The State of Food Security in Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis (original) (raw)
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Projections of food demand and supply in Bangladesh: implications on food security and water demand
International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 2017
The objectives of this study was to project demand for and supply of key food commodities in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050 and assess their demand-supply gap. The scope of the forecast was confined with selected 11 food items and used almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Projections showed that food consumption in Bangladesh will diversify over time, cereals will provide a major part of the calorie intake, but their share in total calorie supply will decrease by 2030 and 2050. The consumption of animal products and non-cereal crops will have increasing trend during the same time period. The projections showed that Bangladesh will have surplus productions of rice and maize by 2030 and deficit productions of wheat, potato, pulses, vegetables, meat, egg and fresh water fish. It will have surplus productions of rice, maize, potato, vegetable and milk by 2050 and deficit productions of wheat, pulses, fruits, meat and fresh water fish. Water demand for Boro rice production in 2030 and 2050 will increase considerably and may cause much stress on ground water source.
An Analysis of Food Security at National Level in Bangladesh
The present study is an attempt to analyze the present situation of food security in Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh is firmly committed to ensure food for all, as enshrined in the Constitution. Food security situation in Bangladesh has improved, especially on the availability side. On national scale, Bangladesh has achieved food self-sufficiency through domestic production, imports and food aid. The study is based on secondary data. The data used in this study were collected from different sources such as books, reports, journal articles, newspaper and online sources. Collected data were analyzed through tabular, graphical and statistical techniques. The study found that total production of rice and wheat were 34750 and 1260 thousand metric tons, respectively, in the FY 2011-12 in Bangladesh. Besides rice and wheat, production of potato, vegetables, fish, meat milk, egg, spices, etc. has also been increased over time. However, the production of pulse, oil seeds, sugar, and fruits experienced fluctuation over time. It is found that per capita calorie intake of the people has increased to 2318.3 kcal in 2010 from 2240.3 kcal in 2000 at national level. It is important to note that per capita calorie intake is more in rural households compared to urban households. In addition to per capita calorie intake, per capita protein intake has slightly been increased over the years in Bangladesh.
Essays on food demand and supply in Bangladesh
Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsAleksan ShanoyanThe socio-economic and demographic conditions of Bangladesh have changed dramatically during the last three decades after economic and political reforms in 1991, which lead to change in food preferences both in rural and urban areas. Following the global trend of increasing commodity prices, the price hike in Bangladesh has raised policy concerns regarding the potential shifts in consumption patterns and welfare loss. Furthermore, the agricultural industry and the food supply in Bangladesh is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change and increased frequency of extreme weather events. The accurate and timely insights on food demand patterns in Bangladesh under the changing socio-economic scenarios can have important implications for food and nutritional security, price stability, poverty alleviation and appropriate import-export policy of the country. Policies on these issues cannot produce desired outc...
Journal of Agriculture, Food and Environment (JAFE), 2020
Using time-series data, we examined the structural stability and supply response scenario of cereal food production for the last five decades. Analyzes revealed that growth in the area for Aus, Aman, and Boro rice slowed in the period 1971/72-1983/84, but surprisingly the production growth accelerated due to amazing technological advancements and the implementation of government subsidies on complementary inputs. Applying the Nerlovian supply response model, the result showed that, lagged area for Aus, Boro, and wheat was positive and significant, implying that the preceding year area under Aus, Boro, and wheat had a significant influence on land allocation for the following year. The lagged relative yield of Boro and Aus turned out positive implying that in Boro season farmers took into consideration the lagged relative yield of Boro vis-a-vis wheat in the allocation of land for Boro rice and wheat cultivation. The negative price risk variable further implied farmers‟ risk aversion response towards price fluctuation. The yield risk variable was found negative for Boro and wheat, implying that this factor did not influence the cultivation of these two crops. Meanwhile, although Bangladesh achieved marginally food security, government and policymakers should focus on stabilizing the market price at harvest time to realize sustainable food security in the future, and researchers should prioritize breaking the yield ceiling as well as developing different stresstolerant varieties. In the same way, steps should be taken through public and private partnerships to disseminate different crop varieties so that productivity could be enhanced at the desired level.
Food Security and Nutrition in Bangladesh: Progress and Determinants
2005
For Bangladesh food security was synonymous with achieving self-sufficiency in rice production and stabilization in rice prices. The country has made good progress in increasing rice production through technological progress, facilitated by private sector investment in small scale irrigation. But, it is difficult to sustain the progress made in view of the growing pressure of population on scarce land resources. Domestic food grain production remains susceptible to floods and droughts thereby perpetuating the threat of major production shortfalls, inadequate food availability, and vulnerability from fluctuation in prices. The availability of other foods has not increased, and the progress in nutritional outcome has remained slow. Forty percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and income inequality has been worsening. This paper assesses the trends in factors that affect food production, availability of food and their impact on nutrition outcomes. It also probes into t...
Supply and demand situations for major crops and food items in Bangladesh
Journal of the Bangladesh Agricultural University, 2010
This study explored historical food availability/supply and the market demand for food. Secondary data was used for analyzing demand-supply gap. The average growth in rice production was 2.9% per year in 1971/72 to 2008/09, of which 93% was contributed by yield growth. The overall growth rate of area under food grain was 0.3% in 1971/72 to 2008/09. The overall food grain production growth rate is higher than population growth rate from 1971/72 to 2008/09. The own price and income elasticities of rice were -0.108 and 0.199 respectively. It was projected that upto 2021, the annual demand for food exceed the supply of food which were -0.28% for rice and -1.76% for wheat. That implies the demands are greater than the supplies for both crops. Keywords: Food supply and demand; Price and income elasticities DOI: 10.3329/jbau.v8i1.6405J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 8(1): 91-102, 2010
Trends and projections for Bangladeshi food production
Food Policy, 1987
This article analyses growth in Bangladeshi food production and yields, by reviewing past evidence and critically examining the contribution of James K. Boyce. General statistical evidence is considered on whether the past growth rate is being sustained; the evidence suggests that past growth is unlikely to continue. Data from a recent field survey in two different areas of Bangladesh add weight to this view. On both ecological and economic grounds, it seems likely that Bangladesh's ability to feed its population will continue to decline.
Wheat and Rice, the Epicenter of Food Security in Bangladesh
2013
Agriculture is the prime economic activity in Bangladesh, but global warming is expected to severely reduce the yield of various crops, including wheat and rice, directly affecting the food security of 165 million people. Even though Bangladesh has achieved significant progress in agriculture, especially with respect to rice production and yield, the demand for rice still outstrips domestic production, and the country remains a net importer of rice. With an expanding population, planning for future cereal production and demand is crucial to meeting Bangladesh's food security challenges. To facilitate this planning, projections of future supply and demand for cereals are critical. This study is an attempt at carrying out such future projections with a view to assessing the likely gap between supply and demand. This information will also help to mould a global perspective plan of rice and wheat research in Bangladesh to meet the food demand of an increasing population for years to come.
Food Security in Bangladesh: Present Status and Trend
Progressive Agriculture, 2014
The study was is an attempt that offers better understanding the overall trend and pattern of food consumption and micro-nutrient intake using secondary data. The study revealed that total dietary energy consumption was 2230 kcal/capita/day which was higher than the total energy requirements of 2225 kcal/capita/day in 2003-2005. The shares of energy from protein (8.61%) and from fat (10.90%) were lower than 12% and 20% respectively, although upward trends for dietary fat and protein consumption were observed in between 1969-1971 and 2003-2005. The prevalence of child malnutrition declined in between 1992 and 2006. The results indicate that Bangladesh is not currently food secure in the sense of share of the total energy coming from protein and fat.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/pa.v24i1-2.19178 Progress. Agric. 24(1&2): 263 - 271, 2013
Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology, 2011
The study used a time series dataset for a period of 23 years to estimate and analyse the size of population, food grain production and requirements for next ten years in Bangladesh with a view to providing policy makers and government with information for policy formulation and analysis. Using a simple moving average (SMA) method, a five-year average technique is applied for smoothing observed data series to generate a linear trend for the estimation of projected values of population, food grain requirements, net food grain production and food grain balance. The results indicate that the growth of population over next ten years will be very similar to the observed period. Increase in domestic food grain production shows a higher trend than food grain requirements leading to a food grain surplus over the same period. However, the size of population is growing too large to accommodate in a small country with a very low per capita income. The growing population will put enormous pressure on available resources thereby making future development unsustainable. The study suggests that the government should formulate policies to significantly reduce population growth.