Risk adjustment and risk selection on the sickness fund insurance market in five European countries (original) (raw)
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The German statutory health insurance market was exposed to competition in 1996. To avoid adverse selection, a prospective risk compensation scheme was introduced in 1994. Due to their low contribution rates, company-based sickness funds were able to attract a lot of new members. We analyze -using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel -the determinants of these transitions from 1995 to 2000. By estimating a simultaneous two equation system, we find that health status positively, and significantly, affects the probability of changing to a company-based sickness fund, especially after controlling for age. Thus the risk compensation scheme does not fully control for the health status of the changers. Consequently, the comparative advantages of company-based funds will increase over time. This observation provides evidence for the standard Rothschild-Stiglitz separating equilibrium.
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In 1996 insurees in Germany's statutory health insurance system were given a right to choose their sickness fund. To ensure that all funds had an equal starting position, a risk structure compensation scheme based on income and average expenditure by age and sex was introduced. From an analysis of expenditure and transfers, data on sickness fund membership and a published survey, the following effects can be identified: sickness funds merged, with a reduction in number from 1,221 to 420 between 1993 and 2000; the risk compensation scheme narrowed differences in contribution rates; insurees left the more expensive funds for cheaper ones; and increasing transfer sums indicate further risk segregation. Thus, the compensation mechanism will have to be retained permanently, although modifications are likely.
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In many countries, social health insurance systems are being reformed in favor of more competition among insurers, while premiums are community rated by regulation. The implicit incentives for insurers to engage in risk selection can only be curtailed using appropriate systems of risk-adjusted equalization payments among insurers. To develop these systems, predictors of individual utilization patterns have to be identified, e.g. via regression analysis using previous utilization data. In some countries such as Germany, such data are hardly ever available. In the early nineties, a number of sickness funds participated in an experiment in which individual utilization data were collected. Our data set covers more than 70 000 members of company sickness funds over a 5-year period. We analyze sociodemographic determinants of utilization which could be used as risk adjusters in a risk equalization scheme. Our results suggest that besides age and sex, the set of risk adjusters should include income, family status and a dummy for the last year of life.
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In Germany risk adjustment is a core element of the regulatory framework of competition between sickness funds. It shall create a level playing field between funds with very heterogeneous risk structures. Prior to 2009 risk adjustment was mainly by a demographic model. In 2009 morbidity based risk adjustment was introduced, embedded in a broader reform of the statutory health insurance system. The new formula covers 80 "severe" or "costly and chronic" diseases structured in a system of hierarchical groups.
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We analyzed the redistributive outcomes of sickness benefits using a typology of social insurance institutions, including four different systems, after adjusting for sickness risk factors. The aim is to empirically observe if the expected redistributive pattern of the typology could be verified whether or not considering the variations in sickness risk across the countries. Data on household earnings and sickness benefits in ten countries and for different years were taken from the Luxembourg Income Study. We also used data on labor force demography and educational attainment. Gini coefficients were used for measuring earnings inequality. Relative changes in earnings inequality for sickness benefits were predicted by social insurance institutional dummies using multiple regression analyses. Among the four different schemes, the encompassing system is found to be most redistributive, followed by basic security and targeting systems. The corporatist system has shown no significant difference from the encompassing system in redistributive outcomes.
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Risk adverse individuals demand a sickness insurance to cover the risk of income loss due to work incapacity. Since health or sickness is not easy to observe, there is asymmetric information causing the well-known problems with adverse selection and moral hazard. Furthermore, sickness, with resulting inability to work, is to some extent private information hidden to the insurer. One effect is that an efficient market solution will not be established.
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The introduction in 1996 of free choice among sickness funds in Germany was accompanied by a "risk structure compensation" (RSC) mechanism based on average spending by age and sex. Because chronically ill people were not adequately taken into account, competition for newly insured consumers concentrated on the healthy. The introduction in 2002 of disease management programs addresses this problem: Insured people in such programs are treated as a separate RSC category, making them a more "attractive" group that no longer generates a deficit. The degree of sickness fund activities and the fierce dispute with physicians are valid indicators that the incentives work.
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