Mohammad Heydari | University of Malaya, Malaysia (original) (raw)

Mohammad Heydari

work experience:
Supervisor Engineer Of Consulting Organization
From 16/11/2007 To 19/12/2007
Technical Engineer Of Protective And Security Municipality Of Tehran
From 20/12/2007 To 09/10/2009
Math Teacher For MSc At Institute Of Mahan
From 02/10/2009 To 08/02/2010
Technical And Supervisor Engineer Of Engineering Organization
From 10/10/2009 To 15/02/2010
Technical Engineer of Investment Organization
From 16/02/2010 To 23/06/2010
Civil Engineer in Parmis Control Sazeh ( PCS Company )
From 10/10/2009 Up To Now
Math Teaching at Rayan Kashiha Institute ( Malaysia )
From 18/09/2011 Up To Now

PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATION/MEMBERSHIP:

National Committee of Large Dams
Expert Committee In National Irrigation and Drainage Organization (No. 1005)
Hydraulic Committee (Member Code: 2-1675-86)
National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage (No. 101)
Water Resources Management Organization
Iranian Engineering Society

Certifications:
Course title,Issued by ,Date of Issued

Value Engineering - Introduce (First Level),Iranian Value Engineering Society

Value Engineering - Theory Courses (Second Level),Iranian Value Engineering Society

Value Engineering - Simulation (Third Level),Iranian Value Engineering Society

Value Engineering - Practical Workshop (Forth Level),Iranian Value Engineering Society

Research Methodology,University Malaya,August 2011
Academic Writing For Postgraduate Students,University Malaya,January 2011
Bahasa Malaya,University Malaya,

Reference Management (Endnote X5),CCCNIT

How To Research,CCCNIT

The Effective Use Of Research Tools And Resources
CCCNIT,December 2011
Genetic Algorithms Using MATLAB,CCCNIT,November 2011
Artificial Neural Network Using MATLAB,CCCNIT,December 2011
Writing Papers for ISI Indexed Journals And Targeting A Suitable Journal,CCCNIT,March 2012
Effective Search Thorough The Citation Trackers And Online Database,CCCNIT,March 2012
An Introduction To Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)
CCCNIT,March 2012
Advanced Microsoft Word, 2010,CCCNIT,December 2011
ICDL 1 , 2 , 3, 2008
The Effective Use of Research Tools Box and Resources,UMISCA,Feb 2013
Supervisors: Faridah Othman

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Published Papers by Mohammad Heydari

Research paper thumbnail of A Comparison between the Amount of Reservoir Sediment Load Prediction during Design Period and the Operational Period

Sedimentation of dams in Iran is an important issue. Often the sedimentation prediction is done i... more Sedimentation of dams in Iran is an important issue. Often the sedimentation prediction is done in different ways in dams’ design. Sometimes due to lack of data of sedimentation, the calculations lead to false results. To compare the predictions made as to whether the design is correct or not a method called Bathymetry is being used to determine the amount of sediment deposited in the reservoir in a certain period of time. The comparison between the above methods can determine whether the rate of deposition matches the anticipated design time or not? Therefore, in this paper, deposition rate obtained through Bathymetry was compared to the amount of anticipated deposition at design time in Karaj and Latian dams. So we used 40 to 45 years of operation period, which is done by echo sounder system, with the gained results during designing of Karaj dam and Latian dam. Furthermore, sedimentation rate and volume reduction percentage are evaluated in these two dams and the results were analyzed for determining sedimentation rate and also to study whether the total sediment volume during the reservoir useful life coincides calculations during designing. In the end, it showed that the Area Increment Method for the mentioned dams was not an appropriate and adequate method to distribute sediments. The data obtained by sedimentation through Bathymetry findings can be a model for other dams in Iran and worldwide.

Research paper thumbnail of INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SEASONALIZATION BASED ON STATISTICAL PARAMETERS IN NORMALIZING, MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLOW TIME SERIES

To solve many problems such as estimation of average monthly river inflow, it is necessary to con... more To solve many problems such as estimation of average monthly river inflow, it is necessary to consider a time-dependent phenomenon which is involved in several factors. So, a stochastic model has to be obtained to calculate the probability of a future amount of inflow. Studying of river behavior and the ability to forecast the future events is a prerequisite for the preparation of optimization models. In the present study, methods for creating, diagnosis and assessing the rate of compatibility with seasonal ARIMA time series models have been provided. It is also supposed that the seasonal classification based on their statistical parameter similarities, could lead to a better normalized series in comparison to the other transformation methods. The discussed methods are suitable for continuous systems. The ARIMA method was used to predict the future amounts of the inflow into the Karaj reservoir by using its previous and present values. For implementing models, first, it is necessary to normalize the observed data with a logical transformation method considering seasonalization. The results showed that the best fitted model is an annual series ARIMA (1, 0, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 with logarithmic transformation for forecasting models. It is also concluded that the 12 month forecast of inflow is better than 24 months in terms of the forecasted values.

Research paper thumbnail of STAGE-DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIP IN TIDAL RIVERS FOR TIDAL FLOOD CONDITION

reach is a suitable tool for the tidal flood risk and environmental management and design for riv... more reach is a suitable tool for the tidal flood risk and environmental management and design for rivers that are located in coastal area. The reaches of the river that affected by river flow and tidal wave are called as tidal limit and water level in this limit is a function of flood discharge and water level in upstream and downstream, respectively. In tidal limit, tidal waves propagate along the river to the upstream and combination of these waves and upstream flood discharge leads to an increase in water level. This mechanism increases flood plain limit and potential of damage and the risk. In this study, the reach between Ahvaz and Khorramshahr in Karun River in Iran is selected as case study and different linear models for the prediction of water level in tidal flood condition are investigated. Results show that the simple linear regression is not acceptable because of its variable variance of residuals. Transformed nonlinear models that are a form of linear models are used for modeling too. Two equations (Logarithmic and Power) with improved coefficient of determination, relatively constant variance and normal distribution of residuals of models are concluded from detailed analysis. These selected models are used for acceptability of these models considering their simplicity.

Research paper thumbnail of OPTIMAL OPERATION OF MULTIPLE AND MULTI PURPOSE RESERVOIRS SYSTEMS USING NON-DOMINATED SORTING GENETIC ALGORITHM (NSGA-II)

Iran is considered an arid country with rainfall less than a third of the average rainfall in the... more Iran is considered an arid country with rainfall less than a third of the average rainfall in the world. In these areas, one of the strategies to cope with water shortages and drought is to use optimal operation models. Several studies have been conducted in this area and a variety of models have been suggested in order to optimization and simulation of operation of the reservoirs. The latest method used in this field, based on Pareto Front is multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II. In this paper, NSGA-II multi-objective genetic algorithm was used to solve the proposed multi-objective optimization model for two-reservoir system of Ostoor and Pirtaghi dams in Ghezel Ozan catchment. The aims of the study are to maximize revenue from the sale of energy produced by power plants and also flood control storage volume of the reservoir under study in wet months in order to control probable flood. The system consists of two consecutive reservoirs on Ghezel Ozan River which in this model, based on a certain amount of water released from the plant during the project (decision variables), the most appropriate model will be obtained for reservoir operation of dams, storage volume of the reservoir for flood control, The optimal allocation to power plants and finally revenue from the sale of energy produced. The final results of the problem have provided several optimal ways which are not superior to each other (set of Pareto optimal solutions). The decision maker is able to find the best answer by considering the situations of the present problem and by applying different methods of deciding.

Research paper thumbnail of Optimization of Multiple and Multipurpose Reservoir System Operations by Using Matrix Structure (Case Study: Karun and Dez Reservoir Dams

Optimal operation of water resources in multiple and multipurpose reservoirs is very complicated.... more Optimal operation of water resources in multiple and multipurpose reservoirs is very complicated. This is because of the number of dams, each dam's location (Series and parallel), conflict in objectives and the stochastic nature of the inflow of water in the system. In this paper, performance optimization of the system of Karun and Dez reservoir dams have been studied and investigated with the purposes of hydroelectric energy generation and providing water demand in 6 dams. On the Karun River, 5 dams have been built in the series arrangements, and the Dez dam has been built parallel to those 5 dams. One of the main achievements in this research is the implementation of the structure of production of hydroelectric energy as a function of matrix in MATLAB software. The results show that the role of objective function structure for generating hydroelectric energy in weighting method algorithm is more important than water supply. Nonetheless by implementing ε-constraint method algorithm, we can both increase hydroelectric power generation and supply around 85% of agricultural and industrial demands.

Research paper thumbnail of Simulation of Karun River Reservoirs to Maximize Hydroelectric Power Generation

Water resource system planners have always regarded Karun river system very important as the Iran... more Water resource system planners have always regarded Karun river system very important as the Iran's largest hydropower potential. Topography of the river basin before entering the Khuzestan plain has created very suitable sites for the construction of reservoir dams for hydroelectric energy production. In this research, we studied systematic and integrated approach of multi reservoir systems by using Mike Basin Model in singular and integrated scenarios. The results obtained from 11 dams in the Karun watershed show that the firm energy in the systematic and integrated mode of operation is more than or equal to single operations in all powerhouses. This is true about the total amount of energy produced as well, but in some cases such as Powerhouse of Khersan 2 and Karun 4, the total amount of producing energy is slightly lower than the previous mode (less than 1%), despite dramatically increasing of energy produced in the system due to severe decreasing secondary energy.

Research paper thumbnail of An investigation into the qualitative and quantitative effects of climate change on rivers in Iran

The climate change phenomenon has had a negative effect on agriculture, environment and different... more The climate change phenomenon has had a negative effect on agriculture, environment and different water resource systems, especially in rivers due its impact on climatic factors such as rainfall, temperature and solar radiation. Ignoring climate change studies in the hydraulic systems designs will cause severe implications. Even a minor change in hydraulic variables will lead to tangible changes in the water resources system operation. Therefore, the effects of climate change on rivers have been briefly studied with a conceptual point of view.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluating the Suspended Sediment of Mahabad Dam Using Statistical Methods

Dam construction is one of the methods for storing surface water. Estimating the service life and... more Dam construction is one of the methods for storing surface water. Estimating the service life and economic efficiency of dam is one of the most important cases in estimating the design of it. The most important problem that threatens the useful life of the dam is input sediment to reservoir. Life expectancy of a dam reservoir is measured with respect to the incoming sediments. Estimation of suspended sediment in rivers plays an important role in estimating the useful life of dams. Many methods such as statistical methods USBR (United States Bureau of Reclamation) and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and moderate categories method are used to measure suspended. In this research the mentioned statistical and some other methods are used in Mahabad dam. By using sediment volume and the estimated flow rate Sediment loads is measured at different times in this method and its accuracy is estimated by correlation coefficient. The gained results show that the sedimentation estimates by using USBR and FAO with two correlation curves methods are useful and have more correlation coefficient.

Research paper thumbnail of Comparison of the SDSM and LARS-WG weather generators in Modeling of Climate Change in Golestan Province of Iran

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydro systems could be one of... more The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydro systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying the potential climate change and its impacts on water resources is necessary. The purpose of this paper is to predict the climate change based on the General Circulation Models (GCM), by applying two weather generators, namely SDSM and LARS-WG, at the Golestan province of Iran, in the period of 2011-2040 and compare their Result for a variety of different weather characteristics of the observed and synthetic weather data such as, the lengths of wet and dry series, the distribution of precipitation and Temperature. After modeling different Result obtained from SDSM and LARS-WG Models, will be compare to select the best climate change model for the case study.

Research paper thumbnail of EVALUATION OF DROUGHT CHANGES OF ISFAHAN CITY BASED ON THE BEST FITTED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

Generally, in arid and semi-arid region due to climatic conditions, a good match between conventi... more Generally, in arid and semi-arid region due to climatic conditions, a good match between conventional agriculture, soil and water conditions as well. Personal experiences of rural and old traditions teaches them how to avoid minor changes in environmental conditions of drought risks. In this study, the monthly rainfall statistical period 1951 to 2005 for Isfahan synoptic stations were used. Climate of the mentioned area is dry, according to climate Domarten Climagram. By choosing the best fitted distribution function basis of statistics Kolmogrov-Smirnov, the cumulative probability values were calculated and SPI values were corrected accordingly. The monthly scale results showed that in the months of June, July, August and September can be used Gamma function, but for the other months, the greatest difference between the results of the Gamma distribution with the best distribution in the frequency of droughts classes, can be seen in December. Also, the results showed that in addition to the frequency, the intensity values of drought is significant difference. It is often recommended that the default SPI index (Gamma) is not used. It should be noted that in the years studied, 1955 and 2000, respectively, the year was as wet and dry.

Research paper thumbnail of A STATISTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST CITED ISI PAPERS IN THE FIELD OF RESERVOIR OPERATION

Research has always been a tremendous role in the development of in theory and applied issues. Th... more Research has always been a tremendous role in the development of in theory and applied issues. These developments have been reflected in many scientific papers. This paper aims to identify the best papers in the field of optimal reservoir operation. The method used in this research is reviewing of ISI papers taken from the Web of Science. In this regard, 579 papers have been found between 1980 and 2014 that the two words " Reservoir " and " Operation " have been seen in their titles. In fact, the results of this statistical study introduce the top researchers, journals and the leading countries in the field of optimal reservoir operation. The large number of publications in this field indicates that the problem of water resources cannot be solved only by the construction of the dam and it needs more study on optimal operation of water resources.

Research paper thumbnail of Floodplain Zoning Simulation by Using HEC-RAS and CCHE2D Models in the Sungai Maka River

River flooding causes several human and financial casualties. It is necessary to perform research... more River flooding causes several human and financial casualties. It is necessary to perform research studies and implement subsequent actions consistent with the nature of the river. In order to reduce flood damage, floodplain zoning maps and river cross-sectional boundaries are important to nonstructural measures in planning and optimizing utilization of the areas around the river. Due to the complex behavior of the rivers during floods, computer modeling is the most efficient tool with the least possible cost to study and simulate the behavior of the rivers. In this study, one-dimensional model Hydrologic Engineering Centers—River Analysis System and two-dimensional model CCHE2D were used to simulate the flood zoning in the Sungai Maka district in Kelantan state, Malaysia. The results of these two models in most sections approximately match. Most differences in the results were in the shape of the river.

Research paper thumbnail of A Statistical Review of Top Cited ISI Papers Regarding the Different Effects of Climate Change on Rivers

Since, even a minor change in hydraulic variables will lead to tangible changes in water resource... more Since, even a minor change in hydraulic variables will lead to tangible changes in water resources system operation, therefore, the effects of climate change on rivers were briefly considered with a conceptual look. In the next step, because the researches in the form of paper have considerably been useful in development and enhancement of climate change effect on rivers, a statistical overview was made superior papers published in this field. Papers related to the current subject have been published in the knowledge database (web of science) of institute of scientific information (ISI) from 1980- 2014. Among all the articles that have been printed in this relation, (N = 763), 100 top papers were classified and considered with the highest number of identifying references and in different statistical opinions such as the number of references, the distribution of time and place, the introduction of top journals and Etc. The results reveal that in the field of climate changes impact, the researchers have considerably focused on respectively the river hydrology (40%), water resources and ecosystem (25%), surface and subsurface water resources (17%), sedimentation and erosion (12%) and the quality of the River (6%).

Research paper thumbnail of Developing Optimal Reservoir Operation for Multiple and Multipurpose Reservoirs Using Mathematical Programming

Over the last decades, the increasing water demand has caused a number of problems, to which rese... more Over the last decades, the increasing water demand has caused a number of problems, to which reservoir operation optimization has been suggested as one of the best solutions. In this research, a model based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP) technique is developed for the systematic operation of multi-reservoirs that are used to cater for the different needs of the Tehran-Karaj plain. These reservoirs include Laar, Latian, and Karaj dams. The system configuration was accomplished through the nodes and arcs of the network flow model approach and system component implementation including sources, consumption, junctions, and the physical and hydraulic relationship between them. The following were performed via comprehensive developed software: system
configuration, objective function and constraints formulation, linearization, determining penalty values, and setting priorities for each node and arc in the system. A comparison between the MILP developed model’s results against the periodic data shows
21.7% less overflow, 11.6% more outflow, and 15.9% more reservoir storage, respectively. The outcome of theMILP-based modeling indicates superior performance to the historical period.

Research paper thumbnail of Application of different statistical methods to recover missing rainfall data in the Klang River Catchment

Most of hydrological studies are based on statistical science. The first step in water project en... more Most of hydrological studies are based on
statistical science. The first step in water project engineering
studies, agricultural development plans and such like is to
use of correct data and information. However, because of
various reasons, there are several gaps in available data. In
this study, for finding missing value (545 records) in our
data, we used the daily data from five pluviometry stations in
the Klang river basin between 2005 to 2015. Statistical
methods used in this study were the linear interpolation,
linear regression, trendline command in Excel software and
EM method in SPSS. The results obtained from this research
showed that the best method for singular missing data is a
linear interpolation method and the fastest way to fill the
missing gaps was the use of the SPSS software. Also, if the
aim is to find the relationship between variables and
determine the priorities, the regression method is
recommended.

Research paper thumbnail of Prediction of Water Level And Salinity of Lakes By using Artificial Neural Networks, Case Study: Lake Uremia

Urmia Lake is the 20st largest lake in the world and the second salt lake of the World according ... more Urmia Lake is the 20st largest lake in the world and the second salt lake of the World according to its high salinity. This lake is considered as an evacuation place and final destination of some important rivers of northwest of Iran. This lake is also very important because of its effects on economic and environment of region. In recent years because of decrease of rainfall and drought, unessential use of agricultural water, evaporation on water surface of lake, bracing of water surface flows by dams in upstream of rivers and digging of wells near the lake, water surface level of lake has decreased and salinity of water of the lake has increased very much. Considering the importance of water surface level and salinity of lake, study on these items through environmental approach play important role for decision making. It is necessary to predict water level and salinity of Urmia Lake for future programming to prevent, continue of this critical situation. In this research water level and salinity of Urmia Lake have been analyzed and predicted by using artificial neural networks and statistical software. Obtained results from this research showed that water level of Urmia Lake is predicted very well. Also prediction of salinity has shown acceptable results. Calculation of water level and salinity of this lake in a same time prediction mode is another research that has been investigated in this study.

Research paper thumbnail of Preliminary Review of the Optimal Operation of Reservoir Systems using Common Calculation Methods

Operation of reservoirs is one of the most important and complicated issues in usage of dams that... more Operation of reservoirs is one of the most important and complicated issues in usage of dams that the designers have had challenges with for long. One of the most important solutions is choosing the best study method as well as utilizing the best engineering techniques. By using these methods and techniques, not only the operational method is studied, but also the capacity of reservoir is estimated. The most important methods in determining the capacity of reservoir are: critical period method (mass curve, sequent peak method, working table), optimization methods or system engineering techniques (linear programming, dynamic programming) and simulation method. Optimization is a method that should result in the best answer to a problem based on given purpose and limitations defined as mathematical functions. In this method, the design parameters such as the height of the dam could be estimated using mathematical models. It is also possible to evaluate the approximate operation of reservoir, based on the dam height. This paper aims at investigating the process operational studies of reservoirs. Also, it investigates the potentialities as well as the limitations of computational methods of reservoir functions in simulation and optimization methods. Finally, necessary guides in order to choose a suitable method as well as evaluating the results will be suggested.

Research paper thumbnail of Investigate the Potential and Limitations of Meta-heuristics Algorithms Applied in Reservoir Operation Systems

Nowadays, we are faced with the complex of process in water resource management. The complexity o... more Nowadays, we are faced with the complex of process in water resource management. The complexity of water resources system makes the analysis of water resources investment alternatives difficult and complex. This leads to increase the application of systems analysis techniques. Optimization makes it possible to do exact mathematical modeling in a process, so by applying mathematical programming methods we will be able to optimize our models. Recently approximation algorithms are developed to combine the basic principles of heuristic algorithms to reach an efficient method in feasible region. These methods are known as meta-heuristic methods. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Simulated Annealing (SA), Tabu Search (TS) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are examples of these methods. The mathematical programming has two main problems. Sometimes they consider local optima points as global optimum points, and each of the mentioned methods is used for certain issues. In these studies the main focus is on developing tools to assist decision making and planning of water resources. The tools of systems analysis are varied in their usefulness. The approach and appropriate techniques naturally vary from problem to problem. It depends on the characteristics, i.e., the objective, scope of planning, state of development of system, the space and time of planning process. Our goal in this paper is to explain some advantages and disadvantages of meta-heuristic methods like genetic algorithm and simulated annealing algorithm in planning, limitations, and applications. Furthermore, we aim to note some points to apply the most ideal of using the programming methods in water resources systems optimization.

Research paper thumbnail of Multiple imputation for Hydrological missing data by using a regression method (Klang river basin)

Rainfall amounts and water surface elevation are considered as one of the most important climatic... more Rainfall amounts and water surface elevation are considered as one of the most important climatic parameters. Because these two parameters will have a direct impact on water resources management decisions such as meet the water needs and prevent flooding. But in some cases, for some reason all time series data are not fully recorded. To fill the gaps in the data, several interpolation methods currently used. One of these methods is regression analysis as a statistical method. By using regression, we can determine the mathematical relationship coefficients between inputs and outputs. By achieving the equation, we can obtain the unknown quantities. In this research, the daily data between 2005 to 2015 for 5 Rain-gauge stations and 3 elevation measurement of water surface stations in the Klang River Basin were used. The main goal was to find the missing value of the water level in the mentioned three stations by rainfall and water level data. To evaluate the obtained results, Multiple R, R2, and Standard Error were used. The results indicate that the standard error in normalized data was less than the regular data. Multiple r values for the Klang at Taman Sri Muda1, Klang at Jam, Sulaiman, WP and Klang at Emp Genting Klang, WP are 0.35, 0.42 and 0.28, respectively.

Research paper thumbnail of Introduction to linear programming as a popular tool in optimal reservoir operation, a Review

Water is a rare and vital natural resource for all biological phenomena and human activities that... more Water is a rare and vital natural resource for all biological phenomena and human activities that continuously is needed to be known at any time and place. Taking into the burgeoning growth of population and consequently increasing human needs, the limitation of water resources is a considerable challenge for human. Moreover, asymmetrical distribution of rain time and location in most countries has caused that the
water resources management and programming be considered. In order to resolve this problem, researchers are trying to use some techniques in relation with programming
and management for a long time. Most of practical and applied problems can be modeled as a linear programming problem regarding all intrinsic complexities. The mentioned reason and also presence of different solving software of linear programming problems have caused that linear programming be used as one of the most practical methods in the field of dam operation for years. In this research, we introduce
optimal operation problems of reservoirs by using linear programming techniques and discuss about them. Also, objective and multi objective models were introduced by
using some questions. Finally, some popular methods in the field of modeling such problems are introduced.

Research paper thumbnail of A Comparison between the Amount of Reservoir Sediment Load Prediction during Design Period and the Operational Period

Sedimentation of dams in Iran is an important issue. Often the sedimentation prediction is done i... more Sedimentation of dams in Iran is an important issue. Often the sedimentation prediction is done in different ways in dams’ design. Sometimes due to lack of data of sedimentation, the calculations lead to false results. To compare the predictions made as to whether the design is correct or not a method called Bathymetry is being used to determine the amount of sediment deposited in the reservoir in a certain period of time. The comparison between the above methods can determine whether the rate of deposition matches the anticipated design time or not? Therefore, in this paper, deposition rate obtained through Bathymetry was compared to the amount of anticipated deposition at design time in Karaj and Latian dams. So we used 40 to 45 years of operation period, which is done by echo sounder system, with the gained results during designing of Karaj dam and Latian dam. Furthermore, sedimentation rate and volume reduction percentage are evaluated in these two dams and the results were analyzed for determining sedimentation rate and also to study whether the total sediment volume during the reservoir useful life coincides calculations during designing. In the end, it showed that the Area Increment Method for the mentioned dams was not an appropriate and adequate method to distribute sediments. The data obtained by sedimentation through Bathymetry findings can be a model for other dams in Iran and worldwide.

Research paper thumbnail of INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SEASONALIZATION BASED ON STATISTICAL PARAMETERS IN NORMALIZING, MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLOW TIME SERIES

To solve many problems such as estimation of average monthly river inflow, it is necessary to con... more To solve many problems such as estimation of average monthly river inflow, it is necessary to consider a time-dependent phenomenon which is involved in several factors. So, a stochastic model has to be obtained to calculate the probability of a future amount of inflow. Studying of river behavior and the ability to forecast the future events is a prerequisite for the preparation of optimization models. In the present study, methods for creating, diagnosis and assessing the rate of compatibility with seasonal ARIMA time series models have been provided. It is also supposed that the seasonal classification based on their statistical parameter similarities, could lead to a better normalized series in comparison to the other transformation methods. The discussed methods are suitable for continuous systems. The ARIMA method was used to predict the future amounts of the inflow into the Karaj reservoir by using its previous and present values. For implementing models, first, it is necessary to normalize the observed data with a logical transformation method considering seasonalization. The results showed that the best fitted model is an annual series ARIMA (1, 0, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 with logarithmic transformation for forecasting models. It is also concluded that the 12 month forecast of inflow is better than 24 months in terms of the forecasted values.

Research paper thumbnail of STAGE-DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIP IN TIDAL RIVERS FOR TIDAL FLOOD CONDITION

reach is a suitable tool for the tidal flood risk and environmental management and design for riv... more reach is a suitable tool for the tidal flood risk and environmental management and design for rivers that are located in coastal area. The reaches of the river that affected by river flow and tidal wave are called as tidal limit and water level in this limit is a function of flood discharge and water level in upstream and downstream, respectively. In tidal limit, tidal waves propagate along the river to the upstream and combination of these waves and upstream flood discharge leads to an increase in water level. This mechanism increases flood plain limit and potential of damage and the risk. In this study, the reach between Ahvaz and Khorramshahr in Karun River in Iran is selected as case study and different linear models for the prediction of water level in tidal flood condition are investigated. Results show that the simple linear regression is not acceptable because of its variable variance of residuals. Transformed nonlinear models that are a form of linear models are used for modeling too. Two equations (Logarithmic and Power) with improved coefficient of determination, relatively constant variance and normal distribution of residuals of models are concluded from detailed analysis. These selected models are used for acceptability of these models considering their simplicity.

Research paper thumbnail of OPTIMAL OPERATION OF MULTIPLE AND MULTI PURPOSE RESERVOIRS SYSTEMS USING NON-DOMINATED SORTING GENETIC ALGORITHM (NSGA-II)

Iran is considered an arid country with rainfall less than a third of the average rainfall in the... more Iran is considered an arid country with rainfall less than a third of the average rainfall in the world. In these areas, one of the strategies to cope with water shortages and drought is to use optimal operation models. Several studies have been conducted in this area and a variety of models have been suggested in order to optimization and simulation of operation of the reservoirs. The latest method used in this field, based on Pareto Front is multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II. In this paper, NSGA-II multi-objective genetic algorithm was used to solve the proposed multi-objective optimization model for two-reservoir system of Ostoor and Pirtaghi dams in Ghezel Ozan catchment. The aims of the study are to maximize revenue from the sale of energy produced by power plants and also flood control storage volume of the reservoir under study in wet months in order to control probable flood. The system consists of two consecutive reservoirs on Ghezel Ozan River which in this model, based on a certain amount of water released from the plant during the project (decision variables), the most appropriate model will be obtained for reservoir operation of dams, storage volume of the reservoir for flood control, The optimal allocation to power plants and finally revenue from the sale of energy produced. The final results of the problem have provided several optimal ways which are not superior to each other (set of Pareto optimal solutions). The decision maker is able to find the best answer by considering the situations of the present problem and by applying different methods of deciding.

Research paper thumbnail of Optimization of Multiple and Multipurpose Reservoir System Operations by Using Matrix Structure (Case Study: Karun and Dez Reservoir Dams

Optimal operation of water resources in multiple and multipurpose reservoirs is very complicated.... more Optimal operation of water resources in multiple and multipurpose reservoirs is very complicated. This is because of the number of dams, each dam's location (Series and parallel), conflict in objectives and the stochastic nature of the inflow of water in the system. In this paper, performance optimization of the system of Karun and Dez reservoir dams have been studied and investigated with the purposes of hydroelectric energy generation and providing water demand in 6 dams. On the Karun River, 5 dams have been built in the series arrangements, and the Dez dam has been built parallel to those 5 dams. One of the main achievements in this research is the implementation of the structure of production of hydroelectric energy as a function of matrix in MATLAB software. The results show that the role of objective function structure for generating hydroelectric energy in weighting method algorithm is more important than water supply. Nonetheless by implementing ε-constraint method algorithm, we can both increase hydroelectric power generation and supply around 85% of agricultural and industrial demands.

Research paper thumbnail of Simulation of Karun River Reservoirs to Maximize Hydroelectric Power Generation

Water resource system planners have always regarded Karun river system very important as the Iran... more Water resource system planners have always regarded Karun river system very important as the Iran's largest hydropower potential. Topography of the river basin before entering the Khuzestan plain has created very suitable sites for the construction of reservoir dams for hydroelectric energy production. In this research, we studied systematic and integrated approach of multi reservoir systems by using Mike Basin Model in singular and integrated scenarios. The results obtained from 11 dams in the Karun watershed show that the firm energy in the systematic and integrated mode of operation is more than or equal to single operations in all powerhouses. This is true about the total amount of energy produced as well, but in some cases such as Powerhouse of Khersan 2 and Karun 4, the total amount of producing energy is slightly lower than the previous mode (less than 1%), despite dramatically increasing of energy produced in the system due to severe decreasing secondary energy.

Research paper thumbnail of An investigation into the qualitative and quantitative effects of climate change on rivers in Iran

The climate change phenomenon has had a negative effect on agriculture, environment and different... more The climate change phenomenon has had a negative effect on agriculture, environment and different water resource systems, especially in rivers due its impact on climatic factors such as rainfall, temperature and solar radiation. Ignoring climate change studies in the hydraulic systems designs will cause severe implications. Even a minor change in hydraulic variables will lead to tangible changes in the water resources system operation. Therefore, the effects of climate change on rivers have been briefly studied with a conceptual point of view.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluating the Suspended Sediment of Mahabad Dam Using Statistical Methods

Dam construction is one of the methods for storing surface water. Estimating the service life and... more Dam construction is one of the methods for storing surface water. Estimating the service life and economic efficiency of dam is one of the most important cases in estimating the design of it. The most important problem that threatens the useful life of the dam is input sediment to reservoir. Life expectancy of a dam reservoir is measured with respect to the incoming sediments. Estimation of suspended sediment in rivers plays an important role in estimating the useful life of dams. Many methods such as statistical methods USBR (United States Bureau of Reclamation) and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and moderate categories method are used to measure suspended. In this research the mentioned statistical and some other methods are used in Mahabad dam. By using sediment volume and the estimated flow rate Sediment loads is measured at different times in this method and its accuracy is estimated by correlation coefficient. The gained results show that the sedimentation estimates by using USBR and FAO with two correlation curves methods are useful and have more correlation coefficient.

Research paper thumbnail of Comparison of the SDSM and LARS-WG weather generators in Modeling of Climate Change in Golestan Province of Iran

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydro systems could be one of... more The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydro systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying the potential climate change and its impacts on water resources is necessary. The purpose of this paper is to predict the climate change based on the General Circulation Models (GCM), by applying two weather generators, namely SDSM and LARS-WG, at the Golestan province of Iran, in the period of 2011-2040 and compare their Result for a variety of different weather characteristics of the observed and synthetic weather data such as, the lengths of wet and dry series, the distribution of precipitation and Temperature. After modeling different Result obtained from SDSM and LARS-WG Models, will be compare to select the best climate change model for the case study.

Research paper thumbnail of EVALUATION OF DROUGHT CHANGES OF ISFAHAN CITY BASED ON THE BEST FITTED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

Generally, in arid and semi-arid region due to climatic conditions, a good match between conventi... more Generally, in arid and semi-arid region due to climatic conditions, a good match between conventional agriculture, soil and water conditions as well. Personal experiences of rural and old traditions teaches them how to avoid minor changes in environmental conditions of drought risks. In this study, the monthly rainfall statistical period 1951 to 2005 for Isfahan synoptic stations were used. Climate of the mentioned area is dry, according to climate Domarten Climagram. By choosing the best fitted distribution function basis of statistics Kolmogrov-Smirnov, the cumulative probability values were calculated and SPI values were corrected accordingly. The monthly scale results showed that in the months of June, July, August and September can be used Gamma function, but for the other months, the greatest difference between the results of the Gamma distribution with the best distribution in the frequency of droughts classes, can be seen in December. Also, the results showed that in addition to the frequency, the intensity values of drought is significant difference. It is often recommended that the default SPI index (Gamma) is not used. It should be noted that in the years studied, 1955 and 2000, respectively, the year was as wet and dry.

Research paper thumbnail of A STATISTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST CITED ISI PAPERS IN THE FIELD OF RESERVOIR OPERATION

Research has always been a tremendous role in the development of in theory and applied issues. Th... more Research has always been a tremendous role in the development of in theory and applied issues. These developments have been reflected in many scientific papers. This paper aims to identify the best papers in the field of optimal reservoir operation. The method used in this research is reviewing of ISI papers taken from the Web of Science. In this regard, 579 papers have been found between 1980 and 2014 that the two words " Reservoir " and " Operation " have been seen in their titles. In fact, the results of this statistical study introduce the top researchers, journals and the leading countries in the field of optimal reservoir operation. The large number of publications in this field indicates that the problem of water resources cannot be solved only by the construction of the dam and it needs more study on optimal operation of water resources.

Research paper thumbnail of Floodplain Zoning Simulation by Using HEC-RAS and CCHE2D Models in the Sungai Maka River

River flooding causes several human and financial casualties. It is necessary to perform research... more River flooding causes several human and financial casualties. It is necessary to perform research studies and implement subsequent actions consistent with the nature of the river. In order to reduce flood damage, floodplain zoning maps and river cross-sectional boundaries are important to nonstructural measures in planning and optimizing utilization of the areas around the river. Due to the complex behavior of the rivers during floods, computer modeling is the most efficient tool with the least possible cost to study and simulate the behavior of the rivers. In this study, one-dimensional model Hydrologic Engineering Centers—River Analysis System and two-dimensional model CCHE2D were used to simulate the flood zoning in the Sungai Maka district in Kelantan state, Malaysia. The results of these two models in most sections approximately match. Most differences in the results were in the shape of the river.

Research paper thumbnail of A Statistical Review of Top Cited ISI Papers Regarding the Different Effects of Climate Change on Rivers

Since, even a minor change in hydraulic variables will lead to tangible changes in water resource... more Since, even a minor change in hydraulic variables will lead to tangible changes in water resources system operation, therefore, the effects of climate change on rivers were briefly considered with a conceptual look. In the next step, because the researches in the form of paper have considerably been useful in development and enhancement of climate change effect on rivers, a statistical overview was made superior papers published in this field. Papers related to the current subject have been published in the knowledge database (web of science) of institute of scientific information (ISI) from 1980- 2014. Among all the articles that have been printed in this relation, (N = 763), 100 top papers were classified and considered with the highest number of identifying references and in different statistical opinions such as the number of references, the distribution of time and place, the introduction of top journals and Etc. The results reveal that in the field of climate changes impact, the researchers have considerably focused on respectively the river hydrology (40%), water resources and ecosystem (25%), surface and subsurface water resources (17%), sedimentation and erosion (12%) and the quality of the River (6%).

Research paper thumbnail of Developing Optimal Reservoir Operation for Multiple and Multipurpose Reservoirs Using Mathematical Programming

Over the last decades, the increasing water demand has caused a number of problems, to which rese... more Over the last decades, the increasing water demand has caused a number of problems, to which reservoir operation optimization has been suggested as one of the best solutions. In this research, a model based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP) technique is developed for the systematic operation of multi-reservoirs that are used to cater for the different needs of the Tehran-Karaj plain. These reservoirs include Laar, Latian, and Karaj dams. The system configuration was accomplished through the nodes and arcs of the network flow model approach and system component implementation including sources, consumption, junctions, and the physical and hydraulic relationship between them. The following were performed via comprehensive developed software: system
configuration, objective function and constraints formulation, linearization, determining penalty values, and setting priorities for each node and arc in the system. A comparison between the MILP developed model’s results against the periodic data shows
21.7% less overflow, 11.6% more outflow, and 15.9% more reservoir storage, respectively. The outcome of theMILP-based modeling indicates superior performance to the historical period.

Research paper thumbnail of Application of different statistical methods to recover missing rainfall data in the Klang River Catchment

Most of hydrological studies are based on statistical science. The first step in water project en... more Most of hydrological studies are based on
statistical science. The first step in water project engineering
studies, agricultural development plans and such like is to
use of correct data and information. However, because of
various reasons, there are several gaps in available data. In
this study, for finding missing value (545 records) in our
data, we used the daily data from five pluviometry stations in
the Klang river basin between 2005 to 2015. Statistical
methods used in this study were the linear interpolation,
linear regression, trendline command in Excel software and
EM method in SPSS. The results obtained from this research
showed that the best method for singular missing data is a
linear interpolation method and the fastest way to fill the
missing gaps was the use of the SPSS software. Also, if the
aim is to find the relationship between variables and
determine the priorities, the regression method is
recommended.

Research paper thumbnail of Prediction of Water Level And Salinity of Lakes By using Artificial Neural Networks, Case Study: Lake Uremia

Urmia Lake is the 20st largest lake in the world and the second salt lake of the World according ... more Urmia Lake is the 20st largest lake in the world and the second salt lake of the World according to its high salinity. This lake is considered as an evacuation place and final destination of some important rivers of northwest of Iran. This lake is also very important because of its effects on economic and environment of region. In recent years because of decrease of rainfall and drought, unessential use of agricultural water, evaporation on water surface of lake, bracing of water surface flows by dams in upstream of rivers and digging of wells near the lake, water surface level of lake has decreased and salinity of water of the lake has increased very much. Considering the importance of water surface level and salinity of lake, study on these items through environmental approach play important role for decision making. It is necessary to predict water level and salinity of Urmia Lake for future programming to prevent, continue of this critical situation. In this research water level and salinity of Urmia Lake have been analyzed and predicted by using artificial neural networks and statistical software. Obtained results from this research showed that water level of Urmia Lake is predicted very well. Also prediction of salinity has shown acceptable results. Calculation of water level and salinity of this lake in a same time prediction mode is another research that has been investigated in this study.

Research paper thumbnail of Preliminary Review of the Optimal Operation of Reservoir Systems using Common Calculation Methods

Operation of reservoirs is one of the most important and complicated issues in usage of dams that... more Operation of reservoirs is one of the most important and complicated issues in usage of dams that the designers have had challenges with for long. One of the most important solutions is choosing the best study method as well as utilizing the best engineering techniques. By using these methods and techniques, not only the operational method is studied, but also the capacity of reservoir is estimated. The most important methods in determining the capacity of reservoir are: critical period method (mass curve, sequent peak method, working table), optimization methods or system engineering techniques (linear programming, dynamic programming) and simulation method. Optimization is a method that should result in the best answer to a problem based on given purpose and limitations defined as mathematical functions. In this method, the design parameters such as the height of the dam could be estimated using mathematical models. It is also possible to evaluate the approximate operation of reservoir, based on the dam height. This paper aims at investigating the process operational studies of reservoirs. Also, it investigates the potentialities as well as the limitations of computational methods of reservoir functions in simulation and optimization methods. Finally, necessary guides in order to choose a suitable method as well as evaluating the results will be suggested.

Research paper thumbnail of Investigate the Potential and Limitations of Meta-heuristics Algorithms Applied in Reservoir Operation Systems

Nowadays, we are faced with the complex of process in water resource management. The complexity o... more Nowadays, we are faced with the complex of process in water resource management. The complexity of water resources system makes the analysis of water resources investment alternatives difficult and complex. This leads to increase the application of systems analysis techniques. Optimization makes it possible to do exact mathematical modeling in a process, so by applying mathematical programming methods we will be able to optimize our models. Recently approximation algorithms are developed to combine the basic principles of heuristic algorithms to reach an efficient method in feasible region. These methods are known as meta-heuristic methods. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Simulated Annealing (SA), Tabu Search (TS) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are examples of these methods. The mathematical programming has two main problems. Sometimes they consider local optima points as global optimum points, and each of the mentioned methods is used for certain issues. In these studies the main focus is on developing tools to assist decision making and planning of water resources. The tools of systems analysis are varied in their usefulness. The approach and appropriate techniques naturally vary from problem to problem. It depends on the characteristics, i.e., the objective, scope of planning, state of development of system, the space and time of planning process. Our goal in this paper is to explain some advantages and disadvantages of meta-heuristic methods like genetic algorithm and simulated annealing algorithm in planning, limitations, and applications. Furthermore, we aim to note some points to apply the most ideal of using the programming methods in water resources systems optimization.

Research paper thumbnail of Multiple imputation for Hydrological missing data by using a regression method (Klang river basin)

Rainfall amounts and water surface elevation are considered as one of the most important climatic... more Rainfall amounts and water surface elevation are considered as one of the most important climatic parameters. Because these two parameters will have a direct impact on water resources management decisions such as meet the water needs and prevent flooding. But in some cases, for some reason all time series data are not fully recorded. To fill the gaps in the data, several interpolation methods currently used. One of these methods is regression analysis as a statistical method. By using regression, we can determine the mathematical relationship coefficients between inputs and outputs. By achieving the equation, we can obtain the unknown quantities. In this research, the daily data between 2005 to 2015 for 5 Rain-gauge stations and 3 elevation measurement of water surface stations in the Klang River Basin were used. The main goal was to find the missing value of the water level in the mentioned three stations by rainfall and water level data. To evaluate the obtained results, Multiple R, R2, and Standard Error were used. The results indicate that the standard error in normalized data was less than the regular data. Multiple r values for the Klang at Taman Sri Muda1, Klang at Jam, Sulaiman, WP and Klang at Emp Genting Klang, WP are 0.35, 0.42 and 0.28, respectively.

Research paper thumbnail of Introduction to linear programming as a popular tool in optimal reservoir operation, a Review

Water is a rare and vital natural resource for all biological phenomena and human activities that... more Water is a rare and vital natural resource for all biological phenomena and human activities that continuously is needed to be known at any time and place. Taking into the burgeoning growth of population and consequently increasing human needs, the limitation of water resources is a considerable challenge for human. Moreover, asymmetrical distribution of rain time and location in most countries has caused that the
water resources management and programming be considered. In order to resolve this problem, researchers are trying to use some techniques in relation with programming
and management for a long time. Most of practical and applied problems can be modeled as a linear programming problem regarding all intrinsic complexities. The mentioned reason and also presence of different solving software of linear programming problems have caused that linear programming be used as one of the most practical methods in the field of dam operation for years. In this research, we introduce
optimal operation problems of reservoirs by using linear programming techniques and discuss about them. Also, objective and multi objective models were introduced by
using some questions. Finally, some popular methods in the field of modeling such problems are introduced.

Research paper thumbnail of Direct and Indirect Effects of Drought using the Function Analysis Systems Technique (FAST) Diagram

Human lives have always been subject to different natural risks and dangers throughout the histor... more Human lives have always been subject to different natural risks and dangers throughout the history all over the world. Drought, meanwhile, is strikingly common and of high importance of all. Drought is a worldwide phenomenon, which could happen everywhere throughout the world and lead to major economic, social as well as environmental losses and costs.
Drought has two effects, direct and indirect. Agricultural products decrease, deforestation, risk of fire, water level drop, and wildlife losses could be some impacts of drought. The result of direct effects would be indirect effects. For instance, the reduction of agricultural products and fertility of forests and grasslands could possibly decrease the income of farmers and increase the prices of food products, wood, unemployment, crime as well as increasing the immigration. In general the effects of drought could be divided into economical, environmental and social impacts.
As graphical display contributes largely to the better understanding of the problem, efforts have been made to take advantage of the technique in this study. One of the well-known graphical technique is FAST (Functional Analysis Systems Technique) diagram. The FAST diagram is one of the important tools in value engineering in analyzing and recognizing of the problem. In addition, as this graph depicts the relationship of system functions graphically, contributes largely in solving the system problems as well as improving the system efficiency.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of drought based on this diagram, having defined the application as well as plotting the FAST diagram. In the end, special emphasis will be put on the environment using this diagram.