On the Future of Passenger Mobility and its Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Cities: Scenarios for Different Types of Policies (original) (raw)
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Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017
This paper compares and discusses possible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions due to different policy measures implemented in passenger car transport in the EU-15. The major instruments analyzed are fuel and registration taxes, support measures for biofuels as well as standards for specific CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars. The methodology applied is based on scenarios for the dynamic development of GHG emissions and energy consumption depending on implemented policies. Using the ALTER-MOTIVE model, created in the scope of an EU-funded project, in a dynamic framework a Business as usual and a Policy scenario are compared to extract the impacts of policies up to 2030. The major result is that in total, GHG emissions could be reduced at least by 33% in a selected Policy scenario compared to a Business-as-usual scenario up to 2030. In the future only a broad portfolio of different policy instruments and alternative technologies and fuels can reduce energy consumption and the resulting GHG emissions remarkably.
A global method for assessing energy and emissions for future mobility scenarios
Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe - HAL - SHS, 2021
HAL is a multidisciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.
Global Urban Passenger Travel Demand and CO2Emissions to 2050: New Model
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017
This paper presents long-term scenarios on the development of urban passenger mobility and related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 in global cities that have populations greater than 300,000 on the basis of the International Transport Forum’s new global urban passenger transport model. Results from the policy scenarios analysis show that in the baseline scenario total motorized mobility and related CO2emissions in cities will grow by 94% and 27% in 2050 compared with 2015. The share of private cars will continue to increase in developing regions while slightly decreasing in developed economies. Policy measures exist to fulfill mobility demand while reducing the carbon intensity of travel. Technology contributes the most to the CO2mitigation in the most transit-oriented scenarios. Behavioral policies such as fuel tax, lower transit fares, and controlled urban sprawl can bring the additional mitigation efforts required to make cities sustainable and are essential to combat cong...
Updated Models of Passenger Transport Related Energy Consumption of Urban Areas
Sustainability
Introduction: As the global warming threat has become more concrete in recent years, there is a need to update transport energy consumptions of cities and to understand how they relate to population density and transport infrastructure. Transportation is one of the major sources of global warming and this update is an important warning for urban planners and policy makers to take action in a more consistent way. Analysis: This paper estimates and analyzes the passenger transport energy per person per year with a large and diverse sample set based on comparable, directly observable open-source data of 57 cities, distributed over 33 countries. The freight transport energy consumption, which accounts for a large portion of urban transport energy, is not considered. The main focus of the analysis is to establish a quantitative relation between population density, transport infrastructure and transport energy consumption. Results: In a first step, significant linear relations have been f...
Urban transport policies and greenhouse gas emissions in Brussels
International Journal of Sustainable Development, 2003
The emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) from transportation in Belgium, and especially in the Brussels area, are observed as a major and increasing factor of environmental pressure. This is linked to a growth of economic activity, especially in the tertiary sectors, which require more and more offices, and thus commuting. In the frame of Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change (1997) a target of 7.5% reduction of GHG emissions by the year 2010 (from the level of 1990) is an accepted Belgian obligation, for which feasibility and implementation measures should be assessed.
Passenger Transport Shift to Green Mobility – Assessment Using TIMES Model
Environmental and Climate Technologies
The transport sector accounts for about one-third of the final energy consumption in Latvia, most of which are fossil fuels in road transport. Fossil fuel consumption increases emissions and demands an immediate change in mobility habits to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This paper focuses on the in-depth analyses of passenger transport by modelling the potential use of cleaner energy sources and the possible decrease of consumption through the modal shift. As travel modes differ for each distance, the study is done for three distances – short, medium and long. Three scenarios have been analysed – BASE scenario including existing measures and taxation policy, NECP scenario including measures defined in the National Energy and Climate Plan until 2030 and GHG TARGET scenario aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The proposed modelling approach allows for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of existing and planned measures in greening mobility. Results prov...
1 Management of Urban Mobility to Control Climate Change in Cities 2
2013
51 The need of decarbonization of urban mobility is one of the main priorities for all countries to achieve 52 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. In general, the transport modes which have 53 experienced the most growth in recent years tend to be the most polluting. Most efforts have been 54 focused on the vehicle efficiency improvements and vehicle fleet renewal; nevertheless more emphasis 55 should be placed on strategies related to the management of urban mobility and modal share. Research of 56 individual travel which analyzes CO2 emissions and car and public transport share in daily mobility will 57 enable better assessments of the potential of urban mobility measures introduced to limit GHG emissions 58 produced by transport in cities. This paper explores the climate change impacts of daily mobility in Spain 59 using data from two National Travel Surveys (NTSs) (2000 and 2006) and includes a method by which to 60 estimate the CO2 emissions associated with each j...
The urban transport systems of most cities are particularly vulnerable to the ‘ big rollover ’ in world oil production and still unprepared for the inevitable transition to a post-petroleum world. Likewise, global warming is placing additional pressure on urban transport to reduce its energy use and CO 2 output. This chapter provides a review of private and public transport, urban form, energy use, modal energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions patterns in an international sample of 84 cities in the USA, Canada, Australia, Western Europe, high and low income Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and China. It concentrates on factors such as urban density, transport infrastructure and car ownership and use, public transport and non-motorized mode use, in order to better understand patterns of passenger transport energy use and CO 2 emissions in different cities. It finds that average per capita energy use in private passenger transport is about 24 times higher in the study ’ s US cities than in the Chinese cities. CO 2 emissions from passenger transport follow a similar pattern. For example, Atlanta, the most car-dependent city in the study, produces 105 times more CO 2 per capita than Ho Chi Minh City. Some policy implications are outlined to reduce urban passenger transport energy use and CO 2 production. Wealth, for example, is not found to be a fundamental explanatory variable in understanding car use and energy use patterns in urban transport systems. Physical planning and infrastructure differences on the other hand are found to be fundamental. This means that urban and transport planners have a key role to play in shaping the direction of passenger transport energy consumption and CO 2 production in cities. This includes programs to limit growth in car and motorcycle ownership and usage, especially in developing cities and to protect and enhance the roles of public transport, walking and cycling, which are being decimated by motorization. Urban rail modes are found not only to be the most energy efficient, but also result in higher public transport use, offering speeds that are more competitive with the car. They also fit best with the need for strategically increasing urban densities through transit-oriented development, another key policy conclusion from the research. Traffic congestion is shown to act as a break on growing car use and energy use and urban policy needs to recognize this by a cessation of freeway building in cities and prioritising infrastructure for public transport and non-motorized modes. Likewise, high parking levels in central cities encourages greater car and energy use and needs to be curtailed and reduced. Finally, cities need to strategically focus denser, mixed use urban development into nodes, including traditional CBDs, linked by high quality public transport operating on its own right-of-way to create more transit-oriented, polycentric metropolises.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The importance of a focus on mobility and the kilometres travelled using light duty vehicles is reflected in the persistence of strong demand for personal mobility and emissions that tend to be linked with population and economic growth. Simulation results using the WITCH model show that changes in the kilometres driven per year using light duty vehicles have a notable impact on investments in alternate transport options. As a result, different mobility futures have notably different optimal vehicle fleet compositions. As climate policy becomes more stringent, achieving abatement with increased mobility implies large investments in battery related technologies and less investments in technologies related to the conversion of biofuel from biomass. Climate policy consistent with a 2°C temperature increase above pre-industrial levels in 2100 leads to a quick transition to plug-in hybrid drive vehicles. Without decreases in mobility trends the cost effective achievement of such a target results in the electrification of passenger vehicles commencing between 2020 and 2035.
Urban Transport Policies and Greenhouse Gases Emissions in Brussels
2015
The emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) from transportation in Belgium, and especially in the Brussels area, are observed as a major and increasing factor of environmental pressure. This is linked to a growth of economic activity, especially in the tertiary sectors, which require more and more offices, and thus commuting. In the frame of Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change (1997) a target of 7.5 % reduction of GHG emissions by the year 2010 (from the level of 1990) is an accepted Belgian obligation, for which feasibility and implementation measures should be assessed. The aim of the paper is to analyse the GHG emissions from mobility induced by transport and other urban policies. Among main environmental impacts of mobility, the emission of carbon dioxide, and consumption of non-renewable fuel (gasoline and diesel-oil) are assessed for a case study of the Brussels-Capital region, comparing the Kyoto framework and business-as-usual scenarios. For this purpose a system of models is b...