An Investigation OfStationarity Properties Of The Turkish Tourism Income Variable (original) (raw)
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An Investigation of Stationarity Properties of the Turkish Tourism Income Variable S
2019
Tourism has a significant impact on economic growth as put forth by the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Turkey’s earnings from tourism were 31.5 billion dollars in 2015 according to TURKSTAT. This implies that tourism is an important industry for Turkey and has a significant impact on economy. Therefore, the question whether a policy implementation in tourism is long-lasting or not is critical for both the industry and whole economy. This study researches the persistence of policies in tourism industry, employing tourism income series for period of 2009M1-2015M12 and tests the stationarity of this series using traditional unit root tests as well as a wavelet-based unit root test developed by Fan and Gencay (2010). Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series have been used. The empirical results point out that the traditional unit root test has a proclivity to report that tourism income series is I(1) or non-stationary. On the other hand, the wavelet-base unit root test indicates t...
The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Tourism Income: The Case of Turkey
Özet Ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyen birçok faktör bulunmakla beraber bu çalışmada " Turizm Gelirleri – Ekonomik Büyüme " ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Türkiye için, 1964-2016 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Fourier ADF birim kök, Fourier eşbütünleşme ve zamanla değişen nedensellik testleri uygulanarak elde edilen bulgulara göre değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduğu, ayrıca değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Abstract There are many factors that affect economic growth, one of which is tourism income. This study analyzes the relationship between tourism income and economic growth. This paper utilizes annual data from 1964 to 2016 and checks for cointegration and causality between tourism income and economic growth. Fourier ADF unit root test, Fourier cointegration test and time varying causality tests indicate that there is cointegration between the variables and there is bidirectional causality relationships between economic growth and tourism income.
Persistency in tourism expenditure in a small-open economy
Anatolia an international journal of tourism and hospitality, 2017
This study aims to examine whether the shocks to the Turkish tourism have a permanent or a transitory effect on tourism expenditure for the period 1964-2012. We took the structural break periods from Lumsdaine and Papell (LP) unit-root test as a base and implemented the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit-root test for the three different sub-periods of the series of tourism expenditure. In this study, we also estimated the measure of half-life for the effects of shocks on the series under consideration and the grid-bootstrap method to estimate confidence intervals. The results show, irrespective of the structural breaks, the effect of shocks on tourism expenditure is persistent; however, considering the structural breaks, the effect of shocks on tourism expenditure is transitory.
Tourism and Economic Growth: A Time -Varying Parameter Approach (Case Study: Turkey)
Abstract The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of tourism on the economic growth in Turkey over the period of 1970-2011. This paper, unlike the traditional and conventional methods, proposes a new methodology – the time varying parameter (TVP) approach – to investigate tourism effects on Turkey’s economic growth. To that end, the behavioral change of tourists over time is traced using the Kalman filter approach. The results show that tourists have a positive impact on the economic growth of Turkey. We have found that a 1 percent increase in the spending of tourists leads to a 0.03 percent increase in the GDP per capita. In addition, physical and human capital and government consumption expenditure have positive effects on economic growth, while real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on Turkey’s economic growth. Finally, this study shows that the product elasticities are inelastic in Turkey during the period of 1970-2011. Key words: Tourism, Economic growth, Time Varying Parameter, Kalman-Filter, Turkey JEL Classification: L83, O40, C22, O52
2020
Purpose: The aim of the study is to reveal the relationship between economic growth and tourism receipts between 1995 and 2018 for Turkey. Design/methodology/approach: Econometric analysis method was used in the research. The existence of a long-term relationship between variables was questioned by the Johansen Cointegration Test. Least Squares Method was used for regression analysis. Findings: The results suggest that there is cointegration between economic growth and tourism receipts. In the long-run tourism receipts effect economic growth positively. According to the estimated model with Least Squares Method, each %1 increse in the tourism receipt increases GDP %0.21 and the percentage change in the tourism receipts can explain the %86 of the percentage change in GDP in the %95 confidence interval. Practical implications: This research has significant implications for both policy makers and investors. The government has to consider the effect of the tourism industry while planning the investments, expenditures and incentives. Originality/value: This study allows to make forecast for the future and gives opportunity to make comparison for the subsequent researchers with the latest findings in this field.
The impact of external shocks on tourism sector: The case of Turkey
Acta turistica, 2007
Sažetak The objective of this study is to assess the temporal impacts on Turkey's tourist arrivals. An econometric strategy is selected to determine the existence of unit roots in data series containing the quarterly number of tourist arrivals between 1993:1 and 2005:3. The ...
Time-Based Change of Tourism Revenues and the Effects of Turkish Liras Value (2002 – 2020)
DergiPark (Istanbul University), 2022
In this study, considering the data accessibility, the relationship between the tourism revenues of Turkey and the value of the Turkish Lira between 2002-2020 has been evaluated. This evaluation has been handled in two ways. The first one includes a time dependent evaluation of the relationship between the exchange rate and tourism revenues, and the second one a brief review about the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic within this case. In this context, time series analyzes were carried out based on the secondary data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute and TÜRSAB (Turkey Travel Agencies Association) and the exchange rate data announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. While the secondary data were analyzed between the years of 2002 and 2020, the data of 2020 were evaluated by taking the current COVID-19 pandemic into consideration. The data obtained during the research show that the economic and statistical results between the years 2002-2019 were in accordance with the predictions. In addition to the time dependent increase, the depreciation of the Turkish Lira has been spotted to have a positive effect on tourism revenues. Due to the restriction of national and international mobility within the precautions of COVID-19 pandemic measures, Turkey's 2020 tourism revenues were recorded just for the first and third quarters. The measurement in this section is about the time-dependent increasing effect of incomes and the reducing effect of the epidemic, rather than the effect of the value of the Turkish lira against the U.S. Dollar.
Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2019
Do shocks affect tourist inflows permanently or temporarily? To examine this question, we consider a region in Northern Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, known for its natural and scenic beauty and with a history of huge tourist inflows, both domestic and international. The tourist arrivals from significant source markets are investigated using univariate and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with two structural breaks to examine if shocks to the time path of visitors' inflow are permanent or transitory. According to the results, the univariate and LM unit root test with two breaks reject the unit root null for all major source markets. The findings suggest transistory effects rather than permanent effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Gilgit-Baltistan. This result further predicts the sustainability of the tourism sector in the region in the long run.
Tourism and economic growth: A global study on Granger causality and wavelet coherence
PLOS ONE, 2022
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between tourism and economic growth by using a panel data cointegration test, Granger causality test and Wavelet coherence analysis at the global level. This analysis examines 105 nations utilising panel data from 2003 to 2020. The findings indicates that in most regions, tourism contributes significantly to economic growth and vice versa. Developing trade across most of the regions appears to be a major influencer in the study, as a bidirectional association exists between trade openness and economic growth. Additionally, all regions other than the American region showed a one-way association between gross capital formation and economic growth. Therefore, it is crucial to highlight that using initiatives to increase demand would advance tourism while also boosting the economy.
The review of the data of Turkish tourism industry via the trend analysis method
Journal of tourism, leisure and hospitality, 2022
The way for Turkey to increase its tourism related income and to reach to a higher place within the global competition goes through achieving sustained tourism activities and keeping the whole tourism industry standing. This can only be achieved by rendering the enterprises in the industry financially improved and by conducting effective financial analyses. In this study, within the scope of findings, obtained by implementing trend analysis method onto the industrial data of the tourism industry, which is comprised of the accommodation and food & beverage related businesses in Turkey, supplied by The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, determinations regarding the financial status of the industry have been made. In Turkish tourism industry, the profitability between 2015 and 2018 was not at the desirable level. For the continuation of the success of the industry which recovered in 2019 and have been going through a successful period, as well as for the ensuring the efficiency of its activities, taking measures towards strengthening the structure of its equity capital and long-term foreign resources, shall be most beneficial for the industry.