Phony populism: The misuse of opinion polls in the National Post (original) (raw)
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La Loi electorate du Canada, adoptee en 2000, regit la fa$on dont les madias doivent divulguer les donn&s techniques concernant les methodes utilises pour realiser des sondages en p^riode electorale. Mais la couverture mediatique des sondages faits hors des periodes electorales, qui n'est pas soumise a ces regies, ne fait l'objet que d'une autoregulation. Dans cet article, nous analysons la couverture faite par trois journaux {La Presse, le Globe and Mail et le Calgary Herald) de ces deux types de sondages. Nos resultats montrent que la fa$on dont les medias divulguent les donn^es techniques relatives aux sondages est loin de correspondre aux normes reconnues dans Tindustrie. Toutefois, ces informations sont au moins aussi completes dans le cas des sondages non electoraux que dans celui des sondages electoraux. Par ailleurs, on observe que, dans les articles de fond qui traitent de sondages realises pour les journaux qui les publient, on retrouve significativement plus de donnees techniques que dans les courts articles ou il est simplement fait mention de sondages non realises pour le compte des journaux qui les publient. Nous concluons done que les normes et les regies qui s'appliquent b la divulgation des methodes utilisees dans les sondages influencent peu la fagon habituelle dont les medias traitent des sondages.
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Opinion polling occupies a significant role within the political process of most liberal‐capitalist societies, where it is used by governments, parties and the mass media alike. To some extent polls are used for the same purposes in the post‐communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, and in particular, for bringing political elites and citizens together. In practice, these political elites are more concerned with using opinion polls for gaining competitive advantage over their rivals, and for reaffirming their political power, than for devolving political power to citizens and improving the general processes of democratization.
Media Poll-itics in Canadian Elections: A Report on Accelerated Public Opinion
Cultural Politics: an International Journal, 2007
Abstract: This essay develops a technocultural studies approach to political elections and polling. First, I shift our attention from polling as a cultural form to developments in polling technology that are transfiguring this form. I then examine the production and circulation of ...
Public opinion polls and experts in election news
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By employing the theoretical framework of framing, the present paper attempts to examine the Icelandic media's coverage of the 2013 parliamentary election by paying particular attention to coverage of public opinion polls and the policies of the political parties, i.e. the " horse-race " frame and the issue frame, and to examine media's reliance on experts for interpretation of election news. Seven online news media, two newspapers, two radio stations and two television channels were monitored for 25 days prior to Election Day, i.e. from April 2 to April 26, 2013,-resulting in 1377 election news stories. The findings show, for example, that 29.8% of all the election news stories had public opinion polls as their primary angle while 12% of the stories were primarily issue-oriented. In addition, the media rely on experts for interpretation of the polls; five of the 10 most interviewed or quoted sources on public opinion surveys were political science experts who were affiliated with universities. Finally, news coverage of polls was generally amplified as media outlets had a tendency to report on public opinion polls that were commissioned by other media.
Election Polls and the Manufactured Public Opinion
Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia are the leading polling organizations in the country that present alleged " public opinion " on urgent issues and people's current preferences for candidates in the upcoming Philippine Elections 2016. To support the claim that these polls represent the opinion of the people, the pollsters conduct face-to-face and mobile surveys with thousands of Filipinos from Metro Manila, Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. However, the accuracy of the results is questioned based on how these firms formulate the questions asked of the respondents; how much time is given for the respondent to express his opinion; and how these surveys are funded. Election polls indeed have the tendency to undermine democracy. Aside from the manipulation of the public's opinions on the given questions by the pollsters, the series of polls conducted months before the election shape the minds of the electorate. The frontrunners in the polls will gain popularity; hence they have more chances of being voted for. The freedom to decide on who to vote for is swayed by the poll results labeled as the vote of the nation.
International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 2002
Previous studies have focused on either media coverage of polls or on their effects. This study investigated the visibility and quality of news reporting of opinion polls and the public evaluations of polls in the context of the Danish referendum on the introduction of the euro. A content analysis of the news coverage showed that more than one-third of all news in the campaign referred to polls and that newspapers were significantly better than television news in providing methodological information about the polls. Focus group interviews revealed that voters were dissatisfied with too many polls in the news and concerned about the possible influences of polls. Panel survey data substantiated this finding suggesting a broadly shared perception that the referendum campaign was dominated by polls. Voters who were frequently exposed to news about the referendum showed an increase in dissatisfaction with the dominance of polls during the campaign. Those who supported a more restrictive policy on the publication of polls in future campaigns included elderly voters, people dissatisfied with the campaign, and people who had cast their vote for the losing side. Results are discussed in the light of policy recommendations for the reporting of polls in campaigns. The centrality of public opinion polls in politics today is well established (e.g., Herbst , Lavrakas and Holley , Lavrakas and Traugott , Mancini ). Previous studies have either focused on the quantity and quality of news reports about opinion polls during national elections (e.g., Andersen , Brettschneider , Smith and Verall ) or the effects of opinion polls and exit polls during national and state level elections (e.g., Atkin , Ceci and World Association for Public Opinion Research 1 While pre-election polls and exit polls are mentioned together, the distinction between the two is acknowledged and is also applied in the investigation of public support for policies concerning the publication of polls. Pre-election polls are typically based on (representative sample) surveys prior to election day and they typically measure turnout intention, vote preference, party leader preferences, policy issue support, etc. Exit polls are (representative) surveys that measure actual voting behavior of voters after they have cast their votes. The organization and methodology of exit polling is different from pre-election polls and are discussed elsewhere (Hofrichter ).
Problems and Perspectives of Mass Opinion Polls
The Bulletin of Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University. Series:Philosophy, philosophy of law, political science, sociology
In the twenty-first century, there is a significant crisis in electoral procedures, which is manifested in a decline in confidence in them. It coincided with a crisis in the survey technology of public opinion research, which is manifested in a decrease in efficiency, an increase in the number of refusals, a systematic error of representativeness and dependence of results on the wording of questions. The first crisis plays into the hands of populist strategies, as those who refused to participate in the survey are not included in the sample, and the second crisis requires the development of new ways to extract and process information about individual behavior, such as the analysis of algorithms, statistics of Internet sites, and big data analysis. The purpose of this article is to answer the question of what the prospects for the development of public opinion may be in light of the growing problems of representativeness.