The differential futures of ski tourism in Ontario (Canada) under climate change: the limits of snowmaking adaptation (original) (raw)
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The impact of climate change analogue conditions on ski operations is broader than reported in previous studies. Ski operations under anomalously warm temperatures are not binary, but a continuum of partial capacity. Differential vulnerabilities are recorded by ski resort size (i.e., small, intermediate and large resorts) and month. Ski demand is less sensitive to record warm conditions than supply-side operations. a b s t r a c t To accurately characterize the ski industry's risk to future climate change and varied quality of snow conditions, it is important to assess how the industry has managed and adapted to contemporary anomalously warm ski seasons. This is the first temporal climate change analogue study to use higher resolution daily performance data at the individual ski area scale, including reported snow quality, ski lift operations, slope openings, and water usage for snowmaking. The record warm winter of 2011e2012 in the Ontario ski tourism market (Eastern Canada) is representative of projected future average winter conditions under a mid-century, high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), which was compared to the 2010e2011 season which was climatically normal (for the 1981e2010 period). Supply-side impacts across the 17 ski areas during the analogue winter included a total average decrease in the ski season length (À17% days), operating ski lifts (À3%), skiable terrain (À9%), reduced snow quality (e.g.,-46% days with packed powder), snowmaking days (À18%), and an increase in water usage for snowmaking (e.g., þ300% in December). Demand-side impacts include a 10% decrease in overall skier visits, with a resort size-correlation (small À20%, intermediate À14%, large À8%). With reduced operational ski terrain and more frequent marginal snow conditions, visitor experience is adversely affected more frequently. Collectively, these findings identify differential impacts in the ski tourism market and can assist ski area managers, communities, investors and governments with developing climate change adaptation plans.
Sustainability
Climate change is an evolving business reality influencing the sustainability of ski tourism worldwide. A new integrated model of the co-evolution of supply (27 ski areas) and demand-side (skier behaviour) climate change adaptation in the ski tourism market of Ontario, Canada is presented. Ski area operations are modeled under a high-emission 2050s scenario, with skier responses to altered operations informed by a survey of 2429 skiers. These market adaptive dynamics reveal new insights into differential climate risk, capturing patterns not apparent when considering only operational conditions of ski resorts. A decoupling of ski season length and skier visitation was found at four ski areas, where, despite average season length losses, visitation increased as a result of reduced competition. Simulated skier visit losses were smaller than reductions in season length, contributing to an increase in crowding. Growing the market of skiers was also identified as a critical adaptation str...
Climate change and the sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: A reassessment
… of Sustainable Tourism, 2006
The sustainability of skiing tourism has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to global climate change. Earlier research, however, did not fully consider snowmaking as an adaptation strategy, which is integral to the ski industry in eastern North America. This study examines how it reduces the vulnerability of ski areas to climate change in six study areas by developing a model to assess the impact of climate change on season length, probability of operations during critical tourism periods, snowmaking costs, and water requirements. It suggests that in the 2020s, even the warmest climate change scenario poses only a minor risk to four of the six ski areas. The reassessment for the 2050s period found that only the warmest scenario would jeopardise the sustainability of three of the ski areas examined. The confluence of climatic changes and other nonclimate business factors will advantage certain ski areas and likely result in further contraction and consolidation in this regional ski market.
Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the northeastern USA
Climate Research, 2009
Detrimental impacts of climate change on the international ski tourism industry have been projected in numerous studies. Modeling-based studies project shortened ski seasons and increased snowmaking requirements under warmer temperatures. The present study uses a climate change analogue approach to examine how a wider range of ski area performance indicators were affected by anomalously warm winters in the Northeast region of the USA. The record warm winter of 2001-2002 is representative of projected future average winter climate conditions in the USA Northeast under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario for the 2040-2069 period and was used as one climate change analogue for this analysis. The 1998-1999 ski season was also used as a climate change analogue as it represents the last of 3 consecutive warm winters (1997 to 1999) that are representative of a mid-range emissions scenario projected for the 2040-2069 period. Ski area performance indicators for the 2001-2002 and 1998-1999 analogue years were compared to the climatically normal (based on 1961-1990 means) years of 2000-2001 and 2004-2005. The indicators examined include: ski season length, snowmaking (hours of operation and % energy utilized as a proxy for fuel costs), total skier visits and operating profit (% of total gross fixed assets). The effect of ski season length during the climate change analogue years is compared with modeled effects for the region. The differential vulnerability of small, medium, large and extra-large ski areas was also examined and the greatest economic effects were found among small and extra large ski areas.
A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism
Current Issues in Tourism, 2017
Ski tourism is a multi-billion dollar international market attracting between 300 and 350 million annual skier visits. With its strong reliance on specific climatic conditions, the ski industry is regarded as the tourism market most directly and immediately affected by climate change. A critical review of the 119 publications that have examined the climate change risk of ski tourism in 27 countries is provided. This growing and increasingly diverse literature has projected decreased reliability of slopes dependent on natural snow, increased snowmaking requirements, shortened and more variable ski seasons, a contraction in the number of operating ski areas, altered competitiveness among and within regional ski markets, and attendant implications for ski tourism employment and values of vacation property real estate values. The extent and timing of these consequences depend on the rate of climate change and the types of adaptive responses by skiers as well as ski tourism destinations and their competitors. The need to understanding differential climate risk grows as investors and financial regulators increasingly require climate risk disclosure at the destination and company scale. Key knowledge gaps to better assist ski tourism destinations to adapt to future climate risk are identified.
Impacts of climate change on ski industry
2014
Ski industry has become one of the main economic activity for many mountain regions worldwide. However, the economic viability of this activity is highly dependent of the interannual variability of the snow and climatic conditions, and it is jeopardized by climate warming. In this study we reviewed the main scientific literature on the relationship between climate change and the ski feasibility under different climate change scenarios. In spite of the different methodologies and climate change scenarios used in the reviewed studies, their findings generally point to a significant impact of climate change on ski industry caused by a reduction in the natural availability of snow as well as a contraction in the duration of seasonal conditions suitable for ski. It emphasizes that the problem is real and should not be ignored in the study and management of tourism in mountain regions. However, there were significant differences in the impacts between different areas. This differences are mainly associated to the elevation of the ski resorts, their infrastructures for snowmaking and the various climate models, emission scenarios, time horizons and scales of analysis used. This review highlights the necessity from scientist to harmonize indicators and methodology thus allowing a better comparison of the results from different studies and increase the clarity of the conclusions transmitted to land managers and policy makers. Moreover, a better integration of the uncertainty in the model´s outputs, as well as the treatment applied to the snowpack in ski slopes is necessary to provide more accurate indications on how this sector will respond to climate change.
Climatic Change, 2013
In this paper we assess the impact of climate change, at a micro-scale for a selection of four sites in New Zealand and Australia. These sites are representative of the key destination ski regions. In contrast to previous work, our work will for the first time, allow for a direct comparison between these two countries and enable both an estimate of the absolute impacts at a given site, as well as the relative impacts between the two countries. This direct comparison is possible because we have used exactly the same snow model, the same 3 global climate models (GCMs) and the same techniques to calibrate the model for all locations. We consider the changes in natural snow at these locations for the 2030-2049 and 2080-2099 time periods, for one mid-range emissions scenario (A1B). This future scenario is compared to simulations of current, 1980-1999, snow at these locations. We did not consider the snowmaking or economic components of the ski industry vulnerability, only the modelled changes in the natural snow component. At our New Zealand sites, our model indicates that by the 2040s there will be on average between 90 % and 102 % of the current maximum snow depth (on 31 August) and by the 2090s this will be on average reduced to between 46 % and 74 %. In Australia, our models estimates that by the 2040s there will be on average between 57 % and 78 % of the current maximum snow depth and by the 2090s this will be on average further reduced to between 21 % and 29 %. In Climatic Change terms of days with snowdepths equal to or exceeding a ski industry useable levels of 0.30 m, at our lowest elevation, and most sensitive sites, we observe a change from 125 days (current) to 99-126 (2040s) and 52-110 (2090s) in New Zealand. In Australia, a reduction from 94 to 155 days (current) to 81-114 (2040s) and 0-75 (2090s) is observed. In each case the changes are highly depended on the GCM used to drive the climate change scenario. While the absolute changes will have direct impacts at each location, so too will the relative changes with respect to future potential Australia-New Zealand tourism flows, and beyond. Our study provides an approach by which other regions or countries with climate sensitive tourism enterprises could assess the relative impacts and therefore the potential wider ranging ramifications with respect to destination attractiveness.
Ski tourism is a multi-billion dollar international market attracting between 300 and 350 million annual skier visits. With its strong reliance on specific climatic conditions, the ski industry is regarded as the tourism market most directly and immediately affected by climate change. A critical review of the 119 publications that have examined the climate change risk of ski tourism in 27 countries is provided. This growing and increasingly diverse literature has projected decreased reliability of slopes dependent on natural snow, increased snowmaking requirements, shortened and more variable ski seasons, a contraction in the number of operating ski areas, altered competitiveness among and within regional ski markets, and attendant implications for ski tourism employment and values of vacation property real estate values. The extent and timing of these consequences depend on the rate of climate change and the types of adaptive responses by skiers as well as ski tourism destinations and their competitors. The need to understanding differential climate risk grows as investors and financial regulators increasingly require climate risk disclosure at the destination and company scale. Key knowledge gaps to better assist ski tourism destinations to adapt to future climate risk are identified.