Climate Change and Ski Tourism Sustainability: An Integrated Model of the Adaptive Dynamics between Ski Area Operations and Skier Demand (original) (raw)
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The international ski tourism industry is highly vulnerable to inter-annual climate variability and climate change. Accordingly, there is a strong need to advance our understanding of climate risk for this multi-billion tourism market that is so important to mountain regions around the world. This study addressed major limitations in the ski tourism literature, while concurrently supporting priority information needs of ski tourism stakeholders. An improved version of SkiSim 2.0 is applied to all 34 alpine ski areas in southern Ontario (Canada) to examine potential changes in the capacity of this regional marketplace. Model improvements include differential snowmaking capacities of individual ski areas, updated snowmaking decision rules, as well as a new indicator, termed 'terrain-days', to estimate changes in system capacity. The results project two fundamentally different futures for this ski tourism marketplace under climate change. If the international community succeeds in achieving the + 2°C Paris Agreement policy goal, then losses in system capacity can be limited to less than 10% in the mid-and late-century. In contrast, a high-end emission scenario (RCP 8.5) would severely disrupt this ski tourism market by mid-century, with system capacity losses between 28% and 73%.
The impact of climate change analogue conditions on ski operations is broader than reported in previous studies. Ski operations under anomalously warm temperatures are not binary, but a continuum of partial capacity. Differential vulnerabilities are recorded by ski resort size (i.e., small, intermediate and large resorts) and month. Ski demand is less sensitive to record warm conditions than supply-side operations. a b s t r a c t To accurately characterize the ski industry's risk to future climate change and varied quality of snow conditions, it is important to assess how the industry has managed and adapted to contemporary anomalously warm ski seasons. This is the first temporal climate change analogue study to use higher resolution daily performance data at the individual ski area scale, including reported snow quality, ski lift operations, slope openings, and water usage for snowmaking. The record warm winter of 2011e2012 in the Ontario ski tourism market (Eastern Canada) is representative of projected future average winter conditions under a mid-century, high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), which was compared to the 2010e2011 season which was climatically normal (for the 1981e2010 period). Supply-side impacts across the 17 ski areas during the analogue winter included a total average decrease in the ski season length (À17% days), operating ski lifts (À3%), skiable terrain (À9%), reduced snow quality (e.g.,-46% days with packed powder), snowmaking days (À18%), and an increase in water usage for snowmaking (e.g., þ300% in December). Demand-side impacts include a 10% decrease in overall skier visits, with a resort size-correlation (small À20%, intermediate À14%, large À8%). With reduced operational ski terrain and more frequent marginal snow conditions, visitor experience is adversely affected more frequently. Collectively, these findings identify differential impacts in the ski tourism market and can assist ski area managers, communities, investors and governments with developing climate change adaptation plans.
Climate change and the sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: A reassessment
… of Sustainable Tourism, 2006
The sustainability of skiing tourism has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to global climate change. Earlier research, however, did not fully consider snowmaking as an adaptation strategy, which is integral to the ski industry in eastern North America. This study examines how it reduces the vulnerability of ski areas to climate change in six study areas by developing a model to assess the impact of climate change on season length, probability of operations during critical tourism periods, snowmaking costs, and water requirements. It suggests that in the 2020s, even the warmest climate change scenario poses only a minor risk to four of the six ski areas. The reassessment for the 2050s period found that only the warmest scenario would jeopardise the sustainability of three of the ski areas examined. The confluence of climatic changes and other nonclimate business factors will advantage certain ski areas and likely result in further contraction and consolidation in this regional ski market.
A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism
Current Issues in Tourism, 2017
Ski tourism is a multi-billion dollar international market attracting between 300 and 350 million annual skier visits. With its strong reliance on specific climatic conditions, the ski industry is regarded as the tourism market most directly and immediately affected by climate change. A critical review of the 119 publications that have examined the climate change risk of ski tourism in 27 countries is provided. This growing and increasingly diverse literature has projected decreased reliability of slopes dependent on natural snow, increased snowmaking requirements, shortened and more variable ski seasons, a contraction in the number of operating ski areas, altered competitiveness among and within regional ski markets, and attendant implications for ski tourism employment and values of vacation property real estate values. The extent and timing of these consequences depend on the rate of climate change and the types of adaptive responses by skiers as well as ski tourism destinations and their competitors. The need to understanding differential climate risk grows as investors and financial regulators increasingly require climate risk disclosure at the destination and company scale. Key knowledge gaps to better assist ski tourism destinations to adapt to future climate risk are identified.
Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the northeastern USA
Climate Research, 2009
Detrimental impacts of climate change on the international ski tourism industry have been projected in numerous studies. Modeling-based studies project shortened ski seasons and increased snowmaking requirements under warmer temperatures. The present study uses a climate change analogue approach to examine how a wider range of ski area performance indicators were affected by anomalously warm winters in the Northeast region of the USA. The record warm winter of 2001-2002 is representative of projected future average winter climate conditions in the USA Northeast under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario for the 2040-2069 period and was used as one climate change analogue for this analysis. The 1998-1999 ski season was also used as a climate change analogue as it represents the last of 3 consecutive warm winters (1997 to 1999) that are representative of a mid-range emissions scenario projected for the 2040-2069 period. Ski area performance indicators for the 2001-2002 and 1998-1999 analogue years were compared to the climatically normal (based on 1961-1990 means) years of 2000-2001 and 2004-2005. The indicators examined include: ski season length, snowmaking (hours of operation and % energy utilized as a proxy for fuel costs), total skier visits and operating profit (% of total gross fixed assets). The effect of ski season length during the climate change analogue years is compared with modeled effects for the region. The differential vulnerability of small, medium, large and extra-large ski areas was also examined and the greatest economic effects were found among small and extra large ski areas.
Climate change adaptation in the ski industry
2007
Abstract Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (eg, agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry.
Ski tourism is a multi-billion dollar international market attracting between 300 and 350 million annual skier visits. With its strong reliance on specific climatic conditions, the ski industry is regarded as the tourism market most directly and immediately affected by climate change. A critical review of the 119 publications that have examined the climate change risk of ski tourism in 27 countries is provided. This growing and increasingly diverse literature has projected decreased reliability of slopes dependent on natural snow, increased snowmaking requirements, shortened and more variable ski seasons, a contraction in the number of operating ski areas, altered competitiveness among and within regional ski markets, and attendant implications for ski tourism employment and values of vacation property real estate values. The extent and timing of these consequences depend on the rate of climate change and the types of adaptive responses by skiers as well as ski tourism destinations and their competitors. The need to understanding differential climate risk grows as investors and financial regulators increasingly require climate risk disclosure at the destination and company scale. Key knowledge gaps to better assist ski tourism destinations to adapt to future climate risk are identified.
Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2011
Tourism in ski resorts depends on snow cover which is expected to decline with climate change. This paper explores hypotheses about demand side responses to climatic change by analyzing patterns of visitation in recent years with differing snow cover. Snow cover and visitation patterns to six resorts which differ in altitude and size in Victoria, Australia were compared between a slightly warm and much drier year (2006, +0.6 o C and -50% precipitation to longer term averages) to a more typical year (2007) and to nine earlier years. Snow making partly offset declines in natural snow cover in 2006 although there were still fewer days with snow on the ground. The number of visitor days was much lower in 2006 than the previous nine years for the three lowest altitude resorts (-69%), while it actually increased (+10%) in the highest altitude resort where there were fewer visitors (-17%), but they stayed longer. Snow making is already critical for ski resorts in low snow years. With warmer conditions, lower altitude resorts may not receive enough income due to reduced visitation to offset snow making costs, while higher altitude resorts may have a short term gain, but become uneconomical in the longer term.
2014
One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations among various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution amongst ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agentbased model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.