Ettore Gallo | The New School (original) (raw)
Papers by Ettore Gallo
Revista de Economia
The matter of the 'original sin', the inability to borrow abroad in domestic currency, came to th... more The matter of the 'original sin', the inability to borrow abroad in domestic currency, came to the centre of the academic discussion after the dramatic episodes in Asia, Russia and Latin America. According to this international framework, this paper is an empirical analysis of 'original sin' for six Latin American countries based on the index (OSIN3) developed by Haussmann and Panizza (2003). This paper finds that the situation for some countries have been improving reflecting a reduction of the index. This fact could be related to recent economic policies related to an 'abstinence' rather than 'redemption', an attitude seen as a response to the debt crisis. Finally, the paper focuses on possible policy alternatives that could be adopted to overcome the 'original sin' phenomenon it includes North-South and South-South cooperation and a multilateral arrangement. However, such alternatives are limited to feasibility mainly due to the turbulent political and economic scenario in the region.
In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted... more In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted rising attention, as testified by the development of the Sraffian Supermulti plier model (SSM) and the attempts to include autonomous demand in the Neo-Kaleckian model. This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and the policy conclusions of the two models in the Euro Area. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may con stitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modified Neo-Kaleckian model, leading to the convergence towards a desired rate of utilization. Furthermore, the chief diffierence between the models is recognized to be the role attached to the rate of capacity utilization in the long run. Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussio...
The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rat... more The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rate and COVID-19 infection rate. The model shows that lockdown measures can effectively reduce the infection rate, but at the cost of higher unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, hence producing waves in the unemployment rate in the absence of widespread immunity and/or vaccination. Furthermore, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation shows the dramatic effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by potential recurrent waves of COVID-19, leading to a series of W-shaped recessions that - in absence of adequate policy response - jeopardize the coming back to the normal trend in the medium run.
The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous n... more The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous nature of the degree of capacity utilization, overlooking Steindl’s and Minsky’s insights on the role of inventories and debt financing in shaping investment decisions. In order to fill this gap, this paper develops a Steindl-Minsky SFC model by including inventories, as well as firm’s deposits and debt financing into the investment function. The role of investment decisions in shaping economic growth is assessed by considering a model populated by five types of economic actors: workers, firms, rentiers, commercial banks and the central bank. First, business cycle fluctuations are investigated assuming a deterministic steady growth path in the long period, in line with recent developments in heterodox growth theory. Second, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US economy. 1 Corresponding author. Ph.D. student at the New School for Social Research. E-mail: galle264@newschool.edu 2...
Review of Political Economy
This paper seeks to capture the dynamic interaction between the epidemiological evolution of COVI... more This paper seeks to capture the dynamic interaction between the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 and its effect on the macroeconomy, in absence of widespread vaccination. We do that by building a stylized two-equations dynamical system in the COVID-19 positivity rate and the unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, thus producing waves in the two variables in the absence of widespread immunity through vaccination. Furthermore, we model the impact of the pandemicdriven unemployment shock on output, showing how the emergence of cyclical downswings could determine a L-shaped recession in the medium run, in absence of adequate stimulus policies. Moreover, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation highlights the effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by recurrent waves of COVID-19, which risk to jeopardize the coming back to the precrisis trend in the medium run.
IPE Working Paper, 2019
In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted... more In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted rising attention, as testified by the development of the Sraffian Supermulti plier model (SSM) and the attempts to include autonomous demand in the Neo-Kaleckian model. This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and the policy conclusions of the two models in the Euro Area. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may con stitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modified Neo-Kaleckian model, leading to the convergence towards a desired rate of utilization. Furthermore, the chief diffierence between the models is recognized to be the role attached to the rate of capacity utilization in the long run. Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussion outlines the short and long-run relation between autonomous demand and output, by testing both the cointegration and the direction of causality between the two with a VECM model. Moreover, the role accounted by both theories to the actual rate of capacity utilization and its discrepancies from the normal rate is empirically assessed, through a time-series estimation of the Sraffian and Neo-Kaleckian investment functions. While confirming the theoretical relation between autonomous demand and output in the long run, the results show that the dynamics of the rate of capacity utilization still plays a key role in the short-run adjustment mechanism - despite its stationary behaviour in the long term. Therefore, admitting that Keynesian results may hold even after the traverse, our work suggests to be Kaleckian in the short run and Sraffian in the long run.
Gli enti pubblici costituiscono una delle grandi categorie strutturali nelle quali si articola l'... more Gli enti pubblici costituiscono una delle grandi categorie strutturali nelle quali si articola l'organizzazione pubblica complessivamente intesa. 1 ; fanno parte del concetto di amministrazione pubblica, ma non rientrano nell'amministrazione dello Stato, tanto che sono stati anche denominati "amministrazioni parallele". L'ente pubblico si qualifica come quel particolare centro d'imputazione di interessi, dotato di personalità giuridica (con capacità giuridica e capacità d'agire) e contemporaneamente orientato alla cura concreta dell'interesse generale. Tale definizione potrebbe comunque risultare semplicistica, riducendosi a una mera definizione formale, scevra da un ricco dibattito accademico tuttora attuale e influenzato dalle fasi successive di nazionalizzazione e liberalizzazione dei vari enti. Non potendo delineare una figura univoca di ente pubblico, alcuni preferiscono definirlo partendo dal criterio base comune a tutte le definizioni pubblicistiche. In questo senso, dovrà ritenersi pubblico un ente la cui esistenza è considerata necessaria dall'ente territoriale di riferimento. 2 Questa definizione, tuttavia, essendo legata a considerazioni di più stringente carattere politico circa la necessità o meno dell'ente stesso, ci pare poco esaustiva; preferiremo pertanto la prima definizione data, ovvero quella di ente come strumento attraverso cui la P.A. esplica l'attività amministrativa.
Drafts by Ettore Gallo
NSSR Working paper, 2020
The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rat... more The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rate and COVID-19 infection rate. The model shows that lockdown measures can effectively reduce the infection rate, but at the cost of higher unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, hence producing waves in the unemployment rate in the absence of widespread immunity and/or vaccination. Furthermore, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation shows the dramatic effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by potential recurrent waves of COVID-19, leading to a series of W-shaped recessions that-in absence of adequate policy response-jeopardize the coming back to the normal trend in the medium run.
NSSR Working paper series, 2020
The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous n... more The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous nature of the degree of capacity utilization, overlooking Steindl's and Minsky's insights on the role of inventories and debt financing in shaping investment decisions. In order to fill this gap, this paper develops a Steindl-Minsky SFC model by including inventories, as well as firm's deposits and debt financing into the investment function. The role of investment decisions in shaping economic growth is assessed by considering a model populated by five types of economic actors: workers, firms, rentiers, commercial banks and the central bank. First, business cycle fluctuations are investigated assuming a deterministic steady growth path in the long period, in line with recent developments in heterodox growth theory. Second, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US economy.
This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and policy conclusions of the Sra an Superm... more This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and policy conclusions of the Sra an Supermultiplier model (SSM) and the modified Neo-Kaleckian model after the inclusion of autonomous components of aggregate demand. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may constitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modified Neo-Kaleckian model. Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussion outlines the short and long-run relation between autonomous demand and output, by testing cointegration and causality with a VECM model. Moreover, the role accounted by both theories to the rate of capacity utilization is empirically assessed, through a time-series estimation of the Sraffian and Neo-Kaleckian investment functions. While confirming the theoretical relation between autonomous demand and output in the long run, the results show that capacity utilization still plays a key role in the short-run adjustment mechanism. Therefore, admitting that Keynesian results may hold even after the traverse, our work suggests to be Kaleckian in the short run and Sraffian in the long run.
Revista de Economia
The matter of the 'original sin', the inability to borrow abroad in domestic currency, came to th... more The matter of the 'original sin', the inability to borrow abroad in domestic currency, came to the centre of the academic discussion after the dramatic episodes in Asia, Russia and Latin America. According to this international framework, this paper is an empirical analysis of 'original sin' for six Latin American countries based on the index (OSIN3) developed by Haussmann and Panizza (2003). This paper finds that the situation for some countries have been improving reflecting a reduction of the index. This fact could be related to recent economic policies related to an 'abstinence' rather than 'redemption', an attitude seen as a response to the debt crisis. Finally, the paper focuses on possible policy alternatives that could be adopted to overcome the 'original sin' phenomenon it includes North-South and South-South cooperation and a multilateral arrangement. However, such alternatives are limited to feasibility mainly due to the turbulent political and economic scenario in the region.
In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted... more In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted rising attention, as testified by the development of the Sraffian Supermulti plier model (SSM) and the attempts to include autonomous demand in the Neo-Kaleckian model. This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and the policy conclusions of the two models in the Euro Area. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may con stitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modified Neo-Kaleckian model, leading to the convergence towards a desired rate of utilization. Furthermore, the chief diffierence between the models is recognized to be the role attached to the rate of capacity utilization in the long run. Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussio...
The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rat... more The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rate and COVID-19 infection rate. The model shows that lockdown measures can effectively reduce the infection rate, but at the cost of higher unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, hence producing waves in the unemployment rate in the absence of widespread immunity and/or vaccination. Furthermore, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation shows the dramatic effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by potential recurrent waves of COVID-19, leading to a series of W-shaped recessions that - in absence of adequate policy response - jeopardize the coming back to the normal trend in the medium run.
The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous n... more The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous nature of the degree of capacity utilization, overlooking Steindl’s and Minsky’s insights on the role of inventories and debt financing in shaping investment decisions. In order to fill this gap, this paper develops a Steindl-Minsky SFC model by including inventories, as well as firm’s deposits and debt financing into the investment function. The role of investment decisions in shaping economic growth is assessed by considering a model populated by five types of economic actors: workers, firms, rentiers, commercial banks and the central bank. First, business cycle fluctuations are investigated assuming a deterministic steady growth path in the long period, in line with recent developments in heterodox growth theory. Second, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US economy. 1 Corresponding author. Ph.D. student at the New School for Social Research. E-mail: galle264@newschool.edu 2...
Review of Political Economy
This paper seeks to capture the dynamic interaction between the epidemiological evolution of COVI... more This paper seeks to capture the dynamic interaction between the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 and its effect on the macroeconomy, in absence of widespread vaccination. We do that by building a stylized two-equations dynamical system in the COVID-19 positivity rate and the unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, thus producing waves in the two variables in the absence of widespread immunity through vaccination. Furthermore, we model the impact of the pandemicdriven unemployment shock on output, showing how the emergence of cyclical downswings could determine a L-shaped recession in the medium run, in absence of adequate stimulus policies. Moreover, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation highlights the effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by recurrent waves of COVID-19, which risk to jeopardize the coming back to the precrisis trend in the medium run.
IPE Working Paper, 2019
In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted... more In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted rising attention, as testified by the development of the Sraffian Supermulti plier model (SSM) and the attempts to include autonomous demand in the Neo-Kaleckian model. This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and the policy conclusions of the two models in the Euro Area. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may con stitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modified Neo-Kaleckian model, leading to the convergence towards a desired rate of utilization. Furthermore, the chief diffierence between the models is recognized to be the role attached to the rate of capacity utilization in the long run. Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussion outlines the short and long-run relation between autonomous demand and output, by testing both the cointegration and the direction of causality between the two with a VECM model. Moreover, the role accounted by both theories to the actual rate of capacity utilization and its discrepancies from the normal rate is empirically assessed, through a time-series estimation of the Sraffian and Neo-Kaleckian investment functions. While confirming the theoretical relation between autonomous demand and output in the long run, the results show that the dynamics of the rate of capacity utilization still plays a key role in the short-run adjustment mechanism - despite its stationary behaviour in the long term. Therefore, admitting that Keynesian results may hold even after the traverse, our work suggests to be Kaleckian in the short run and Sraffian in the long run.
Gli enti pubblici costituiscono una delle grandi categorie strutturali nelle quali si articola l'... more Gli enti pubblici costituiscono una delle grandi categorie strutturali nelle quali si articola l'organizzazione pubblica complessivamente intesa. 1 ; fanno parte del concetto di amministrazione pubblica, ma non rientrano nell'amministrazione dello Stato, tanto che sono stati anche denominati "amministrazioni parallele". L'ente pubblico si qualifica come quel particolare centro d'imputazione di interessi, dotato di personalità giuridica (con capacità giuridica e capacità d'agire) e contemporaneamente orientato alla cura concreta dell'interesse generale. Tale definizione potrebbe comunque risultare semplicistica, riducendosi a una mera definizione formale, scevra da un ricco dibattito accademico tuttora attuale e influenzato dalle fasi successive di nazionalizzazione e liberalizzazione dei vari enti. Non potendo delineare una figura univoca di ente pubblico, alcuni preferiscono definirlo partendo dal criterio base comune a tutte le definizioni pubblicistiche. In questo senso, dovrà ritenersi pubblico un ente la cui esistenza è considerata necessaria dall'ente territoriale di riferimento. 2 Questa definizione, tuttavia, essendo legata a considerazioni di più stringente carattere politico circa la necessità o meno dell'ente stesso, ci pare poco esaustiva; preferiremo pertanto la prima definizione data, ovvero quella di ente come strumento attraverso cui la P.A. esplica l'attività amministrativa.
NSSR Working paper, 2020
The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rat... more The paper presents a predator-prey model which captures the interactions between unemployment rate and COVID-19 infection rate. The model shows that lockdown measures can effectively reduce the infection rate, but at the cost of higher unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, hence producing waves in the unemployment rate in the absence of widespread immunity and/or vaccination. Furthermore, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation shows the dramatic effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by potential recurrent waves of COVID-19, leading to a series of W-shaped recessions that-in absence of adequate policy response-jeopardize the coming back to the normal trend in the medium run.
NSSR Working paper series, 2020
The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous n... more The recent debate in Post-Keynesian theories of investment has mainly focused on the endogenous nature of the degree of capacity utilization, overlooking Steindl's and Minsky's insights on the role of inventories and debt financing in shaping investment decisions. In order to fill this gap, this paper develops a Steindl-Minsky SFC model by including inventories, as well as firm's deposits and debt financing into the investment function. The role of investment decisions in shaping economic growth is assessed by considering a model populated by five types of economic actors: workers, firms, rentiers, commercial banks and the central bank. First, business cycle fluctuations are investigated assuming a deterministic steady growth path in the long period, in line with recent developments in heterodox growth theory. Second, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US economy.
This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and policy conclusions of the Sra an Superm... more This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and policy conclusions of the Sra an Supermultiplier model (SSM) and the modified Neo-Kaleckian model after the inclusion of autonomous components of aggregate demand. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may constitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modified Neo-Kaleckian model. Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussion outlines the short and long-run relation between autonomous demand and output, by testing cointegration and causality with a VECM model. Moreover, the role accounted by both theories to the rate of capacity utilization is empirically assessed, through a time-series estimation of the Sraffian and Neo-Kaleckian investment functions. While confirming the theoretical relation between autonomous demand and output in the long run, the results show that capacity utilization still plays a key role in the short-run adjustment mechanism. Therefore, admitting that Keynesian results may hold even after the traverse, our work suggests to be Kaleckian in the short run and Sraffian in the long run.