Analytic Methods for Tactical Air Warfare - 2005: Air Campaign and Mathematical Analysis (original) (raw)

Analytic Methods for Tactical Air Warfare. Air Campaign and High-Energy Laser Propagation Analyses

The report describes analytical tasks performed for OSD/PA&E TACAIR during the period from June 2003 through September 2004. The report describes a probabilistic model of campaigns for air superiority between two opponents, an analysis of force concentration in deterministic Lanchester campaigns, and an analysis of high-energy laser propagation. The campaign model is built on research conducted in previous tasks. The primary scenario has relatively few, technically superior defenders being attacked by numerous, technically inferior attackers. The model includes options for both attacker and defender force packages. The ability of the defender to identify and select high value attack formations is a selectable model option. In the model , the attacker optimizes its order-of-battle based on the expected values of targets destroyed and defenders killed. In addition to the model discussions, the report contains a mathematical derivation of force concentration benefits in deterministic L...

Stochastic Lanchester Air-to-Air Campaign Model: Model Description and Users Guides

This report documents the latest version of the Stochastic Lanchester Air-to-Air Campaign Model (SLAACM), developed by LMI for the Tactical Air Division, a component of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Program Analysis and Evaluation (OSD PA&E). During the past year, optimized offensive air campaigns, including suppression of enemy air defense and the impact of electronic warfare and low observable technology, have been added to the basic air defense SLAACM to produce a new "attack" version that includes both defense and offense scenarios. The "classic" air defense SLAACM has been retained as a separate version. SLAACM is a fast and flexible model designed for analysts who need to consider many combat scenario options quickly and who wish to have indications of the uncertainties in military outcomes. SLAACM models both the defensive and offensive counter-air battle, including order of battle optimization by both attackers and defenders. The current version...

Combat Modeling and the Airland Battle-Past, Present, and Future

1991

Many theater-level combat simulation models were developed with a linear NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict in mind. Conversely, emerging AirLand Battle-Future doctrine stresses smaller forces on nonlinear battlefields. This paper describes how an existing theater-level model, the Concepts Evaluation Model (CEM), models many AirLand Battle and AirLand Battle-Future tenets with examples from Operation Desert Storm Campaign Analyses. THE METHODOLOGY MAY BE APPLIED TO any ground combat simulation model with properties similar to CEM (CEM is briefly described in Chapter 2). Recommended application would specifically include force on force theaterlevel combat models. MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS (1) AirLand Battle-Future (or AirLand Warfare or AirLand Operations) will be accepted by the US Army as its doctrine. (2) Most deterministic theater-level models are similar enough in their properties to allow application of some or all of the concepts embodied within this paper. (3) Computer simulations will continue to provide important insights into combat capabilities of forces. MAJOR LIMITATIONS (1) Applications and methodologies used within apply to CEM. Dissimilarities of other combat simulations may preclude adaptations of any or all of these insights. (2) The applications and methodologies described here were developed over an extremely short time period in order to provide timely, realistic simulations of critical combat contingency plans. Refinement or replacement of any or all of these methodologies after further research and development is possible. RESEARCH PAPER DATA Audience: Analysts familiar with the basic theories, assumptions, and challenges of combat simulation models. It is not intended for a lay audience.

On current issues in defence systems analysis and combat modelling

Omega, 1985

Summarizing the discussions of the 1982 symposium sponsored by NATO's Defence Research Group and directed by this author, the paper puts forward some major issues in defence systems analysis and combat modelling related to: (1) the architectural approaches to the design of military campaign simulation models; (2) the verification and validation of models; (3) the employment of combat simulation, field trials and exercises in an exploratory research mode in order to gain insights rather than supporting solutions; (4) the use of interactive combat models to obtain a better understanding of cognitive functions in command and control, especially also with a view to structuring knowledge bases for military expert systems; (5) the type and use of planning models permitting the defence planner to arrive at robust solutions to his problems, not least with regard to possible responses by the potential antagonists.

Modeling of combat operations

Vojnotehnicki glasnik

Introduction/purpose: The goal of the research in this paper is to present and evaluate the method of modeling operations by aggregating forces by simulating the battle process with Lanchester's equations. This method is the software basis of a certain number of programs used in NATO, in war simulations, and in the planning and analysis of operations. Its value is in understanding the consequences of decisions made with outcomes and results of combat actions. Methods: The case study of the well-known Operation Desert Storm gathered the necessary data on operational parameters and the way forces are used in battles. The obtained data were transformed into operational variables of the combat model using the force aggregation method, whose simulation was carried out using the method of differential Lanchester's equations (quadratic law). Results: By simulating the modeled operation, the parameters of the outcome of the conflict were obtained with numerical indicators of success...

Mathematical modeling and optimization of the tactical entity defensive engagement

2015

Mathematical modeling and optimization is commonly used in many application areas. Computational support of not only military processes in not exceptional in this decade, however its scope still lies outside the direct decision support of commanders in various operations. The latest trends of technology development require further operational and technological development of decision making process support. This paper deals with mathematical modeling of the defensive behavior of the tactical entity. We implement the built model into our tactical information system. The system is designed for an effective and precise prediction of possible scenarios of a situation at hand, but solution of the particular operational task is based on individual approaches and could not be generalized yet. The solution of individual operational problem usually addresses the multi-criteria integration of operational analysis and models linked to the proper quantification and criteria setting. Finally, we...

Modeling and analyzing army air assault operations via simulation

SIMULATION, 2011

It is very important to use combat simulation in personnel training and preparing them for different war scenarios. Simulation modeling and analysis methodologies gives an opportunity to staff officers and commanders to measure the effectiveness of their plans and take necessary precautions. In a simulated environment, different combat scenarios can be tried without actually deploying the units to the combat area and getting ‘losts, costs, and risks’. As one of the most complicated and decisive operations on the road to victory, ‘air assault operations’ are high-risk, high-payoff operations that, when properly planned and vigorously executed, allow commanders to take the initiative in combat areas. In this study, we develop a simulation system called the Air Assault Operations Simulation Model (AAOSM) that allows planners to: (1) analyze air assault operations early in the decision process and refine those models as their decision process evolves, (2) perform ‘ bottleneck analysis’ ...

Stochastic trajectory optimisation for aircraft in air combat

2005

Games Theory is used to model conflict scenarios where two or more players compete to achieve a predefined objective. This paper presents the development of a stochastic modeling technique to optimise the trajectory of two aircraft in an air combat situation. One aircraft will act as an evader and the other as a pursuer. The study considers pilot and aircraft performance limitations and assumes that each aircraft possesses complete knowledge of the states of the opponent. In optimisation routines, a set of the evader's potential trajectories are randomly generated and evaluated. Each trajectory is played for 100 seconds. The end result is the final distance between both players and the best trajectory is the one that gives the longest distance. This trajectory will be used in main simulation for 100 seconds of play. For the next 100 seconds, optimisation routines are called again to find a new optimised trajectory for use in the main simulation. This process is repeated until both aircraft intercept. A proof-of-concept computer program was written and is presented in this paper.

Comparative analysis of kill probability one of the main features of Air Defense Integrated Systems

INCAS BULLETIN, 2014

The combat features of the Ground Based Air Defence Systems represent the potential of search, discovery, indicate, combat and destruction of the enemy's air assets and the ability to manoeuvre of forces and combat means, for the purpose of capturing the enemy's airspace and avoid actions and attack to defend objectives (of troops) assigned in the area of responsibility tacking into account the conditions established by the mission. The paper is focused on a comparative study on the possibilities of target destruction of the Air Air Defence Systems (antiaircraft artillery and Surface-To-Air Missiles). Two situations were chosen: for the first case, related to S 1 , S 2 and S 3 , we've assumed the presence of a flying target describing a uniform rectilinear trajectory both in the presence and in the absence of the enemy's electronic jamming. For the second case concerning S 4 we've assumed that the target changed its angle of flight.

Modeling and optimizing military air operations

Proceedings of the 48h IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC) held jointly with 2009 28th Chinese Control Conference, 2009

Dynamic programming has recently received significant attention as a possible technology for formulating control commands for decision makers in an extended complex enterprise that involves adversarial behavior. Enterprises of this type are typically modeled by a nonlinear discrete time dynamic system. The state is controlled by two decision makers, each with a different objective function and different hierarchy of decision making structure. To illustrate this enterprise, we derive a state space dynamic model of an extended complex military operation that involves two opposing forces engaged in a battle. The model assumes a number of fixed targets that one force is attacking and the other is defending. Due to the number of control commands, options for each force, and the steps during which the two forces could be engaged, the optimal solution for such a complicated dynamic game over all stages is computationally extremely difficult, if not impossible, to propose. As an alternative, we propose an expeditious suboptimal solution for this type of adversarial engagement. We discuss a solution approach where the decisions are decomposed hierarchically and the task allocation is separate from cooperation decisions. This decoupled solution, although suboptimal in the global sense, is useful in taking into account how fast the decisions should be in the presence of adversaries. An example scenario illustrating this military model and our solution approach is presented.