Nat Res Can, Can For Serv, Pacific For Cen, Kelowna, pp 210–222
Logan JA, Bolstad PV, Bentz BJ, Perkins DL (1995) Assessing the effects of changing climate on mountain pine beetle dynamics. In: Workshop on interior west global climate. USDA For Serv, Fort Collins, CO, pp 92–105
Lutz JA (2008) Climate, fire, and vegetation change in Yosemite National Park. PhD dissertation. University of Washington, Coll For Resources Seattle, Washington, USA, p 169
Lutz JA, Halpern CB (2006) Tree mortality during early forest development: a long-term study of rates, causes, and consequences. Ecol Monogr 76:257–275 Article Google Scholar
Lynch HJ, Renkin RA, Crabtree RL, Moorcroft PR (2006) The influence of previous mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) activity on the 1988 Yellowstone fires. Ecosystems 9:1318–1327 Article Google Scholar
McKenzie D, Hessl AE, Peterson DL (2001) Recent growth in conifer species of western North America: assessing the spatial patterns of radial growth trends. Can J For Res 31:526–538 Article Google Scholar
McKenzie D, Peterson DW, Peterson DL, Thornton PE (2003) Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington state, USA. J Biogeogr 30:1093–1108 Article Google Scholar
McKenzie D, Gedalof Z, Peterson DL, Mote PW (2004) Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conserv Biol 18:890–902 Article Google Scholar
McKenzie D, Peterson DL, Littell JS (2009) Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America. In: Krupa SV, Bytnerowicz A, Arbaugh M, Riebau A, Anderson C (eds) Developments in environmental science, wild land fires and air pollution, vol 8. Elsevier Science, Ltd., Amsterdam, pp 319–337 Google Scholar
Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 17:2145–2151 Article Google Scholar
Milne BT, Gupta VK, Restrepo C (2002) A scale-invariant coupling of plants, water, energy, and terrain. Ecoscience 9:191–199 Google Scholar
Mote PW, Hamlet AF, Clark MP, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86:39–49 Article Google Scholar
Nakawatase JM, Peterson DL (2006) Spatial variability in forest growth–climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Can J For Res 36:77–91 Article Google Scholar
Neilson RP, Pitelka LF, Solomon AM, Nathan R, Midgley GF, Fragoso JMV, Lischke H, Thompson K (2005) Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change. Bioscience 55:749–759 Article Google Scholar
Oneil EE (2006) Developing stand density thresholds to address mountain pine beetle susceptibility in eastern Washington forests. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle, p 99
Overpeck JT, Rind D, Goldberg R (1990) Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343:51–53 Article Google Scholar
Peterson DW, Peterson DL (2001) Mountain hemlock growth responds to climatic variability at annual and decadal scales. Ecology 82:3330–3345 Article Google Scholar
Powell JA, Logan JA (2005) Insect seasonality: circle map analysis of temperature-driven life cycles. Theor Popul Biol 67:161–179 Article Google Scholar
Rehfeldt GE, Crookston NL, Warwell MV, Evans JS (2006) Empirical analysis of plant–climate relationships for the western United States. Int J Plant Sci 167(6):1123–1150 Article Google Scholar
Running SW, Nemani RR, Hungerford RD (1987) Extrapolation of synoptic meteorological data in mountainous terrain and its use for simulating forest evapotranspiration and photosynthesis. Can J For Res 17(6):472–483 Article Google Scholar
Running SW, Nemani RR, Heinsch FA, Zhao M, Reeves M, Hashimoto H (2004) A continuous satellite-derived measure of global terrestrial primary production. Bioscience 54(6):547–560 Article Google Scholar
Sacks WJ, Schimel DS, Monson RK (2007) Coupling between carbon cycling and climate in a high-elevation subalpine forest: a model-data fusion analysis. Oecologia 151(1):54–68 Article Google Scholar
Salathé Jr EP, Mote PW, Wiley MW (2007) Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. Int J Climatol 27:1611–1621 Article Google Scholar
Stephenson NL (1990) Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. Am Nat 135:649–670 Article Google Scholar
Stephenson NL (1998) Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales. J Biogeogr 25:855–870 Article Google Scholar
Swetnam TW, Lynch AM (1993) Multicentury, regional-scale patterns of western spruce budworm outbreaks. Ecol Monogr 63(4):399–424 Article Google Scholar
Thornton PE, Running SW (1999) An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Agric For Meteorol 93(4):211–228 Article Google Scholar
Thornton PE, Running SW, White MA (1997) Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. J Hydrol 190(3–4):214–251 Article Google Scholar
Thornton PE, Hasenauer H, White MA (2000) Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria. Agric For Meteorol 104:255–271 Article Google Scholar
van Mantgem PJ, Stephenson NL (2007) Apparent climatically induced increase of tree mortality rates in a temperate forest. Ecol Lett 10:909–916 Article Google Scholar
van Mantgem PJ, Stephenson NL, Byrne JC, Daniels LD, Franklin JF, Fulé PZ, Harmon ME, Larson AJ, Smith JM, Taylor AH, Veblen TT (2009) Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States. Science 323:521–524. doi:10.1126/science.1165000 Article Google Scholar
Venables WN, Ripley BD (2002) Modern applied statistics with S, 4th edn. Springer, New York, p 495 Google Scholar
Waring RH, Running SW (1998) Forest ecosystems: analysis at multiple scales. Academic Press, New York, p 370 Google Scholar
Wellner CA (1978) Management problems resulting from mountain pine beetles in lodgepole pine forests. In: Theory and practice of mountain pine beetle management in lodgepole pine forests. Pullman, WA, For, Wildlife and Range Exp Stn, University of Idaho, pp 9–15
Williams CK, Lillybridge TR (1983) Forested plant associations of the Okanogan National Forest. USDA Forest Serv Tech Pap R6-ECOL-132b-1983. Pacific Northwest Res Stn, Portland, p 140
Williams CK, Lillybridge TR, Smith BG (1990) Forested plant associations of the Colville National Forest, field guide. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Res Stn, Portland, p 133