The phosphorus mass balance: identifying ‘hotspots’ in the food system as a roadmap to phosphorus security (original) (raw)

Tracking phosphorus security: indicators of phosphorus vulnerability in the global food system

Food Security, 2015

Phosphorus underpins global food systems by ensuring soil fertility, farmer livelihoods, agricultural productivity and global food security. Yet there is a lack of research and effective governance at global or national scales designed to ensure the future availability and accessibility of this global resource. The world's main source of phosphorus, phosphate rock, is a finite resource that is becoming increasingly scarce, expensive and subject to geopolitical tensions as one country, Morocco, controls three-quarters of the world's remaining high-grade reserves. Given the criticality of phosphorus and the vulnerability of the world's food systems to phosphorus scarcity, there is a strong need to stimulate appropriate sustainable phosphorus practices and technologies, and simultaneously, to initiate effective international governance mechanisms, including policy/research coordination and accountability. Sustainability indicators are increasingly being used as tools to facilitate accountability, implementation, evaluation and communication for global sustainability challenges. This paper presents the first comprehensive set of phosphorus vulnerability and security indicators at global and national scales. Global indicators include: phosphate price, market concentration and supply risk, relative physical phosphorus scarcity and eutrophication potential. National indicators include: farmer phosphorus vulnerability, national phosphorus vulnerability, national phosphorus equity and soil phosphorus legacy. Monitoring and tracking such indicators at the national and global levels can ultimately provide evidence of key phosphorus vulnerabilities or 'hotspots' in the food system, support effective phosphorus governance to stimulate targeted and effective action, raise awareness of this food security challenge, and evaluate the effectiveness and performance of global or national sustainable phosphorus projects.

Peak Phosphorus: Clarifying the Key Issues of a Vigorous Debate about Long-Term Phosphorus Security

Sustainability, 2011

This paper reviews the latest information and perspectives on global phosphorus scarcity. Phosphorus is essential for food production and modern agriculture currently sources phosphorus fertilizers from finite phosphate rock. The 2008 food and phosphate fertilizer price spikes triggered increased concerns regarding the depletion timeline of phosphate rock reserves. While estimates range from 30 to 300 years and are shrouded by lack of publicly available data and substantial uncertainty, there is a general consensus that the quality and accessibility of remaining reserves are decreasing and costs will increase. This paper clarifies common sources of misunderstandings about phosphorus scarcity and identifies areas of consensus. It then asks, despite some persistent uncertainty, what would it take to achieve global phosphorus security? What would a 'hard-landing' response look like and how could preferred 'soft-landing' responses be achieved?

Sustainable Phosphorus Measures: Strategies and Technologies for Achieving Phosphorus Security

Agronomy, 2013

Phosphorus underpins the world's food systems by ensuring soil fertility, maximising crop yields, supporting farmer livelihoods and ultimately food security. Yet increasing concerns around long-term availability and accessibility of the world's main source of phosphorus-phosphate rock, means there is a need to investigate sustainable measures to buffer the world's food systems against the long and short-term impacts of global phosphorus scarcity. While the timeline of phosphorus scarcity is contested, there is consensus that more efficient use and recycling of phosphorus is required. While the agricultural sector will be crucial in achieving this, sustainable phosphorus measures in sectors upstream and downstream of agriculture from mine to fork will also need to be addressed. This paper presents a comprehensive classification of all potential phosphorus supply-and demand-side measures to meet long-term phosphorus needs for food production. Examples range from increasing efficiency in the agricultural and mining sector, to technologies for recovering phosphorus from urine and food waste. Such measures are often undertaken in isolation from one another rather than linked in an integrated strategy. This integrated approach will enable scientists and policy-makers to take a systematic approach when identifying potential sustainable phosphorus measures. If a systematic approach is not taken, there is a risk of inappropriate investment in research and implementation of technologies and that will not ultimately ensure sufficient access to phosphorus to produce food in the future. The paper concludes by introducing a framework to assess and compare sustainable phosphorus measures and to determine the least cost options in a given context.

Peak phosphorus: Implications for agricultural production, the environment and development

Research Papers in Economics, 2010

Phosphorus is a key element in food production, but is a non-renewable resource. Recent estimates suggest that global production of P fertilizers will peak in 2033 and will be one third of that peak level by the end of the 21st century. Population and income growth will increase demand for food, and especially animal protein, the production of which will accelerate the rundown in P reserves and the consequential rise in fertilizer prices. The global distribution of current P fertilizer use divides countries into the ‘haves’ which in many cases face severe pollution problems from excess P, and the ‘have-nots’ in which low input use annually drains soil P reserves. Coping strategies include improvements in the efficiency of fertilizer P manufacture and use, and the recycling of P in liquid and solid wastes. The latter approach offers win-win solutions by reducing the environmental pollution of water in highly populated areas. Future utilisation of scarce P reserves requires policy dec...

Peak phosphorus: implications for agriculture

Phosphorus (P) is as essential to agriculture as it is to life. Contrary to predictions of ‘peak P’ and a looming crisis in P supply, recent studies show that rock phosphate (RP) reserves will last for centuries. Mine production capacity is approaching the long-term demand for P, which is expected to plateau mid-century and then decline as global population stabilises and the demand for P in developing countries declines, as it has in many developed countries in recent decades. Nevertheless, there is no room for complacency about RP supply, as major reserves are held by only a few countries and there are significant geopolitical and trade issues to be managed if all farmers are to have equitable access to P-fertilizer. Despite plentiful reserves, careful stewardship is needed to ensure P supplies into the distant future. Global P budgets identify possible areas for reducing consumption, but the potential for on-farm actions to reduce long-term use of RP-based fertiliser are limited,...

Feed the crop not the soil: rethinking phosphorus management in the food chain

Environmental science & technology, 2014

Society relies heavily on inorganic phosphorus (P) compounds throughout its food chain. This dependency is not only very inefficient and increasingly costly but is depleting finite global reserves of rock phosphate. It has also left a legacy of P accumulation in soils, sediments and wastes that is leaking into our surface waters and contributing to widespread eutrophication. We argue for a new, more precise but more challenging paradigm in P fertilizer management that seeks to develop more sustainable food chains that maintain P availability to crops and livestock but with reduced amounts of imported mineral P and improved soil function. This new strategy requires greater public awareness of the environmental consequences of dietary choice, better understanding of soil-plant-animal P dynamics, increased recovery of both used P and unutilized legacy soil P, and new innovative technologies to improve fertilizer P recovery. In combination, they are expected to deliver significant econo...

Phosphorus as a Bottleneck for a Sustainable Food Suply

Contemporary Agriculture, 2018

Summary Phosphorus is an essential nutrient for all forms of life, which means that food cannot be produced without it. As the phosphate rock (concentrated source of phosphorus) is a non-renewable and finite resource, with no substitute, without more sustainable management of phosphorus its deposits could be depleted in a rather short period. In addition, much of phosphorus eventually ends up in environment, where it causes pollution. Hence, one could say that the lack of phosphorus and its inappropriate management could be a bottleneck for a sustainable food supply and agricultural development in general. Nevertheless, unlike some other challenges that modern agriculture has to face (for example, water and energy scarcity, climate changes etc) the problem of phosphorus limited availability and accessibility has been largely neglected until recently. This paper’s particular intention is to explain why phosphorus management is one of key issues for the sustainable food supply and agr...

Peak phosphorus–Implications for soil productivity and global food security

Phosphorus is a key element in food production, but is a non-renewable resource. Recent estimates suggest that global production of P fertilizers will peak in 2033 and will be one third of that peak level by the end of the 21 st century. Population and income growth will increase demand for food, and especially animal protein, the production of which will accelerate the reduced availability of P and consequential rising fertilizer prices. The global distribution of current P fertilizer use divides countries into the 'haves' which in many cases face severe pollution problems from excess P, and the 'have-nots' in which low input use annually drains soil P reserves. Coping strategies include improvements in the efficiency of fertilizer P manufacture and use, and recycling of P in liquid and solid wastes. The latter approach offers win-win solutions by reducing the environmental pollution of water in highly populated areas. Future utilisation of scarce P reserves requires policy decisions that take account of equity, productivity, environmental and trade considerations.

Phosphorus management in Europe in a changing world

Ambio, 2015

Food production in Europe is dependent on imported phosphorus (P) fertilizers, but P use is inefficient and losses to the environment high. Here, we discuss possible solutions by changes in P management. We argue that not only the use of P fertilizers and P additives in feed could be reduced by fine-tuning fertilization and feeding to actual nutrient requirements, but also P from waste has to be completely recovered and recycled in order to close the P balance of Europe regionally and become less dependent on the availability of P-rock reserves. Finally, climate-smart P management measures are needed, to reduce the expected deterioration of surface water quality resulting from climate-change-induced P loss.