The effects of a demand shock upon the market prices of the exported paper and pulp (original) (raw)
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This paper investigates whether shocks to pulp for paper production for 17 Organisation for Economic CoOperation and Development (OECD) members over the period 1980-2012 are transitory or permanent. A variety of univariate and panel data unit root tests are employed. The presence of structural breaks is taken into account when performing those tests. Based on the Narayan-Popp univariate unit root test, wood production series for approximately 64.71% of countries is found to follow a non-stationary process. However, univariate unit root tests tend to have low power when the time span is relatively short. Consequently, three generations of panel unit root tests are considered. Cross-sectional dependence is detected. The first generation of unit roots do not effectively control for cross-sectional dependence, while the second and third generations do. The third generation accounts mainly for cross-sectional co-integration. As a confirmatory analysis, both unit root tests that tests for the null of non-stationarity and stationarity are considered. Most of the panel unit root tests point towards a non-stationary process. Hence, while these shocks can be transmitted to other economic sectors, past behaviours of wood production cannot be used for forecasting purposes. Forest conservation policies can have a permanent impact on pulp for paper production.
Revista Arvore, 2023
Brazil has advanced in export volume but has not been able to increase prices over the last decade for wood products. This work seeks to contribute to the understanding of this confl icting scenario, evaluating the growth in the revenue of Brazilian exports of these products during two periods: 2011-2015 and 2016-2020, as well as decomposing its eff ects in price, exchange rate, and volume. The method applied was the shift-share, widely used to identify determinants of sectoral and regional economic growth, being a precursor to the approach in the analysis of forest sector exports. Historical series for 5 (fi ve) categories of wood products were analyzed, with export data from the Ministry of Economy. The historical series of nominal exchange rates from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) was used. The real eff ective exchange rate (RER) followed the methodological note of the IPEA. All product categories analyzed had positive eff ects in terms of volume, for both periods, with a greater proportion in the second being driven by the exchange rate, although with a loss in real price, failing to off set infl ation. The only exception was wood manufacturers, a product with higher added value, which presented gains in volume, exchange rates, and price. The volume eff ect was the most relevant, followed by the exchange rate as a result of the appreciation of the dollar against the real against the exchange rate and control of infl ation in terms of the divergent eff ects on the national and international scenario. The price presented negative variations in export revenue, with a decline over the period. In addition to the added value of exported products, world stocks and levels of consumption may have contributed negatively to this scenario, aff ecting all categories of exported products, except for manufactured wood products, the only category that did not refl ect such justifi cations.
An econometric analysis of imported timber demand in Turkey
This paper attempts to understand and explain determinants of Turkish demand for foreign timber imported to Turkey. Explanatory variables in the propounded model include price of imported timber, price of domestically-produced sawlog as an imperfect substitute, income per capita, country population, and capacity utilization rates (CUR's) and industrial production indices (IPI's) of forest industry sectors. For empirical purpose we used a time series data covering the 15-year period between 1995 and 2009. The econometric model set for there appears to be able to explain more than 96% of the variation in demand for imported timber, with all of the parameter estimates, except for population parameter, being statistically significant. Estimation results confirm the existence of the price elasticity and substitute cross-price elasticity of demand for imported timber. Results also imply that the Turkish firms importing timber tend to consider domestic sawlog prices as much as, even more than, the price of foreign timber. The hypothesized effects of production changes in wood products and furniture industries on imported timber demand do not appear to be substantiated by this study, which can partly be attributed to the partial method of measuring CUR's and IPI's. Meanwhile, possible effects of income, population and exchange rate index of the Turkish currency on the imported timber demand of the country are not evidenced by the empirical findings of this research. Finally, our model forecasts, ceteris paribus, that by 2016 the level of Turkish demand for imported timber demand can reasonably be expected to exceed 2 million m 3 /year. This corresponds to the level of timber import observed in the years preceding the global economic crisis in 2009.
Australian Journal of Crop Science, 2021
The aim of the study is to analyze the production of round wood from planted forests and the price of pulp and paper and other forestry purposes in southern Brazil, from 2000 to 2019. In this study, we worked with historical series from secondary data collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics IBGE, referring to the produced and traded quantity in forestry (m³), forestry production value (one thousand dollars) and price ($/m³), obtained through the ratio between the production value and the respective produced quantities in each year. The silviculture production value (PV) is a derived variable calculated by the weighted average of quantity and average current price paid to the producer (m³), according to the harvest and commercialization periods of each product. The price evolution (P) was separated according to purpose and obtained through the quotient between the production value and respective quantities produced in each year. The trend models were estimated, in which annual growth rates of the real price and produced quantity were calculated for the two roundwood purposes in the evaluated period. Then, we sought to fit the results according to the possibilities of shift of the supply and demand curves. The results indicate that pulp and paper presented positive rates of produced quantity and price, of 5.8775 and 1.3704, respectively. The nomenclature for other purposes had a positive rate for the produced quantity (4.1929) and a negative rate for price (-0.3203). Thus, logwood for pulp and paper showed a dominant shift in the demand curve to the right, showing a rising market, while for other purposes, there was a dominant shift in supply to the right, corroborating the concept of positive variation in quantity and a negative variation in price. Given these results, it is important to highlight that the study refers to one federative unit in Brazil, which signals the recommendation that other similar studies be carried out in other states to better understand the impact of production and price of these purposes on the Brazilian market.
An econometric model for demand of pulpwood market in Brazil
JULY 2020, 2020
The pulp industry has a great importance to the economy of Brazil and despite of being one of the biggest producer in the world this industry is still expanding in the country. In spite of the importance of the planted forests as main source for the pulp industry and other products, pulpwood for the cellulose market has received little attention in Brazil. Therefore, the objective of this research is the study of pulpwood demand in Brazil from 1994 to 2016, using econometric tools, where the demand equation was specified and adjusted by the Ordinary Least Squares method. The results showed that pulpwood price and the capacity of the pulp industry explain the pulpwood demand with good econometric results. The pulpwood demand is inelastic to price fluctuations and elastic to installed capacity. These results are consistent with the international estimations and they can assist projecting policies that promote more rational and sustainable management of the wood and consequently the fo...
Regional demands for pulp and paper products
Journal of forest economics, 2010
The pulp and paper industry has experienced dramatic changes during the past several decades with large variations in world regional market shares of production capacity and consumption patterns. Based on panel data available (1961-2000) from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, this paper estimates dynamic demand models for pulp and paper products in four major trading regions: Asia, Europe, the North American Free Trade Agreement Area, and South America. With or without price in the model, short-run demands are generally output inelastic. However, without price in the model, long-run output elasticities were more elastic, particularly in the Paper/ Paperboard, Printing/Writing, and Household/Sanitary sectors with most elasticities greater than 1. With price included in the model, long-run demands were generally output inelastic, with primary exceptions being the Paper/Paperboard sector for all but the NAFTA region and Wrapping/Packaging for Asia and South America. Price was generally significant with long-run elasticities, in absolute value, in the (0.05, 0.11) range. And as a measure of urbanization, the percent of the population living in urban areas significantly affects consumption in total and in the Pulp and Printing/Writing sectors.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2015
Forests play a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and can be managed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and conserve or sequester carbon. Global policy and environmental changes can affect regional consumption of forest products, as well as interregional trade of forest goods and services. This study analyzes global and regional change impacts on the production, consumption and trade of forest products in two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden. Annual data on removal and trade for roundwood and sawnwood is used to identify structural breaks based on Chow tests. According to the analysis, the time period is divided into two periods: t1 (1964-1980) and t2 (1981-2012). In the first period, breaks occurred in 1975 and 1976 in the Finnish model and no break is found in the Swedish model. In the second period, we identify breaks in 1991 and 1992 for the Finnish model and in 2004, 2005 and 2006 for the Swedish model. Although our findings have broad empirical support, we do not identify any specific incident as a direct cause of the changes in the consumption and trade patterns of the two types of wood in these countries. The models and analysis presented here can serve as methodological tools for policymakers to better understand the effects of structural changes in the production of forest goods and services in the Nordic region and globally.
Impact of Economic Crisis on Wood Markets (Consumption, Production and Trade)
USV Annals of Economics and Public Administration, 2013
Global economic crisis represents one of the causes why wood consumption is increasing especially in countries less developed. In countries where governments couldn’t improve the quality of life and unemployment rate is higher, local communities devastate a lot of forestry. In last thirty years we saw a deforestation process at the global level related to land being converted to other uses: agriculture and urbanization, which represent a positive trend of a negative use. The statistics reveal, on one hand, an increasing demand for paper, paper products, wood products and wood energy. So this point is important to analyze: where wood came from and where it is going as either raw material or processed goods? For undeveloped countries, like Romania, it is easy to export primary wood product without evaluating the consequences. On the other hand, developed countries like Sweden export value added products which brig them higher value and profits and require greater manufacturing and mar...
Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries
Journal of Forest Economics, 2005
The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or ''price transmission'' between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years. r
Effects of the exchange rate on international prices of pulp and paper in Brazilian currency
CERNE, 2010
This study aimed to analyze effects of the exchange rate adopted in Brazil as well as pulp and paper prices in the U.S. on pulp and paper prices in Brazilian currency, from April 2003 to February 2009. To attain that, the shift-share method was used, and analysis results indicated that price variations in Brazilian currency were more strongly influenced by exchange rate variations than by variations in dollar prices, demonstrating the importance of the exchange rate policy adopted by Brazil in the behavior of pulp and paper prices.