yves smeers | UCLouvain (University of Louvain) (original) (raw)
Papers by yves smeers
The Energy Journal, Sep 1, 2021
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Operations Research, 2021
An OR look into zonal integration of electricity markets
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Energies, 2020
Scenario studies of energy transition generally point to the central role of electricity. This no... more Scenario studies of energy transition generally point to the central role of electricity. This notion is ambiguous as its interpretation can range from an electricity-only policy to portfolios of different energy vectors with a dominance of electricity. This ambiguity adds to the uncertainty that already pervades today’s investment environment. This paper examines the centrality of electricity through a so-called “variational scenario” analysis with policies obtained by a mix of electricity-only and green gas penetration while maintaining constant decarbonization objectives. Electricity is a complex product that can only be further complicated by the high penetration of renewables and its interaction with the production and use of synthetic fuels. The variational scenario analysis is conducted with sufficiently fine (hourly) granularity to produce an adequate representation of these phenomena. It shows that tilting the central role of electricity to a mix of electricity and green ga...
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We consider an electricity market with two consumer segments subject to different price regimes. ... more We consider an electricity market with two consumer segments subject to different price regimes. We formulate the problem of operations and investment in this market as a spatial equilibrium model where generators can develop new capacities subject to different regional constraints; transmission is organized on a flowgate basis and CO2 emissions are ruled by an overall cap and trade system where tradable allowances are auctioned. The consumer market in each region is decomposed in two segments: Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs) that participate in the cap and trade system and the rest of the market (N-EIIs). EIIs purchase electricity from dedicated base-load power plants at average cost prices, while N-EIIs are supplied at marginal cost. This organization, currently foreseen in some national laws in Europe, reflects a demand of European EIIs to partially mitigate the burden of emission charges and higher electricity prices due to CO2 regulation. We study two different types of long...
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Économie publique/Public economics, 2005
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Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, 2002
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European Journal of Operational Research, 2019
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Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 2019
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The horizontal integration of the energy market and the organization of transmission services rem... more The horizontal integration of the energy market and the organization of transmission services remain two open issues in the restructured European electricity sector. The coupling of the French, Belgian and Dutch electricity markets (the trilateral market) in November 2006 was a real success that the inclusion of Germany to the trilateral market should soon prolong. But the extension of market coupling whether in Central Western Europe or in other European regions encounters several difficulties and the future remains far from clear. The highly meshed grid of continental Europe complicates things and it is now sometimes recognized that the penetration of wind will further exacerbate these difficulties. The nodal system could go a long way towards solving these problems, but its implementation is not yet foreseen in the EU. This paper analyzes versions of market coupling that differ by the organization of counter- trading. While underplayed in current discussions, counter-trading will...
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2015 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 2015
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2004
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Environmental Fiscal Reform and Unemployment, 1996
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This paper considers the general problem of optimal timing of the exchange of the sum of n Ito-di... more This paper considers the general problem of optimal timing of the exchange of the sum of n Ito-diffusions for the sum of m others (e.g., the optimal time to exchange a geometric Brownian motion for a geometric mean reverting process). We first contribute to the literature by providing analytical sufficient conditions and necessary conditions for optimal stopping (i.e. sub- and super- sets of the stopping region) for some sub-cases of the general problem. We then exhibit a connection between the problem of finding sufficient conditions for optimal stopping and linear programming. This connection provides a unified approach which does not only allow to recover previous analytically determinable subsets of the stopping region, but also allows to characterize (more complex) subsets of the stopping region that do not have an analytical expression. In the particular case where all assets are geometric Brownian motions, this connection gives us new insights. In particular, it simplifies th...
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RAIRO - Operations Research, 2014
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011
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Articles, 1985
Nous examinons les possibilités d’utilisation des modèles d’optimisation de flux énergétiques dan... more Nous examinons les possibilités d’utilisation des modèles d’optimisation de flux énergétiques dans des systèmes intégrés incluant des modèles de demande économétriques, d’optimisation ou de simulation. La discussion est conduite à partir des modèles MARKAL et EFOM.
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Operations Research, 2011
We cast models of the generation capacity expansion type formally developed for the monopoly regi... more We cast models of the generation capacity expansion type formally developed for the monopoly regime into equilibrium models better adapted for a competitive environment. We focus on some of the risks faced today by investors in generation capacity and thus pose the problem as a stochastic equilibrium model. We illustrate the approach on the problem of the incentive to invest. Agents can be risk neutral or risk averse. We model risk aversion through the CVaR of plants' profit. The CVaR induces risk-adjusted probabilities according to which investors value their plants. The model is formulated as a complementarity problem (including the CVaR valuation of investments). An illustration is provided on a small problem that captures several features of today's electricity world: a choice often restricted to coal and gas units, a peaky load curve because of wind penetration, uncertain fuel prices, and an evolving carbon market. We assess the potential of the approach by comparing en...
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Management Science, 2000
The problem of distributing gas through a network of pipelines is formulated as a cost minimizati... more The problem of distributing gas through a network of pipelines is formulated as a cost minimization subject to nonlinear flow-pressure relations, material balances, and pressure bounds. The solution method is based on piecewise linear approximations of the nonlinear flow-pressure relations. The approximated problem is solved by an extension of the Simplex method. The solution method is tested on real-world data and compared with alternative solution methods.
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Journal of Regulatory Economics, 2012
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The Energy Journal, Sep 1, 2021
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Operations Research, 2021
An OR look into zonal integration of electricity markets
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Energies, 2020
Scenario studies of energy transition generally point to the central role of electricity. This no... more Scenario studies of energy transition generally point to the central role of electricity. This notion is ambiguous as its interpretation can range from an electricity-only policy to portfolios of different energy vectors with a dominance of electricity. This ambiguity adds to the uncertainty that already pervades today’s investment environment. This paper examines the centrality of electricity through a so-called “variational scenario” analysis with policies obtained by a mix of electricity-only and green gas penetration while maintaining constant decarbonization objectives. Electricity is a complex product that can only be further complicated by the high penetration of renewables and its interaction with the production and use of synthetic fuels. The variational scenario analysis is conducted with sufficiently fine (hourly) granularity to produce an adequate representation of these phenomena. It shows that tilting the central role of electricity to a mix of electricity and green ga...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
We consider an electricity market with two consumer segments subject to different price regimes. ... more We consider an electricity market with two consumer segments subject to different price regimes. We formulate the problem of operations and investment in this market as a spatial equilibrium model where generators can develop new capacities subject to different regional constraints; transmission is organized on a flowgate basis and CO2 emissions are ruled by an overall cap and trade system where tradable allowances are auctioned. The consumer market in each region is decomposed in two segments: Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs) that participate in the cap and trade system and the rest of the market (N-EIIs). EIIs purchase electricity from dedicated base-load power plants at average cost prices, while N-EIIs are supplied at marginal cost. This organization, currently foreseen in some national laws in Europe, reflects a demand of European EIIs to partially mitigate the burden of emission charges and higher electricity prices due to CO2 regulation. We study two different types of long...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Économie publique/Public economics, 2005
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, 2002
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
European Journal of Operational Research, 2019
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 2019
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
The horizontal integration of the energy market and the organization of transmission services rem... more The horizontal integration of the energy market and the organization of transmission services remain two open issues in the restructured European electricity sector. The coupling of the French, Belgian and Dutch electricity markets (the trilateral market) in November 2006 was a real success that the inclusion of Germany to the trilateral market should soon prolong. But the extension of market coupling whether in Central Western Europe or in other European regions encounters several difficulties and the future remains far from clear. The highly meshed grid of continental Europe complicates things and it is now sometimes recognized that the penetration of wind will further exacerbate these difficulties. The nodal system could go a long way towards solving these problems, but its implementation is not yet foreseen in the EU. This paper analyzes versions of market coupling that differ by the organization of counter- trading. While underplayed in current discussions, counter-trading will...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
2015 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 2015
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2004
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Environmental Fiscal Reform and Unemployment, 1996
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
This paper considers the general problem of optimal timing of the exchange of the sum of n Ito-di... more This paper considers the general problem of optimal timing of the exchange of the sum of n Ito-diffusions for the sum of m others (e.g., the optimal time to exchange a geometric Brownian motion for a geometric mean reverting process). We first contribute to the literature by providing analytical sufficient conditions and necessary conditions for optimal stopping (i.e. sub- and super- sets of the stopping region) for some sub-cases of the general problem. We then exhibit a connection between the problem of finding sufficient conditions for optimal stopping and linear programming. This connection provides a unified approach which does not only allow to recover previous analytically determinable subsets of the stopping region, but also allows to characterize (more complex) subsets of the stopping region that do not have an analytical expression. In the particular case where all assets are geometric Brownian motions, this connection gives us new insights. In particular, it simplifies th...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
RAIRO - Operations Research, 2014
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Articles, 1985
Nous examinons les possibilités d’utilisation des modèles d’optimisation de flux énergétiques dan... more Nous examinons les possibilités d’utilisation des modèles d’optimisation de flux énergétiques dans des systèmes intégrés incluant des modèles de demande économétriques, d’optimisation ou de simulation. La discussion est conduite à partir des modèles MARKAL et EFOM.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Operations Research, 2011
We cast models of the generation capacity expansion type formally developed for the monopoly regi... more We cast models of the generation capacity expansion type formally developed for the monopoly regime into equilibrium models better adapted for a competitive environment. We focus on some of the risks faced today by investors in generation capacity and thus pose the problem as a stochastic equilibrium model. We illustrate the approach on the problem of the incentive to invest. Agents can be risk neutral or risk averse. We model risk aversion through the CVaR of plants' profit. The CVaR induces risk-adjusted probabilities according to which investors value their plants. The model is formulated as a complementarity problem (including the CVaR valuation of investments). An illustration is provided on a small problem that captures several features of today's electricity world: a choice often restricted to coal and gas units, a peaky load curve because of wind penetration, uncertain fuel prices, and an evolving carbon market. We assess the potential of the approach by comparing en...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Management Science, 2000
The problem of distributing gas through a network of pipelines is formulated as a cost minimizati... more The problem of distributing gas through a network of pipelines is formulated as a cost minimization subject to nonlinear flow-pressure relations, material balances, and pressure bounds. The solution method is based on piecewise linear approximations of the nonlinear flow-pressure relations. The approximated problem is solved by an extension of the Simplex method. The solution method is tested on real-world data and compared with alternative solution methods.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Regulatory Economics, 2012
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