The impact of climate change on fertility* (original) (raw)
Related papers
Fertility Response to Climate Shocks
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Études et Documents is a working papers series. Working Papers are not refereed, they constitute research in progress. Responsibility for the contents and opinions expressed in the working papers rests solely with the authors. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should be addressed to the authors.
Climate Change, Fertility and Sahelian Demographics
Journal of Sustainable Development
Climate change, especially in Africa’s central Sahel region, is occurring in the context of exponential population rise with countries like Chad and Niger still in the “early expanding phase” of demographic growth. While many experts predict a mid-century climate and demographic ‘mega crisis’ for the region; our paper looks at the effect of the rising temperature, through the medium of increased temperature and precipitation variability upon fertility and hence demographic trends as we advance into the 21st century. The paper uses climate data and DHS (Demographic and Health Survey) data from Chad, which has demonstrated significant warming since the late 1960’s. We create a weather shock variable that is defined as a t>2 departure from the post-1960 mean of temperature and precipitation by month, year, and GIS location. We regress the following years’ human fertility outcomes by month and GIS location upon these shocks when occurring in the growing months of June, July, and Augu...
Climate Shocks and Teenage Fertility
2020
In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occurrence of climatic shocks can lower the marginal cost of a child and raise fertility. We test this hypothesis using longitudinal data from Madagascar. Exploiting exogenous within-district year-to-year variation in rainfall deficits in combination with individual fixed effects, we find that drought occurring in the agricultural season increases the fertility of young women living in agricultural households. This effect is long-lasting, as it is not reversed within four years after the drought occurrence. Analyzing mechanisms, we find that drought does not affect common factors of high fertility such as marriage timing. It operates mainly through a reduction of female agricultural income. Indeed, agricultural drought reduces the number of hours worked by women in agriculture but not men. It has no effect on the fertility of young women living in non-agricultural households, or in non-agrarian ...
Working Paper Series Fertility Response to Climate Shocks
2019
In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occurrence of climate shocks such as droughts can lower the opportunity cost of having children, and raise fertility. Using longitudinal household data from Madagascar, we estimate the causal effect of drought occurrences on fertility, and explore the nature of potential mechanisms driving this effect. We exploit exogenous within-district year-to-year variation in rainfall deficits, and find that droughts occurring during the agricultural season significantly increase the number of children born to women living in agrarian communities. This effect is long lasting, as it is not reversed within four years following the drought occurrence. Analyzing the mechanism, we find that droughts have no effect on common underlying factors of high fertility such as marriage timing and child mortality. Furthermore, droughts have no significant effect on fertility if they occur during the non-agricultural seaso...
BMC Public Health, 2021
Background: Climate-induced disruptions like drought can destabilize household and community livelihoods, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. This qualitative study explores the impact of severe and prolonged droughts on gendered livelihood transitions, women's social and financial wellbeing, and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes in two Zambian provinces. Methods: In September 2020, in-depth interviews (n = 20) and focus group discussions (n = 16) with 165 adult women and men in five drought-affected districts, as well as key informant interviews (n = 16) with civic leaders and healthcare providers, were conducted. A team-based thematic analysis approach, guided by the Framework Method, was used to code transcript text segments, facilitating identification and interpretation of salient thematic patterns. Results: Across districts, participants emphasized the toll drought had taken on their livelihoods and communities, leaving farming households with reduced income and food, with many turning to alternative income sources. Female-headed households were perceived as particularly vulnerable to drought, as women's breadwinning and caregiving responsibilities increased, especially in households where women's partners out-migrated in search of employment prospects. As household incomes declined, women and girls' vulnerabilities increased: young children increasingly entered the workforce, and young girls were married when families could not afford school fees and struggled to support them financially. With less income due to drought, many participants could not afford travel to health facilities or would resort to purchasing health commodities, including family planning, from private retail pharmacies when unavailable from government facilities. Most participants described changes in fertility intentions motivated by drought: women, in particular, expressed desires for smaller families, fearing drought would constrain their capacity to support larger families. While participants cited some ongoing activities in their communities to support climate change adaptation, most acknowledged current interventions were insufficient.
Climate Change and Birth Weight
American Economic Review, 2009
There is a growing consensus that emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activity will alter the earth's climate, most notably by causing temperatures, precipitation levels, and weather variability to increase. The design of optimal climate change mitigation policies requires estimates of the health and other benefits of reductions in greenhouse gases; current evidence on the magnitudes of the direct and indirect impacts, however, is considered insufficient for reliable conclusions (A.J. . 1
Discussion Paper, Sustainable Population Australia, 2022
Key Points: 1 Human activities are releasing greenhouse gases and causing climate change. The quantity of greenhouse gases is the product of emissions per person multiplied by the population. Hence climate change can’t be ‘blamed’ on either consumption patterns or population but both together: each multiplies the other and both must be part of action to avoid catastrophic outcomes. 2 Population growth increases people’s vulnerability to climate change in many ways. Globally, water and food insecurity are already increasing due to population pressure. More people mean more housing vulnerable to floods, bushfires and storm damage; rapid growth leads to inadequate infrastructure; larger and denser cities raise the urban heat-island effect and increase disease transmission. 3 The future challenges of climate change, including emissions reduction and adaptation, can be lessened by minimising further population growth. In developed countries like Australia, having fewer children is the most impactful lifestyle choice available to individuals to lessen their environmental impact. High immigration also increases emissions, since most migrants to Australia shift to more carbon-intensive lifestyles. 4 High population growth in low-income countries can cause environmental impacts such as deforestation and soil degradation. These not only accelerate climate change by reducing carbon stores in forests and soils, but also reduce the capacity of the local food production system to adapt to the changing climate. Lower population growth in low-income countries will help increase their standard of living, while minimising the growth of total emissions as their per capita emissions rise. 5 In high-fertility countries, voluntary family planning services are severely underfunded and under-promoted, leaving many women without the means to avoid pregnancies they don’t want. Providing these services, empowering women and promoting small families would have multiple benefits for communities coping with climate change. Family planning programs are a ‘best buy’ for development, environment and climate adaptation. 6 Climate mitigation models show that sufficient emissions reduction cannot be achieved unless the model scenarios assume a rapid peak and decline in global population. Population stabilisation alone can’t solve climate change, but ignoring population will ensure we fail.
2009
The links between rapid population growth and concerns regarding climate change have received little attention. Some commentators have argued that slowing population growth is necessary to reduce further rises in carbon emissions. Others have objected that this would give rise to dehumanizing "population control" programmes in developing countries. Yet the perspective of the developing countries that will be worst affected by climate change has been almost completely ignored by the scientific literature. This deficit is addressed by this paper, which analyses the first 40 National Adaptation Programmes of Action reports submitted by governments of least-developed countries to the Global Environment Facility for funding. Of these documents, 93% identified at least one of three ways in which demographic trends interact with the effects of climate change: (i) faster degradation of the sources of natural resources; (ii) increased demand for scarce resources; and (iii) heightened human vulnerability to extreme weather events. These findings suggest that voluntary access to family planning services should be made more available to poor communities in least-developed countries. We stress the distinction between this approach, which prioritizes the welfare of poor communities affected by climate change, and the argument that population growth should be slowed to limit increases in global carbon emissions. The paper concludes by calling for increased support for rights-based family planning services, including those integrated with HIV/AIDS services, as an important complementary measure to climate change adaptation programmes in developing countries. Une traduction en français de ce résumé figure à la fin de l'article. Al final del artículo se facilita una traducción al español. املقالة. لهذه الكامل النص نهاية يف الخالصة لهذه العربية الرتجمة