Models for domino effect analysis in chemical process industries (original) (raw)
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Safety Science, 2020
Recent catastrophic accidents in China and the USA urge and justify a thorough study on current & future research trends in the development of modeling methods and protection strategies for prevention and mitigation of large-scale escalating events or so-called domino effects in the process and chemical industries. This paper firstly provides an overview of what constitutes domino effects based on the definition and features, characterizing domino effect studies according to different research issues and approaches. The modeling approaches are grouped into three types while the protection strategies are divided into five categories, followed by detailed descriptions of representative modeling approaches and management strategies in chemical plants and clusters. The current research trends in this field are obtained based on the analysis of research work on domino effects caused by accidental events, nature events, and intentional attacks over a period of the past 30 years. A comparison analysis is conducted for the current modeling approaches and management strategies to pose their applications. Finally, this paper offers future research directions and identifies critical challenges in the field, aiming at improving the safety and security of chemical industrial areas so as to prevent and mitigate domino effects.
Quantitative Assessment of Risk Caused by Domino Accidents in Chemical Process Industries
2018
The use of a quantitative assessment to study the domino accidents can help in deriving a more perceptible and more steadfast result than in that of a qualitative assessment. The data required for the study is derived from various risk assessment studies previously taken up in chemical process industries. The methodology followed in this paper would help in the determination of the maximum-credible accident scenarios (MCAS) from a list of several credible accident scenarios obtained for a definite scope or different escalation scenarios to a secondary accident scenario from a primary accident. The most credible accident scenario is determined based on some potential factors—financial loss, fatalities, ecosystem damage that consider site-specific information for population density, asset density of the site, population distribution, damage area, importance factor, etc. The damage radii and other possible consequences are determined by modeling with the help of a comprehensive process...
Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2013
In the field of risks analysis, the domino effect has been documented in technical literature since 1947. The accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial plants. Fire and explosion are among the most frequent primary accidents for a domino effect due to the units under pressure and the storage of flammable and dangerous substances. Heat radiation and overpressure are one of major factors leading to domino effect on industrial sites and storage areas. In this paper we present a method for risk assessment of domino effects caused by heat radiation and overpressure on industrial sites. This methodology is based on the probabilistic models and the physical equations. It allows quantifying the effect of the escalation vectors (physical effects) in industrial plants, the three areas defined in this study may be useful in the choice of safe distances between industrial equipments. The results have proven the importance of domino effect assessment in the framework of risk analysis.
Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2015
High-impact low-probability (HILP) accident scenarios in industrial sites are raising a growing concern. Domino effect was responsible of several catastrophic accidents that affected the chemical and process industry, as well as critical infrastructures for energy as oil refineries. However, there is still a poor agreement on assessment procedures to address escalation hazard resulting in domino scenarios. The present study presents a review of the work done in the last 30 years in the field, and a critical analysis of available tools and knowledge gaps concerning domino effect assessment. The analysis of scientific publications concerning domino effect in the process industry resulted in a database of more than 60 documents, addressing three main issues: past accident analysis, models for equipment damage, risk assessment and safety management of domino scenarios. The methods, models and tools developed make now possible the quantitative assessment of domino scenarios in risk analysis and in safety management of industrial sites. Nevertheless, a number of open points still remain, where existing tools may be improved and uncertainty may be reduced.
Domino effect in chemical accidents: Main features and accident sequences
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2010
The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion → fire (27.6%), fire → explosion (27.5%) and fire → fire (17.8%).
Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2011
The paper presents an inventory, perhaps the most comprehensive till date, of the major processindustry accidents involving 'domino effect'. The inventory includes, among other relevant information, the sequence of accidents that had occurred in each domino episode. The information has been analyzed to identify several patterns which may be useful in further work on understanding domino effect and reducing the probability of its occurrence in future. A concept of 'local domino effect' has been introduced.
Domino effects in chemical factories and clusters: An historical perspective and discussion
Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2019
Highlights Review of knowledge development on complex domino accident processes Research is dominated by quantitative risk analyses, and models to calculate probabilities Research is closely related to political, and private decision making Research on barrier quality and quality of risk management is in its infancy Research on initiating scenarios as a starting point for domino-effects is necessary ABSTRACT Major accidents in Western countries, receiving a lot of media attention in the 1970s, are starting point for research into internal and external domino effects in the chemical and petrochemical sectors and clusters. Initially, these reports are published by government institutions and government-related research centres. With the upcoming quantitative risk analyses in the 1970s and 1980s, the so-called 'coloured books', published in the Netherlands, play a prominent role in quantifying these domino effects. Since the mid 1990s, the second European Seveso Directive encourages scientific research on domino effects, shown in substantially growth of academic publications on the topic. Research in Western countries is dominated by risk assessments, probabilities, and failure mechanisms are calculated for the complex phenomenon of domino effects and its consequences. Previous works are closely related to political, official and private decision-making. A transition towards risk management is still in its infancy. A future transition is necessary to understand initial scenarios as starting points for domino effects. In India a wake-up call for domino effects occurs in the mid-1990s. Chinese publications on domino effects in the international scientific press appear from the mid-2000s onwards. Due to a rapid industrialisation, the numbers in China country are overwhelming, versus chemical companies, as versus of many major accidents in this sector. This article will discuss results of research on domino effects, conducted in the period 1966-2018, as well as major determinants of these accident processes. Also present, and future transition in this research domain will be discussed.
2015
The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of ...