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Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive ... more Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive years of robust growth during the period 2006-2010. The study probes whether Guyana has finally turned the corner. The study finds that good policies as well as good luck explain much of the recent growth. In particular, improved governance, sound macroeconomic management and favourable terms of trade have been the key growth propellers. The paper offers strategies to further accelerate growth in the medium to long term, which include increasing economic dynamism, fully exploiting and better utilising natural resources, and strengthening and entrenching good governance.
Guyana has experienced significant economic growth and several waves of reforms over the past two... more Guyana has experienced significant economic growth and several waves of reforms over the past two decades. Nevertheless, several constraints continue to affect Guyana’s private sector. This policy brief utilizes firm-level data from the Compete Caribbean PROTEqIN database to examine these constraints with the aim of distilling essential policy responses.
This study revisits the phenomenon of the underground economy in Guyana utilising the techniques ... more This study revisits the phenomenon of the underground economy in Guyana utilising the techniques of earlier studies. Three previous studies have been done on the phenomenon on Guyana:(Thomas 1989; Bennett 1995; Faal 2003). Together these covered the period ...
Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets, 2016
Developing Country Studies, Feb 1, 2012
Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive ... more Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive years of robust growth during the period 2006-2010. The study probes whether Guyana has finally turned the corner. The study finds that good policies as well as good luck explain much of the recent growth. In particular, improved governance, sound macroeconomic management and favourable terms of trade have been the key growth propellers. The paper offers strategies to further accelerate growth in the medium to long term, which include increasing economic dynamism, fully exploiting and better utilising natural resources, and strengthening and entrenching good governance.
Mpra Paper, Aug 1, 2009
- 1 - The determinants of non-performing loans: an econometric case study of Guyana1 TarronKhemra... more - 1 - The determinants of non-performing loans: an econometric case study of Guyana1 TarronKhemraj Assistant Professor of Economics New College of Florida ... It has also benefitted from the invaluable research assistance provided by Ms. A Singh and Mr. A. Dorris. Page 2. ...
Journal of Economic Studies, 2012
ABSTRACT Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it estimates the sterilization co... more ABSTRACT Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it estimates the sterilization coefficients for several Caribbean countries. Second, it contributes to the literature by providing a conceptual framework for understanding why regional economies with fully pegged exchange rate regimes have not allowed the money supply to be endogenous to capital flows. This paper notes that a high sterilization coefficient plus a de facto pegged exchange rate indicates the existence of dual nominal anchors. Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents a simple theoretical model to explain this phenomenon. The model combines the liquidity preference of commercial banks with an augmented uncovered interest parity equation. Findings – The econometric evidence presented shows that several Caribbean economies with fixed exchange rate regimes also possess high sterilization coefficients. Given open capital accounts in the various economies, the paper argues that this finding contravenes the money neutrality thesis, which holds that only one nominal anchor can prevail in the long term. Originality/value – The model emphasizes that the interest rate formation and liquidity preference of oligopolistic commercial banks – the dominant financial institutions in a post-liberalized setting – prevents counteracting capital movements when monetary policy changes above or along a threshold or bank mark-up interest rate.
The Journal of Developing Areas, 2014
ABSTRACT Utilizing the method of generalized least squares (GLS), the paper investigates the fact... more ABSTRACT Utilizing the method of generalized least squares (GLS), the paper investigates the factors which determine bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange (FX) market of Guyana. The econometric exercise is based on a rich dataset of trading volumes as well as the buying and selling exchange rates for each cambio (or trader) from January 2000 to December 2007. The main findings are: (i) a positive relationship between a measure of market power and spread; (ii) a positive relationship between hoarding of FX and spread; and (iii) a strong positive association between risk and spread. The key contribution of this paper to the literature is the evidence that traders have the ability to influence the BAS, and by extension the exchange rate.
This paper explores the influence of trader (or cambio) market power in determining the foreign e... more This paper explores the influence of trader (or cambio) market power in determining the foreign exchange market bid-ask spread. It presents a theoretical model that incorporates the notion of oligopolistic market power into the foreign exchange market. The econometric results are consistent with the hypothesis of oligopolistic trader market power. Moreover, the results confirm the prediction of standard market microstructure theory that volatility exerts a positive effect on spread. We also uncovered a positive relationship between liquidity (the quantity of foreign exchange traded) and spread, a result which differs from the existing literature. We interpret this finding to mean that oligopolistic traders set the mark-up exchange rate above where the purely competitive rate would have been so as to generate a surplus of US$ that is then hoarded. The econometric exercise utilizes a unique data set of trading volumes and buying/selling exchange rates for each cambio from January 2000 to December 2007. It must be emphasized early that this data are not order flows. Our data measure realized trading volumes and prices.
Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive ... more Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive years of robust growth during the period 2006-2010. The study probes whether Guyana has finally turned the corner. The study finds that good policies as well as good luck explain much of the recent growth. In particular, improved governance, sound macroeconomic management and favourable terms of trade have been the key growth propellers. The paper offers strategies to further accelerate growth in the medium to long term, which include increasing economic dynamism, fully exploiting and better utilising natural resources, and strengthening and entrenching good governance.
Guyana has experienced significant economic growth and several waves of reforms over the past two... more Guyana has experienced significant economic growth and several waves of reforms over the past two decades. Nevertheless, several constraints continue to affect Guyana’s private sector. This policy brief utilizes firm-level data from the Compete Caribbean PROTEqIN database to examine these constraints with the aim of distilling essential policy responses.
This study revisits the phenomenon of the underground economy in Guyana utilising the techniques ... more This study revisits the phenomenon of the underground economy in Guyana utilising the techniques of earlier studies. Three previous studies have been done on the phenomenon on Guyana:(Thomas 1989; Bennett 1995; Faal 2003). Together these covered the period ...
Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets, 2016
Developing Country Studies, Feb 1, 2012
Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive ... more Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive years of robust growth during the period 2006-2010. The study probes whether Guyana has finally turned the corner. The study finds that good policies as well as good luck explain much of the recent growth. In particular, improved governance, sound macroeconomic management and favourable terms of trade have been the key growth propellers. The paper offers strategies to further accelerate growth in the medium to long term, which include increasing economic dynamism, fully exploiting and better utilising natural resources, and strengthening and entrenching good governance.
Mpra Paper, Aug 1, 2009
- 1 - The determinants of non-performing loans: an econometric case study of Guyana1 TarronKhemra... more - 1 - The determinants of non-performing loans: an econometric case study of Guyana1 TarronKhemraj Assistant Professor of Economics New College of Florida ... It has also benefitted from the invaluable research assistance provided by Ms. A Singh and Mr. A. Dorris. Page 2. ...
Journal of Economic Studies, 2012
ABSTRACT Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it estimates the sterilization co... more ABSTRACT Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it estimates the sterilization coefficients for several Caribbean countries. Second, it contributes to the literature by providing a conceptual framework for understanding why regional economies with fully pegged exchange rate regimes have not allowed the money supply to be endogenous to capital flows. This paper notes that a high sterilization coefficient plus a de facto pegged exchange rate indicates the existence of dual nominal anchors. Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents a simple theoretical model to explain this phenomenon. The model combines the liquidity preference of commercial banks with an augmented uncovered interest parity equation. Findings – The econometric evidence presented shows that several Caribbean economies with fixed exchange rate regimes also possess high sterilization coefficients. Given open capital accounts in the various economies, the paper argues that this finding contravenes the money neutrality thesis, which holds that only one nominal anchor can prevail in the long term. Originality/value – The model emphasizes that the interest rate formation and liquidity preference of oligopolistic commercial banks – the dominant financial institutions in a post-liberalized setting – prevents counteracting capital movements when monetary policy changes above or along a threshold or bank mark-up interest rate.
The Journal of Developing Areas, 2014
ABSTRACT Utilizing the method of generalized least squares (GLS), the paper investigates the fact... more ABSTRACT Utilizing the method of generalized least squares (GLS), the paper investigates the factors which determine bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange (FX) market of Guyana. The econometric exercise is based on a rich dataset of trading volumes as well as the buying and selling exchange rates for each cambio (or trader) from January 2000 to December 2007. The main findings are: (i) a positive relationship between a measure of market power and spread; (ii) a positive relationship between hoarding of FX and spread; and (iii) a strong positive association between risk and spread. The key contribution of this paper to the literature is the evidence that traders have the ability to influence the BAS, and by extension the exchange rate.
This paper explores the influence of trader (or cambio) market power in determining the foreign e... more This paper explores the influence of trader (or cambio) market power in determining the foreign exchange market bid-ask spread. It presents a theoretical model that incorporates the notion of oligopolistic market power into the foreign exchange market. The econometric results are consistent with the hypothesis of oligopolistic trader market power. Moreover, the results confirm the prediction of standard market microstructure theory that volatility exerts a positive effect on spread. We also uncovered a positive relationship between liquidity (the quantity of foreign exchange traded) and spread, a result which differs from the existing literature. We interpret this finding to mean that oligopolistic traders set the mark-up exchange rate above where the purely competitive rate would have been so as to generate a surplus of US$ that is then hoarded. The econometric exercise utilizes a unique data set of trading volumes and buying/selling exchange rates for each cambio from January 2000 to December 2007. It must be emphasized early that this data are not order flows. Our data measure realized trading volumes and prices.