Mary Beth Altier | New York University (original) (raw)

Journal Articles by Mary Beth Altier

International Studies Quarterly, 2023

A defining feature of public (and, often, scholarly) discussion of international affairs is the t... more A defining feature of public (and, often, scholarly) discussion of international affairs is the treatment of states as unitary actors, that is, akin to individual persons. Drawing upon social–psychological research, we theorize that such unitary actor (UA) framing increases the degree to which adversarial states are perceived as entitative—that is, as relatively united—and, thus, the perceived complicity of a country's people in their government's actions. We therefore hypothesize that UA framing increases citizens’ support for indiscriminate, coercive policies against target states. In a content analysis of US elite statements spanning three decades, we first establish that UA framing is exceedingly common, occurring in nearly two-thirds of all references to adversarial states. We then conduct a series of survey experiments on US adults, finding that, compared to frames in which a state is described as more factious and disunited, UA framing is associated with significantly greater willingness to impose harmful, indiscriminate economic sanctions and military strikes against target states. Our results highlight the utility and applicability of entitativity to political science research, and have important implications for the role of elite discourse in bolstering public support for hawkish foreign policymaking.

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2021

A response to Marc Sageman's article "On Recidivism"

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2021

The potential threat posed by returning and repatriated foreign fighters and the upcoming release... more The potential threat posed by returning and repatriated foreign fighters and the upcoming release of homegrown violent extremists from prisons in developed democracies has raised interest in terrorist rehabilitation programs. Few studies, however, systematically examine how the public views such programs. Drawing on research on public attitudes towards prisoner re-entry in criminology and social psychological theory, this study offers a series of hypotheses about support for rehabilitation programming for terrorist offenders. These hypotheses are then tested through a survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of 1,021 adult citizens in the United States. The results show that the public is less supportive of post-release rehabilitation programming for terrorist than other criminal offenders. Support is also lower when an Islamist, rather than a white nationalist, offender is referenced. Support increases when a referenced Islamist is described as a juvenile convicted a less serious offense. Men, younger individuals, those with some college education, and self-identified liberals are more likely to support terrorist rehabilitation programming. Finally, irrespective of treatment, respondents are most likely to cite evidence of effectiveness as the factor that would increase their support for rehabilitation programming.

The RESOLVE Network, 2021

Recent questions surrounding the repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration of those who tra... more Recent questions surrounding the repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration of those who traveled to join the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the reintegration of violent extremists in conflict zones including Somalia, Nigeria, Libya, and Mali, and the impending release of scores of homegrown violent extremists from prisons in the United States and Europe have heightened policymaker and practitioner interest in violent extremist disengagement and reintegration (VEDR). Although a number of programs to reintegrate violent extremists have emerged both within and outside of conflict zones, significant questions remain regarding their design, implementation, and effectiveness. To advance our understanding of VEDR, this report draws insights from a review of the literature on ex-combatant disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR). The literature on DDR typically adopts a “whole of society” approach, which helps us to understand how systemic factors may influence VEDR at the individual level and outcomes at the societal level. Despite the important differences that will be reviewed, the international community’s thirty-year experience with DDR—which includes working with violent extremists—offers important insights for our understanding of VEDR.

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 2020

Research pays little attention to the diverse roles individuals hold within terrorism. This limit... more Research pays little attention to the diverse roles individuals hold within terrorism. This limits our understanding of the varied experiences of the terrorist and their implications. This study examines how a terrorist’s role(s) influence the likelihood of and reasons for disengagement. Using data from autobiographies and in-person interviews with former terrorists, we find role conflict and role strain increase the probability of disengagement. We show those in certain roles, especially leadership and violent roles, incur greater sunk costs and possess fewer alternatives making exit less likely. Finally, certain roles are associated with the experience of different push/pull factors for disengagement.

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2019

Recent interest in terrorist risk assessment and rehabilitation reveals the likelihood and risk f... more Recent interest in terrorist risk assessment and rehabilitation reveals the likelihood and risk factors for terrorist re-engagement and recidivism are poorly understood. Informed by advances in criminology, this study develops a series of theoretical starting points and hypotheses. We test our hypotheses using data on 185 terrorist engagement events, drawn from 87 autobiographical accounts representing 48 terrorist groups. We find terrorist re-engagement and recidivism rates are relatively high in our sample and similar to criminal recidivism rates except in the case of collective, voluntary disengagements when an entire group chooses to disarm. We account for why we observe relatively high rates in this sample. With regard to risk factors, we find terrorists are less likely to re-engage as they age. Radical beliefs and connections to associates involved in terrorism increase the likelihood of re-engagement. Social achievements (marriage, children, employment) do not commonly serve as protective factors, at least in the short term, when controlling for beliefs and connections. Finally, those from an upper or middle-class childhood family are less likely to re-engage.

Security Studies, 2017

A deeper understanding of terrorist disengagement offers important insights for policymakers and ... more A deeper understanding of terrorist disengagement offers important insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to persuade individuals to leave these groups. Current research highlights the importance of certain “push” and “pull” factors in explaining disengagement. However, such studies tell us very little about the relative frequencies at which these hypothesized factors are associated with leaving in the terrorist population. Using data collected from 87 autobiographical accounts, we find that push, rather than pull, factors are more commonly cited as playing a large role in individuals’ disengagement decisions and that the experience of certain push factors increases the probability an individual will choose to leave. Importantly, disillusionment with the group’s strategy or actions, disagreements with group leaders or members, dissatisfaction with one’s day-to-day tasks, and burnout are more often reported as driving disengagement decisions than de-radicalization. Finally, our results suggest that ideological commitment may moderate one’s susceptibility to pull factors.

Journal of Peace Research, 2014

Although research on violent extremism traditionally focuses on why individuals become involved i... more Although research on violent extremism traditionally focuses on why individuals become involved in terrorism, recent efforts have started to tackle the question of why individuals leave terrorist groups. Research on terrorist disengagement, however, remains conceptually and theoretically underdeveloped. In an effort to enhance our understanding of disengagement from terrorism and pave the way for future empirical work, this article provides a multidisciplinary review of related research from psychology, sociology, and criminology. Significant promise for moving beyond the existing push/pull framework is found in Rusbult and colleagues’ investment model from psychology and Ebaugh’s research on voluntary role exit from sociology. Rusbult’s investment model offers insight into when and why individuals disengage from terrorism, while accounting for individual, group, and macro-level differences in the satisfaction one derives from involvement, the investments incurred, and the alternatives available. Ebaugh’s research on voluntary role exit provides a deeper understanding of how people leave, including the emotions and cuing behavior likely to be involved. The article highlights the strengths and limitations of these frameworks in explaining exit and exit processes across a variety of social roles, including potentially the terrorist role, and lends additional insights into terrorist disengagement through a review of related research on desistance from crime, disaffiliation from new religious movements, and turnover in traditional work organizations.

Despite the growth of terrorism literature in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, there remain sev... more Despite the growth of terrorism literature in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, there remain several methodological challenges to studying certain aspects of terrorism. This is perhaps most evident in attempts to uncover the attitudes, motivations, and intentions of individuals engaged in violent extremism and how they are sometimes expressed in problematic behavior. Such challenges invariably stem from the fact that terrorists and the organizations to which they belong represent clandestine populations engaged in illegal activity. Unsurprisingly, these qualities make it difficult for the researcher to identify and locate willing subjects of study-let alone a representative sample. In this research note, we suggest the systematic analysis of terrorist autobiographies offers a promising means of investigating difficult-to-study areas of terrorism-related phenomena. Investigation of autobiographical accounts not only offers additional data points for the study of individual psychological issues, but also provides valuable perspectives on the internal structures, processes, and dynamics of terrorist organizations more broadly. Moreover, given most autobiographies cover critical events and personal experiences across the life course, they provide a unique lens into how terrorists perceive their world and insight into their decision-making processes. We support our advocacy of this approach by highlighting its methodological strengths and shortcomings.

Horgan, J. and Altier, M.B. (2012). ‘The Future of Terrorist De-Radicalization Programs’, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Summer/Fall, 83-90.

Behavioral Science of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 2017

This article presents a case study of one individual’s trajectory through violent right-wing extr... more This article presents a case study of one individual’s trajectory through violent right-wing extremism in the USA. Drawing on an in-depth in-person interview conducted with ‘Sarah’, we trace the influences affecting the nature and extent of her involvement, engagement and disengagement. We focus on delineating the complexity of Sarah’s disengagement from violent extremism. Her
account supports several claims in the literature. First, there is rarely any single cause associated with individual disengagement. Rather, the phenomenon is a dynamic process shaped by a multitude of interacting push/pull factors, sunk costs and the perceived availability of alternatives outside the group. Second, as
this case illustrates, prison affords physical separation from the violent extremist group and with it, time to reflect which may be critical to sustaining disengagement. Third, this account illustrates how de-radicalization may be a long-term process, and may in some cases supersede rather than precede one’s exit, even where
disillusionment precedes disengagement. Finally, Sarah’s case suggests the successful adoption of a new social role and sense of identity as a potentially important protective factor in reducing the risk of re-engagement.

Recent, and welcome, interest in the subject of terrorist disengagement and de- radicalization ha... more Recent, and welcome, interest in the subject of terrorist disengagement and de-
radicalization has revealed that the causes of terrorist recidivism are poorly understood. Studies of terrorist recidivism are virtually non-existent, which is surprising given that most critiques of terrorist de-radicalization programs are anchored in debates about the nature and extent of recidivism in the population of terrorist offenders. We seek to begin to redress this void in the literature by developing a series of theoretical, conceptual, and methodological starting points for thinking about terrorist recidivism that are closely informed by advances in criminology. While we find the definition of recidivism and its causes are often contested in the field of criminology, there are significant lessons that can inform the study of terrorist recidivism.

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2013

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2013

Conference Papers/Drafts by Mary Beth Altier

Existing research investigates why political parties or their associated armed groups engage in ... more Existing research investigates why political parties or their associated armed groups
engage in violence in democracies. However, few studies systematically examine the
effects of such violence on their own electoral base. Utilizing a new dataset for 101
electoral districts across six local elections during Northern Ireland’s Troubles, as well as
archival, interview, and survey data, this study suggests votes for armed parties are
generated, in part, by violence, which signifies the presence or deepening of a security
crisis. Within-district increases in state and, in certain contexts, sectarian violence against Catholic civilians are associated with marked increases in support for Provisional Sinn Féin, the Provisional Irish Republican Army’s (PIRA’s) political party, even when
controlling for changes in Catholic unemployment, inter-communal electoral
competition, and levels of violence between the PIRA and the state. Vigilante attacks by
the PIRA on alleged criminals also increase support for the party.

US Department of Homeland Security, 2013

The mission of the International Center for the Study of Terrorism (ICST) is to engage in and pro... more The mission of the International Center for the Study of Terrorism (ICST) is to engage in and promote the scientific study of terrorism and political violence. ICST creates multidisciplinary, cross-national research teams, drawing strongly but not exclusively from the social and behavioral sciences, to respond to needs and opportunities in the areas of terrorism and counterterrorism. The overarching goal of ICST is to help integrate theory with practice by providing actionable knowledge and a conceptual basis to policy-relevant and operational counterterrorism activity.

Past research investigates why political parties engage in violence in democracies (e.g., Weinber... more Past research investigates why political parties engage in violence in democracies (e.g., Weinberg, Pedahzur, & Perlinger, 2008; Wilkinson, 2004; Kydd and Walter, 2002). However, few studies systematically examine why these parties fare well at the polls in some contexts, but struggle to muster electoral support in others. Using conflict-related violence, census, and election data for 78 electoral districts across six local elections during Northern Ireland’s Troubles, this paper suggests that support for armed parties stems primarily from the presence or deepening of a security crisis and not economic grievances, the intensity of inter-communal electoral competition, or the relative local balance of power between armed groups and the state. Within Northern Ireland, within district increases in local state and, in certain contexts, sectarian violence against ordinary co-ethnic civilians generate marked within-district increases in support for relevant armed parties. So do vigilante attacks by the armed group on common criminals. These findings suggest policies, which prioritize economic aid and social service provision without addressing the underlying sources of citizen insecurity, are unlikely to succeed in significantly eroding support for armed parties.

Edited Books by Mary Beth Altier

As the United States and the countries of Western Europe have sought to promote democratic rule i... more As the United States and the countries of Western Europe have sought to promote democratic rule in those parts of the world that have not enjoyed the blessings of liberty, they have failed to consider an important factor. Competitive elections, the sine qua non of democratic government, often gives rise to serious bouts of political violence: mob riots, inter-party fighting, and internal wars. The essays collected in this volume evaluate the relationship between terrorist activity and electoral politics. Do democratic elections themselves undermine the development and stability of the democratic institutions the United States and its allies seek to promote? Under what conditions are democratic elections effective at bringing terrorist organizations into the political process, thereby quelling violence? When and how might terrorist organizations use democratic elections to foment violence?

International Studies Quarterly, 2023

A defining feature of public (and, often, scholarly) discussion of international affairs is the t... more A defining feature of public (and, often, scholarly) discussion of international affairs is the treatment of states as unitary actors, that is, akin to individual persons. Drawing upon social–psychological research, we theorize that such unitary actor (UA) framing increases the degree to which adversarial states are perceived as entitative—that is, as relatively united—and, thus, the perceived complicity of a country's people in their government's actions. We therefore hypothesize that UA framing increases citizens’ support for indiscriminate, coercive policies against target states. In a content analysis of US elite statements spanning three decades, we first establish that UA framing is exceedingly common, occurring in nearly two-thirds of all references to adversarial states. We then conduct a series of survey experiments on US adults, finding that, compared to frames in which a state is described as more factious and disunited, UA framing is associated with significantly greater willingness to impose harmful, indiscriminate economic sanctions and military strikes against target states. Our results highlight the utility and applicability of entitativity to political science research, and have important implications for the role of elite discourse in bolstering public support for hawkish foreign policymaking.

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2021

A response to Marc Sageman's article "On Recidivism"

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2021

The potential threat posed by returning and repatriated foreign fighters and the upcoming release... more The potential threat posed by returning and repatriated foreign fighters and the upcoming release of homegrown violent extremists from prisons in developed democracies has raised interest in terrorist rehabilitation programs. Few studies, however, systematically examine how the public views such programs. Drawing on research on public attitudes towards prisoner re-entry in criminology and social psychological theory, this study offers a series of hypotheses about support for rehabilitation programming for terrorist offenders. These hypotheses are then tested through a survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of 1,021 adult citizens in the United States. The results show that the public is less supportive of post-release rehabilitation programming for terrorist than other criminal offenders. Support is also lower when an Islamist, rather than a white nationalist, offender is referenced. Support increases when a referenced Islamist is described as a juvenile convicted a less serious offense. Men, younger individuals, those with some college education, and self-identified liberals are more likely to support terrorist rehabilitation programming. Finally, irrespective of treatment, respondents are most likely to cite evidence of effectiveness as the factor that would increase their support for rehabilitation programming.

The RESOLVE Network, 2021

Recent questions surrounding the repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration of those who tra... more Recent questions surrounding the repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration of those who traveled to join the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the reintegration of violent extremists in conflict zones including Somalia, Nigeria, Libya, and Mali, and the impending release of scores of homegrown violent extremists from prisons in the United States and Europe have heightened policymaker and practitioner interest in violent extremist disengagement and reintegration (VEDR). Although a number of programs to reintegrate violent extremists have emerged both within and outside of conflict zones, significant questions remain regarding their design, implementation, and effectiveness. To advance our understanding of VEDR, this report draws insights from a review of the literature on ex-combatant disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR). The literature on DDR typically adopts a “whole of society” approach, which helps us to understand how systemic factors may influence VEDR at the individual level and outcomes at the societal level. Despite the important differences that will be reviewed, the international community’s thirty-year experience with DDR—which includes working with violent extremists—offers important insights for our understanding of VEDR.

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 2020

Research pays little attention to the diverse roles individuals hold within terrorism. This limit... more Research pays little attention to the diverse roles individuals hold within terrorism. This limits our understanding of the varied experiences of the terrorist and their implications. This study examines how a terrorist’s role(s) influence the likelihood of and reasons for disengagement. Using data from autobiographies and in-person interviews with former terrorists, we find role conflict and role strain increase the probability of disengagement. We show those in certain roles, especially leadership and violent roles, incur greater sunk costs and possess fewer alternatives making exit less likely. Finally, certain roles are associated with the experience of different push/pull factors for disengagement.

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2019

Recent interest in terrorist risk assessment and rehabilitation reveals the likelihood and risk f... more Recent interest in terrorist risk assessment and rehabilitation reveals the likelihood and risk factors for terrorist re-engagement and recidivism are poorly understood. Informed by advances in criminology, this study develops a series of theoretical starting points and hypotheses. We test our hypotheses using data on 185 terrorist engagement events, drawn from 87 autobiographical accounts representing 48 terrorist groups. We find terrorist re-engagement and recidivism rates are relatively high in our sample and similar to criminal recidivism rates except in the case of collective, voluntary disengagements when an entire group chooses to disarm. We account for why we observe relatively high rates in this sample. With regard to risk factors, we find terrorists are less likely to re-engage as they age. Radical beliefs and connections to associates involved in terrorism increase the likelihood of re-engagement. Social achievements (marriage, children, employment) do not commonly serve as protective factors, at least in the short term, when controlling for beliefs and connections. Finally, those from an upper or middle-class childhood family are less likely to re-engage.

Security Studies, 2017

A deeper understanding of terrorist disengagement offers important insights for policymakers and ... more A deeper understanding of terrorist disengagement offers important insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to persuade individuals to leave these groups. Current research highlights the importance of certain “push” and “pull” factors in explaining disengagement. However, such studies tell us very little about the relative frequencies at which these hypothesized factors are associated with leaving in the terrorist population. Using data collected from 87 autobiographical accounts, we find that push, rather than pull, factors are more commonly cited as playing a large role in individuals’ disengagement decisions and that the experience of certain push factors increases the probability an individual will choose to leave. Importantly, disillusionment with the group’s strategy or actions, disagreements with group leaders or members, dissatisfaction with one’s day-to-day tasks, and burnout are more often reported as driving disengagement decisions than de-radicalization. Finally, our results suggest that ideological commitment may moderate one’s susceptibility to pull factors.

Journal of Peace Research, 2014

Although research on violent extremism traditionally focuses on why individuals become involved i... more Although research on violent extremism traditionally focuses on why individuals become involved in terrorism, recent efforts have started to tackle the question of why individuals leave terrorist groups. Research on terrorist disengagement, however, remains conceptually and theoretically underdeveloped. In an effort to enhance our understanding of disengagement from terrorism and pave the way for future empirical work, this article provides a multidisciplinary review of related research from psychology, sociology, and criminology. Significant promise for moving beyond the existing push/pull framework is found in Rusbult and colleagues’ investment model from psychology and Ebaugh’s research on voluntary role exit from sociology. Rusbult’s investment model offers insight into when and why individuals disengage from terrorism, while accounting for individual, group, and macro-level differences in the satisfaction one derives from involvement, the investments incurred, and the alternatives available. Ebaugh’s research on voluntary role exit provides a deeper understanding of how people leave, including the emotions and cuing behavior likely to be involved. The article highlights the strengths and limitations of these frameworks in explaining exit and exit processes across a variety of social roles, including potentially the terrorist role, and lends additional insights into terrorist disengagement through a review of related research on desistance from crime, disaffiliation from new religious movements, and turnover in traditional work organizations.

Despite the growth of terrorism literature in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, there remain sev... more Despite the growth of terrorism literature in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, there remain several methodological challenges to studying certain aspects of terrorism. This is perhaps most evident in attempts to uncover the attitudes, motivations, and intentions of individuals engaged in violent extremism and how they are sometimes expressed in problematic behavior. Such challenges invariably stem from the fact that terrorists and the organizations to which they belong represent clandestine populations engaged in illegal activity. Unsurprisingly, these qualities make it difficult for the researcher to identify and locate willing subjects of study-let alone a representative sample. In this research note, we suggest the systematic analysis of terrorist autobiographies offers a promising means of investigating difficult-to-study areas of terrorism-related phenomena. Investigation of autobiographical accounts not only offers additional data points for the study of individual psychological issues, but also provides valuable perspectives on the internal structures, processes, and dynamics of terrorist organizations more broadly. Moreover, given most autobiographies cover critical events and personal experiences across the life course, they provide a unique lens into how terrorists perceive their world and insight into their decision-making processes. We support our advocacy of this approach by highlighting its methodological strengths and shortcomings.

Horgan, J. and Altier, M.B. (2012). ‘The Future of Terrorist De-Radicalization Programs’, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Summer/Fall, 83-90.

Behavioral Science of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 2017

This article presents a case study of one individual’s trajectory through violent right-wing extr... more This article presents a case study of one individual’s trajectory through violent right-wing extremism in the USA. Drawing on an in-depth in-person interview conducted with ‘Sarah’, we trace the influences affecting the nature and extent of her involvement, engagement and disengagement. We focus on delineating the complexity of Sarah’s disengagement from violent extremism. Her
account supports several claims in the literature. First, there is rarely any single cause associated with individual disengagement. Rather, the phenomenon is a dynamic process shaped by a multitude of interacting push/pull factors, sunk costs and the perceived availability of alternatives outside the group. Second, as
this case illustrates, prison affords physical separation from the violent extremist group and with it, time to reflect which may be critical to sustaining disengagement. Third, this account illustrates how de-radicalization may be a long-term process, and may in some cases supersede rather than precede one’s exit, even where
disillusionment precedes disengagement. Finally, Sarah’s case suggests the successful adoption of a new social role and sense of identity as a potentially important protective factor in reducing the risk of re-engagement.

Recent, and welcome, interest in the subject of terrorist disengagement and de- radicalization ha... more Recent, and welcome, interest in the subject of terrorist disengagement and de-
radicalization has revealed that the causes of terrorist recidivism are poorly understood. Studies of terrorist recidivism are virtually non-existent, which is surprising given that most critiques of terrorist de-radicalization programs are anchored in debates about the nature and extent of recidivism in the population of terrorist offenders. We seek to begin to redress this void in the literature by developing a series of theoretical, conceptual, and methodological starting points for thinking about terrorist recidivism that are closely informed by advances in criminology. While we find the definition of recidivism and its causes are often contested in the field of criminology, there are significant lessons that can inform the study of terrorist recidivism.

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2013

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2013

Existing research investigates why political parties or their associated armed groups engage in ... more Existing research investigates why political parties or their associated armed groups
engage in violence in democracies. However, few studies systematically examine the
effects of such violence on their own electoral base. Utilizing a new dataset for 101
electoral districts across six local elections during Northern Ireland’s Troubles, as well as
archival, interview, and survey data, this study suggests votes for armed parties are
generated, in part, by violence, which signifies the presence or deepening of a security
crisis. Within-district increases in state and, in certain contexts, sectarian violence against Catholic civilians are associated with marked increases in support for Provisional Sinn Féin, the Provisional Irish Republican Army’s (PIRA’s) political party, even when
controlling for changes in Catholic unemployment, inter-communal electoral
competition, and levels of violence between the PIRA and the state. Vigilante attacks by
the PIRA on alleged criminals also increase support for the party.

US Department of Homeland Security, 2013

The mission of the International Center for the Study of Terrorism (ICST) is to engage in and pro... more The mission of the International Center for the Study of Terrorism (ICST) is to engage in and promote the scientific study of terrorism and political violence. ICST creates multidisciplinary, cross-national research teams, drawing strongly but not exclusively from the social and behavioral sciences, to respond to needs and opportunities in the areas of terrorism and counterterrorism. The overarching goal of ICST is to help integrate theory with practice by providing actionable knowledge and a conceptual basis to policy-relevant and operational counterterrorism activity.

Past research investigates why political parties engage in violence in democracies (e.g., Weinber... more Past research investigates why political parties engage in violence in democracies (e.g., Weinberg, Pedahzur, & Perlinger, 2008; Wilkinson, 2004; Kydd and Walter, 2002). However, few studies systematically examine why these parties fare well at the polls in some contexts, but struggle to muster electoral support in others. Using conflict-related violence, census, and election data for 78 electoral districts across six local elections during Northern Ireland’s Troubles, this paper suggests that support for armed parties stems primarily from the presence or deepening of a security crisis and not economic grievances, the intensity of inter-communal electoral competition, or the relative local balance of power between armed groups and the state. Within Northern Ireland, within district increases in local state and, in certain contexts, sectarian violence against ordinary co-ethnic civilians generate marked within-district increases in support for relevant armed parties. So do vigilante attacks by the armed group on common criminals. These findings suggest policies, which prioritize economic aid and social service provision without addressing the underlying sources of citizen insecurity, are unlikely to succeed in significantly eroding support for armed parties.

As the United States and the countries of Western Europe have sought to promote democratic rule i... more As the United States and the countries of Western Europe have sought to promote democratic rule in those parts of the world that have not enjoyed the blessings of liberty, they have failed to consider an important factor. Competitive elections, the sine qua non of democratic government, often gives rise to serious bouts of political violence: mob riots, inter-party fighting, and internal wars. The essays collected in this volume evaluate the relationship between terrorist activity and electoral politics. Do democratic elections themselves undermine the development and stability of the democratic institutions the United States and its allies seek to promote? Under what conditions are democratic elections effective at bringing terrorist organizations into the political process, thereby quelling violence? When and how might terrorist organizations use democratic elections to foment violence?