US-China Rivalry and the Philippines’ National Security Strategy (original) (raw)

Sino-American Competition in the Philippines: Issues and Insights

Modern Diplomacy, 2024

Recent developments in the Philippines have placed the country in the middle of a Sino-American great power rivalry. In June 2024, tensions flared between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea (SCS) when pictures came out of the Chinese Coast Guard threatening Filipino crew with knives and spears near the Second Thomas Shoal. These actions, together with the latest assertiveness of China in the region have led to concerns towards the possibility of armed conflict. Meanwhile, the Philippines has been enhancing its defense partnership with the US, deepening scopes for military usage and staging joint drills.

Evolving Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle: International and Domestic Drivers

The triangular relations among three states-the Philippines, the United States, and the People's Republic of China-are governed by structural balance of power factors, "pragmatic opportunism" on the part of the superpowers, and the threat and opportunity perceptions of individual Philippine administrations. Recent years have seen Manila dramatically oscillating between the extremes of engagement and deterrence toward China, and dependence on, and independence from, the United States. In particular, while the Benigno Aquino III administration (2010-2016) adopted soft counterbalancing against China and heavily relied on American military support, the succeeding Rodrigo Duterte administration, in contrast, distanced itself from America in favor of deeper engagement with China. The seemingly erratic swings in the pendulum of Manila's foreign policy is a telltale sign of the dilemma of small power politics as well as the tempestuous nature of Philippine domestic politics.

Between the United States and China: Philippines foreign policy in the case of South China Sea

2021

In 2016 there were several events that could change the Philippines' foreign policy in Southeast Asia. The tensions in the South China Sea were growing since several parties claimed the sea, and there were new presidents elected in the Philippines and the United States. This thesis focuses on the Philippines' strategy in this complicated geopolitical situation between the two great powers, the United States of America and China. The aim of this thesis was to identify how the Philippines respond to the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region after 2016 in the case of the South China Sea and which strategy they are using in their actions. The author explains the situation in the region, defines a small state, and then discusses the potential strategies a small state has in the case. The author set a hypothesis that the Philippines mainly use a hedging strategy to respond to the region's geopolitical dynamics. To test the hypothesis, the author conducted content analys...

The Role of Threat in the Dynamics of the Philippine-United States Alliance

Threat serves as an impetus in the foundation, development, revitalization, and waning of the contemporary Philippine-United States alliance. Using Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory as the analytical framework, this study proves that, historically, the dynamics of the Philippine-U.S. alliance revolves around the interaction of threatcentric issues and the member-state’s response. Threat serves as the prime mover of the alliance; foreign aid, ideological solidarity, and institutional penetration do not guarantee the alliance stability. They do, however, serve as critical factors in the alliance management. Shared or unshared existential threats with external overtones have a greater impact on the alliance. Moreover, internal security threats affect alliance efficiency. A coordinated approach is needed to confront and master them. The Philippine Communist Insurgency of the CPP-NPA-NDF, the South China Sea Dispute with China, the ambiguity of 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty provisions including its executory mechanisms, and U.S. “strategic ambivalence” in the case of conflict serve as disconnecting factors of the Philippine-U.S. alliance. These factors created and continue to create friction between the Philippines and the United States. This study recommends that the allies must align their threat assessments, resolve or manage disconnecting threats, and then address the ambiguity of the agreement through further research and deeper strategic discourse.

The entrapment of asymmetry: the Philippines between the US and China

Bandung: Journal of the Global South, 2015

This paper aims to analyze the asymmetric dilemma facing the Philippines and China in the South China Sea tensions. Among American East Asian allies, the Philippines seems to stand on the frontline between two rival powers, the United States and China. Since the US declared its Pivot to Asia policy, the Philippines’ foreign policy towards China has become assertive and sometimes appears reckless with some military adventures against Chinese maritime patrols and naval ships, which also further forced China to take a tougher foreign policy against the Philippines. Considering the distinctive asymmetric indicators between China and the Philippines based on military forces, economic capacity, territorial size, and population, the aggressive policy behaviors that the Philippines and China have been displaying against each other cast an inquiry on what drives the two countries into head-to-head collision. While China as the larger power vis-à-vis the Philippines as the smaller power in th...