Persistency in tourism expenditure in a small-open economy (original) (raw)
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Tourism has a significant impact on economic growth as put forth by the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Turkey's earnings from tourism were 31.5 billion dollars in 2015 according to TURKSTAT. This implies that tourism is an important industry for Turkey and has a significant impact on economy. Therefore, the question whether a policy implementation in tourism is long-lasting or not is critical for both the industry and whole economy. This study researches the persistence of policies in tourism industry, employing tourism income series for period of 2009M1-2015M12 and tests the stationarity of this series using traditional unit root tests as well as a wavelet-based unit root test developed by Fan and Gencay (2010). Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series have been used. The empirical results point out that the traditional unit root test has a proclivity to report that tourism income series is I(1) or non-stationary. On the other hand, the waveletbase unit root test indicates that tourism income is stationary. The empirical result of wavelet-based test implies that impact of a shock on this sector is transitory. The income in tourism industry will return more or less back to its meaning the following year.
An Investigation of Stationarity Properties of the Turkish Tourism Income Variable S
2019
Tourism has a significant impact on economic growth as put forth by the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Turkey’s earnings from tourism were 31.5 billion dollars in 2015 according to TURKSTAT. This implies that tourism is an important industry for Turkey and has a significant impact on economy. Therefore, the question whether a policy implementation in tourism is long-lasting or not is critical for both the industry and whole economy. This study researches the persistence of policies in tourism industry, employing tourism income series for period of 2009M1-2015M12 and tests the stationarity of this series using traditional unit root tests as well as a wavelet-based unit root test developed by Fan and Gencay (2010). Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series have been used. The empirical results point out that the traditional unit root test has a proclivity to report that tourism income series is I(1) or non-stationary. On the other hand, the wavelet-base unit root test indicates t...
The impact of external shocks on tourism sector: The case of Turkey
Acta turistica, 2007
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In recent years, Turkey has experienced economic crises, terrorist incidents and natural disasters. This study investigates whether these shocks have temporary or permanent effects on visitor arrivals. Random walk hypothesis asserts that a series is a non-stationary or a unit root process. If visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. If visitor arrivals series not include a unit root process, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. In this study, the “random walk hypothesis” is tested for visitor arrivals to Turkey during 1996-2014 using Im et al. (2003) panel unit root test. IPS test results allow rejecting the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to Turkey from the 15 major source countries between 1996 and 2014 have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.
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A Bound Test Approach to Cointegration of Tourism Demand
American Journal of Applied Sciences, 2009
Problem statement: Given the high contribution of tourism industry in the Malaysian economy, Malaysia has a vast view to increase its market share of the international tourist arrivals in the Asia Pacific region. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the long run and short run demand for tourism from top ten markets (country). Approach: To accomplish this objective the ARDL bound test approach to cointegration was carried out for quarterly time series data from 1998:Q1 to 2007: Q3. A three-stage procedure followed to test the direction of causality. In the first stage the order of integration was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests. The second stage involved testing for the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between arrivals, income, tourism price, tourism substitute price and travel cost. The third stage involved constructing standard Granger-type causality tests augmented with a lagged error-correction term where the series were cointegrated. Results: The result of ADF and PP unit root tests confirmed that all variables were stationary at first difference. In addition the results indicated that a long run relationship and between variables. Conclusion: The results indicated that tourists from these ten countries seem to be highly sensitive to the price and the alternative destinations are complementary to Malaysia. In addition the results showed that the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS, 2003) had a negative affects significantly affected Malaysia's tourism demand.
International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 2016
Purpose: The prime objective of this study is to re-investigate the tourism-led growth hypothesis by accommodating structural breaks over the annual period 1988-2014 for Pakistan. This study used two measure of tourism development -tourist arrivals and tourism expenditure per capita to explore the relationship between tourism and economic growth. Methodology: The unit root problem is tested by applying Ng-Perron unit root test. However, Perron, (1997) single structural break and Clemente et al. (1998) double structural breaks unit root tests also employed. To examine the long relationship between tourism and economic growth, we applied newly invented Bayer-Hanck, (2013) combine cointegration approach in the presence of structural breaks. The robustness of combine cointegration approach is tested by Johansen cointegration technique. Further, VECM Granger causality is used to understand the direction of causality during structural shocks. Findings: We found all data series stationary ...