Kiril Tochkov | Texas Christian University (original) (raw)

Papers by Kiril Tochkov

Transformations in banking, finance and regulation, Mar 23, 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

The lack of developed financial markets and well-functioning transmission channels assigns moneta... more The lack of developed financial markets and well-functioning transmission channels assigns monetary aggregates in emerging economies the potential role of nominal anchor, intermediate target, or informational variable for monetary policy. The effectiveness of this approach relies crucially on the correct measurement of money, which is not fulfilled by the conventional index based on the simple sum of financial assets. This paper calculates alternative Divisia monetary aggregates for Russia over the period 1998-2019, which account for the level of liquidity of a given monetary asset by assigning weights according to the usefulness of that asset for transaction services. Divisia is found to follow a growth pattern markedly different from the simple sum, whereby deviations between the two series are even more pronounced when foreign-currency accounts are included. We conduct three empirical exercises to demonstrate the advantages of Divisia over the simple sum. Divisia confirms the stability of the money demand function and reflects portfolio shifts in response to changes in the opportunity cost of money. Divisia-based GDP nowcasting performs better in times of financial turmoil than the simple sum. Lastly, Divisia mitigates the price puzzle phenomenon relative to the conventional measure. We conclude that Divisia monetary aggregates would improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in Russia.

Foreign Capital Flows and Economic Development in Africa, 2017

Regionalistica, 2019

В статье на основе гравитационных зависимостей оценены и декомпозированы торговые барьеры регионо... more В статье на основе гравитационных зависимостей оценены и декомпозированы торговые барьеры регионов Дальнего Востока со странами АТР. Показано, что обоюдное снижение различного рода барьеров способно интенсифицировать торговые взаимосвязи между регионами Дальнего Востока и странами АТР. На основе полученных оценок выделены две группы дальневосточных регионов, имеющих наибольший и наименьший потенциал расширения торговли в условиях сокращения институциональных барьеров со странами АТР. Расчёты показали, что для всех регионов Дальнего Востока было характерно значительное превышение сравнительных институциональных барьеров над тарифными в рамках торговых взаимодействий с территориально удалёнными рынками АТР.

Spatial Economics, 2019

Аннотация. Ввиду значительных расстояний от основных рынков сбыта России Дальний Восток тесно свя... more Аннотация. Ввиду значительных расстояний от основных рынков сбыта России Дальний Восток тесно связан с рынками стран АТР, текущее расширение торгово-экономических взаимодействий с которыми позитивно влияет на развитие его экономики. Снижение различного рода барьеров в торговле со странами АТР способно нарастить масштабы двусторонней торговли, выступив в качестве источника роста и развития для экономики Дальнего Востока. Для определения диапазонов увеличения торговли произведена количественная оценка потенциала торговых взаимодействий, возникающего вследствие нивелирования различного рода барьеров. Показано, что для Дальнего Востока наблюдалось постепенное изменение интенсивности внешнеторговых связей в пользу географически близких зарубежных рынковстран АТР. На основе построенной гравитационной зависимости оценены и декомпозированы в адвалорном эквиваленте торговые барьеры для взаимодействий Дальнего Востока со странами АТР. Определено, что основным источником тарифных барьеров Дальнего Востока со странами АТР являлась тарифная нагрузка на экспорт и импорт, формируемая российской стороной. Декомпозиционная оценка показала, что сравнительные институциональные барьеры Дальнего Востока со странами АТР существенно превосходили сравнительные тарифные барьеры. Данное обстоятельство указало на недостаточность снижения тарифных барьеров для целей обеспечения роста интенсивности двусторонней торговли Дальнего Востока со странами АТР. Проведенный анализ дал основание предполагать, что введение © Изотов Д.А., Тошков К.И., 2019 Ст атьи 21 ВЗАИМОДЕЙСТВИЕ ДАЛЬНЕГО ВОСТОКА СО СТРАНАМИ АТР... ПЭ № 3 2019 различного рода слабо мотивированных ограничений торговли с российской стороны привело к смещению таможенной нагрузки из тарифных барьеров в институциональные. Общий вектор интенсификации торговли Дальнего Востока, помимо Республики Корея, наблюдался с Китаем. Полученные оценки дают основание предположить, что сравнительные институциональные барьеры дальневосточных регионов с Китаем будут снижаться и далее. Показано, что нивелирование сравнительных институциональных барьеров между Дальним Востоком и Японией способно заметно увеличить торговые взаимодействия макрорегиона с рынком АТР.

The Journal of Developing Areas, 2017

Odisha is one of the major rice producing states of the eastern region of India. But, the adoptio... more Odisha is one of the major rice producing states of the eastern region of India. But, the adoption of modern agricultural technologies like modern varieties (MVs) of paddy is still low and skewed across regions and farmer groups in the state even after five decades of inception of green revolution in India. The state has two distinct ecosystems because out of 6.5 million hectares of gross cropped area of the state, 49% is still rainfed and 51% is irrigated. The patterns of adoption of MVs of rice and constraints in adoption process differ in both ecosystems. On this background, the present paper tries to analyze the intensity of adoption of MVs of rice and its determinants in irrigated and rainfed rice ecosystems of the state. The study is based on the primary data at the household level collected by a multistage purposive sampling method. The sample included 300 farm households from six villages of two districts, i.e., Cuttack and Khordha. These two districts represent the irrigated ecosystem and rainfed ecosystem, respectively. The study found that the total study region shows an increasing trend in the adoption intensity with the rise in the size of operational landholding even though the absolute area for large farmer group is the lowest. This positive association is higher in the irrigated region than in the rainfed ecosystem. There is no huge difference in adoption intensity of MVs across the farmer groups in the irrigated region as compared to their counterparts in the rainfed ecosystem. From the tobit model regression results, the study has found a glaring difference between the specific factors influencing the adoption intensity in both ecosystems. Factors like education, farm size, land position, extension visits, credit accessibility, local market, seed availability, perception about taste of MVs and shorter maturity of MVs were significantly influencing the adoption intensity in irrigated ecosystem. But, in the rainfed ecosystem, variables like non-farm activities, soil quality, land position, seed availability, perception on shorter maturity and higher yield of MVs were the significant determinants of adoption intensity. The pooled sample regression results reveal that the ecosystem dummy variable plays a significant role in the adoption decision. Therefore, the study pitches for the development of irrigation facilities along with rigorous implementation of farmer field school program and strengthening of agricultural extension networks.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

After more than two decades of transition and integration, countries in Central and Eastern Europ... more After more than two decades of transition and integration, countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) still exhibit income levels that are significantly lower than the European Union (EU) average. This paper examines convergence in per-capita GDP between CEE and the EU over the period 1990-2012 by employing a combination of parametric and nonparametric methods, which provide more detailed insights than previous studies. The results indicate that the first decade of transition has been marked by divergence from the EU benchmark. In contrast, CEE countries experienced strong convergence over the 2000s, even in the face of the global financial crisis. However, the distribution of relative income evolved from a unimodal to a multimodal one, revealing growing disparities within CEE. Human capital accumulation and progress in economic reforms are identified as the key determinants of convergence, while financial deepening and price instability had a negative effect, especially in the past decade.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009

The paper examines the efficiency of Bulgarian banks and its determinants over the period 1999-20... more The paper examines the efficiency of Bulgarian banks and its determinants over the period 1999-2007. The levels of technical, allocative, and cost efficiency are first estimated using a nonparametric methodology and then regressed upon a number of bank-specific, institutional, and EU-related factors. The findings indicate that foreign banks were more efficient than domestic private banks, although the gap between them narrowed over time. State-ow ned banks ranked last on average but their privatization resulted in efficiency gains. Capitalization, liquid ity, and enterprise restructuring enhanced bank efficiency, while banking reforms had an adverse effect. The Treaty of Accession and EU membership were associated with significant efficiency improvements.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

Bulgaria and Romania are neighbouring countries, which have always been rivals. Following the dec... more Bulgaria and Romania are neighbouring countries, which have always been rivals. Following the decision on EU enlargement to include Bulgaria and Romania (late 1999) and with membership negotiations already started (2004), the race between the two countries gained momentum and comparisons of performances in the areas of economy and democracy became a regular practice. Around late 1990s the two countries took different trajectories, although in the direction of EU and market economy. The great divergence is lying primarily in the choice of monetary regime. While Romania continued to pursue and enhance its discretionary monetary policy and since 2005 has moved to inflation targeting, Bulgaria made an abrupt turn in mid-1997 and introduced a currency board arrangement. In this paper, we investigate how the monetary regimes choice shaped the structure of both economies and the behaviour of the public and private sector, how they modified the mechanisms of adjustments and how they concentrate risks. We discus the institutional compatibility of monetary regimes with EU accession and EU membership using the theoretical insights form Dooley (1997, 2000) insurance model hypothesis. One of the main hypotheses, which we illustrate empirically, says that Currency board concentrate all economic activity and risks in the private sector, hence increasing of the private debt, while discretionary monetary policy leads to greater public debt growth and lower fiscal discipline. EU integration as well as the current crisis has different effects when combination with different monetary regimes.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution... more Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.

The Green Revolution turned India from a country plagued with chronic food shortages into a food ... more The Green Revolution turned India from a country plagued with chronic food shortages into a food grain self-sufficient nation within the decade of 1968-1978. By contrast, the decade of 1995-2005 witnessed a spate of suicides among farmers in many parts of the country. These tragic incidents were symptomatic of the severe stress and strain that the agriculture sector had meanwhile accumulated. The book recounts how the high achievements of the Green Revolution had overgrown to a state of 'agrarian crisis'. In the process, the book also brings to fore the underlying resilience and innovativeness in the sector which enabled it not just to survive through the crisis but to evolve and revive out of it. The need of the hour is to create an environment that will enable the agricultural sector to acquire the robustness to contend with the challenges of lifting levels of farm income and with climate change. To this end, a multi-pronged intervention strategy has been suggested. Reviving public investment in irrigation, tuning agrarian institutions to the changed context, strengthening market institutions for better farm-to-market linkage and financial access of farmers, and preparing the ground for ushering in technological innovations should form the major components of this policy paradigm.

The growing income inequality among China’s provinces has been examined in the context of fiscal ... more The growing income inequality among China’s provinces has been examined in the context of fiscal decentralization and the lack of an efficient interregional equalization system. However, the role of the fiscal system in providing insurance against idiosyncratic shocks to provincial income has been largely disregarded. This paper estimates the amount of shocks smoothed through taxes and transfers in China based on a comprehensive data set covering the 1980-2001 period. The results indicate that the overall extent of interregional risk sharing via fiscal flows is small relative to the United States, and that it decreased over the reform period making it a possible factor in the process of regional disintegration in China. ∗Department of Economics, Binghamton University (SUNY), P.O. Box 6000, Binghamton, NY 13902, e-mail: ktochkov@binghamton.edu. 1 Paper presented at the North East Universities Development Consortium (NEUDC) Annual Conference at Yale University in New Haven in 2003

Development Economics: Macroeconomic Issues in Developing Economies eJournal, 2015

Since the early 1990s, the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) has emerged as one of the major platfor... more Since the early 1990s, the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) has emerged as one of the major platforms for cross-border regional integration in Northeast Asia. Founded officially in 1995 with the support of UNDP, it was given a major boost in 2005 as China, South Korea, Russia, and Mongolia took ownership of the initiative. This paper assesses the effectiveness of GTI in terms of convergence in relative per-capita GDP across the 12 member regions over the period 1995-2013. The analysis is conducted using a combination of parametric and nonparametric methods and focuses on the shifts of the kernel density distribution of relative GDP and its intradistributional dynamics over time. The results indicate that in the first decade of the sample period intradistributional convergence was strong, while after 2005 improvements in living standards relative to a common benchmark dominated the process. Regression analysis reveals that on average cross-border convergence was annually 0.15% higher a...

Frontiers of Economics in China, 2017

Chinai¯s export performance is marked by large regional disparities which affect trade patterns a... more Chinai¯s export performance is marked by large regional disparities which affect trade patterns at the national level. This paper uses data from input-output tables to estimate the comparative advantage of Chinese provinces in the three main economic sectors over the period 1992¨C2007. In contrast to existing studies, we include the services sector in the analysis and construct not only indices of revealed comparative advantage for overall trade, but also bilateral indices for interprovincial trade. The results indicate that West and Central China have a comparative advantage in agriculture/mining, coastal provinces in manufacturing, and metropolitan provinces in services. However, interprovincial trade exhibits a more complex pattern. Regression analysis identifies labor endowments as the key determinant of comparative advantage in total trade, while physical capital is the driving force in domestic trade. Human capital and government spending have a positive effect, whereas indust...

Regional Research of Russia, 2020

Due to the considerable distances from the major sales markets of Russia, the Far East has close ... more Due to the considerable distances from the major sales markets of Russia, the Far East has close ties with markets of the countries in the Asian-Pacific region (APR). The current expansion of trade and economic interactions with these countries has a positive effect on the economic development of the Far East. Reducing various barriers to trade with the APR countries can increase the scale of bilateral trade, acting as a source of growth and development for the economy of the Far East. To determine the ranges for increasing trade, the potential for trade interactions arising from the leveling of various barriers was quantified. It is shown that for the Far East a gradual change in the intensity of foreign trade relations was observed in favor of geographically close foreign markets, the Asia-Pacific countries. Based on the constructed gravity dependence, trade barriers for interactions between the Far East and Asia-Pacific countries were estimated and decomposed into the ad valorem ...

IREX 1275 K STREET, NW, SUITE 600, WASHINGTON, DC 20005 T +1 202 628 8188 F +1 202 628 8189 WWW.I... more IREX 1275 K STREET, NW, SUITE 600, WASHINGTON, DC 20005 T +1 202 628 8188 F +1 202 628 8189 WWW.IREX.ORG Russia’s Far East (RFE) is set to benefit from Russia’s growing economic cooperation with China in the face of Western sanctions. This project examines the barriers to cross-border trade between RFE and its Northeast Asian (NEA) neighbors (China, Japan, and Korea) and compares these to the hurdles on trade with the rest of Russia. The results indicate that the border between RFE and NEA imposes much higher costs on trade than the one between RFE and the rest of Russia. Policy recommendations aimed at lowering border effects in RFE include the upgrade of transportation links and improvements in the business environment.