A case study on the changing pattern of monsoon rainfall duration and its amount during recent five decades in different agroclimatic zones of Punjab state of India (original) (raw)
Related papers
Mausam, 2023
Rainfall is an important part of hydrological cycle and any alteration in its pattern influence water resources. In Punjab, the monsoon season of 77 days extending during three months July, August and September, receives rainfall at an average rate of 6 mm/day. In the present study, monsoon rainfall data for three parts of the state, viz., the north eastern region (1984-2020), Central plain region (1970-2020) and the south western region (1977-2020) of the state have been analyzed using non-parametric tests, i.e., descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope. Though, the duration of the monsoon season has increased over the last two decades at 0.8 day/year, the rate of rainfall has decreased as rainfall has been less than normal during 17 of the past 20 years. The monsoon rainfall analysis for the five decades indicates a significant decrease in rainfall at 0.7 mm/year which has mainly been due to a decline in rainfall in the north eastern region. The Sen’s slope value of -4.77 (Ballowal) and -0.60 (Bathinda) indicate a decreasing trend of rainfall in the region. The decreasing trend in rainfall received during the July-August months with Sen’s slope values ranging between -0.04 to -2.50 and -0.24 to -3.14, indicates that the months which contribute ~70 percent to total rainfall are not a good signal for the agriculture sector in the state.
Long term rainfall variability and trend analysis in lower Shivaliks of Punjab, India
MAUSAM
The trend analysis of historical rainfall data on monthly, annual and seasonal basis for three locations in lower Shivaliks of Punjab, viz., Patiala-ki-Rao (1982-2015), Ballowal Saunkhri (1987-2015) and Saleran (1984-2017) has been done in the present study using linear regression model, Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope. Further, the data for annual and seasonal rainfall and rainy days has also been analyzed on quindecennial basis, i.e., for the period of 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. The analysis of data showed that annual rainfall in the region ranged from 1000 to 1150 mm. The trend analysis of the data shows that the monthly rainfall is decreasing at Patiala-ki-Rao and Saleran, however, the trend was significant for May at Patiala-ki-Rao; and in March and November at Saleran. At Ballowal Saunkhri, the decreasing trend is observed from May to October, however, the trend is significant only in August. The decrease in annual and monsoon rainfall is about 13 to 17 mm and 12 to 13 mm per ...
Journal of Water and Climate Change
Fluctuations in the precipitation pattern often tend to have an impact on the availability of water, making it necessary to explore spatiotemporal variations in rainfall. This study explores the time series analysis of the rainfall from 1952 to 2019. The trend was analyzed using the modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK), and innovative trend analysis (ITA). The analysis showed that the northern region received the least rainfall while the southern region received the maximum rainfall except that one of the stations had a positive kurtosis. The kurtosis of the rainfall histogram ranges from −0.69 to 24.13. The trend was very well defined by all the methods, though MMK z statistics showed more occurrences of significant changes in the rainfall. The northeast monsoon carried a significantly decreasing trend at Chikkanayakanahalli station where the z value of MMK and ITA_R test showed values of −1.33 and −2.23, respectively, while all of the significantly increasing trends were defined by th...
IAEME PUBLICATION, 2020
The objective was to study seasonal trend in rainfall data. Monthly rainfall data of 40 year (1980 to 2019) was used to calculate seasonal trend using Mann-Kendall non parametric test at 5% level of significance. The year was divided into four season as winter season, pre-monsoon season, monsoon season and post-monsoon season as per Indian Metrological Department (IMD) guidelines. Sen Slope estimator was used to calculate magnitude of trend at 5% level of significance. The result show that the winter season has significant increasing trend whereas post-monsoon show significant negative. This study will improve the understanding about the rainfall trend in the studied area and useful to different stakeholders.
Rainfall Trend Analysis in Tehsils of Palghar District, Maharashtra State, India
IJRASET , 2021
A detailed trend analysis of monthly and annual rainfall for Tehsils of Palghar district were carried out using 22 years (1998-2019) daily rainfall data taken from Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State. In this study, to analyse the trend, the non-parametric test (Mann-Kendall test) and Sen's slope estimator were used. For developing a functional relationship between variables, a linear trend of rainfall data for the studied area evaluated using the linear regression. The results showed that the trend analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of rainfall in the rainy months in tehsil of Palghar District. The month of July significant increasing trend was observed at Jawhar (42.91 mm/year), Vikramgad (29.90 mm/year), Wada (24.06 mm/year), Talasari (31.36 mm/year), Palghar (25.299 mm/year), Mokhada (29.96 mm/year) and Dahanu (38.14 mm/year), whereas non-significant increasing trend 2.76 mm/year was observed at Vasai tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The month of June, August, September and October rainfall did not show any significant trend in tehsil of Palghar District and non significant decreasing as well as non significant increasing trend was observed in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The result concluded that annual rainfall trend was increased in
Daily rainfall data was collected for the arid district of Ananthapuramu, Andhra Pradesh state, India from 1981 to 2016 at the sub-district level and aggregated to monthly, annual and seasonal rainfall totals and the number of rainy days. The objective of this study is to evaluate the homogeneity, trend, and trend change points in the rainfall data. After quality checks and homogeneity analysis, a total of 27 rain gauge locations were considered for trend analysis. A serial correlation test was applied to all the time series to identify serially independent series. Non-Parametric Mann-Kendall test and Spearman’s rank correlation tests were applied to serially independent series. The magnitude of the trend was calculated using Sen’s slope method. For the data influenced by serial correlation, various modified versions of Mann-Kendall tests (Pre-Whitening, Trend Free Pre-Whitening, Bias Corrected Pre-Whitening and two variants of Variance Correction Approaches) were applied. A signifi...
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017
Trend analysis of long-term rainfall records can be used to facilitate better agriculture water management decision and climate risk studies. The main objective of this study was to identify the existing trends in the long-term rainfall time series over the period 1901-2010 utilizing 12 hydrological stations located at the Ken River basin (KRB) in Madhya Pradesh, India. To investigate the different trends, the rainfall time series data were divided into annual and seasonal (i.e., pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter season) subsets , and a statistical analysis of data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Sen's slope approach was applied to identify the nature of the existing trends in rainfall series for the Ken River basin. The obtained results were further interpolated with the aid of the Quantum Geographic Information System (GIS) approach employing the inverse distance weighted approach. The results showed that the monsoon and the winter season exhibited a negative trend in rainfall changes over the period of study, and this was true for all stations, although the changes during the preand the post-monsoon seasons were less significant. The outcomes of this research study also suggest significant decreases in the seasonal and annual trends of rainfall amounts in the study period. These findings showing a clear signature of climate change impacts on KRB region potentially have implications in terms of climate risk management strategies to be developed during major growing and harvesting seasons and also to aid in the appropriate water resource management strategies that must be implemented in decision-making process.
2021
1Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India 2Former Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India 3U.G. Student, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------Abstract Climatic variability particularly rainfall and temperature has received a greater attention throughout the world. Climate change and its variability in the climatic parameters may adversely affect the agriculture sector and water resources of agrarian country like India. The research on change of rainfall, occurrence and its allocation are the most significant way for sustainable water resource management and food security. Hence an understanding of rainfall patterns in the changing environment will help in better decision making and improving the adopting of the communities to sustain the extr...