Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs (original) (raw)
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Quantitative Assessment of Risk Caused by Domino Accidents in Chemical Process Industries
2018
The use of a quantitative assessment to study the domino accidents can help in deriving a more perceptible and more steadfast result than in that of a qualitative assessment. The data required for the study is derived from various risk assessment studies previously taken up in chemical process industries. The methodology followed in this paper would help in the determination of the maximum-credible accident scenarios (MCAS) from a list of several credible accident scenarios obtained for a definite scope or different escalation scenarios to a secondary accident scenario from a primary accident. The most credible accident scenario is determined based on some potential factors—financial loss, fatalities, ecosystem damage that consider site-specific information for population density, asset density of the site, population distribution, damage area, importance factor, etc. The damage radii and other possible consequences are determined by modeling with the help of a comprehensive process...
Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2017
The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect.
Escalation thresholds in the assessment of domino accidental events
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
Domino effect is responsible of several catastrophic accidents that took place in the chemical and process industry. Although the destructive potential of these accidental scenarios is widely recognized, scarce attention was paid to this subject in the scientific and technical literature. Thus, well-assessed procedures for the quantitative evaluation of risk caused by domino effect are still lacking. Moreover, a wide uncertainty is present with respect to escalation criteria, and even in the identification of the escalation sequences that should be taken into account in the analysis of domino scenarios, either in the framework of quantitative risk analysis or of land-use planning.
Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2011
The paper presents an inventory, perhaps the most comprehensive till date, of the major processindustry accidents involving 'domino effect'. The inventory includes, among other relevant information, the sequence of accidents that had occurred in each domino episode. The information has been analyzed to identify several patterns which may be useful in further work on understanding domino effect and reducing the probability of its occurrence in future. A concept of 'local domino effect' has been introduced.
Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2013
In the field of risks analysis, the domino effect has been documented in technical literature since 1947. The accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial plants. Fire and explosion are among the most frequent primary accidents for a domino effect due to the units under pressure and the storage of flammable and dangerous substances. Heat radiation and overpressure are one of major factors leading to domino effect on industrial sites and storage areas. In this paper we present a method for risk assessment of domino effects caused by heat radiation and overpressure on industrial sites. This methodology is based on the probabilistic models and the physical equations. It allows quantifying the effect of the escalation vectors (physical effects) in industrial plants, the three areas defined in this study may be useful in the choice of safe distances between industrial equipments. The results have proven the importance of domino effect assessment in the framework of risk analysis.
Domino effect analysis in industrial sites
Chemical Engineering Transactions, 2019
Among all industrial accidents, those involving domino effects, that means the complex escalation and propagation of an accident in chemical and process industries, are amongst the most damaging. This kind of accident can lead to consequences over the population and the environment around the installations involved. For example, catastrophic accidents can be mentioned as that in Feyzin (1966), in Mexico City (1984), in Tianjin (2015). The good knowledge of cascading effects and their management is a real issue within an industrial site. This article introduces an approach developed by INERIS to better understand domino effects and help writers to integrate domino effects in hazard studies or in specific domino effect studies. This approach proposes the identification and assessment of domino scenarios. It follows work accomplished since 2002 about structural resistance due to accidental load.
2015
The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of ...
Safety Science, 2020
Recent catastrophic accidents in China and the USA urge and justify a thorough study on current & future research trends in the development of modeling methods and protection strategies for prevention and mitigation of large-scale escalating events or so-called domino effects in the process and chemical industries. This paper firstly provides an overview of what constitutes domino effects based on the definition and features, characterizing domino effect studies according to different research issues and approaches. The modeling approaches are grouped into three types while the protection strategies are divided into five categories, followed by detailed descriptions of representative modeling approaches and management strategies in chemical plants and clusters. The current research trends in this field are obtained based on the analysis of research work on domino effects caused by accidental events, nature events, and intentional attacks over a period of the past 30 years. A comparison analysis is conducted for the current modeling approaches and management strategies to pose their applications. Finally, this paper offers future research directions and identifies critical challenges in the field, aiming at improving the safety and security of chemical industrial areas so as to prevent and mitigate domino effects.