The situation in Libya (original) (raw)

The Libya Conflict and its Implications for the Broader Region

2020

Libya is fractured. Its civil war is a complex conflict fought out between myriad smaller militias loosely integrated into two main factions. Khalifa Haftar’s siege of Tripoli and its UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has at the time of writing gone on for almost a year. After some major gains for Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA), the siege has been stuck in a stalemate with frontlines running along the southern suburbs of the capital. Each side is backed by various regional and extra-regional powers, and the ensuing military stalemate has taken precedence over the democratic transition that many were hoping for after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The civil war was born out of the power vacuum that followed Gaddafi’s removal. This report looks at the evolution of the Libyan conflict since 2011 and maps out the various domestic and external – both state and non-state – interests that clash directly or indirectly in Libya. Moreover, it analyses the various security implications that the conflict has for the country itself and the broader region more generally. Lastly, the report comments on the prospects of the conflict and the peace process pursued by the United Nations and other international actors.

Trends and Dynamics of the Libya Conflict WalnshakDanfulani

The conflict in Libya manifests complex dynamics involving personal, group and international interests in a decade long struggle for power and its accruing benefits. Militia, terror and shadow groups are involved in moves and counter moves, flexible alliances and counter alliances based on interests that intricately maneuver fault-lines in the clash and dialogue of civilizations. This study looks at the trends and dynamics of the Libyan conflict; parties involved; the justification behind their actions. The study has recommended the complete withdrawal of shadow parties in the crisis to lessen the complexities involved in solving the crisis, implementation of proper Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration and power sharing under a federal structure. ABSTRACT Libya'daki çatışma, iktidar ve onun tahakkuk eden faydaları için on yıllık uzun bir mücadelede kişisel, grupsal ve uluslararası çıkarları içeren karmaşık dinamikleri ortaya koyuyor. Milisler, terör ve gölge grupları, medeniyetlerin çatışması ve diyalogundaki fay hatlarını karmaşık bir şekilde manevra eden çıkarlara dayalı hareketler ve karşı hamleler, esnek ittifaklar ve karşı ittifaklara dahil olurlar. Bu çalışma, Libya çatışmasının eğilimlerine ve dinamiklerine bakıyor; ilgili taraflar; eylemlerinin arkasındaki gerekçe. Çalışma, krizin çözülmesine, uygun Demobilizasyon, Silahsızlanma ve Yeniden Entegrasyonun uygulanmasına ve federal bir yapı altında güç paylaşımına ilişkin karmaşıklıkların azaltılması için krizdeki gölge partilerin tamamen geri çekilmesini tavsiye etti.

Libya - Internal fragmentation and the dragging dialogue_July 2017

In 2017 Libya found itself at the centre of great attention within European governments. A plethora of issues have plagued the country: the civil war has flared up again in parts of the country; the UN-negotiated Government of National Accord is still far from being acknowledged; and the divisions between the power blocs in the east and west have widened, especially due to the fighting in the centre and south of Libya. Furthermore, nearly 90% of all migrants have reached Europe through the central Mediterranean route in the first six months of this year.

Libya: The strategy that wasn’t. CEPS Commentary, 6 April 2017

2017

As a failed state in the European Union’s immediate neighbourhood that serves as a base camp for terrorists and a conduit for irregular migration to Europe, Libya is precisely the kind of place for which the EU’s foreign policy instruments were designed, or so one might think. Since the NATO intervention that helped oust Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the EU has deployed most of its crisis response approaches and instruments in the country, including new procedures set out in the 2013 review of the European External Action Service (EEAS), most notably a Political Framework for a Crisis Approach (PFCA).

Libya Regional Non-Military Perspectives on Recent Developments in Libya

Popular protests against the authoritarian rule of Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi in Libya in February 2011 resulted in violent armed conflict between Gaddafi’s forces and rebel fighters. In March 2011, NATO implemented a no-fly zone to enforce UN Resolution 1973, which condemned the ‘systematic violation of human rights’ by the Libyan authorities under Gaddafi and authorized member states to ‘take all necessary measures’ to protect civilians and civilian populated areas. By October the same year, Libya’s interim authorities declared the country’s official liberation from Gaddafi’s rule. (Access full report here) General elections took place in July 2012, and Libya experienced a period of relative stability and growth. However, throughout 2013 and 2014, tensions grew between different political and militia factions. This resulted in the emergence of two distinct blocs. One bloc, comprised mainly of Islamist factions, sought the removal of Gaddafi-era officials from positions of power. The other bloc opposed Islamist groups and believed former regime figures could continue to play a role in Libya. A second general election took place in June 2014; however, the Islamist political factions fared poorly. In response to the political defeat, Islamist-aligned militias took control of Tripoli by force, reinstated the previous government, and declared the 2014 elections unconstitutional. The newly-elected parliament fled to eastern Libya where they continued to meet. The result was two separate sets of governing institutions – one in eastern Libya and the Islamist-backed government in Tripoli – covering different parts of the country and with competing claims to legitimacy. This fragmentation of Libya’s social and political fabric led to instability, violence and confusion, particularly in the capital of Tripoli. As conflict escalated in 2014, many foreign embassies and international organisations relocated across the border to Tunisia. International support also shifted from high-level, governance-related programming to peace building assistance and humanitarian aid. Throughout 2015, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) attempted to bring rival factions together to agree on a unity government. On 17 December 2015, partly as a result of UNSMIL’s efforts, Libyan representatives signed the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) in Morocco, creating the Government of National Accord (GNA) that took power in Tripoli in March 2016. However, conflict has continued to flare up across the country while daily living standards have dropped due to instability, damaged infrastructure and economic decline. The GNA has faced major difficulties in exerting control outside of Tripoli, while institutional reunification and political reconciliation efforts have been slow to gain traction. To date, Libya remains a deeply divided country where militias wield more power than politicians, and smugglers, people traffickers and jihadist groups are able to exploit the population.

Unsustainable Instability in Libya

A major question, and threat, facing Libya today is the eventuality of a disappearance of the state as it has been known for the past 60 years. There is a subtle and well determined cohort of people in and outside the country that are profiting from the dire situation and are actively seeking to stall attempts to reconstruct the state’s institutions and bring a modicum of law and order to the country.

The Libyan Question 2020 (MED8)

Defence Viewpoints www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk, 2020

Five years after the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) proclaimed an ostensible unity deal, the war-torn North African country remains as divided as ever because the LPA, instead of unifying the country's governments and bridging its largely east-west rift, however, created a new third government, supported by the UN: the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli on top of the Council of State. The head of the State Council, which operates functionally as a parliament, is a member of the Justice and Construction Party (the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya). The intervention of foreign actors in Libya supporting one side of the warring parties, might lead to a stalemate in the civil war and the military conflict would set Libya's de facto partition, leaving a lot of oil in the Libyan National Army's hands. Moreover, this involvement will not be enough to temper the interference of other players, nor will it bring Libyans to the table.