Saban Kardas - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Saban Kardas
Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2025
Turkish foreign policy has been on a steep-learning curve since 2015, whereby reliance on hard po... more Turkish foreign policy has been on a steep-learning curve since 2015, whereby reliance on hard power has come to undergird its external conduct. Through a levels-of-analysis framework, the article will delineate its meaning, boundaries, and limitations, and problematize how it fits into underlying trends in Turkish foreign policy and security culture. It will argue that while the literature highlights the quest for strategic autonomy, middle power activism, realist turn, and militarization as the main characteristics of the qualitative change, it was the convergence of these longer-term trends and especially the increased propensity to use coercive instruments as part of a realist turn that defined this period. The discussion section will offer a plausible account of the transformation, drawing on insights from neoclassical realism. It will argue that the post-2015 transformation of Turkish behaviour represents an adjustment failure, namely a delayed reaction to external-systemic contingencies by devising corresponding strategies.
Middle East Policy, 2025
Bashar al-Assad’s shocking ouster in December 2024 has led to debate about whether Turkey is now ... more Bashar al-Assad’s shocking ouster in December 2024 has led to debate about whether Turkey is now ascendant in the region. This article examines the multifaceted trajectory of Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian civil war and provides insights into the challenges ahead. It first traces Turkey’s evolving positions throughout the Syrian crisis, highlighting its moves during critical junctures. It argues that Ankara shaped the conflict by transforming its strategic thinking, abandoning the agenda of regime change and instead prioritizing its self-interest and national security. This required internalizing costs and exercising strategic patience, flexibility, and pragmatism. Next, the article examines how, through difficult adjustments between 2015 and 2020, Turkey managed to create an unstable equilibrium on the ground. It then analyzes patterns of Ankara’s engagement with the new Syria, in which it plays three interrelated roles: enabler, state builder, and protector. As for whether Turkey has “won” the war, the article discusses its advantages and challenges. While the official Turkish approach has been cautious, the final section argues that Ankara should avoid a patron-client relationship with the new administration in Damascus and forge the appropriate regional and international alignments. This can be ensured through a “sphere of interest” policy.
Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2025
Journal of World Sociopolitical Studies, 2024
This article analyzes the transformation of Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East during... more This article analyzes the transformation of Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East during the turbulent years initiated with the Arab Spring. In due course, Turkish policy considerably shifted from proactive engagement with the region in the early 2000s to a bid to leading regional transformation, particularly in the initial years of the Arab Spring. However, the reversal of the Arab Spring increasingly presented a blowback for Türkiye’s regional engagements. The ensuing regional insecurity resulted in a realist turn in Turkish foreign policy, with frequent resort to military instruments and coercive diplomacy. Eventually, regional policies of Türkiye corresponded to the search for de-escalation and normalization within the emerging Middle Eastern order since 2020. The article argues that changing regional dynamics corresponding with domestic conditions influenced and shaped Türkiye’s policies towards the Middle East. Recently, under the impact of the regional-systemic pressures coupled with changing domestic conditions, recalibrating its regional engagement, Türkiye has prioritized the normalization agenda. It argues that while normalization agenda will remain an important objective for Türkiye’s regional policies, it will evolve in a partial manner, and case-by-case, conditional on the unfolding regional order and Ankara’s strategic priorities.
DergiPark (Istanbul University), Jul 1, 2001
The author would like to thank to Dr İhsan Dağı for his insightful comments on the earlier draft ... more The author would like to thank to Dr İhsan Dağı for his insightful comments on the earlier draft of the article.
Global Swing States and Turkey
Liberal Düşünce Dergisi, Jun 1, 2009
Partners for Stability, 2013
and Technology in Ankara. Dr. Kardaş also works as an advisor at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign ... more and Technology in Ankara. Dr. Kardaş also works as an advisor at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Diplomacy Academy. He has published scholarly articles and book chapters on Turkish domestic and foreign policies, human rights, energy policies and international security and has been an occasional contributor to Turkish and international media. He is assistant editor to the quarterly journal Perceptions and writes analyses for the German Marshal Fund's On Turkey series. He has taught classes at Diplomacy Academy and Turkish Military Academy. He received his doctoral degree in political science from the University of Utah. Dr. Kardaş also holds a master's degree in international relations from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, and a second master's degree in European Studies from the Center for European Integration Studies in Bonn, Germany.
Muhafazakar Düşünce, 2019
İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının ... more İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının
eylemleri sayesinde İnsan Hakları Evrensel Beyannamesi’nden bu yana günümüz uluslararası lişkilerinde kendine yer edinmiş ve bazı devletlerin dış politika yapım sürecine dahil olmuştur. İnsan hakları uluslararası ilişkiler ve uluslararası hukukun gelişimini etkileyen temel güçlerden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Yine de insan hakları sorunsalının uluslararası ilişkiler pratiğine ve dış politika yapım sürecine dahil edilmesi,
modern uluslararası sistemin kurucu normları düşünüldüğünde, bazı teorik, normatif ve pratik güçlükler sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma insan hakları ve dış politika arasında varolan bu gerilimi tasvir edip, uluslararası ilişkiler ve dış politika çalışmalarında hakim yaklaşım olan realizmin temel ilkelerine bakarak, bu problemli ilişkinin kökenlerinin izini sürmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
Introduction— Geopolitics of the New Middle East: Perspectives from Inside and Outside
Routledge eBooks, May 3, 2023
Geopolitics of the New Middle East
Routledge eBooks, May 3, 2023
What Drove Syria Back into the Arab Fold?
Middle East Policy
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al‐Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
Geopolitics of the New Middle East: Perspectives from Inside and Outside
Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Feb 18, 2021
In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment... more In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment has been shaped by the cycle of insecurity and instability. The structural transformation in the MENA has unleashed such forces whereby the region has been destabilized by multi-faceted conflicts, which have seen the involvement of many local, regional and global actors. The risks and security challenges produced by the wave of instability and conflicts have altered the international relations of the MENA region to a significant extent. A retroactive reading suggests that a decade of turmoil was triggered mainly by the demands for political transformation observed in several countries. The broader transitions in the international order have also significantly accelerated the pace and direction of regional restructuring. The transformation of the regional order has been sparked by wave of popular uprisings, called the Arab Spring. Although the promise of democratic transformation heralded by the initial phase of the Arab Spring generated optimism, in its second phase, the regional transformation has increasingly been viewed in pessimistic terms. The initial prognoses for democratization produced mixed feelings about the future direction of regional transformation. However, no actor’s efforts alone were enough to assist the political transformation agenda, and diverging positions pursued by different international actors resulted in the stalling of political reforms. Increasingly, the region has been drawn into a cycle of violence as observed in Libya, Syria or Iraq, creating myriad security challenges that are threatening the local actors, as well as producing security externalities for the international system at large. This new security environment eventually altered the regional and extra-regional attitudes towards the issue of political transformation, narrowing the scope for a reform agenda. Today, we can retroactively reflect on the overlapping processes of the reconfiguration of the states, the region and regional security dynamics, the broad parameters of which have taken some shape for now. Socio-economic pressures, various conflicts and extraregional involvement have undermined the foundations of the regional order, with significant repercussions for the identities, borders, balance of power and alignments. Protracted civil wars, the emergence of non-state actors, proxy wars, and external interventions further undermined the semblance of a normative order. While many states of the region are struggling to preserve their sovereignty and territorial integrity, others have chosen to realign their partners. For some time, to accentuate the pressures on the nation-states and the borders, the discussions were centred on the future of the Sykes-Picot order, which arguably laid the foundations of the modern Middle Eastern
Middle East Policy, 2023
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al-Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
Project Report, 2022
This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and gove... more This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and government officials (10 from each country) from various institutions as a part of the project entitled "Japan-Türkiye Dialogue on International Affairs" conducted during March-July 2022 by TOBB University of Economics and Technology with the support of the Japanese Embassy in Ankara. The Delphi Survey mentioned in the report is conducted by the participation of another group of academics, experts and government officials, 15 from each country. The report builds on discussions made during the on-line meetings and the Delphi Survey, as well as the relevant literature.
On Turkey, 2014
For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such a... more For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such apocalyptic judgments hardly substitute for the sound analysis that is needed for an accurate assessment. Those critics who proclaim the collapse of Turkish foreign policy suffer from several conceptual and analytical fallacies. Four criteria offer a more fair assessment: conceptualization of the situation; contribution to the protection or attainment of fundamental objectives of the state; flexibility in responding to contingencies; and lastly, existence of the “chips” to stay
in the game. Given those criteria, Turkey’s scorecard is more balanced than what is proposed by the doomsters.
Understanding Turkey’s Coercive Diplomacy
Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent m... more Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, it is argued, aim to disrupt the game plans of other countries. Backed by military instruments, Turkey has confronted regional adversaries, including some of its NATO allies. It has undertaken naval exercises or deployed its navy to support its seismic surveys and has thwarted other players’ drilling efforts, hence blocking the monetization of the area’s natural resources, not to mention its military involvement in the Libya conflict. There is a tendency to view such actions as erratic moves aimed at disrupting the game plans of others which can hardly be explained by strategic considerations. Disruption is definitely part of Turkey’s regional conduct, but it would be misleading to downplay it as aimless. Such moves can be best conceptualized as part of coercive diplomacy, which is based on the threat of punishment or threat of denial to achieve desired...
The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest gover... more The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest governorate of Idlib triggered yet another cross-border military operation in the country by Turkey in February. Further escalation was prevented only through a meeting between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin on March 5 in Moscow. However, the unstable equilibrium in Idlib is more fragile than ever, and Turkey urgently needs to sustain it.
Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of ... more Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of International Relations at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara. He has published scholarly articles and book chapters on Turkish domestic and foreign policies, human rights, energy policies and international security and has been an occasional contributor to Turkish and international media. He is the assistant editor of the quarterly journals Insight Turkey and Perceptions and writes analyses for the German Marshal Fund’s On Turkey series and the Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor. FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAMME
Middle East Policy, 2021
Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdis... more Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been supported by elements of hard power, coercive diplomacy, and an increasingly emboldened foreign-intelligence apparatus. This article traces the roots of this new phase in Turkey's cross-border military engagement to two interrelated factors. First, Ankara has adopted a new counterterrorism doctrine that relies on a militarized regional policy. Second, the course of Turkey-Iraq relations since the liberation of Mosul and the Kurds’ failed independence bid has allowed Ankara to forge a relationship of dominance over Baghdad and Erbil, facilitating its interventionism. Next, the article evaluates the broader implications of Turkey’s determination to sustain the ongoing campaign. First, Turkey’s military operations against the PKK may play a decisive role in the organization’s evolution. Second, they may expose the challenges and limits of Ankara’s new assertiveness and reliance on the use of force in the Middle East. Third, Turkey may have to pursue a delicate line in its coercive policy, lest it further undermine the fragile internal balances of Iraq. Last, while Ankara’s assertiveness may test the tense relationship with Tehran, it may not end the new understandingthe two countries reached in their regional policies.
Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2025
Turkish foreign policy has been on a steep-learning curve since 2015, whereby reliance on hard po... more Turkish foreign policy has been on a steep-learning curve since 2015, whereby reliance on hard power has come to undergird its external conduct. Through a levels-of-analysis framework, the article will delineate its meaning, boundaries, and limitations, and problematize how it fits into underlying trends in Turkish foreign policy and security culture. It will argue that while the literature highlights the quest for strategic autonomy, middle power activism, realist turn, and militarization as the main characteristics of the qualitative change, it was the convergence of these longer-term trends and especially the increased propensity to use coercive instruments as part of a realist turn that defined this period. The discussion section will offer a plausible account of the transformation, drawing on insights from neoclassical realism. It will argue that the post-2015 transformation of Turkish behaviour represents an adjustment failure, namely a delayed reaction to external-systemic contingencies by devising corresponding strategies.
Middle East Policy, 2025
Bashar al-Assad’s shocking ouster in December 2024 has led to debate about whether Turkey is now ... more Bashar al-Assad’s shocking ouster in December 2024 has led to debate about whether Turkey is now ascendant in the region. This article examines the multifaceted trajectory of Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian civil war and provides insights into the challenges ahead. It first traces Turkey’s evolving positions throughout the Syrian crisis, highlighting its moves during critical junctures. It argues that Ankara shaped the conflict by transforming its strategic thinking, abandoning the agenda of regime change and instead prioritizing its self-interest and national security. This required internalizing costs and exercising strategic patience, flexibility, and pragmatism. Next, the article examines how, through difficult adjustments between 2015 and 2020, Turkey managed to create an unstable equilibrium on the ground. It then analyzes patterns of Ankara’s engagement with the new Syria, in which it plays three interrelated roles: enabler, state builder, and protector. As for whether Turkey has “won” the war, the article discusses its advantages and challenges. While the official Turkish approach has been cautious, the final section argues that Ankara should avoid a patron-client relationship with the new administration in Damascus and forge the appropriate regional and international alignments. This can be ensured through a “sphere of interest” policy.
Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2025
Journal of World Sociopolitical Studies, 2024
This article analyzes the transformation of Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East during... more This article analyzes the transformation of Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East during the turbulent years initiated with the Arab Spring. In due course, Turkish policy considerably shifted from proactive engagement with the region in the early 2000s to a bid to leading regional transformation, particularly in the initial years of the Arab Spring. However, the reversal of the Arab Spring increasingly presented a blowback for Türkiye’s regional engagements. The ensuing regional insecurity resulted in a realist turn in Turkish foreign policy, with frequent resort to military instruments and coercive diplomacy. Eventually, regional policies of Türkiye corresponded to the search for de-escalation and normalization within the emerging Middle Eastern order since 2020. The article argues that changing regional dynamics corresponding with domestic conditions influenced and shaped Türkiye’s policies towards the Middle East. Recently, under the impact of the regional-systemic pressures coupled with changing domestic conditions, recalibrating its regional engagement, Türkiye has prioritized the normalization agenda. It argues that while normalization agenda will remain an important objective for Türkiye’s regional policies, it will evolve in a partial manner, and case-by-case, conditional on the unfolding regional order and Ankara’s strategic priorities.
DergiPark (Istanbul University), Jul 1, 2001
The author would like to thank to Dr İhsan Dağı for his insightful comments on the earlier draft ... more The author would like to thank to Dr İhsan Dağı for his insightful comments on the earlier draft of the article.
Global Swing States and Turkey
Liberal Düşünce Dergisi, Jun 1, 2009
Partners for Stability, 2013
and Technology in Ankara. Dr. Kardaş also works as an advisor at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign ... more and Technology in Ankara. Dr. Kardaş also works as an advisor at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Diplomacy Academy. He has published scholarly articles and book chapters on Turkish domestic and foreign policies, human rights, energy policies and international security and has been an occasional contributor to Turkish and international media. He is assistant editor to the quarterly journal Perceptions and writes analyses for the German Marshal Fund's On Turkey series. He has taught classes at Diplomacy Academy and Turkish Military Academy. He received his doctoral degree in political science from the University of Utah. Dr. Kardaş also holds a master's degree in international relations from the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, and a second master's degree in European Studies from the Center for European Integration Studies in Bonn, Germany.
Muhafazakar Düşünce, 2019
İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının ... more İnsan hakları sorunsalı bazı devletler, uluslararası örgütler ve sivil toplum kuruluşlarının
eylemleri sayesinde İnsan Hakları Evrensel Beyannamesi’nden bu yana günümüz uluslararası lişkilerinde kendine yer edinmiş ve bazı devletlerin dış politika yapım sürecine dahil olmuştur. İnsan hakları uluslararası ilişkiler ve uluslararası hukukun gelişimini etkileyen temel güçlerden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Yine de insan hakları sorunsalının uluslararası ilişkiler pratiğine ve dış politika yapım sürecine dahil edilmesi,
modern uluslararası sistemin kurucu normları düşünüldüğünde, bazı teorik, normatif ve pratik güçlükler sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma insan hakları ve dış politika arasında varolan bu gerilimi tasvir edip, uluslararası ilişkiler ve dış politika çalışmalarında hakim yaklaşım olan realizmin temel ilkelerine bakarak, bu problemli ilişkinin kökenlerinin izini sürmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
Introduction— Geopolitics of the New Middle East: Perspectives from Inside and Outside
Routledge eBooks, May 3, 2023
Geopolitics of the New Middle East
Routledge eBooks, May 3, 2023
What Drove Syria Back into the Arab Fold?
Middle East Policy
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al‐Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
Geopolitics of the New Middle East: Perspectives from Inside and Outside
Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Feb 18, 2021
In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment... more In the last decade, the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional security environment has been shaped by the cycle of insecurity and instability. The structural transformation in the MENA has unleashed such forces whereby the region has been destabilized by multi-faceted conflicts, which have seen the involvement of many local, regional and global actors. The risks and security challenges produced by the wave of instability and conflicts have altered the international relations of the MENA region to a significant extent. A retroactive reading suggests that a decade of turmoil was triggered mainly by the demands for political transformation observed in several countries. The broader transitions in the international order have also significantly accelerated the pace and direction of regional restructuring. The transformation of the regional order has been sparked by wave of popular uprisings, called the Arab Spring. Although the promise of democratic transformation heralded by the initial phase of the Arab Spring generated optimism, in its second phase, the regional transformation has increasingly been viewed in pessimistic terms. The initial prognoses for democratization produced mixed feelings about the future direction of regional transformation. However, no actor’s efforts alone were enough to assist the political transformation agenda, and diverging positions pursued by different international actors resulted in the stalling of political reforms. Increasingly, the region has been drawn into a cycle of violence as observed in Libya, Syria or Iraq, creating myriad security challenges that are threatening the local actors, as well as producing security externalities for the international system at large. This new security environment eventually altered the regional and extra-regional attitudes towards the issue of political transformation, narrowing the scope for a reform agenda. Today, we can retroactively reflect on the overlapping processes of the reconfiguration of the states, the region and regional security dynamics, the broad parameters of which have taken some shape for now. Socio-economic pressures, various conflicts and extraregional involvement have undermined the foundations of the regional order, with significant repercussions for the identities, borders, balance of power and alignments. Protracted civil wars, the emergence of non-state actors, proxy wars, and external interventions further undermined the semblance of a normative order. While many states of the region are struggling to preserve their sovereignty and territorial integrity, others have chosen to realign their partners. For some time, to accentuate the pressures on the nation-states and the borders, the discussions were centred on the future of the Sykes-Picot order, which arguably laid the foundations of the modern Middle Eastern
Middle East Policy, 2023
After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divi... more After more than a decade of brutal civil war, which is still not resolved and has left Syria divided in thirds, regional states welcomed President Bashar al-Assad back into the fold in May 2023. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Damascus's membership was the culmination of a slow and fitful process that accelerated when Saudi Arabia took the lead. Still, it is too soon to know whether and how Syrian normalization will evolve beyond its Arab core, especially due to the West's continued sanctions regime. This article analyzes how the evolution of the Syrian crisis, the changing calculus of Arab powers, and American inaction have contributed to Assad's rehabilitation. In conclusion, we consider four areas that will determine the next phase of the normalization process.
Project Report, 2022
This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and gove... more This report is based on the discussions conducted between Japanese and Turkish academics and government officials (10 from each country) from various institutions as a part of the project entitled "Japan-Türkiye Dialogue on International Affairs" conducted during March-July 2022 by TOBB University of Economics and Technology with the support of the Japanese Embassy in Ankara. The Delphi Survey mentioned in the report is conducted by the participation of another group of academics, experts and government officials, 15 from each country. The report builds on discussions made during the on-line meetings and the Delphi Survey, as well as the relevant literature.
On Turkey, 2014
For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such a... more For most pundits, 2013 was a bad year, if not a disaster, for Turkish foreign policy. But such apocalyptic judgments hardly substitute for the sound analysis that is needed for an accurate assessment. Those critics who proclaim the collapse of Turkish foreign policy suffer from several conceptual and analytical fallacies. Four criteria offer a more fair assessment: conceptualization of the situation; contribution to the protection or attainment of fundamental objectives of the state; flexibility in responding to contingencies; and lastly, existence of the “chips” to stay
in the game. Given those criteria, Turkey’s scorecard is more balanced than what is proposed by the doomsters.
Understanding Turkey’s Coercive Diplomacy
Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent m... more Washington, DC Ankara Belgrade Berlin Brussels Bucharest Paris Warsaw Turkey’s different recent moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, it is argued, aim to disrupt the game plans of other countries. Backed by military instruments, Turkey has confronted regional adversaries, including some of its NATO allies. It has undertaken naval exercises or deployed its navy to support its seismic surveys and has thwarted other players’ drilling efforts, hence blocking the monetization of the area’s natural resources, not to mention its military involvement in the Libya conflict. There is a tendency to view such actions as erratic moves aimed at disrupting the game plans of others which can hardly be explained by strategic considerations. Disruption is definitely part of Turkey’s regional conduct, but it would be misleading to downplay it as aimless. Such moves can be best conceptualized as part of coercive diplomacy, which is based on the threat of punishment or threat of denial to achieve desired...
The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest gover... more The advances by Syria’s regime against the opposition-controlled territory in the northwest governorate of Idlib triggered yet another cross-border military operation in the country by Turkey in February. Further escalation was prevented only through a meeting between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin on March 5 in Moscow. However, the unstable equilibrium in Idlib is more fragile than ever, and Turkey urgently needs to sustain it.
Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of ... more Dr. Şaban Kardaş works as an Associate Professor of international relations in the Department of International Relations at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara. He has published scholarly articles and book chapters on Turkish domestic and foreign policies, human rights, energy policies and international security and has been an occasional contributor to Turkish and international media. He is the assistant editor of the quarterly journals Insight Turkey and Perceptions and writes analyses for the German Marshal Fund’s On Turkey series and the Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor. FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAMME
Middle East Policy, 2021
Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdis... more Turkey has pursued an assertive military campaign in Iraq to eliminate the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been supported by elements of hard power, coercive diplomacy, and an increasingly emboldened foreign-intelligence apparatus. This article traces the roots of this new phase in Turkey's cross-border military engagement to two interrelated factors. First, Ankara has adopted a new counterterrorism doctrine that relies on a militarized regional policy. Second, the course of Turkey-Iraq relations since the liberation of Mosul and the Kurds’ failed independence bid has allowed Ankara to forge a relationship of dominance over Baghdad and Erbil, facilitating its interventionism. Next, the article evaluates the broader implications of Turkey’s determination to sustain the ongoing campaign. First, Turkey’s military operations against the PKK may play a decisive role in the organization’s evolution. Second, they may expose the challenges and limits of Ankara’s new assertiveness and reliance on the use of force in the Middle East. Third, Turkey may have to pursue a delicate line in its coercive policy, lest it further undermine the fragile internal balances of Iraq. Last, while Ankara’s assertiveness may test the tense relationship with Tehran, it may not end the new understandingthe two countries reached in their regional policies.