Comparative Analysis of the Discriminatory Performance of Different Well-Known Risk Assessment Scores for Extended Hepatectomy (original) (raw)
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Journal of Surgical Oncology, 2019
Background: Post hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a serious complication in patients undergoing liver resection. This study hypothesized that a new pre-operative risk score developed through statistical modeling to predict PHLF could be used to stratify patients at higher risk of PHLF. Methods: Patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2008 and 2016 were included in the derivation and validation cohorts. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was performed to identify predictors of PHLF, and a prognostic score was derived. Results: A total of 1269 patients were included in the derivation cohort. PHLF was encountered in 13.1% and was associated with significantly increased 90-day mortality and prolonged post-operative hospital stay (both p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis identified the extent of surgery (p < 0.001) and pre-operative bilirubin (p = 0.015), INR (p < 0.001), and creatinine (p = 0.048) to be independent predictors of PHLF. A risk score derived from these factors returned an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.816 (p < 0.001) for an internal validation cohort (N = 453), significantly outperforming the MELD score (AUROC: 0.643). Conclusion: The PHLF risk score could be used to stratify the risk of PHLF among patients planned for hepatectomy.
Annals of Surgery, 2021
Objective: To compare different criteria for post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) and evaluate the association between International Study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS) PHLF and the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI)” and 90-day mortality. Summary of Background Data: PHLF is a serious complication following hepatic resection. Multiple criteria have been developed to characterize PHLF. Methods: Adults who underwent major hepatectomies at twelve international centers (2010–2020) were included. We identified patients who met criteria for PHLF based on three definitions: 1) ISGLS, 2) Balzan (INR > 1.7 and bilirubin > 2.92mg/dL) or 3) Mullen (peak bilirubin >7mg/dL). We compared the 90-day mortality and major morbidity predicted by each definition. We then used logistic regression to determine the odds of CCI>40 and 90-day mortality associated with ISGLS grades. Results: Among 1646 included patients, 19 (1.1%) met Balzan, 68 (4.1%) met Mullen, and 444 (27.0%) met ISGLS ...
A Risk Model to Predict 90-Day Mortality among Patients Undergoing Hepatic Resection
Journal of the American College of Surgeons, 2013
BACKGROUND-Reliable criteria to predict mortality after hepatectomy remain poorly defined. We sought to identify factors associated with 90-day mortality, as well as validate the "50-50" and peak bilirubin of >7 mg/dL prediction rules for mortality after liver resection. In addition, we propose a novel integer-based score for 90-day mortality using a large cohort of patients. STUDY DESIGN-Data from 2,056 patients who underwent liver resection at 2 major hepatobiliary centers between 1990 and 2011 were identified. Perioperative laboratory data, as well as surgical and postoperative details, were analyzed to identify factors associated with liverrelated 90-day death. RESULTS-Indications for liver resection included colorectal metastasis (39%), hepatocellular carcinoma (19%), benign mass (17%), or noncolorectal metastasis (14%). Most patients had normal underlying liver parenchyma (71%) and resection involved ≥3 segments (36%). Overall morbidity and mortality were 19% and 2%, respectively. Only 1 patient fulfilled the 50-50 criteria; this patient survived and was discharged on day 8. Twenty patients had a peak bilirubin concentration >7 mg/dL and 5 died within 90 days; the sensitivity and spec-ificity of the >7-mg/ dL rule were 25% and 99.3%, respectively, but overall accuracy was poor (area under the curve 0.574). Factors associated with 90-day mortality included international normalized ratio (odds ratio = 11.87), bilirubin (odds ratio = 1.16), and serum creatinine (odds ratio = 1.87) on postoperative day 3, as well as grade of postoperative complications (odds ratio = 5.08; all p < 0.05). Integer values were assigned to each factor to develop a model that predicted 90-day mortality (area under the curve 0.89). A score of ≥11 points had a sensitivity and specificity of 83.3% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS-The 50-50 and bilirubin >7-mg/dL rules were not accurate in predicting 90day mortality. Rather, a composite integer-based risk score based on postoperative day 3
Prognostic criteria for postoperative mortality in 170 patients undergoing major right hepatectomy
2012
BACKGROUND: Postoperative hepatic failure is a dreadful complication after major hepatectomy and carries high morbidity and mortality rates. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of the 50/50 criteria (bilirubin >2.9 mg/dL and international normalized ratio >1.7 on postoperative day 5) and the Mullen criteria (bilirubin peak >7 mg/dL on postoperative days 1-7) in predicting death from hepatic failure in patients undergoing right hepatectomy only. In addition, we identified prognostic factors linked to intra-hospital morbidity and mortality in these patients. METHODS: One hundred seventy consecutive patients underwent major right hepatectomy at a tertiary medical center from 2000 to 2008. Nineteen (11.2%) patients suffered from liver cirrhosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of intra-hospital mortality, morbidity and death from hepatic failure. RESULTS: The intra-hospital mortality was 6.5% (11/170). Of the six patients who died from hepatic failure, one was positive for the 50/50 criteria, but all six patients were positive for the Mullen criteria. Multivariate analysis showed that male gender, hepatitis C (HCV), hepatocellular carcinoma, postoperative bilirubin >7 mg/dL and ALT<188 U/L on postoperative day 1 were predictive of death from hepatic failure in the postoperative period. Age >65 years, HCV, reoperation, and renal failure were significant predictors of overall intrahospital mortality on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The Mullen criteria were more accurate than the 50/50 criteria in predicting death from hepatic failure in patients undergoing right hepatectomy. A bilirubin peak >7 mg/dL in the postoperative period, HCV positivity, hepatocellular carcinoma, and an ALT level <188 U/L on postoperative day 1 were associated with death from hepatic failure in our patient population.
European Journal of Surgical Oncology (EJSO), 2017
Introduction: Recently, there has been increasing interest in the preoperative prediction and prevention of post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). This is a particular concern in colorectal liver metastases (CRLM), when surgery follows potentially hepatotoxic chemotherapy. Platelet-based liver scores (PBLS) such as APRI and FIB-4 are predictive of chemotherapy-associated liver injury (CALI) and PHLF. Estimation of the future liver remnant function (eFLRF) by combining 99m Tc-Mebrofenin Hepatobiliary Scintigraphy (HBS BSA) with future liver remnant volume ratio (FLRV%), is predictive of PHLF and related mortality. We hypothesized that a HBS BSA based formula was a better predictor for PHLF than PBLS in chemotherapy-pretreated CRLM. Methods: Between 2012 and 2016, 140 patients underwent liver resection for CRLM following systemic therapy. HBS BSA , FLRV%, eFLRF and PBLS were calculated and compared for their value in predicting PHLF. Results: eFLRF and FLRV% had a better predictive value for PHLF than HBS BSA alone and APRI and FIB-4 (AUC = 0.800, 0.843 versus 0.652, 0.635 and 0.658 respectively). In a subgroup analysis (Oxaliplatin all, Oxaliplatin ≥ 6 cycles, Irinotecan all and Irinotecan ≥ 6 cycles), eFLRF was the only factor predictive for PHLF in all subgroups (all: p ≤ 0.05). Prediction of HBS BSA for chemotherapy associated steato-hepatitis (CASH) reached significance (p = 0.06). FIB-4 was predictive for sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (SOS) (p = 0.011). Only weak correlation was found between HBS BSA and PBLS. Conclusion: eFLRF is a better predictor of PHLF than PBLS or HBS BSA alone. PBLS seem to measure other aspects of liver function or damage than HBS BSA .
Validation of the peak bilirubin criterion for outcome after partial hepatectomy
HPB : the official journal of the International Hepato Pancreato Biliary Association, 2016
Postoperative liver failure (PLF) is a dreaded complication after partial hepatectomy. The peak bilirubin criterion (>7.0 mg/dL or ≥120 μmol/L) is used to define PLF. This study aimed to validate the peak bilirubin criterion as postoperative risk indicator for 90-day liver-related mortality. Characteristics of 956 consecutive patients who underwent partial hepatectomy at the Maastricht University Medical Centre or Royal Free London between 2005 and 2012 were analyzed by uni- and multivariable analyses with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Thirty-five patients (3.7%) met the postoperative peak bilirubin criterion at median day 19 with a median bilirubin level of 183 [121-588] μmol/L. Sensitivity and specificity for liver-related mortality after major hepatectomy were 41.2% and 94.6%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 22.6%. Predictors of liver-related mortality were the peak bilirubin criterion (p < 0.001, OR = 15.9 [95%CI 5.2-48.7]), moderat...
Medicine, 2016
To construct a robust morbidity risk-prediction model based on a Japanese nationwide web-based database of patients who underwent liver surgery.Although liver resection has become safer, patient mortality and morbidity still occur. This study investigated postoperative morbidity risks in patients who underwent hepatectomy in Japan at institutions registered in the National Clinical Database.This analysis involved 14,970 patients who underwent hepatectomy of more than 1 section, except for left lateral sectionectomy, during 2011 and 2012 at 1192 hospitals in Japan. Patients were randomized into 2 subsets, with 80% of patients analyzed for model development and the remaining 20% for model validation.Rates of 90-day inhospital mortality and overall morbidity were 3.7% and 25.7%, respectively. Rates of surgical site infection and bile leakage were 9.0% and 8.0%, respectively, but these morbidities showed little association with mortality. Rates of nonsurgical complications, including po...
Hepatectomy is a complex procedure with high morbidity and mortality. Early prediction/prevention of major complications is highly valuable for patient care. Surgical APGAR score (SAS) has been validated to predict post-surgical complications (PCs). We aimed to define a simple complications classification following hepatectomy based on a therapy-oriented severity Clavien-Dindo classification (CDC). 119 patients undergoing liver resection were included. PCs were determined at follow-up based on CDC. Clinicopathological factors were used to calculate SAS. A receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis estimated the predictive value of SAS for PCs.
Albumin-Bilirubin Score vs Model for End-Stage Liver Disease in Predicting Post-Hepatectomy Outcomes
Journal of the American College of Surgeons, 2020
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