Is the Economic Growth of ASEAN-10 related to Air Transportation? A Panel ARDL Approach (original) (raw)
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ASEAN Member States are currently in a step through liberalization of air traffic market in their region. The target is the 5 th freedom right for SouthEast Asia in 2020. Two opposite effects might be observed following the deregulation: one negative on flag carrier due to increase in competition, one positive on national and regional economies. One main issue concerns the impact of expected development of airport activity on national and regional economies. We propose an estimation of these impact, using a two stage econometric model applied to four ASEAN countries. We show that GDP is the most sensible to air traffic growth in region where only international airports are located, that is for region that exhibit the highest level of development. We show that up to the 5 th freedom right, given the expectation in tourism development, national GDP is expected to increase by 9% (Myanmar) to 51% (The Philippines) depending on the country. The magnitude of the impact depends on the tourism development expectation as well as on the tourism contribution to GDP. The analysis show then that economic benefit of air transport liberalization are non-negligible for the ASEAN countries. Given the magnitude of the estimated effect, the benefits would certainly overlap the negative effect of competition on the flag carriers.
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is PhD holder in economics and is currently the Head of the Air Transport Sustainable Growth Research Program at ENAC. Her expertise concerns the economic aspects of the air transport market in terms of passenger demand, airline behaviour, airport strategies, airport capacity, air transport liberalisation, energetic transition, innovation strategies, door-to-door travel and intermodality features between air other transport modes.
Today, the economic and social effects of the airports on the region they are located are widely accepted throughout the world including Turkey. In developing countries transportation sector is a significant tool of development. Since millennium there has been a great growth in the number of people who prefer air transportation in Turkey. The decrease in the cost of the transportation of both passengers and freight in air transport leads the increase of its accessibility. In this concept when a region has an active airport it helps to increase the region’s competitiveness and support its economic, social and cultural development. The aim of this study is to analyze whether an active airport and its traffic frequency have an effect on country’s macroeconomic indicators. In this study region - fixed effect and two stage least square (2SLS) models are applied with using panel data for 26 sub-regions at NUTS 2 level in Turkey period of 2004 - 2011. The results of this study support that increasing in number of active airports and its traffic frequency have a positive effect on regional economic growth
Air transportation usage and economic activity are interdependent. Air transportation provides employment and enables certain economic activities which are dependent on the availability of air transportation services. The economy, in turn, drives the demand for air transportation services resulting in the feedback relationship between the two. The objective of this work is to contribute to the understanding of the relationship between air transportation and economic activity. More specifically, this work seeks to (1) develop a feedback model to describe the relationship between air transportation and economic activity and (2) identify factors which stimulate or suppress air transportation development. To achieve these objectives this work uses an exploratory research method which combines literature review, aggregate data and case study analyses.
Exploring the Impact of Air Transport on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Australia
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The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted all sectors of the tourism industry, particularly air transportation. However, air transport remains an important contributor to economic growth globally. Thus, this study examines whether air transport (a proxy for tourism) stimulates economic growth to validate the air-transportation-led growth hypothesis (ALGH) in the Australian context. To conduct the study, we analyse the asymmetric long-run and short-run impacts of the air passengers carried (a proxy for tourism) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Australia. We use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modelling approach on data for Australia from 1971 to 2019. We also examined the effects of selected control variables (i.e., energy consumption, financial development, socialisation, and urbanisation) on economic growth. In both the short and long run, we observed statistically significant asymmetric impacts of air transport on economic growth. The positive shocks in air tra...
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The ASEAN Member States have decided to sign agreements which define the milestones for liberalization of air transport in the region (January 2015). The air transport liberalization up to the 5th freedom right therefore removes the frequency and capacity constraints existing in bilateral air service agreements between ASEAN member states. The interesting question is then whether to know if the liberalization will lead to benefits for the economies of the countries. These benefits could only occur if some conditions are fulfilled: the air transport sector has to be able to receive more traffic. We propose in this paper a relevant methodology to analyse the conditions under which liberalization would benefit to the development of air traffic. This analysis is focused on the airports as they represent the bottleneck of the air transport activity. We then, using data from the OAG database and from the ministry of transport, apply our analysis to the Indonesian market.