Gleb Toropchin | Novosibirsk State Technical University (original) (raw)

Papers by Gleb Toropchin

Региональный режим ядерного нераспространения в АТР: акторная и спатиальная структуры (Regional Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime in the Asia-Pacific: Actor-Based and Spatial Structures), 2024

The paper features an investigation of the structure(s) of the regional nuclear non-proliferation... more The paper features an investigation of the structure(s) of the regional nuclear non-proliferation regime in the Asia-Pacific. The morphology of the regime under discussion is discovered in the study from the actor-based and spatial standpoints with the use of analytical methods. At a national level, four tiers of the actor-based structure manifest themselves. The spatial structure, in its turn, is underpinned by dividing the macroregion into subregions, which is expressed, in particular, in the existence of NWFZs (nuclear-weapon-free zones). The author draws a conclusion regarding the progressively implemented nuclearisation of the geographic periphery of the Asia-Pacific while the core of the larger region – namely, Southeast Asia — remains relatively distant from the issue.

A Review of Session "Polycentric Nuclear Order: Risks Uncontrolled", 2024

A Review of Session "Polycentric Nuclear Order: Risks Uncontrolled" at the X Annual International... more A Review of Session "Polycentric Nuclear Order: Risks Uncontrolled" at the X Annual International Forum "Primakov Readings" at Moscow, Russia

Nuclearisation Ladder: Threshold State Gradients, 2024

The article is dedicated to conceptualising the model of a “nuclearisation ladder” aimed at struc... more The article is dedicated to conceptualising the model of a “nuclearisation ladder” aimed at structuring the understanding of threshold nuclear states’ behaviour. The scheme is based on the idea of the “escalation ladder”, originally suggested by Herman Kahn in the 1960s and developed by a number of authors since then. Notions such as “guarantor” and “beneficiary” are introduced: they describe the relationship between the state that initiates the extended nuclear deterrence system and its allies that capitalise on the positive security guarantees. Among the steps of the “nuclearisation ladder” are guarantor’s verbal interventions, legal confirmation of the positive security guarantees, emergence of additional mechanisms pertaining to extended nuclear deterrence, deployment of guarantor’s nuclear weapons on the beneficiary’s territory, and active development of beneficiary’s own nuclear weapons. Lastly, a nuclear test symbolises the transfer of a threshold nuclear state to the category of de facto nuclear weapons possessors. Of note is the bidirectional nature of the “nuclearisation ladder”. The external track is defined by differing levels of security guarantees on the part of a more powerful ally. At the same time, the internal vector is plotted based on the degree of proximity to obtaining an indigenous nuclear weapon. The author analyses both the cases of gradual militarisation of nuclear programmes and noticeably less conspicuous examples of de-escalation. From a rhetorical standpoint, the movement up and down the ladder is characterised by a transition from discursive practices to performative ones, exemplified by preventive speech acts. The policies of threshold actors in the Asia–Pacific (Republic of Korea, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan) serve as empiric material for validating the study. The position of each nation on the “nuclearisation ladder” is determined as of recent decades with respect to the concept of a “nuclear umbrella” provided by a nuclear weapons state, as well as considering national nuclear programmes.

Theorising Foreign Policy and IR in Vietnam: A Case for a Non-Western IRT?, 2023

The article is devoted to revealing some of the key concepts pertaining to International Relation... more The article is devoted to revealing some of the key concepts pertaining to International Relations Theories (IRT) suggested by the leading Vietnamese scholars at present. While claiming no comprehensiveness with regard to the coverage, the paper unveils some of the circumstances that served as a background for the evolution of International Relations (IR) as a discipline in Vietnam with a specific focus on the indigenous school(s) of thought. In particular, a Vietnamese conceptualisation of the middle power theory is of interest, being relevant not only in terms of advancing the methodological constructs but also for formulating even if indirectly-Vietnam's foreign policy in practice. On the whole, noteworthy is the creative adaptation of Ho Chi Minh's thoughts to the contemporary intricacies of international politics. Findings show that while some Vietnamese groundwork in IR theories is typical of non-Western scholarship on the whole, it manifests a certain degree of uniqueness in that it relies on a combination of Marxist-Leninist doctrines and Ho Chi Minh's postulates with both characteristically Asian notions (e.g. "bamboo diplomacy") and theoretical developments originating in the Global West (such as the concept of a "middle power").

The Term "Indo-Pacific" as Conceptualised in the Language of International Law, 2023

This paper is dedicated to scrutinising the problem of how the term "Indo-Pacific" is conceptuali... more This paper is dedicated to scrutinising the problem of how the term "Indo-Pacific" is conceptualised in the international law from both linguistics and IR (International Relations) perspectives. The relevance of the topic is defined by a growing number of corresponding legal documents adopted by regional and external actors, which in turn has an impact on the realm of international law. The goal of the study consists in tracing back the peculiarities accompanying the described process of conceptualisation. A brief literature review demonstrates a clear lack of related analyses in the legal dimension; the academic novelty can thus be substantiated by the fact that the groups of sources of law introducing the "Indo-Pacific" concept are categorised in a hierarchical manner. From a methodological point of view the paper is aimed at adding linguistics and international law to the mix of disciplines that can assist in comprehending the relatively recent phenomenon of "Indo-Pacific", political science already being paramount among these. As for the findings, it has been shown that bridging the gap between the designated areas is in principle possible thanks to an interdisciplinary approach, allowing thereby to create a multidimensional image of the macroregion. Another associated inference concerns the dynamics of how exactly the notion under discussion has been rooting in the sources of international law: namely, this happened due to a transfer from national legislation. The article is concluded with the discussion on the evolution stages of incorporation of the term "Indo-Pacific" in the international law, as well as recommended directions of further research.

Алармизм и десекьюритизация: ядерная программа Мьянмы, 2023

The goal of the paper is to analyse how the alleged military nuclear programme in the Republic of... more The goal of the paper is to analyse how the alleged military nuclear programme in the Republic of Myanmar and, most of all, its perception by the global community have been evolving over the previous two decades. The study is built on a number of sources including official documents of international law signed by Naypyidaw (e.g. NPT, CTBT, Bangkok Treaty, TPNW, IAEA’s Additional Protocol and other agreements), as well as corresponding speech acts by politicians. The article also features a literature review based on the most representative pieces of related research by both Russian and international experts. The historical context of the issue and peculiarities of the nuclear fuel cycle in Myanmar are considered, while characteristic features of politisation, securitisation and desecuritisation are scrutinised as well. The principle of historicism made it possible to periodise the developments. The securitisation theory, advocated by scholars of the Copenhagen IR school, most notably B. Buzan and O. Wæver, is the theoretical foundation of this work. Its key elements and terms, such as “regional security complex” and “securitising actor”, are actively utilised in this article. It is demonstrated that both a broader (Asia-Pacific as a macroregional security supercomplex) and a narrower (Southeast Asian security subcomplex) understanding of the concept term is applicable. The mentioned theoretical framework serves to explain the motives behind attracting the world’s attention to Naypyidaw’s nuclear activities, interpreted in a specific manner, especially regarding Myanmar’s close military ties with North Korea and Pakistan. In terms of methodological approaches, these include case studies and elements of discourse analysis. The author’s findings show a direct connection between the process of Myanmar’s democratic transition, which manifested itself in the 2010s, and the desecuritisation of its nuclear programme. Some parallels can be drawn between Myanmar’s nuclear programme, on the one hand, and Iran or DPRK cases, on the other hand, but there are also some substantial differences. As such, one of the conclusions is that Myanmar is a typical representative of the so-called “near-threshold”, or “subthreshold” states, i.e. probably possessing the political will to go nuclear but at the same time lacking critical nuclear materials and expertise to that end. Apart from that, recommendations on how to deepen further investigation under the circumstances of the 2021 shift of power in the country are given.

Bulletin of Kemerovo State University

The Indo-Paciﬁc region concept, having a signiﬁcant place in the U.S. as well as their Asia-Paciﬁ... more The Indo-Paciﬁc region concept, having a signiﬁcant place in the U.S. as well as their Asia-Paciﬁc allies’ oﬃcial discourse in the latest decades, is also penetrating the diplomatic terminology of both the EU and separate European nations. This paper features a review of how the Indo-Paciﬁc strategies are designed as exempliﬁed by the corresponding documents adopted by the said international organisation and some of its member states (including the former ones, such as the UK), particularly in the security realm and nuclear non-proliferation, given the importance of these factors for strategic stability in the global and regional dimensions. In terms of methodology, the article employs some elements of discourse analysis, content analysis, comparative political studies, and prognostic methods; the sources are represented by the EU and European countries’ oﬃcial documents, as well as speeches made by politicians. Thanks to analysing the states’ strategies, main trends, which are also...

RUDN Journal of Economics

Rapid development of China’s internal nuclear market, together with its rise on the international... more Rapid development of China’s internal nuclear market, together with its rise on the international arena and the declared transition to green economy, gave a crucial impetus to its aspirations to enter the international atomic market as a global exporter of nuclear technology. The aim of this article is to define the political and ideological foundations underpinning such an ambitious endeavor, as well as predict the related development in the short and mid-term perspective. The author utilizes both general scientific methods as well as statistical and comparative analysis to single out the directions of China’s nuclear market outreach, both regionally and globally. Pakistan, widely presented as a flagship example of China’s exporting its know-how in nuclear engineering, remains the only partner of a kind in the broader Asia-Pacific. This article demonstrates that Belt and Road Initiative (specifically, the Green Silk Road), out of all multiple formats, was arguably chosen by the Chi...

TPNW & NPT – Japan as a Bridge-Builder, 2022

Japan, given its influence on the international arena, could play a stronger role in the internat... more Japan, given its influence on the international arena, could play a stronger role in the international security regime by assuming a more pronounced position towards TPNW.

Atomic Belt and Road: China's International Nuclear Market Entry, 2022

Rapid development of China's internal nuclear market, together with its rise on the international... more Rapid development of China's internal nuclear market, together with its rise on the international arena and the declared transition to green economy, gave a crucial impetus to its aspirations to enter the international atomic market as a global exporter of nuclear technology. The aim of this article is to define the political and ideological foundations underpinning such an ambitious endeavor, as well as predict the related development in the short and mid-term perspective. The author utilizes both general scientific methods as well as statistical and comparative analysis to single out the directions of China's nuclear market outreach, both regionally and globally. Pakistan, widely presented as a flagship example of China's exporting its know-how in nuclear engineering, remains the only partner of a kind in the broader Asia-Pacific. This article demonstrates that Belt and Road Initiative (specifically, the Green Silk Road), out of all multiple formats, was arguably chosen by the Chinese government as the most suitable framework for expanding its influence in the nuclear domain and filling a certain gap which formed after Westinghouse and Areva (now Orano) got reorganised after encountering financial problems. At the same time, China's bid for leadership in the sphere of nuclear technology is obstructed by some impediments. Among them are Russia's dominance in breakthrough areas of nuclear engineering and Rosatom's large market share, as well as lack of political will in some countries' elites to build ties with China in this strategic realm, opting for competition instead.

The EU and European Countries' Indo-Pacific Strategies: Security and Nuclear Factor, 2022

The Indo-Pacific region concept, having a significant place in the U.S. as well as their Asia-Pac... more The Indo-Pacific region concept, having a significant place in the U.S. as well as their Asia-Pacific allies' official discourse in the latest decades, is also penetrating the diplomatic terminology of both the EU and separate European nations. This paper features a review of how the Indo-Pacific strategies are designed as exemplified by the corresponding documents adopted by the said international organisation and some of its member states (including the former ones, such as the UK), particularly in the security realm and nuclear non-proliferation, given the importance of these factors for strategic stability in the global and regional dimensions. In terms of methodology, the article employs some elements of discourse analysis, content analysis, comparative political studies, and prognostic methods; the sources are represented by the EU and European countries' official documents, as well as speeches made by politicians. Thanks to analysing the states' strategies, main trends, which are also reflected in the common EU strategy, are singled out. The author draws a conclusion that the deterioration of the Ukrainian crisis will limit the opportunities for further development of the interregional ties between Europe and Asia.

Taking (Another) Turn to the East: Making Sense of Russia’s Stance in the Asia-Pacific, 2022

Given the rapidly developing situation in Ukraine and the sweeping sanctions aimed at derailing R... more Given the rapidly developing situation in Ukraine and the sweeping sanctions aimed at derailing Russia’s economy, Moscow has been mulling over its opportunities of making another pivot to the so-called Global East. Most of the Asia-Pacific forms an integral part of the mentioned area. The goal of this piece is to determine the tendencies intrinsic to this shift in Russian foreign policy and evaluate Russia’s resources in this direction, speci�cally focusing on the role of Russia-China “no limits” partnership. Regardless of the shared values underlined in the joint statement by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, it is argued that such principles as pragmatism and expediency will dominate the relations between Beijing and Moscow. Moreover, the same can be extrapolated to Russia’s ties with its other partners in the region.

An Adaptive Technique of Digital Maturity Integral Estimation for an Organisation, 2022

The paper reviews the digital transformation (DT) management technology for an organisation at th... more The paper reviews the digital transformation (DT) management technology for an organisation at the stage of evaluating its digital maturity. A characteristic feature of DT consists in profound changes in approaches to management, corporate culture, external communications, as well as an abrupt increase in efficiency. The relevant goal is to estimate the progress of DT and record the indicators of this progress in order to improve the efficiency of the further DT, as well as secure the transparency of an organisation in terms of its digital maturity. We present the developed system of estimating the digital maturity of an educational organisation. The objective of estimating digital maturity has been formalised thanks to analysing the existing approaches to validation of the digital maturity for an organisational object. The utilisation of the model developed is demonstrated on the example of higher education in the Russian Federation. The novelty of the given study is in introducing the mechanism of integral estimation calculation of digital maturity into the digital maturity evaluation methodology. The weights in this modified weighted average estimation are assigned to indicators of DM pronouncement level in such a way so that the integrated estimation could be transformed into a 100-point grading scale. The technique is adaptive and can be applied not only in educational organisations but also in organisations in other spheres of activity.

Угрозы безопасности Северного морского пути: сегодня и завтра, 2021

The article features relevant security issues pertaining to the Northern Sea Route, including fro... more The article features relevant security issues pertaining to the Northern Sea Route, including from the standpoint of Russian national interests. The
concept of security is scrutinised in its broader understanding, from traditional hard security to such components as logistics and energy. The topic is analysed based on Russian and international law documents. Author’s practical recommendations on how to tackle the threats and strengthen the regional stability are also given.

European Proceedings of Social and Behavioural Sciences, 2021

Linguistics in Security Studies: Content Analysis of Nuclear Doctrines, 2021

The paper is devoted to exploring the use of content analysis as a method of studying nuclear doc... more The paper is devoted to exploring the use of content analysis as a method of studying nuclear doctrines to uncover linguistics aspects of complicated, multi-layered documents. The described approach, originally developed within linguistics, has been extensively adopted in political science. However, there are few scholarly content analyses of nuclear doctrines, which indicates a lack of discourse around the subject. The interdisciplinary nature of such studies represents an opportunity to bridge the gap between the two fields. The definition of a nuclear doctrine and quantitative/qualitative iterations of the technique are described in this article. Case studies based on the examples of U.S., Russian and P.R.C. nuclear doctrines are presented. Based on the results, findings are provided regarding the advantages as well as the limitations of utilising content analysis for the given purpose. Among the former are the formalised language of the documents, the applicability of the method for all major IR schools of thought, and public availability of the corresponding software. Disadvantages include the dissimilar nature of the documents in different nations hindering the comparability, difficulties related with translation issues (which can yield unequal results from the same document analysed in varying languages), and obvious lack of transparency due to the sensitivity of the topic. Finally, recommendations are made for further academic research.

BRI vs. SCO: Institutionalising China's Nuclear Market Ambitions, 2021

Extended abstract of the paper presented at the international conference "Transformation of the E... more Extended abstract of the paper presented at the international conference "Transformation of the Energy Markets of the SCO Member States in the XXI Century” held on June 18, 2021 by Russian State University of Humanities along with the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MSLU and the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University).

The given article is dedicated to scrutinising North Korean missile and nuclear programmes from t... more The given article is dedicated to scrutinising North Korean missile and nuclear programmes from the standpoint of securitisation theory advocated by B. Buzan and O. Wæver. The author utilises various ideas within the securitisation theory to explain reasons which invoked the development of Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programme in Northeast Asia as a subregional security complex. The paper marks out the "securitising actor", "referent object" and "audience" in accordance with the described methodology. The work features examples of how securitisation influences countries’ official positions on the international arena and the perception of North Korean nuclear programme by the general public. Based on the conclusions drawn, the research provides a periodisation of North Korean nuclear and missile programme evolvement, which unravels its "pulsing", pendulous nature; its multilateral gist, as well as mutual influence of the acts which compose it.

The given article is dedicated to scrutinising the role of nuclear factor in the U.S. policy in t... more The given article is dedicated to scrutinising the role of nuclear factor in the U.S. policy in the Asia Pacific region lately. The work is written based on the analysis of the official doctrinal documents defining U.S. foreign policy. The aim of the paper is defining the significance of the nuclear dimension in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy and trends in its evolution in late 2010s and early 2020s. The author dwells upon the features of conceptualising the term “Indo-Pacific” in the U.S. foreign policy strategy taking into account its transition from the expert discourse to the official one. Three layers of analysis are singled out: doctrinal, operational and institutional. Special attention is paid to the relations between the U.S. and its allies in the macroregion, including parties to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (i.e. India, Japan and Australia), as well as other countries, such as South Korea. The influence of China’s growing power and its claims for regional and global leadership on the shift in Washington’s foreign policy is also unveiled. The author discovers a direct correlation between the role of the maritime constituent in the “Indo-Pacific security” and the intention of the U.S. to develop the sea and air components in its nuclear triad. Various directions of the U.S. advancing its nuclear forces in the Asia Pacific are shown, as well as the role of adjacent projects in the field of security (such as “Global ABM”). Apart from this, the article demonstrates the factors that might have an impact on the U.S. nuclear policy in the region during J. Biden’s presidency. An attempt is made to predict possible scenarios in the near future.