Erdal Erol | University of Kentucky (original) (raw)

Papers by Erdal Erol

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2024

This study explores the economics of culling decisions in cow-calf operations in the Southern U.S... more This study explores the economics of culling decisions in cow-calf operations in the Southern U.S. with a novel application of a dynamic mathematical programing model. The results provide an optimal culling strategy under the base model and a range of optimal strategies that vary with respect to different components such as fertility probabilities, prices, replacement costs, and pregnancy checking. The results suggest that producers should cull all cows that are older than age 10 and cows that fail to calve once they reach the age of 7. The sensitivity analysis underlines the impact of market conditions, replacement costs, and pregnancy check use on the optimal culling decisions.

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2024

The major aim of this study is to find out the best models which identifies the determinants of f... more The major aim of this study is to find out the best models which identifies the determinants of food inflation in Turkey over the period 2003(1)-2013(12). To this end, a linear ARIMAX model is constructed by adopting an exhaustive search algorithm that is designed to select the model with most appropriate food inflation correlates. The best two models out of all candidate models having the minimum AIC and BIC values are evaluated in the estimation and prediction analyses. Roughly, our empirical results reveal that the main determinants of food inflation in Turkey are supply related factors such as producer prices of agriculture and food industry and price of water used in production. Moreover, exchange rate included in both models can be also classified as supply related variables due to its indirect effect on the input prices. To explore further the prediction performance of the selected models, a validation exercise is implemented for 2013-2014 and RMSE and MAE values of the model...

Sustainability

This research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of vertical price ... more This research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of vertical price transmission in the U.S. beef industry using monthly farm, wholesale, and retail prices for the period 1970–2021. Contemporary time-series techniques and historical decomposition graphs were used to test for possible asymmetries and structural breaks in the price transmission across the beef supply chain. The results show that the impact of COVID-19 has been uneven across the beef marketing channel, with consumers and farmers sharing the burden of the shock. Historical decomposition graphs demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic caused consumers paying higher prices, but farmers receiving lower prices than their predicted values. Hence, both consumers and farmers in the U.S. beef supply chain were adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the results detected asymmetric price adjustments along the U.S. beef supply chain, both in speeds and magnitudes, with the wholesale p...

Sustainability, 2022

This research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of vertical price ... more This research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of vertical
price transmission in the U.S. beef industry using monthly farm, wholesale, and retail prices for
the period 1970–2021. Contemporary time-series techniques and historical decomposition graphs
were used to test for possible asymmetries and structural breaks in the price transmission across
the beef supply chain. The results show that the impact of COVID-19 has been uneven across the
beef marketing channel, with consumers and farmers sharing the burden of the shock. Historical
decomposition graphs demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic caused consumers paying higher
prices, but farmers receiving lower prices than their predicted values. Hence, both consumers
and farmers in the U.S. beef supply chain were adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Furthermore, the results detected asymmetric price adjustments along the U.S. beef supply chain,
both in speeds and magnitudes, with the wholesale prices being more flexible, adjusting quicker
than farm and retail prices. The results indicated that the U.S. beef markets were resilient enough to
absorb the shock and return to their pre-shock patterns in 4 to 6 months. These results have welfare
and policy implications for the U.S. beef industry.

Agriculture and agricultural foreign trade has been a crucial policy area in overall economy and ... more Agriculture and agricultural foreign trade has been a crucial policy area in overall economy and EU membership process. The purpose of this study is to manifest the structure of Turkish agricultural foreign trade in terms of basic trade indicators by using trade data classified according to different trade data classifications for 1990-2013 period, and analyse structural situation and problems using indexes composed from this data. Furthermore, there achieved some findings through legislation and literature review to manifest the position of agricultural trade in EU membership process and its effects faced by agricultural trade in this period. The results of this study revealed through performed analysis, are; ( a) classifications used and intra-industry trade are both important issues in evaluations of agricultural foreign trade data; (b) there exists a plant production and processed food based on this production dependent structure in export; (c) there is a substantial level of foreign-source dependency in agricultural inputs and; (d) EU membership process has had limited effect on agricultural foreign trade. This EU Expertise Thesis is prepared in collaboration with EU Expert Seçil Adalet GÖK, as thesis advisor.

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2024

Sustainability

Sustainability, 2022

This research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of vertical price ... more This research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of vertical
price transmission in the U.S. beef industry using monthly farm, wholesale, and retail prices for
the period 1970–2021. Contemporary time-series techniques and historical decomposition graphs
were used to test for possible asymmetries and structural breaks in the price transmission across
the beef supply chain. The results show that the impact of COVID-19 has been uneven across the
beef marketing channel, with consumers and farmers sharing the burden of the shock. Historical
decomposition graphs demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic caused consumers paying higher
prices, but farmers receiving lower prices than their predicted values. Hence, both consumers
and farmers in the U.S. beef supply chain were adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Furthermore, the results detected asymmetric price adjustments along the U.S. beef supply chain,
both in speeds and magnitudes, with the wholesale prices being more flexible, adjusting quicker
than farm and retail prices. The results indicated that the U.S. beef markets were resilient enough to
absorb the shock and return to their pre-shock patterns in 4 to 6 months. These results have welfare
and policy implications for the U.S. beef industry.