Tapio Raunio | Tampere University (original) (raw)

Papers by Tapio Raunio

French Politics, 2024

During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the ... more During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the COVID period. Focusing on two stable yet different European democracies, France and Finland, this article examines the internal and external factors affecting the ability of parliaments to control the executive during the pandemic. The empirical analysis considers institutional developments affecting parliaments as well as the behaviour of MPs. The benefit of hindsight enables us to assess the entire COVID period, showing that in both countries the initial dominance of the executive was followed by more assertive parliamentary behaviour. The results indicate that, despite difficult conditions, parliaments in both countries displayed adaptability and resilience, but power constellations pre-dating the COVID period impacted on the respective roles of the French and Finnish parliaments.

East European politics, Jul 1, 2024

Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scal... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.

Journal of European public policy, Mar 6, 2024

Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global ... more Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capacity for swift decisions is becoming increasingly important but reacting to abrupt challenges also easily leads to violations of democratic norms, as recent studies on Covid-19 pandemic demonstrate. To advance our understanding of this pressing tension that thus far has been mainly approached via broad regime-level comparisons, this study examines formal and informal coordinative institutions that facilitate efficient and democratic policy response in crisis situations. Applying the core executive model, we focus on Finland's decision to apply for NATO membership that unfolded rapidly after Russia attacked Ukraine. Through detailed process tracing analysis, we show how the country's strongly entrenched doctrine of military non-alignment was overturned with broad cross-party consensus in under three months via intensive mediation involving all key actors and governing institutions. Adding important nuance to constitutionally centred studies of crisis decision-making, our analysis shows how strongly institutionalised coordination mechanisms can facilitate radical policy changes to status quo even in the context of dispersed policymaking resources and high partisan fragmentation. Our findings especially underline the complementary roles and interplay of formal rules and informal practices, showing that in crisis situations the latter acquire fundamental importance.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Feb 22, 2024

European Journal of Futures Research, Sep 28, 2023

Government and Opposition, Aug 23, 2023

Comparative European politics, Feb 12, 2024

East European Politics, 2024

Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. T... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Sep 15, 2005

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2005

UI Paper, 2024

The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People's Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties' positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.

UI Paper, 2024

For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integratio... more For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integration, pushing for democratic and institutional strengthening. However, this paper, which features analysis of their 2024 election manifestos reveals, few concrete governance reform proposals. This may well indicate internal divisions. The Greens, though, standout with their federalist agenda. The paper explores factors influencing Europarties' stances and questions the commitment of national member parties. When national and EU-level campaigns diverge, it weakens Europarties' cohesion and influence.

UI Paper, 2024

The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People’s Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal
divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties’ positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.

International Political Science Review, 2024

Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic com... more Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic comparative research on the speeches of presidents in European semi-presidential countries. In such regimes, constitutionally weaker presidents are tempted to use the public podium for increasing their influence, potentially igniting intra-executive quarrels that debilitate decision-making. To gauge this general dynamic, this article analyses the official speeches of Czech, Finnish, French, Polish, Portuguese and Romanian presidents between 2000 and 2020. It first explores the 'politicalness' of presidents' public activity through the general tone and the share of references to economy in the speeches. It then examines how societal conditions, party-political dynamics and public opinion impact the tone and content of presidential addresses. Presidents largely adopt a positive or neutral tone even during cohabitation or economic downturn, but occasionally intervene in issues under the government's jurisdiction. The results highlight the complex and precarious nature of semi-presidentialism.

Journal of European Public Policy, 2024

Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capac... more Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capacity for swift decisions is becoming increasingly important but reacting to abrupt challenges also easily leads to violations of democratic norms, as recent studies on Covid-19 pandemic demonstrate. To advance our understanding of this pressing tension that thus far has been mainly approached via broad regime-level comparisons, this study examines formal and informal coordinative institutions that facilitate efficient and democratic policy response in crisis situations. Applying the core executive model, we focus on Finland's decision to apply for NATO membership that unfolded rapidly after Russia attacked Ukraine. Through detailed process tracing analysis, we show how the country's strongly entrenched doctrine of military non-alignment was overturned with broad cross-party consensus in under three months via intensive mediation involving all key actors and governing institutions. Adding important nuance to constitutionally centred studies of crisis decision-making, our analysis shows how strongly institutionalised coordination mechanisms can facilitate radical policy changes to status quo even in the context of dispersed policymaking resources and high partisan fragmentation. Our findings especially underline the complementary roles and interplay of formal rules and informal practices, showing that in crisis situations the latter acquire fundamental importance.

French Politics, 2024

During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the ... more During crises, executives are empowered at the expense of legislatures. This applied also to the COVID period. Focusing on two stable yet different European democracies, France and Finland, this article examines the internal and external factors affecting the ability of parliaments to control the executive during the pandemic. The empirical analysis considers institutional developments affecting parliaments as well as the behaviour of MPs. The benefit of hindsight enables us to assess the entire COVID period, showing that in both countries the initial dominance of the executive was followed by more assertive parliamentary behaviour. The results indicate that, despite difficult conditions, parliaments in both countries displayed adaptability and resilience, but power constellations pre-dating the COVID period impacted on the respective roles of the French and Finnish parliaments.

East European politics, Jul 1, 2024

Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scal... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.

Journal of European public policy, Mar 6, 2024

Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global ... more Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capacity for swift decisions is becoming increasingly important but reacting to abrupt challenges also easily leads to violations of democratic norms, as recent studies on Covid-19 pandemic demonstrate. To advance our understanding of this pressing tension that thus far has been mainly approached via broad regime-level comparisons, this study examines formal and informal coordinative institutions that facilitate efficient and democratic policy response in crisis situations. Applying the core executive model, we focus on Finland's decision to apply for NATO membership that unfolded rapidly after Russia attacked Ukraine. Through detailed process tracing analysis, we show how the country's strongly entrenched doctrine of military non-alignment was overturned with broad cross-party consensus in under three months via intensive mediation involving all key actors and governing institutions. Adding important nuance to constitutionally centred studies of crisis decision-making, our analysis shows how strongly institutionalised coordination mechanisms can facilitate radical policy changes to status quo even in the context of dispersed policymaking resources and high partisan fragmentation. Our findings especially underline the complementary roles and interplay of formal rules and informal practices, showing that in crisis situations the latter acquire fundamental importance.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Feb 22, 2024

European Journal of Futures Research, Sep 28, 2023

Government and Opposition, Aug 23, 2023

Comparative European politics, Feb 12, 2024

East European Politics, 2024

Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. T... more Following Russia's invasion, Ukraine exemplifies presidential leadership during full-scale war. This study examines executive coordination from Zelenskyi's mid-2019 election to the February 2022-July 2023 war period, using media sources and official data. It introduces three new leadership models-figurehead-leader, arbiter-management and leader-implementerto capture evolving intra-executive relations in semi-presidential systems. Power centralisation around the president has accelerated, fitting the leader-implementer model. However, in accordance with the arbiter-manager model, a stricter division of labour, especially in domestic policy, is evident. Despite semi-presidentialism's perceived conflict-proneness, the study shows it can function efficiently and allow executive flexibility during significant crisis.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Sep 15, 2005

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2005

UI Paper, 2024

The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People's Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties' positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.

UI Paper, 2024

For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integratio... more For decades, major Europarties like the EPP, PES, and ALDE have advocated increased EU integration, pushing for democratic and institutional strengthening. However, this paper, which features analysis of their 2024 election manifestos reveals, few concrete governance reform proposals. This may well indicate internal divisions. The Greens, though, standout with their federalist agenda. The paper explores factors influencing Europarties' stances and questions the commitment of national member parties. When national and EU-level campaigns diverge, it weakens Europarties' cohesion and influence.

UI Paper, 2024

The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing thei... more The main Europarties have for decades championed the cause of further integration. Utilizing their internal networks and working together in the EU institutions, the Europarties have consistently called for a more democratic and stronger EU. Focusing on the three largest Europarties, the European People’s Party (EPP), the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), this UI Paper examines their positions on the institutional development of the Union. The manifestos for the 2024 European elections contain few concrete reform proposals about EU governance, suggesting growing internal
divisions inside the main Europarties. When including the smaller Europarties in the analysis, the Greens stand out with their explicitly federalist manifesto. The paper also discusses the factors shaping the Europarties’ positions and whether the national member parties are really committed to them. When they are not, the decoupling between national and European level campaigns weakens the cohesion and influence of the Europarties.

International Political Science Review, 2024

Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic com... more Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic comparative research on the speeches of presidents in European semi-presidential countries. In such regimes, constitutionally weaker presidents are tempted to use the public podium for increasing their influence, potentially igniting intra-executive quarrels that debilitate decision-making. To gauge this general dynamic, this article analyses the official speeches of Czech, Finnish, French, Polish, Portuguese and Romanian presidents between 2000 and 2020. It first explores the 'politicalness' of presidents' public activity through the general tone and the share of references to economy in the speeches. It then examines how societal conditions, party-political dynamics and public opinion impact the tone and content of presidential addresses. Presidents largely adopt a positive or neutral tone even during cohabitation or economic downturn, but occasionally intervene in issues under the government's jurisdiction. The results highlight the complex and precarious nature of semi-presidentialism.

Journal of European Public Policy, 2024

Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capac... more Sudden crises present a 'stress test' for democratic policymaking. Amidst global crises the capacity for swift decisions is becoming increasingly important but reacting to abrupt challenges also easily leads to violations of democratic norms, as recent studies on Covid-19 pandemic demonstrate. To advance our understanding of this pressing tension that thus far has been mainly approached via broad regime-level comparisons, this study examines formal and informal coordinative institutions that facilitate efficient and democratic policy response in crisis situations. Applying the core executive model, we focus on Finland's decision to apply for NATO membership that unfolded rapidly after Russia attacked Ukraine. Through detailed process tracing analysis, we show how the country's strongly entrenched doctrine of military non-alignment was overturned with broad cross-party consensus in under three months via intensive mediation involving all key actors and governing institutions. Adding important nuance to constitutionally centred studies of crisis decision-making, our analysis shows how strongly institutionalised coordination mechanisms can facilitate radical policy changes to status quo even in the context of dispersed policymaking resources and high partisan fragmentation. Our findings especially underline the complementary roles and interplay of formal rules and informal practices, showing that in crisis situations the latter acquire fundamental importance.

One of the key arguments of the ‘leave’ side in the Brexit referendum of June 2016 was that 60 % ... more One of the key arguments of the ‘leave’ side in the Brexit referendum of June 2016 was that 60 % or even 75 % of British legislation originated in Brussels, not in London. Examining the impact of European Union on national legislation in Finland, we show that contrary to the widely accepted ‘Delors myth’, only 17.8 % on national laws adopted between 1995 and 2015 were related to the EU. Evidence from other European countries corroborates our findings: the share of domestic laws with an EU impulse is higher in some countries but never even close to the 80 % threshold suggested by the Delors myth.

Transnational Parties and Advocacy in European Integration, 2024

This book analyses the role of Europarties in the deepening of integration and the debates on the... more This book analyses the role of Europarties in the deepening of integration and the debates on the future of Europe. It is guided by three fundamental research questions: What strategies do Europarties utilize to advance their visions of Europe? What is the relative influence of the actors in the networks of the Europarties? How successful have the Europarties been in shaping the future of Europe? European integration cannot be understood without accounting for the impact of the Europarties. Theoretically, the book utilizes the concepts of advocacy and agenda-setting, identifying Europarties as transnational partisan actors operating at intergovernmental and supranational levels of EU decision-making. Europarties have consolidated their organizational structures, and more importantly, have over the decades built their own networks and coalitions that enable them to wield influence in ways rarely captured by previous studies. Empirically, the book investigates the networks and positions of the Europarties, constitutional reform processes, and the role of the Europarties and their EP political groups in the broader debates on the future of Europe.