Supply and demand situations for major crops and food items in Bangladesh (original) (raw)
Related papers
Essays on food demand and supply in Bangladesh
Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsAleksan ShanoyanThe socio-economic and demographic conditions of Bangladesh have changed dramatically during the last three decades after economic and political reforms in 1991, which lead to change in food preferences both in rural and urban areas. Following the global trend of increasing commodity prices, the price hike in Bangladesh has raised policy concerns regarding the potential shifts in consumption patterns and welfare loss. Furthermore, the agricultural industry and the food supply in Bangladesh is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change and increased frequency of extreme weather events. The accurate and timely insights on food demand patterns in Bangladesh under the changing socio-economic scenarios can have important implications for food and nutritional security, price stability, poverty alleviation and appropriate import-export policy of the country. Policies on these issues cannot produce desired outc...
ESTIMATING THE DEMAND ELASTICITY OF RICE IN BANGLADESH: AN APPLICATION OF THE AIDS MODEL
Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2020
This study determines the causes of consumption, compensated, and uncompensated demand for rice using the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) model in Bangladesh. The model was used along with the corrected Stone Price Index. The study's findings showed that the income elasticity of demand for rice was only 0.76, indicating that rice is a normal and necessary food item. The own-price elasticity (compensated and uncompensated) showed that all food items were price inelastic. The rice's own-price elasticity demonstrated that if the price falls by 10%, rice demand will rise by 8.21%. This cross-price elasticity showed the weak substitution effects of a price change. Therefore, price interference may not lead to a substantial effect on food demand. Contribution/Originality: The study measured the demand elasticity of rice and other major crops of Bangladesh. The effect of change in income on food demand was measured, as shown by income elasticity. It examined consumers' expenditure pattern and demand for rice, including other food items. Researchers and policymakers may use this study's findings to regulate Bangladeshi rice and major crops' price and demand scenario.
Projections of food demand and supply in Bangladesh: implications on food security and water demand
International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 2017
The objectives of this study was to project demand for and supply of key food commodities in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050 and assess their demand-supply gap. The scope of the forecast was confined with selected 11 food items and used almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Projections showed that food consumption in Bangladesh will diversify over time, cereals will provide a major part of the calorie intake, but their share in total calorie supply will decrease by 2030 and 2050. The consumption of animal products and non-cereal crops will have increasing trend during the same time period. The projections showed that Bangladesh will have surplus productions of rice and maize by 2030 and deficit productions of wheat, potato, pulses, vegetables, meat, egg and fresh water fish. It will have surplus productions of rice, maize, potato, vegetable and milk by 2050 and deficit productions of wheat, pulses, fruits, meat and fresh water fish. Water demand for Boro rice production in 2030 and 2050 will increase considerably and may cause much stress on ground water source.
The State of Food Security in Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis
2010
The main concern of this paper is to examine the food availability, self-sufficiency rate and food gap situation in Bangladesh. Attempt has been made to estimate food gaps between production and requirement for the last thirteen years. Future productions of rice and wheat have been forecasted by using appropriate econometric methods such as ARIMA and Holt's linear smoothing parameter approach. Forecasting of future food grain availability, food grain requirement and food gaps between production and requirement from 2010/11 to 2015/16 has been made. Finally some recommendations which would be helpful for improving the food security situation in Bangladesh have been suggested.
Journal of Agriculture, Food and Environment (JAFE), 2020
Using time-series data, we examined the structural stability and supply response scenario of cereal food production for the last five decades. Analyzes revealed that growth in the area for Aus, Aman, and Boro rice slowed in the period 1971/72-1983/84, but surprisingly the production growth accelerated due to amazing technological advancements and the implementation of government subsidies on complementary inputs. Applying the Nerlovian supply response model, the result showed that, lagged area for Aus, Boro, and wheat was positive and significant, implying that the preceding year area under Aus, Boro, and wheat had a significant influence on land allocation for the following year. The lagged relative yield of Boro and Aus turned out positive implying that in Boro season farmers took into consideration the lagged relative yield of Boro vis-a-vis wheat in the allocation of land for Boro rice and wheat cultivation. The negative price risk variable further implied farmers‟ risk aversion response towards price fluctuation. The yield risk variable was found negative for Boro and wheat, implying that this factor did not influence the cultivation of these two crops. Meanwhile, although Bangladesh achieved marginally food security, government and policymakers should focus on stabilizing the market price at harvest time to realize sustainable food security in the future, and researchers should prioritize breaking the yield ceiling as well as developing different stresstolerant varieties. In the same way, steps should be taken through public and private partnerships to disseminate different crop varieties so that productivity could be enhanced at the desired level.
Sustainability
The food items, such as pulses and oil crops, are influential means of nutritional security for the people in Bangladesh. Pulses are widely called here as an alternative to meat for poor households. The study aimed to predict productivity and national demand of pulses and oil crops in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050, minimizing the supply and demand gaps of these crops. Using the ARIMA model developed by Box and Jenkins, the current study projected Bangladesh’s pulse and oil crop demand and supply for the years 2030 and 2050. The projections showed that the total demand for pulses in 2030 will be 17.9 lakh MT and further increased to 19.5 lakh MT in 2050. The deficit in the supply of pulses will be 12.36 lakh MT in 2030 and 9.26 lakh MT in 2050 although the shortage of pulses will disappear as a result of productivity improvements and innovations. Per capita consumption of edible oil in Bangladesh is 20–22 g per day. The majority of domestically produced soybean (5% of total demand) is ...
Wheat and Rice, the Epicenter of Food Security in Bangladesh
2013
Agriculture is the prime economic activity in Bangladesh, but global warming is expected to severely reduce the yield of various crops, including wheat and rice, directly affecting the food security of 165 million people. Even though Bangladesh has achieved significant progress in agriculture, especially with respect to rice production and yield, the demand for rice still outstrips domestic production, and the country remains a net importer of rice. With an expanding population, planning for future cereal production and demand is crucial to meeting Bangladesh's food security challenges. To facilitate this planning, projections of future supply and demand for cereals are critical. This study is an attempt at carrying out such future projections with a view to assessing the likely gap between supply and demand. This information will also help to mould a global perspective plan of rice and wheat research in Bangladesh to meet the food demand of an increasing population for years to come.
Analysis of Recent Rice Price Dynamics in Bangladesh: Causes and Policy Options
Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology, 2021
Rice availability and affordability are the key determinants of food security in Bangladesh. Therefore, it becomes the most important crop for the social and political economy of the country. Although a tremendous technological advancement contributed to the increasing trend of rice production, its affordability threatened due to the increasing price at the consumers’ level. The recent natural calamities and COVID-19 have worsened the food security status across the world. This research has estimated the demand and supply of rice in the pandemic era and figured out the drivers of recent price hike both in the producers’ and consumers’ levels using empirical and cognitive approaches. Based on the findings, some actionable policy options have been suggested to address the price level of rice in Bangladesh towards sustaining food security