Deviations in Kilometres Travelled: The Impact of Different Mobility Futures on Energy Use and Climate Policy (original) (raw)
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Energy Policy, 2013
With a focus on establishing whether climate targets can be met under different personal transport scenarios we introduce a transport sector representing the use and profile of light domestic vehicles (LDVs) into the integrated assessment model WITCH. In doing so we develop long term projections of light domestic vehicle use and define potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. By modelling the demand for LDVs, the use of fuels, and the types of vehicles introduced we can analyse the potential impacts on the whole economy. We find that with large increases in the use of vehicles in many regions around the globe, the electrification of LDVs is important in achieving cost effective climate targets and minimising the impact of transportation on other sectors of the economy.
Sustainability, 2013
The reduction of CO 2 emissions associated with vehicle use is an important element of a global transition to sustainable mobility and is a major long-term challenge for society. Vehicle and fuel technologies are part of a global energy system, and assessing the impact of the availability of clean energy technologies and advanced vehicle technologies on sustainable mobility is a complex task. The global energy transition (GET) model accounts for interactions between the different energy sectors, and we illustrate its use to inform vehicle technology choices in a decarbonizing economy. The aim of this study is to assess how uncertainties in future vehicle technology cost, as well as how developments in other energy sectors, affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology choices. Given the uncertainties in future costs and efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned at the present time. We conclude that a portfolio approach with research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways is the best way forward to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility. The practical ramifications of this analysis are illustrated in the portfolio approach to providing sustainable mobility adopted by the Ford Motor Company.
Energy, 2014
Decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming below 2 C. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. To test this hypothesis, we compare long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the world from five large-scale energy-economy models. We diagnose the model's characteristics by subjecting them to three climate policies. We systematically analyze mitigation levers along the chain of causality from mobility to emissions, finding that some models lack relevant mitigation options. We partially confirm that transport is less reactive to a given carbon tax than the non-transport sectors: in the first half of the century, transport mitigation is delayed by 10e30 years compared to non-transport mitigation. At high carbon prices towards the end of the century, however, the three global models achieve deep transport emission reductions by >90% through the use of advanced vehicle technologies and low-carbon primary energy; especially biomass with CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) plays a crucial role. The extent to which earlier mitigation is possible strongly depends on implemented technologies and model structure. Compared to the global models, the two partial-equilibrium models are less flexible in their reaction to climate policies.
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017
This paper compares and discusses possible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions due to different policy measures implemented in passenger car transport in the EU-15. The major instruments analyzed are fuel and registration taxes, support measures for biofuels as well as standards for specific CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars. The methodology applied is based on scenarios for the dynamic development of GHG emissions and energy consumption depending on implemented policies. Using the ALTER-MOTIVE model, created in the scope of an EU-funded project, in a dynamic framework a Business as usual and a Policy scenario are compared to extract the impacts of policies up to 2030. The major result is that in total, GHG emissions could be reduced at least by 33% in a selected Policy scenario compared to a Business-as-usual scenario up to 2030. In the future only a broad portfolio of different policy instruments and alternative technologies and fuels can reduce energy consumption and the resulting GHG emissions remarkably.
Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, 2022
Many cities have set goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Mobility is a major target sector as it is still widely fossil fuel-dependent and largely car-oriented. In this paper, a new methodological approach for modelling the impact of different policies on mobility, energy demand and resulting flow and embedded greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles is derived up to 2050. Finally, this approach is applied to the case of the City of Vienna. Three scenarios are developed with different policy targets focusing on battery electric vehicles and public transport. Each scenario was calculated with an average mix of electricity and a mix of renewable energy sources to be reached by 2030. The major conclusions are: (i) The impact of policies is of tremendous importance; (ii) Travel activity must be reduced and (iii) Public transport must be supported (iv) The electricity mix has to be switched to renewable energy sources.
A global method for assessing energy and emissions for future mobility scenarios
Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe - HAL - SHS, 2021
HAL is a multidisciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.
Environmental Science & Technology, 2009
The regionalized Global Energy Transition (GET-R 6.0) model has been modified to include a detailed description of lightduty vehicle options and used to investigate the potential impact of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and concentrating solar power (CSP) on cost-effective fuel/vehicle technologies in a carbon-constrained world. Total CO 2 emissions were constrained to achieve stabilization at 400-550 ppm, by 2100, at lowest total system cost. The dominant fuel/vehicle technologies varied significantly depending on CO 2 constraint, future cost of vehicle technologies, and availability of CCS and CSP. For many cases, no one technology dominated on a global scale. CCS provides relatively inexpensive low-CO 2 electricity and heat which prolongs the use of traditional ICEVs. CSP displaces fossil fuel derived electricity, prolongs the use of traditional ICEVs, and promotes electrification of passenger vehicles. In all cases considered, CCS and CSP availability had a major impact on the lowest cost fuel/vehicle technologies, and alternative fuels are needed in response to expected dwindling oil and natural gas supply potential by the end of the century.
2009
A method for assessing the potential and costs of various technologies for CO 2 emission reduction of passenger cars, using a newly built computer model, is presented. A variety of vehicle technologies, each with different attributes regarding CO 2 emissions and costs, is simulated for the supply side, as well a variety of different synthetic customer groups for the demand side within the model. An econometric based selection process calculates the number of each type of new vehicle sold in any year of the simulation. Hence, deriving future market shares of vehicle technologies and overall CO 2 emissions is possible. The detailed technology database used for calculations includes conventional vehicle propulsion technologies as well as innovative vehicle concepts (battery electric vehicles, extended range electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles). Cost degression effects for new technologies are incorporated using learning curves, with costs depending on the cumulative number of vehicles sold. Different types of fuels and influence of crude oil price on fuel prices are taken into account, as well as different taxation systems. Using the model, different scenarios for future development of CO 2 emissions of the new vehicle fleet as well as the vehicle stock are evaluated for the time period 2009-2030.