Robert John Zagar | The Chicago School of Professional Psychology (original) (raw)

Papers by Robert John Zagar

Review of European Studies, 2024

Annual U.S. violence expense = 3.46trillion(12.53.46 trillion (12.5% GDP). Insurance mass-murder/sex-offending pa... more Annual U.S. violence expense = 3.46trillion(12.53.46 trillion (12.5% GDP). Insurance mass-murder/sex-offending payouts range from 3M−3M-3M−1.1B. The U.S. Catholic Church has 24/194 (13%) pedophilia-bankrupt dioceses. Using 4-machine learning tests-equations, 7-high-risk predictors are—(1) addiction-alcoholism, (2) antisocial-behavior, (3) deception, (4) depression, (5) paranoia, (6) schizophrenic-thinking, (7) violence-potential—found in 212 studies (320,051 persons); in anticipating violent behavior, 4 tests-equations have 97% impressive predictive accuracy, ASP (Ask Standard Predictor, 2010), BASC (Behavior Assessment System Children, 1992), CAPI (Child Abuse Potential Inventory, 1986), MMPI-2/A (1992). Using tests-equations, over 16-years, insurance-leaders targeted 255,806 high-risk youth with cost-effective, (ROI=$6.42 for every dollar spent) jobs, anger-training, mentors, showing substantially 1,070 less homicides ("Chicago Summer-1 program"). This proves tests-equations with interventions work. Trial lawyer leaders using tests-equations
with interventions motivate institutional change by increasing homicide, mass-murder, sex-offending settlements-awards to 10−10-10−100B leading insurance professionals to modify liability contracts mandating continuing professional education in test-equation use, thus lowering premiums, bankruptcies.

Review of European Studies, 2023

Based on 95 years of data involving 320,051 patients, prisoners, students, and workers across 212... more Based on 95 years of data involving 320,051 patients, prisoners, students, and workers across 212 studies, there is a "7-point violence profile" (violence, deception, depression, antisocial behavior, paranoid or schizophrenic thinking, and addiction-alcoholism) on equations (Ask Standard Predictor of Violence Potential) and internet computer-scored tests (Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory [MMPI-2/A]) that is similar for male or female, adult, or teen, violence prone or suicidal. Using conventional methods, traditional decision-makers believe that their 39% success rate in finding violence-prone individuals is better than the 97% hit rate of equations and computer tests.

Journal of Forensic Research, Oct 30, 2013

Y outh development and violence prevention are two sides of the same public policy. The focus of ... more Y outh development and violence prevention are two sides of the same public policy. The focus of much theoretical and empirical effort is identifying delinquency risks and intervening. Given the great costs of homicide and the historically high nationwide prison population, new policies must address increasing violence and rising expenses. Treatments of prenatal care, home visitation, bullying prevention, alcohol-substance abuse education, alternative thinking promotion, mentoring, life skills training, rewards for graduation and employment, functional family and multi-systemic therapy, and multi-dimensional foster care are effective, because they ameliorate age-specific risks for delinquency. At present, these interventions only yield a 10 to 40 percent diversion from crime however. Returns on investment (ROI) vary from 1to1 to 1to98. Targeting empirical treatments to those determined to be most-at-risk, based on statistical models or actuarial testing, and using electronic surveillance for nonviolent prisoners significantly diverted youth from violence, improving ROI, while simultaneously savingcosts.

Journal of Forensic Research, Oct 30, 2013

Review of European Studies

630 Domestic-Terrorist-Mass-Murdering-Spree-Shooters are compared with 623-controls and separated... more 630 Domestic-Terrorist-Mass-Murdering-Spree-Shooters are compared with 623-controls and separated by16-Questions with significant a=.846, p<.01, AUC=.704, p<.01 that are: (1) homicidal? (2) suicidal? (3) stressful-life-event? (4) handgun-many-weapons-access? (5) violence-planning-preparing? (6) revenge-motive? (7) eliciting-others-concern? (8) intent-leakage? (9) criminal-misconduct-history? (10) personal-grievance? (11) random-violent-behavior? (12) threatening-victims? (13) dead-male-victim? (14) targeting-person-school-or-work? (15) student-professional-work-relationship? and (15) student? Before the killing, terrorists come twice to courts, doctors, schools and human resources and are not diagnosed as dangerous. In Study-1: [from 1936-2019] 232-school-shooters are contrasted with 232-controls resulting in 414-dead, 832-injured, and 68-suicides (29%) which are analyzed with logistic-regression, F= 227.14, p<.01, df=8/455, R=.894, p<.01, R2=.8, p<.01, and separated ...

Journal of health and human resources administration, 1986

1. J Health Hum Resour Adm. 1986 Spring;8(4):393-410. Managing out-patient rehabilitation facilit... more 1. J Health Hum Resour Adm. 1986 Spring;8(4):393-410. Managing out-patient rehabilitation facilities: a resource dependency perspective. Albrecht GL, Falconer J, Wilson W, Ferguson R, Zagar R. PMID: 10277656 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]. Publication Types: ...

Review of European Studies

630 Terrorist-Mass-Murdering-Spree-Shooters are compared with 623-controls and separated by 16-Qu... more 630 Terrorist-Mass-Murdering-Spree-Shooters are compared with 623-controls and separated by 16-Questions with a=.846, p<.01, AUC= .704, p<.01 that are: (1) homicidal? (2) suicidal? (3) stressful-life-event? (4) handgun-many-weapons-access? (5) violence-planning-preparing? (6) revenge? (7) eliciting-others-concern? (8) intent-leakage? (9) criminal-misconduct? (10) grievance? (11) random-violent-behavior? (12) threatening-victims? (13) dead-male-victim? (14) targeting-person-school-work? (15) student-professional-work-relationship? and (16) student? Before killing, terrorists come twice to courts-police, doctors-hospitals, schools-universities and human resources and are not diagnosed as dangerous due to error-prone current ways. In Study-1: 370-workplace-shooters (1968-2021) are contrasted with 370-controls using logistic-regression (F= 134.64, p<.01, df = 13/726, R=.84, p<.01, R2=. 71, p<.01 resulting in 14-Questions: (1) homicidal? (2) intent-leakage? (3) stressful-l...

Review of European Studies, 2022

20 May 2021 U.S. dollar cost for assault = 33,773.52;homicide,33,773.52; homicide, 33,773.52;homicide,3,834,988.08, domestic terror, ... more 20 May 2021 U.S. dollar cost for assault = 33,773.52;homicide,33,773.52; homicide, 33,773.52;homicide,3,834,988.08, domestic terror, mass murder, spree-shooting, 3 dead, 11,504,964.24,pedophilia,11,504,964.24, pedophilia, 11,504,964.24,pedophilia,139,430.28. Over 85 years, domestic-terror, mass-murder, spree-shooter assaults cost = 1 to 5,000. 33,773.52x5,000=33,773.52 x 5,000 = 33,773.52x5,000=168,867,600; dead victims = from 1 to 1,000. 3,834,988.08x1,000=3,834,988.08 x 1,000 = 3,834,988.08x1,000=3,834,988,080. 1936-2021 U.S. insurance industry mass murder costs = [$2,416,042,490 (630 @ 3,834,988.08)+3,834,988.08) + 3,834,988.08)+6,327,730,332 (1,650 @ 3,834,988.08)+3,834,988.08) + 3,834,988.08)+105,474,702.96 (3,123 @ 33,773.52)=33,773.52) = 33,773.52)=8,849,247,525.36] + [insurance, tax-increases 11,504,021,782.97(11,504,021,782.97 (11,504,021,782.97(8,849,247,525.36 x 1.3] =$20,353,269,317.93. Projecting 2021 to 2105 insurance industry no policy change (i.e., computer tests, machine learning equations), 40,706,538,616.66,3,330deaths,6,246injuries,388suicides.U.S.RomanCatholicChurchpedophiliacosts,1986−2011,40,706,538,616.66, 3,330 deaths, 6,246 injuries, 388 suicides. U.S. Roman Catholic Church pedophilia costs, 1986-2011, 40,706,538,616.66,3,330deaths,6,246injuries,388suicides.U.S.RomanCatholicChurchpedophiliacosts,1986−2011,2,486,898,000, payouts + lost-donations [($2,486,898,000.00 x 1.3) = 3,232,967,400=3,232,967,400 = 3,232,967,400=5,719,865,400 + 5,679...

Review of European Studies, 2022

Review of European Studies, 2016

The goal is to share policy implications of sensitive, specific internet-based tests in place of ... more The goal is to share policy implications of sensitive, specific internet-based tests in place of current approaches to lowering violence, namely fewer mass murders, suicides, homicides. When used, internet-based tests save lives and money. From 2009-2015, a Chicago field test had 324 fewer homicides (saving 2,089,848,548,ROI=6.42).In60yrs.,conventionalapproachesforhighriskpersons(e.g.,.inappropriatelyreleasingpoor,severelymentallyill)ledtounnecessaryexpenseincludingyearly:(a)300massmurders(592,089,848,548, ROI=6.42). In 60 yrs., conventional approaches for high risk persons (e.g.,. inappropriately releasing poor, severely mentally ill) led to unnecessary expense including yearly: (a) 300 mass murders (59% demonstrating psychiatric conditions); (b) 1-6% having costly personnel challenges; (c) 2,100,000 "revolving door" Emergency-Room (ER) psychiatric admissions (41,149 suicides, 90% mentally ill); (d) 10,000,000 prisoners (14,146 homicides, 20% psychiatric challenges). Current metrics fail [success rates from 25%-73%: (1) for background checks (25%); (2) interviews (M=46%); (3) physical exams (M=49%); (4) other tests (M=73%)]. Internet-based tests are simultaneously sensitive (97%), specific (97%), non-discriminatory, objective, inexpensive, 2,089,848,548,ROI=6.42).In60yrs.,conventionalapproachesforhighriskpersons(e.g.,.inappropriatelyreleasingpoor,severelymentallyill)ledtounnecessaryexpenseincludingyearly:(a)300massmurders(59100/test, require 2-4 hrs.

Archives of physical medicine and rehabilitation, 1983

This investigation evaluated the effectiveness of the traditional and facilitation approaches to ... more This investigation evaluated the effectiveness of the traditional and facilitation approaches to therapeutic exercise in stroke patients. A total of 42 adults (24 men and 18 women) with a mean age of 61.6 years (SD = 21) were selected from a larger population of hospitalized stroke victims. Stroke patients were classified by CT scan information and judged medically fit to participate in a nonrestrictive program by neurologic examinations and laboratory tests. The Barthel Index and the manual muscle test were administered at admission and discharge. Both facilitation and traditional exercise therapies improved functional and motor performance, but there were no significant differences between these approaches. The lack of differences between the facilitation and traditional exercise therapies may be due to heterogeneity of the stroke population, the small sample size, and the measurements used. The study demonstrates the need for a measurement instrument capable of reliably assessing...

Psychological Reports, 2009

To study risks of abuse, violence, and homicide, 181 Abused Children ( M age= 12.85 yr., SD = 2.1... more To study risks of abuse, violence, and homicide, 181 Abused Children ( M age= 12.85 yr., SD = 2.14; 58 girls, 123 boys) were matched with 181 clinic-referred Controls. Data analysis was Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression with area under curve ( AUC) and odds ratios ( OR). Predictors of abused status were court contacts ( OR = 2.04e+22) and poorer executive function ( OR = .81; AUC=.99; 95% CI = .91−.99). Groups were tracked forward in records for 9 years ( M=8.78 yr., SD =1.41). Looking forward, youth ( M age = 21.63 yr., SD = 2.07) were classified into Abused Children Later Homicidal (5%, n = 10), Abused Children Later Violent (23%, n = 41), Abused Children Later Delinquent (28%, n = 50), Abused Children Later Nondeliquent (44%, n = 80), and Controls ( n = 181). Data were analyzed with two more logistic regressions. Predictors of Abused Children Later Homicidal compared with Controls were number of court contacts ( OR =50,398.78) and poorer executive function ( OR = 79.72;...

Review of European Studies, 2022

Study 1: 630 spree-shooters [1936-2021] (1,650 deaths; 3,123 injuries; 194 suicides [31%]), 623 c... more Study 1: 630 spree-shooters [1936-2021] (1,650 deaths; 3,123 injuries; 194 suicides [31%]), 623 controls logistic regression differences (F= 260.44, df=10/1242, R=.82, R2 =.68, p<.01): (1) homicidal ideation; (2) planning-preparation; (3) stressful-life-event; (4) revenge-motive; (5) acquired-multiple-weapons; (6) elicited-concern; (7) school-location; (8) personal-grievance; (9) suicide; (10) current-student. Study 2: 15 spree-shooters differences, adult, teen: [SP] violence (F=17.48, 123.09); [MMPI-2/A] infrequency (F=92.15, 17.22); lie (F=13.13, 33.91); depression (F=37.76, 26.18); psychopathic-deviance (F=44.66, 57.45); paranoia (F=50.58, 23.92); schizophrenia (F=53.85, 21.69); alcohol (F=42.01, 16.84); addiction (F=57.34, 38.88) compared with 23 homicidal, 36 controls. Spree-shooter loss (1936-2021) = [$2,416,042,490 (630 @ 3,834,988.08)+3,834,988.08) + 3,834,988.08)+6,327,730,332 (1,650 @ 3,834,988.08)+3,834,988.08) + 3,834,988.08)+105,474,702.96 (3,123 @ 33,773.52)=33,773.52) = 33,773.52)=8,849,247,525.36] + [insurance, tax-increases 11,504,021,782.97(11,504,021,782.97 (11,504,021,782.97(8,849,247,525.36 x 1.3] =$20,353,269,308.33. Projecting 2021 to 2105 insurance industry with no computer tests, machine learning equations, 40,706,538,616.66,3,330deaths,6,246injuries,388suicides.Projecting2017U.S.Churchpedophilialoss(2012−2037,2038−2056,2057−2082,2083−2107),40,706,538,616.66, 3,330 deaths, 6,246 injuries, 388 suicides. Projecting 2017 U.S. Church pedophilia loss (2012-2037, 2038-2056, 2057-2082, 2083-2107), 40,706,538,616.66,3,330deaths,6,246injuries,388suicides.Projecting2017U.S.Churchpedophilialoss(2012−2037,2038−2056,2057−2082,2083−2107),5,719,865,400 x 5 = $28,599,327,000, 5,679 x 5 = 28,395 victims,

Review of European Studies, 2022

Review of European Studies

Analysis of 136 persons with psychopathology, suicidal ideation, and violence included: (a) 79 ad... more Analysis of 136 persons with psychopathology, suicidal ideation, and violence included: (a) 79 adults [12 homicidal, 13 overdosing-substance-abusers, 15 sex-offending, 15 suicide-completers, 24 controls (23 women, 56 men) Mage=38.29]; and (b) 57 teens [11 homicidal, 7 overdosing-substance-abusers, 10 sex-offending, 17 suicide-completers, 12 controls (15 girls, 42 boys) Mage= 15.37] given (Standard Predictor of Violence Potential (SP), Quick Test (QT), Beck Scale (BSS), MMPI-2/A, Raven Matrices). Significant (p < .05) ANOVA Fs were: (a) adults (SP, BSS, MMPI-2 [VRIN, F, FB, FP, L, K, S, Hs (1), D (2), Pd (4), Mf (5), Pa(6), Pt(7), Sc (8), Ma (9), Si (10), MAC-R, APS, AAS], Raven; and (b) teens (SP, BSS, MMPI-A [F1, F, L, K, D (2), Pa (6), Sc (8)], QT. At-risk, adults, and teens had the same “7-point violence profile” (SP -, “F/L-2-4-6-8-AAS(ACK)”) [insignificant differences (p < .05) ANOVA-Fs: SP, BSS, MMPI-2/A: F, L, K, D (2), Pd (4), Pa (6), Sc (8)].

Psychological Reports, Mar 1, 2009

To assess risks of violent offending in young adults, 425 Delinquent Assaulters ( M age = 14.1 yr... more To assess risks of violent offending in young adults, 425 Delinquent Assaulters ( M age = 14.1 yr., SD= 1.7; 77 girls, 348 boys) were matched with 425 Nonviolent Delinquents. Analysis of data from court, school, and medical records used Shao's bootstrapped logistic regressions. Predictors of Assaulter status were poorer executive function ( OR = 0.97) and prior court contacts for violent offenses ( OR = 3.5e+ 23; AUC=.97; 95% CI = .82−.99). Looking in records backward 4 years ( M = 4.1, SD = 2.6) and forward 10 years to mean age 24.5 yr. ( SD = 2.1), adults were classified as Homicidal (8%, n = 69); Delinquent Assaulters Later Adult Assaulters (10%, n = 86); Delinquent Assaulters Later Noncriminals (32%, n = 270); Nonviolent Delinquents Later Nonviolent Criminals (10%, n = 87); and Nonviolent Delinquents Later Noncriminals (40%, n = 338). The Homicidal group ( n = 69) was compared to matched Control and Nonviolent Delinquent groups ( n = 69) using logistic regression. Predictors of Homicidal versus Control were poorer executive function and alcohol or substance abuse ( AUC=.97; 95%CI =.93−.99). Predictors of Homicidal versus Nonviolent Delinquents were unemployment, poorer executive function, and prior court contacts ( AUC=.98; 95%CI=.95−.99).

Psychological Reports, Dec 1, 2010

Data from youth (n = 1,127), adults (n = 1,595), and individuals (N = 2,722, combined youth and a... more Data from youth (n = 1,127), adults (n = 1,595), and individuals (N = 2,722, combined youth and adults) were followed 3 to 12 years in records to develop items to predict abuse, violence, and homicide in these 3 relevant groups for risk appraisal or safety scales. Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression yielded 14 predictors for youth (AUC = .91), 11 for adults (AUC = .99), and 13 for individuals (AUC = .96). Three regression equations were cross-validated with in-bag and outof-bag techniques. Pearson coefficients were computed with intelligence, achievement, adaptive behavior, and perception tests. Test-retest reliability was acceptable. Using case-control quasi-experimental design, this study extends probation-parole decision-making tests to infants and children as young as 3 years, with convergent and divergent validity and reliability with other tests. Sensitivity and specificity were high and minimized over-or under-identification challenges in identifying potentially violent persons in the general population.

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There have been many attempts to explain violent behavior, identify its causes, and predict its o... more There have been many attempts to explain violent behavior, identify its causes, and predict its occurrence among youth and adults. Research and theoretical constructions have dealt with such far-ranging aspects as childhood health, peer and parental interactions, neuropsychological function, school and community support, and substance use and dependency. Theories have tended to focus on one or a few of these aspects, but there is an effort by many researchers to converge on an integrated approach. By demonstrating unique risk patterns in random samples of later-homicidal abused infants, children, and youth, violent and homicidal delinquents, and homicidal adults, five studies by Zagar and colleagues provide the best current empirical evidence for a view of the development of delinquency as a process of accumulating risks. These risks begin with prenatal substance exposure and continue with abusive or neglectful parenting, academic failure, court contacts, compromised executive function and resultant poor social functioning. Analysis by sex shows that males' and females' risks are virtually identical. Various theories are evaluated with respect to these empirical risk patterns for development of violence and homicide. A proposal for the necessary elements of a successful, overarching explanatory theory is offered.

Review of European Studies, 2024

Review of European Studies, 2023

Journal of Forensic Research, Oct 30, 2013

Review of European Studies

Journal of health and human resources administration, 1986

Review of European Studies

Review of European Studies, 2022

Review of European Studies, 2016

Archives of physical medicine and rehabilitation, 1983

Psychological Reports, 2009

Review of European Studies, 2022

Review of European Studies

Psychological Reports, Mar 1, 2009

Psychological Reports, Dec 1, 2010

Http Dx Doi Org 10 2466 Pr0 104 1 199 245, Aug 11, 2010