Strategic Foresight as a Prerequisite for a Timely Reaction (original) (raw)
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The Science of Foresight: How to Succeed in Strategic Forecasting and Planning
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While this textbook will not provide the students with the ability to foresee the future, it will equip them to anticipate potential outcomes. It will not offer conclusive solutions, but it will enable students to pose critical questions. Although this book will not dictate when or how to act, it will enhance the strategic thinking of anticipating challenges and identify opportunities. This textbook will assist in embracing uncertainty, navigating intricate challenges, and cultivating resilience. However, it is more of a cookbook; therefore, it is left on the individuals to customize the ingredients to suit their preferences.
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This is an account of the US Naval Security Group Command's (NSG) search for strategic management during a time of unprecedented change. In response to dramatic shifts resulting from the end of the Cold War, Congressional pressures for cross-service cooperation , and the emergence of new technologies, the NSG engaged in a six-year strategic planning process. The process helped the group refocus and develop strategies better suited to new demands for military preparedness. The process was incremental and eclectic; early leadership came from middle managers, rather than top of®cials. The process began with a`quick and dirty' planning session initiated by department heads to deal with an immediate crisis and gained momentum and top-level involvement as the ®rst session and subsequent strategic planning efforts showed results. The process was guided by a strategic planning framework speci®cally designed for public and non-pro®t organisations and relied on a variety of strategic planning tools and techniques, including stakeholder analyses, SWOT analyses and capturing the insights gained from scenario planning using the newer cognitive methods such as cognitive and oval mapping. This article provides a chronology of events over a sixyear period, explores some of the strategic planning tools and techniques used, details results achieved and discusses some of the major lessons learned.
"This collection of essays is intended to showcase the potentially wide applicability of Strategic Foresight and Warning approaches and concepts. These provide a suite of useful analytical tools for busy analysts within and outside government. Such tools may well be timely as policy analysts everywhere face the demanding task of having to make sense of an often bewildering variety of often- linked transnational security threats, challenges and opportunities that comprise the complex milieu within which Singapore and other countries find themselves inextricably a part of." Extract of Foreword By Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna Associate Professor Content: 1- Strategic Foresight and Warning: An Introduction by Helene Lavoix 2- Risks and Opportunities: The Role of Strategic Foresight and Warning by Jan Eichstedt 3- Cognitive Biases: What We Think Affects the World -The Case of Climate Change and Terrorism by Marc Villot 4- The future of food security: complexity and a systemic approach by Ya-Yi Ong 5- Strategic foresight and warning, the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense and counterinsugency in Iraq by Justin M. Goldman 6- Framing the Future for ASEAN by Loh Woon Liang 7- Typhoon Ketsana and the effects of cognitive biases in a government’s strategic foresight and early warning capability by Gayedelle V. Florendo 8- Navigating Uncertainty: Understanding and Appreciating the Role of the Human Analyst by B.C. Tan
International journal of intelligence and Counterintelligence, 2020
This paper addresses a critical intelligence challenge, both in the military – the security field – and the civilian–business sector: the prevention of strategic surprises. Formidable surprise attacks directed at organizations on the one hand, and the rich potential of the methodologies for working with scenarios on the other, lead us to propose the application of this methodology for the prevention of strategic surprises. Such use may help to improve an organization’s ability to avert an attack and contribute to the organization’s ability to address it, should the attack occur.
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The 2021 12th International Conference on E-business, Management and Economics, 2021
The amount of data and information is growing rapidly and exponentially. A similar degree of change applies to market dynamics, volatile customer requirements, shortened product lifecycles and the amounts of environmental uncertainties in the context of organisational innovation management. Strategic Foresight (SF) offers an approach to deal with environmental uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence (AI) has huge potential to support SF by means of collecting and analysing data as well as automatizing information research and analysis tasks. The current paper analyses the potentials and organisational practices at the nexus of AI and SF. In the form of expert interviews, current practices and expected future application potentials of AI in SF are analysed. Furthermore, challenges and potential weaknesses of AI in this context are discussed and an outlook on potential future visions of AI in SF from practitioners' points of view is provided. The results show that currently AI is only applied in a very limited way to support SF, mostly in terms of supporting trend and customer data analysis. However, the results also indicate high future potentials of AI in SF. Experts agree that AI will have a high impact on SF, mainly in terms of automatizing information research and data analysis tasks and subsequently allowing employees to focus on more complex tasks in SF which require human abilities like intuition, creativity, courage and entrepreneurial thinking.t. CCS CONCEPTS • Applied computing → Enterprise computing; • Information systems → Information systems applications; • Computing methodologies → Artificial intelligence.
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2002
Most organisations operate primarily on the basis of priorities and principles laid down in the past, within a taken-for-granted worldview. They modify their underlying past-orientation with inputs from the current environment such as market information, economic signals and government regulations. But few attempt to bring these factors from the past and present into a coherent relationship with the forward view. Since the latter remains a collective blind spot this article concentrates on the construction, maintenance and uses of the forward view.
Multinational companies are increasingly exploring new methods and tools to identify disruptions in the environment and are using this information for competitive advantage. The European Conference on Strategic Foresight is a forum of professionals for benchmarking and advancing Strategic Foresight practices. This paper summarizes the results of the 1 st European Conference on Strategic foresight held in December 2007 in Berlin, Germany. Three major outcomes can be highlighted: Firstly the participants proposed a mission, goals and a modus operati for future conferences. Secondly they identified "barriers" and "promotion mechanisms" for Corporate Foresight. And thirdly the practitioners identified 8 topics for further advancement of Corporate Foresight practices and they can be used by researchers to direct and focus their research activities.
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The purpose of this paper is to deepen understanding of the role that hindsight plays in foresight. The authors argue that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future. However, there are several biases that influence our perceptions and conceptions of the past. These biases act as constraints on our ability to understand the driving forces that emerge from the past, play out through the present and become the critical uncertainties in the future. They could result in misperceptions about events or processes and so may impair foresight methodologies, such as scenario thinking. Such a foresight bias is characterized by a combination of hindsight biases, creeping determinism and searching for information that corresponds to people's views about both the past and the future. The cognitive linkages between past, present and future are discussed and the role of counter-to-factual analysis is emphasized as an antidote to the foresight bias. Counter-to-factual analysis is both a cognitive process and an analytical reasoning tool applied to the analysis of historical data. Using insights generated from the explorations of counter-to-factual reasoning, the authors present a hindsight-foresight paragon that fortifies current foresight enhancing techniques with counter-to-factual analysis.
"SCANNING, SENSING AND ACTING" A STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FRAMEWORK
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This article presents a powerful and flexible strategic foresight framework for organisations to think and act on the future: SCANNING, SENSING AND ACTING. Scanning for Trends, Weak Signals and Uncertainties and use this insights to build alternative scenarios for the future, are ways of making sense of change and improve your approach to Strategy and Innovation. This framework includes the building of a Scanning Dashboard with all the driving forces of change (megatrends, weak signals, wild cards and uncertainties), the sense making of those drivers through foresight tools and methods (scenarios and systems maps), and the capability of translating and using all that knowledge and insights into the strategy and innovation processes of the company (innovation labs, strategic design tools or new business modelling).