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Papers by Miroljub Shukarov

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond Transition Towards Inclusive Societies

Received wisdom has favoured broad-stroke economic reforms for transition Europe and Central Asia... more Received wisdom has favoured broad-stroke economic reforms for transition Europe and Central Asia since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Many have argued that privatization and deregulation would unleash the productive energy of the market and attract foreign capital. This advice was seen to bear fruit. Following the transition recession of the early 1990s, and especially after the crisis of 1998, the region saw a decade of broad-based and uninterrupted recovery. Livelihoods improved, and poverty declined on average in every country. This report builds on evidence that, despite these gains, a significant number of people in transition Europe and Central Asia continue to feel dejected, and believe that their position in society has declined. While some of these feelings may be rooted in the uncertainty that has accompanied market relations and greater freedoms, something more fundamental is at play. Even in the decade of recovery and growth, inequalities continued to widen— especially between central and peripheral regions. The recovery failed to lift significant segments of the population out of poverty. Many people fell further behind. Fundamental to this analysis is the concept of social exclusion. This report links the social exclusion/inclusion paradigm, as developed in the European Union context, with the human development paradigm, as articulated by Amartya Sen. It starts from the premise that people value not only consumable goods and services but also things that cannot be consumed—activities and abilities that reinforce human dignity and self-respect. For example, we value employment not only because the income derived increases our purchasing power, but also because it makes us feel like worthy members of society. Human development is about a growing number of people leading lives that they increasingly value

Research paper thumbnail of The Role of Institutional Development in Education System: R&D and Innovation and Their Impact on Economic Growth

Research paper thumbnail of The Role Of Institutions In Attracting Foreign Direct Investments

Research paper thumbnail of Perceptions of Transition and the Crisis in Macedonia

Croatian Economic Survey, 2012

This paper provides an analysis of people's perceptions about the effects of the transition proce... more This paper provides an analysis of people's perceptions about the effects of the transition process and economic crisis in Macedonia, as extrapolated from UNDP surveys from 2008 and 2009 and set in the context of Macedonia's political life. Questions were constructed in a way to compare the current situation with the pre-1989 period in order to show differences in opinions. The results indicate dissatisfaction, especially among young people. Participants blame their dissatisfaction on the economic problems that have occurred during transition. Their expectations had been high in respect of economic efficiency but transition has not brought high employment or quality of life closer to the EU average. In fact, unemployment rates have increased and job security has been lost. The widespread belief that quality of life was better before the period of

Research paper thumbnail of Institutions, Education and Innovation and their Impact on Economic Growth

Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond Transition Towards Inclusive Societies

This report builds introduces a new approach to defining and monitoring social exclusion. It reve... more This report builds introduces a new approach to defining and monitoring social exclusion. It reverses the traditional sequence – instead of looking at the ‘usual suspects’ (groups at high risk of exclusion) it looks at individual characteristics that put the individual at risk of exclusion. Contrary to traditional group-focused approaches, this report maintains that social exclusion is about individual risks every member of society faces. Would these risks materialize in real exclusion depends on the external factors. These are the social exclusion drivers (institutions and norms, values and behavioural patterns as well as policies) and the specifics of the local context. Individual risks (say, disability) interact with the social exclusion drivers (good or poor implementation of anti-discrimination legislation) in the context of the specific local conditions (accessible or non-accessible environment). The individual risks, the social exclusion drivers and the specifics of the local conditions constitute the social exclusion chain. Given the variety of risks, social exclusion is the outcome of multiple and mutually reinforcing deprivations in one or more dimensions. The report captures the complexity of social exclusion through a multidimensional Social Exclusion Index, a measure that is based on 24 types of deprivations. The data for populating the indicator was generated through a representative survey in six Kazakhstan, Macedonia (FYR), Moldova, Serbia, Tajikistan, and Ukraine.

Research paper thumbnail of Measuring Sustainability of the “Pay as You Go” Public Pension System in the Republic of Macedonia

Revija za socijalnu politiku

The analysis of the demographical data indicates that currently the main challenge for the sustai... more The analysis of the demographical data indicates that currently the main challenge for the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go public pension system in Macedonia is not the aging population. The revenues from contributions as a percentage of total pension system's revenues are decreasing due to low labour activity, low wages and slow job-creation. The larger deficits of the fund call for an analysis and possible reform action. The paper provides simulations under proposed assumptions until 2030. In our simulations, the pension fund starts to generate surpluses after 2025-26. They are higher or lower depending on the policy to be chosen. The sensitivity of the pension system is the highest to the GDP growth, which points to the need to find mechanisms to accelerate growth.

Research paper thumbnail of Comparative Growth: Balkans and the Eu, with Special Focus on Macedonia

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Perceptions of Transition and the Crisis in Macedonia

This paper provides an analysis of people’s perceptions about the effects of the transition proce... more This paper provides an analysis of people’s perceptions about the effects of the transition process and economic crisis in Macedonia, as extrapolated from UNDP surveys from 2008 and 2009 and set in the context of Macedonia’s political life. Questions were constructed in a way to compare the current situation with the pre-1989 period in order to show differences in opinions. The results indicate dissatisfaction, especially among young people. Participants blame their dissatisfaction on the economic problems that have occurred during transition. Their expectations had been high in respect of economic efficiency but transition has not brought high employment or quality of life closer to the EU average. In fact, unemployment rates have increased and job security has been lost. The widespread belief that quality of life was better before the period of economic liberalisation and privatisation is no surprise and subjectively reflects the dissatisfaction with economic and political develop...

Research paper thumbnail of Growth drivers of middle-income transitional countries: The case of the Republic of Macedonia

Acta Oeconomica, 2014

ABSTRACT As the world is moving ahead, all national economies need to find their own development ... more ABSTRACT As the world is moving ahead, all national economies need to find their own development path. The economic growth should be continually high enough to provide for a normal and growing standard of living for the citizens and, at the same time, provide opportunities for introducing and engaging the new, incoming generations in the world of business. The countries differ not only by the levels of attained development standard, but also by the possible methods which might be used for accelerating growth.The paper discusses growth factors which could help Macedonia find its way to catch up with the developed world in the long run — if this is possible. Obviously, the importance of institutions understood as the “rules of the game” and underpinning them is one of the most important issues related to development that should be seen as a conditio sine qua non and a basic prerequisite of a “developmental wave”.

Research paper thumbnail of “You have to Run to Stand Still” (J.Stiglitz)

Procedia Economics and Finance, 2014

In economics, you have to run to stand still." (Stiglitz, 2010 p. 63). The world is going ahead a... more In economics, you have to run to stand still." (Stiglitz, 2010 p. 63). The world is going ahead and all the national economies need to find their own development path. Countries are competing among themselves and are analyzing, copying, or avoiding the other countries' success/failure experiences. They differ not only by the levels of reached development standard, but also by the possible methods which might be used for accelerating growth. This paper is trying to discover some of the specific growth drivers and to analyze different aspects of the economy structure of several selected countries, with a special focus on FYROM. The conclusions are driven by making comparison and analysis of the results from World Bank database, Global Development Indicators and World Development Finance indicators. Some of the conclusions are based on the use of Global Economic Prospects Indicators, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Poverty and Inequality Indicators, Doing Business and Enterprise Surveys.

Research paper thumbnail of The quality of life and regional development in FYR Macedonia

"The Quality of Life and Regional Development in FYR Macedonia Abstract The paper focuses on re... more "The Quality of Life and Regional Development in FYR Macedonia
Abstract
The paper focuses on regional disparities in the quality of life in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It explores the relationship between the quality of life, social exclusion, and policies towards regional and local economic development. Th e paper is based on a household survey carried out in August 2008 which provides a detailed picture of the situation facing households across regions. Overall, the survey shows that there are large regional disparities in life satisfaction, indicating an important role for regional policy in improving the life experience of people living in the most deprived parts of the country. Th e paper concludes with a number of recommendations for improving the focus of regional policies to ensure
a higher quality of life in the deprived regions of Macedonia."

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond Transition Towards Inclusive Societies

Received wisdom has favoured broad-stroke economic reforms for transition Europe and Central Asia... more Received wisdom has favoured broad-stroke economic reforms for transition Europe and Central Asia since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Many have argued that privatization and deregulation would unleash the productive energy of the market and attract foreign capital. This advice was seen to bear fruit. Following the transition recession of the early 1990s, and especially after the crisis of 1998, the region saw a decade of broad-based and uninterrupted recovery. Livelihoods improved, and poverty declined on average in every country. This report builds on evidence that, despite these gains, a significant number of people in transition Europe and Central Asia continue to feel dejected, and believe that their position in society has declined. While some of these feelings may be rooted in the uncertainty that has accompanied market relations and greater freedoms, something more fundamental is at play. Even in the decade of recovery and growth, inequalities continued to widen— especially between central and peripheral regions. The recovery failed to lift significant segments of the population out of poverty. Many people fell further behind. Fundamental to this analysis is the concept of social exclusion. This report links the social exclusion/inclusion paradigm, as developed in the European Union context, with the human development paradigm, as articulated by Amartya Sen. It starts from the premise that people value not only consumable goods and services but also things that cannot be consumed—activities and abilities that reinforce human dignity and self-respect. For example, we value employment not only because the income derived increases our purchasing power, but also because it makes us feel like worthy members of society. Human development is about a growing number of people leading lives that they increasingly value

Research paper thumbnail of The Role of Institutional Development in Education System: R&D and Innovation and Their Impact on Economic Growth

Research paper thumbnail of The Role Of Institutions In Attracting Foreign Direct Investments

Research paper thumbnail of Perceptions of Transition and the Crisis in Macedonia

Croatian Economic Survey, 2012

This paper provides an analysis of people's perceptions about the effects of the transition proce... more This paper provides an analysis of people's perceptions about the effects of the transition process and economic crisis in Macedonia, as extrapolated from UNDP surveys from 2008 and 2009 and set in the context of Macedonia's political life. Questions were constructed in a way to compare the current situation with the pre-1989 period in order to show differences in opinions. The results indicate dissatisfaction, especially among young people. Participants blame their dissatisfaction on the economic problems that have occurred during transition. Their expectations had been high in respect of economic efficiency but transition has not brought high employment or quality of life closer to the EU average. In fact, unemployment rates have increased and job security has been lost. The widespread belief that quality of life was better before the period of

Research paper thumbnail of Institutions, Education and Innovation and their Impact on Economic Growth

Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of Beyond Transition Towards Inclusive Societies

This report builds introduces a new approach to defining and monitoring social exclusion. It reve... more This report builds introduces a new approach to defining and monitoring social exclusion. It reverses the traditional sequence – instead of looking at the ‘usual suspects’ (groups at high risk of exclusion) it looks at individual characteristics that put the individual at risk of exclusion. Contrary to traditional group-focused approaches, this report maintains that social exclusion is about individual risks every member of society faces. Would these risks materialize in real exclusion depends on the external factors. These are the social exclusion drivers (institutions and norms, values and behavioural patterns as well as policies) and the specifics of the local context. Individual risks (say, disability) interact with the social exclusion drivers (good or poor implementation of anti-discrimination legislation) in the context of the specific local conditions (accessible or non-accessible environment). The individual risks, the social exclusion drivers and the specifics of the local conditions constitute the social exclusion chain. Given the variety of risks, social exclusion is the outcome of multiple and mutually reinforcing deprivations in one or more dimensions. The report captures the complexity of social exclusion through a multidimensional Social Exclusion Index, a measure that is based on 24 types of deprivations. The data for populating the indicator was generated through a representative survey in six Kazakhstan, Macedonia (FYR), Moldova, Serbia, Tajikistan, and Ukraine.

Research paper thumbnail of Measuring Sustainability of the “Pay as You Go” Public Pension System in the Republic of Macedonia

Revija za socijalnu politiku

The analysis of the demographical data indicates that currently the main challenge for the sustai... more The analysis of the demographical data indicates that currently the main challenge for the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go public pension system in Macedonia is not the aging population. The revenues from contributions as a percentage of total pension system's revenues are decreasing due to low labour activity, low wages and slow job-creation. The larger deficits of the fund call for an analysis and possible reform action. The paper provides simulations under proposed assumptions until 2030. In our simulations, the pension fund starts to generate surpluses after 2025-26. They are higher or lower depending on the policy to be chosen. The sensitivity of the pension system is the highest to the GDP growth, which points to the need to find mechanisms to accelerate growth.

Research paper thumbnail of Comparative Growth: Balkans and the Eu, with Special Focus on Macedonia

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Perceptions of Transition and the Crisis in Macedonia

This paper provides an analysis of people’s perceptions about the effects of the transition proce... more This paper provides an analysis of people’s perceptions about the effects of the transition process and economic crisis in Macedonia, as extrapolated from UNDP surveys from 2008 and 2009 and set in the context of Macedonia’s political life. Questions were constructed in a way to compare the current situation with the pre-1989 period in order to show differences in opinions. The results indicate dissatisfaction, especially among young people. Participants blame their dissatisfaction on the economic problems that have occurred during transition. Their expectations had been high in respect of economic efficiency but transition has not brought high employment or quality of life closer to the EU average. In fact, unemployment rates have increased and job security has been lost. The widespread belief that quality of life was better before the period of economic liberalisation and privatisation is no surprise and subjectively reflects the dissatisfaction with economic and political develop...

Research paper thumbnail of Growth drivers of middle-income transitional countries: The case of the Republic of Macedonia

Acta Oeconomica, 2014

ABSTRACT As the world is moving ahead, all national economies need to find their own development ... more ABSTRACT As the world is moving ahead, all national economies need to find their own development path. The economic growth should be continually high enough to provide for a normal and growing standard of living for the citizens and, at the same time, provide opportunities for introducing and engaging the new, incoming generations in the world of business. The countries differ not only by the levels of attained development standard, but also by the possible methods which might be used for accelerating growth.The paper discusses growth factors which could help Macedonia find its way to catch up with the developed world in the long run — if this is possible. Obviously, the importance of institutions understood as the “rules of the game” and underpinning them is one of the most important issues related to development that should be seen as a conditio sine qua non and a basic prerequisite of a “developmental wave”.

Research paper thumbnail of “You have to Run to Stand Still” (J.Stiglitz)

Procedia Economics and Finance, 2014

In economics, you have to run to stand still." (Stiglitz, 2010 p. 63). The world is going ahead a... more In economics, you have to run to stand still." (Stiglitz, 2010 p. 63). The world is going ahead and all the national economies need to find their own development path. Countries are competing among themselves and are analyzing, copying, or avoiding the other countries' success/failure experiences. They differ not only by the levels of reached development standard, but also by the possible methods which might be used for accelerating growth. This paper is trying to discover some of the specific growth drivers and to analyze different aspects of the economy structure of several selected countries, with a special focus on FYROM. The conclusions are driven by making comparison and analysis of the results from World Bank database, Global Development Indicators and World Development Finance indicators. Some of the conclusions are based on the use of Global Economic Prospects Indicators, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Poverty and Inequality Indicators, Doing Business and Enterprise Surveys.

Research paper thumbnail of The quality of life and regional development in FYR Macedonia

"The Quality of Life and Regional Development in FYR Macedonia Abstract The paper focuses on re... more "The Quality of Life and Regional Development in FYR Macedonia
Abstract
The paper focuses on regional disparities in the quality of life in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It explores the relationship between the quality of life, social exclusion, and policies towards regional and local economic development. Th e paper is based on a household survey carried out in August 2008 which provides a detailed picture of the situation facing households across regions. Overall, the survey shows that there are large regional disparities in life satisfaction, indicating an important role for regional policy in improving the life experience of people living in the most deprived parts of the country. Th e paper concludes with a number of recommendations for improving the focus of regional policies to ensure
a higher quality of life in the deprived regions of Macedonia."