Giovanni Carbone | Università degli Studi di Milano - State University of Milan (Italy) (original) (raw)
Papers by Giovanni Carbone
Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 2001
Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the development of sub-Saharan Africa. The r... more Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the development of sub-Saharan Africa. The region has been going through important transformations, with both political landscapes and economic trajectories becoming increasingly diverse. The changes underway include the role of leadership and its broader impact. This volume argues that, on the whole, African leaders and the way they reach power generally do contribute to shaping their countries' progresses and achievements. It also zooms in on some influential African leaders who recently emerged in key states across the continent, illustrating and explaining the individual paths that brought them to power while reflecting on the prospects for their governments' actions. Far from the simplistic stereotypes of immovable, ineffective and greedy rulers, the resulting picture reveals dynamic and rapidly evolving political scenarios with key implications for development in the region.
Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 2001
The EU is struggling to cope with the so-called "migration crisis" that has emerged ove... more The EU is struggling to cope with the so-called "migration crisis" that has emerged over the past few years. Designing the right policies to address immigration requires a deep understanding of its root causes. Why do Africans decide to leave their home countries? While the dream of a better life in Europe is likely part of the explanation, one also needs to examine the prevailing living conditions in the large and heterogeneous sub-Saharan region. This Report investigates the actual role of political, economic, demographic and environmental drivers in current migration flows. It offers a comprehensive picture of major migration motives as well as of key trends. Attention is also devoted to the role of climate change in promoting migration and to intra-continental mobility (two-thirds of sub-Saharan migrant flows start and end within the region). Two country studies on Eritrea and Nigeria are also included to get a closer sense of local developments behind large-scale migr...
Democratization, 2021
Do elections turn people into democratic citizens? Elections have long been seen as a way to fost... more Do elections turn people into democratic citizens? Elections have long been seen as a way to foster democracy, development and security in Africa, with many hoping that the secret ballot would transform states. Adopting a new approach that focusses on the moral economy of elections, Nic Cheeseman, Gabrielle Lynch and Justin Willis show how elections are shaped by competing visions of what it means to be a good leader, bureaucrat or citizen. Using a mixed-methods study of elections in Ghana, Kenya and Uganda, they explore moral claims made by officials, politicians, civil society, international observers and voters themselves. This radical new lens reveals that elections are the site of intense moral contestation, which helps to explain why there is such vigourous participation in processes that often seem flawed. Demonstrating the impact of these debates on six decades of electoral practice, they explain why the behaviour of those involved so frequently transgresses national law and international norms, as well as the ways in which such transgressions are evaluated and critiqued – so that despite the purported significance of 'vote-buying', the candidates that spend the most do not always win
Political Leadership in Africa, 2020
European Political Science, 2017
African politics long revolved around 'personal rulers' who either overstayed in office or were q... more African politics long revolved around 'personal rulers' who either overstayed in office or were quickly ousted by coups. The multiparty reforms of the 1990s were meant to change and regularise the way in which African rulers access and are removed from office. There is, however, a dearth of systematic data through which the evolution and implications of leadership transitions can be examined. We thus built a comprehensive Africa Leadership Change (ALC) dataset covering all 54 countries in the continent from 1960 to 2015. The dataset provides information for all leaders who held power in the region, the modes of access to leadership and several other key election and regime variables. An exploratory analysis illustrates how Africa's reforms affected the dynamics and timing of leaders' replacement, as well as their socioeconomic implications. A comparison with existing datasets shows that ALC is more suitable for investigating leadership transitions in Africa.
Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement took power in Uganda in 1986 and established w... more Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement took power in Uganda in 1986 and established what it called 'movement' or 'no-party' democracy. Reacting to a history of ethnic conflict-prone parties, the NRM aimed at transforming electoral politics into individual rather than organisational competition. Party activities became subject to strict limitations. The actual functioning of Uganda's alleged 'alternative democratic model' has not been systematically empirically scrutinised. Understanding how it is working is not only an important topic in comparative political analysis but also for appraising external donors' policy. Despite the pressures placed on other African countries to open up to organised pluralism, donors have been uncritically supportive of Museveni's regime, failing to examine the extent to which 'no-partism' can be an authentic alternative to multiparty democracy. This thesis critically investigates the no-party arrangement, both empirically and normatively. It is based on extensive fieldwork carried out in Uganda in 1999 and 2000, when interviews were conducted with parliamentarians, political organisations' officials, NGO representatives, and various policy-makers. The research reconstructs the advent of 'no-partism' in the light of the Movement's reading of the country's political history. It investigates the extent to which party-like organisations retain a presence by mapping them empirically. Finally, it analyses the way 'no-partism' works by scrutinising how political action is organised during elections, in parliament, and in policy-making. The thesis demonstrates that the no-party system is largely no longer in place - since the Movement itself has adopted a party-like organisation. Uganda currently has a 'hegemonic party system'. Opposition parties, despite the legal ban, have tried to adopt new organisational stratagems. But the ban also prompted the emergence of alternative arrangements to surrogate party activities, as it is most apparent in an atomised parliament that mainly fails to operate effectively without formal political parties.
In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one ... more In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most dynamic and intriguing regions on the African continent. The political processes currently under way – including the recent conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region – have deep implications that reflect on the domestic equilibria within the area's core states – Ethiopia itself, but also Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – as well as on the relations among them. The nature and extent of involvement by external, non-African players is bound to be affected too.<br> How is the Horn of Africa changing, following the leadership transition in Ethiopia? What are the main political and security prospects for the region and for the states belonging to it? And how will ongoing dynamics impact on European political strategies? <em><strong>ISPI.</strong></em> L'ISPI è un think tank indipendente dedicato allo studio delle dinamiche politiche ed economiche ...
Africa Spectrum
Elections do not always advance democratisation, yet they can. We outline a democratisation-by-el... more Elections do not always advance democratisation, yet they can. We outline a democratisation-by-elections model according to which the opportunities for political change opened up by each electoral round build on previous election-related democratic progress. We focus on Nigeria, interpret the recent executive turnover in light of previous elections, and set the country within the comparative context of Africa's democratisation. Using a new Africa Leadership Change dataset, we use election-related events to examine the diverse routes that African regimes have taken since 1990. The analysis highlights two major syndromes: democratic stagnation and recession. In a sizeable group, however, the institutionalisation of democracy has been making gradual progress. While there is no predetermined way to advance democracy, the reiteration of elections can be instrumental in such advancement.
, at a packed venue at the Trade Fair Centre of Accra, a close contest was held to elect the new ... more , at a packed venue at the Trade Fair Centre of Accra, a close contest was held to elect the new chairman of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Taking place after Jerry Rawlings left office and the party was defeated at the 2000 elections, the 5 th NDC general meeting was labelled a "make or break party Congress". 1 At the end of a heated 29hour non-stop conference, the tight race for the party chairmanship enthroned Dr Obed Asamoah, who ran on a post-Rawlings political platform: with 334 preferences, he was just two votes ahead of the candidate sponsored by the former president. Was it truly the case that, as a Ghanaian daily newspaper anticipated, Asamoah's success "brought home a few truths to the ex-President-that the NDC as a party is bigger than him (Rawlings)"? 2
Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace ... more Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace Agreement, signed in Rome by president Joaquim Chissano and guerrilla leader Afonso Dhlakama, marked the beginning of a 'pacted' and fundamentally successful process of democratic change in M ozambique. 1 The country's first pluralist elections, held in 1994, established a formally competitive system, which opened the political arena to the guerrillas of the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo). Democratic reform was instrumental to the pacification of the country and, with peace and stability restored all over the territory, came dividends in the form of resumed economic activities and impressive rates of growth. Nevertheless, Mozambique remains among the poorest countries in the world. Its achievements over the last decade are emphasised by the striking contrast with the failed political transition of its twin country, Angola. The political trajectories of these former Portuguese colonies-where Marx-Leninist regimes were introduced at ind ependence in 1975, prompting former Southern Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa to sponsor civil conflicts-began to diverge in the early 1990s. While Mozambicans swiftly moved towards peace and pluralist politics, Angola's negotiated settlement failed w hen guerrilla leader Jonas Savimbi withdrew from the electoral process in 1992. As his Unión Nacional para la Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA) rebels resumed fighting, the country was plunged into ten years of renewed devastation before a second opportunity for peace emerged in early 2002, following Savimbi's death in combat. The failure of political reforms prevented pacification in Angola and, alongside thousands of lives, another decade was lost with no signs of development.
Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace ... more Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace Agreement, signed in Rome by president Joaquim Chissano and guerrilla leader Afonso Dhlakama, marked the beginning of a 'pacted' and fundamentally successful process of democratic change in M ozambique. 1 The country's first pluralist elections, held in 1994, established a formally competitive system, which opened the political arena to the guerrillas of the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo). Democratic reform was instrumental to the pacification of the country and, with peace and stability restored all over the territory, came dividends in the form of resumed economic activities and impressive rates of growth. Nevertheless, Mozambique remains among the poorest countries in the world. Its achievements over the last decade are emphasised by the striking contrast with the failed political transition of its twin country, Angola. The political trajectories of these former Portuguese colonies-where Marx-Leninist regimes were introduced at ind ependence in 1975, prompting former Southern Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa to sponsor civil conflicts-began to diverge in the early 1990s. While Mozambicans swiftly moved towards peace and pluralist politics, Angola's negotiated settlement failed w hen guerrilla leader Jonas Savimbi withdrew from the electoral process in 1992. As his Unión Nacional para la Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA) rebels resumed fighting, the country was plunged into ten years of renewed devastation before a second opportunity for peace emerged in early 2002, following Savimbi's death in combat. The failure of political reforms prevented pacification in Angola and, alongside thousands of lives, another decade was lost with no signs of development.
Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 2001
Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the development of sub-Saharan Africa. The r... more Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the development of sub-Saharan Africa. The region has been going through important transformations, with both political landscapes and economic trajectories becoming increasingly diverse. The changes underway include the role of leadership and its broader impact. This volume argues that, on the whole, African leaders and the way they reach power generally do contribute to shaping their countries' progresses and achievements. It also zooms in on some influential African leaders who recently emerged in key states across the continent, illustrating and explaining the individual paths that brought them to power while reflecting on the prospects for their governments' actions. Far from the simplistic stereotypes of immovable, ineffective and greedy rulers, the resulting picture reveals dynamic and rapidly evolving political scenarios with key implications for development in the region.
Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 2001
The EU is struggling to cope with the so-called "migration crisis" that has emerged ove... more The EU is struggling to cope with the so-called "migration crisis" that has emerged over the past few years. Designing the right policies to address immigration requires a deep understanding of its root causes. Why do Africans decide to leave their home countries? While the dream of a better life in Europe is likely part of the explanation, one also needs to examine the prevailing living conditions in the large and heterogeneous sub-Saharan region. This Report investigates the actual role of political, economic, demographic and environmental drivers in current migration flows. It offers a comprehensive picture of major migration motives as well as of key trends. Attention is also devoted to the role of climate change in promoting migration and to intra-continental mobility (two-thirds of sub-Saharan migrant flows start and end within the region). Two country studies on Eritrea and Nigeria are also included to get a closer sense of local developments behind large-scale migr...
Democratization, 2021
Do elections turn people into democratic citizens? Elections have long been seen as a way to fost... more Do elections turn people into democratic citizens? Elections have long been seen as a way to foster democracy, development and security in Africa, with many hoping that the secret ballot would transform states. Adopting a new approach that focusses on the moral economy of elections, Nic Cheeseman, Gabrielle Lynch and Justin Willis show how elections are shaped by competing visions of what it means to be a good leader, bureaucrat or citizen. Using a mixed-methods study of elections in Ghana, Kenya and Uganda, they explore moral claims made by officials, politicians, civil society, international observers and voters themselves. This radical new lens reveals that elections are the site of intense moral contestation, which helps to explain why there is such vigourous participation in processes that often seem flawed. Demonstrating the impact of these debates on six decades of electoral practice, they explain why the behaviour of those involved so frequently transgresses national law and international norms, as well as the ways in which such transgressions are evaluated and critiqued – so that despite the purported significance of 'vote-buying', the candidates that spend the most do not always win
Political Leadership in Africa, 2020
European Political Science, 2017
African politics long revolved around 'personal rulers' who either overstayed in office or were q... more African politics long revolved around 'personal rulers' who either overstayed in office or were quickly ousted by coups. The multiparty reforms of the 1990s were meant to change and regularise the way in which African rulers access and are removed from office. There is, however, a dearth of systematic data through which the evolution and implications of leadership transitions can be examined. We thus built a comprehensive Africa Leadership Change (ALC) dataset covering all 54 countries in the continent from 1960 to 2015. The dataset provides information for all leaders who held power in the region, the modes of access to leadership and several other key election and regime variables. An exploratory analysis illustrates how Africa's reforms affected the dynamics and timing of leaders' replacement, as well as their socioeconomic implications. A comparison with existing datasets shows that ALC is more suitable for investigating leadership transitions in Africa.
Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement took power in Uganda in 1986 and established w... more Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement took power in Uganda in 1986 and established what it called 'movement' or 'no-party' democracy. Reacting to a history of ethnic conflict-prone parties, the NRM aimed at transforming electoral politics into individual rather than organisational competition. Party activities became subject to strict limitations. The actual functioning of Uganda's alleged 'alternative democratic model' has not been systematically empirically scrutinised. Understanding how it is working is not only an important topic in comparative political analysis but also for appraising external donors' policy. Despite the pressures placed on other African countries to open up to organised pluralism, donors have been uncritically supportive of Museveni's regime, failing to examine the extent to which 'no-partism' can be an authentic alternative to multiparty democracy. This thesis critically investigates the no-party arrangement, both empirically and normatively. It is based on extensive fieldwork carried out in Uganda in 1999 and 2000, when interviews were conducted with parliamentarians, political organisations' officials, NGO representatives, and various policy-makers. The research reconstructs the advent of 'no-partism' in the light of the Movement's reading of the country's political history. It investigates the extent to which party-like organisations retain a presence by mapping them empirically. Finally, it analyses the way 'no-partism' works by scrutinising how political action is organised during elections, in parliament, and in policy-making. The thesis demonstrates that the no-party system is largely no longer in place - since the Movement itself has adopted a party-like organisation. Uganda currently has a 'hegemonic party system'. Opposition parties, despite the legal ban, have tried to adopt new organisational stratagems. But the ban also prompted the emergence of alternative arrangements to surrogate party activities, as it is most apparent in an atomised parliament that mainly fails to operate effectively without formal political parties.
In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one ... more In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most dynamic and intriguing regions on the African continent. The political processes currently under way – including the recent conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region – have deep implications that reflect on the domestic equilibria within the area's core states – Ethiopia itself, but also Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – as well as on the relations among them. The nature and extent of involvement by external, non-African players is bound to be affected too.<br> How is the Horn of Africa changing, following the leadership transition in Ethiopia? What are the main political and security prospects for the region and for the states belonging to it? And how will ongoing dynamics impact on European political strategies? <em><strong>ISPI.</strong></em> L'ISPI è un think tank indipendente dedicato allo studio delle dinamiche politiche ed economiche ...
Africa Spectrum
Elections do not always advance democratisation, yet they can. We outline a democratisation-by-el... more Elections do not always advance democratisation, yet they can. We outline a democratisation-by-elections model according to which the opportunities for political change opened up by each electoral round build on previous election-related democratic progress. We focus on Nigeria, interpret the recent executive turnover in light of previous elections, and set the country within the comparative context of Africa's democratisation. Using a new Africa Leadership Change dataset, we use election-related events to examine the diverse routes that African regimes have taken since 1990. The analysis highlights two major syndromes: democratic stagnation and recession. In a sizeable group, however, the institutionalisation of democracy has been making gradual progress. While there is no predetermined way to advance democracy, the reiteration of elections can be instrumental in such advancement.
, at a packed venue at the Trade Fair Centre of Accra, a close contest was held to elect the new ... more , at a packed venue at the Trade Fair Centre of Accra, a close contest was held to elect the new chairman of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Taking place after Jerry Rawlings left office and the party was defeated at the 2000 elections, the 5 th NDC general meeting was labelled a "make or break party Congress". 1 At the end of a heated 29hour non-stop conference, the tight race for the party chairmanship enthroned Dr Obed Asamoah, who ran on a post-Rawlings political platform: with 334 preferences, he was just two votes ahead of the candidate sponsored by the former president. Was it truly the case that, as a Ghanaian daily newspaper anticipated, Asamoah's success "brought home a few truths to the ex-President-that the NDC as a party is bigger than him (Rawlings)"? 2
Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace ... more Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace Agreement, signed in Rome by president Joaquim Chissano and guerrilla leader Afonso Dhlakama, marked the beginning of a 'pacted' and fundamentally successful process of democratic change in M ozambique. 1 The country's first pluralist elections, held in 1994, established a formally competitive system, which opened the political arena to the guerrillas of the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo). Democratic reform was instrumental to the pacification of the country and, with peace and stability restored all over the territory, came dividends in the form of resumed economic activities and impressive rates of growth. Nevertheless, Mozambique remains among the poorest countries in the world. Its achievements over the last decade are emphasised by the striking contrast with the failed political transition of its twin country, Angola. The political trajectories of these former Portuguese colonies-where Marx-Leninist regimes were introduced at ind ependence in 1975, prompting former Southern Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa to sponsor civil conflicts-began to diverge in the early 1990s. While Mozambicans swiftly moved towards peace and pluralist politics, Angola's negotiated settlement failed w hen guerrilla leader Jonas Savimbi withdrew from the electoral process in 1992. As his Unión Nacional para la Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA) rebels resumed fighting, the country was plunged into ten years of renewed devastation before a second opportunity for peace emerged in early 2002, following Savimbi's death in combat. The failure of political reforms prevented pacification in Angola and, alongside thousands of lives, another decade was lost with no signs of development.
Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace ... more Taking everybody on board: multiparty politics as an instrument for peace The 1992 General Peace Agreement, signed in Rome by president Joaquim Chissano and guerrilla leader Afonso Dhlakama, marked the beginning of a 'pacted' and fundamentally successful process of democratic change in M ozambique. 1 The country's first pluralist elections, held in 1994, established a formally competitive system, which opened the political arena to the guerrillas of the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo). Democratic reform was instrumental to the pacification of the country and, with peace and stability restored all over the territory, came dividends in the form of resumed economic activities and impressive rates of growth. Nevertheless, Mozambique remains among the poorest countries in the world. Its achievements over the last decade are emphasised by the striking contrast with the failed political transition of its twin country, Angola. The political trajectories of these former Portuguese colonies-where Marx-Leninist regimes were introduced at ind ependence in 1975, prompting former Southern Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa to sponsor civil conflicts-began to diverge in the early 1990s. While Mozambicans swiftly moved towards peace and pluralist politics, Angola's negotiated settlement failed w hen guerrilla leader Jonas Savimbi withdrew from the electoral process in 1992. As his Unión Nacional para la Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA) rebels resumed fighting, the country was plunged into ten years of renewed devastation before a second opportunity for peace emerged in early 2002, following Savimbi's death in combat. The failure of political reforms prevented pacification in Angola and, alongside thousands of lives, another decade was lost with no signs of development.