Failure mode and effect analysis on safety critical components of space travel (original) (raw)

Probability of Failure Analysis Standards and Guidelines for Expendable Launch Vehicles

Recognizing the central importance of probability of failure estimates to ensuring public safety for launches, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and U.S. Air Force (USAF), through the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG), developed a guide for conducting valid probability of failure (POF) analyses for expendable launch vehicles (ELV), with an emphasis on POF analysis for new ELVs. A probability of failure analysis for an ELV produces estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of potentially hazardous events, which are critical inputs to launch risk analysis of debris, toxic, or explosive hazards. This guide is intended to document a framework for POF analyses commonly accepted in the US, and should be useful to anyone who performs or evaluates launch risk analyses for new ELVs. The CSWG guidelines provide performance standards and definitions of key terms, and are being revised to address allocation to flight times and vehicle response modes. The POF performance standard allows a launch operator to employ alternative, potentially innovative methodologies so long as the results satisfy the performance standard. Current POF analysis practice at US ranges includes multiple methodologies described in the guidelines as accepted methods, but not necessarily the only methods available to demonstrate compliance with the performance standard. The guidelines include illustrative examples for each POF analysis method, which are intended to illustrate an acceptable level of fidelity for ELV POF analyses used to ensure public safety. The focus is on providing guiding principles rather than " recipe lists. " Independent reviews of these guidelines were performed to assess their logic, completeness, accuracy, self-consistency, consistency with risk analysis practices, use of available information, and ease of applicability. The independent reviews confirmed the general validity of the performance standard approach and suggested potential updates to improve the accuracy each of the example methods, especially to address reliability growth.

Application of scenario-driven hazard analysis in the solid rocket booster

International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 2016

Bibliographical Notes: Kouroush Jenab is a senior member of IEEE, received the B.Sc. degree from the IE Department at Isfahan University of Technology (1989), the M.Sc. degree from the IE Department at Tehran Polytechnic (1992), and the Ph.D. degree from the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Ottawa (2005). He served as a senior engineer/manager in auto, and hightech industries for 18 years. He joined the National Research Council Canada as a research officer where he participated in several international research projects. In 2006, he joined the

Safety Design for Space Systems

2009

Progress in space safety lies in the acceptance of safety design and engineering as an integral part of the design and implementation process for new space systems. Safety must be seen as the principle design driver of utmost importance from the outset of the design process, which is only achieved through a culture change that moves all stakeholders toward front-end loaded safety concepts. This approach entails a common understanding and mastering of basic principles of safety design for space systems at all levels of the program organisation. Fully supported by the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS), written by the leading figures in the industry, with frontline experience from projects ranging from the Apollo missions, Skylab, the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, this book provides a comprehensive reference for aerospace engineers in industry.It addresses each of the key elements that impact on space systems safety, including: t...

IAC-09-D2.2.09 Space Launch & Re-Entry Risk Hazard Analysis – a New Capability

Australia has recently introduced a new capability for space launch and re-entry Risk Hazard Analysis (RHA) into service. This capability, called the Range Safety Template Toolkit (RSTT), was originally developed for air-launched guided weapons but is now being applied to two very different space safety applications. The first is the US/Australia HIFiRE hypersonics research program and the other is the return to Earth of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Hayabusa spacecraft in mid-2010. RSTT offers rapid (minutes to hours) generation of mission-specific safety templates. The templates can be combined with geospatial information, such as asset locations and population densities, to provide casualty and damage estimates for operational planning and safety analysis. The templates are generated from a set of ground impact points generated specifically for the mission. Creation of the ground impact point database for a mission is a computationally-intensive activity that simulates all (reasonably) possible failures and trajectories using a Six-Degree-of-Freedom (6-DOF) model of the vehicle system including Failure Response Modes (FRMs). RSTT is able to support experimental vehicle design by including design parameter tolerances as part of the launch envelope thus eliminating the need to 'lock down' design before producing an RHA. It also includes a new methodology for predicting the breakup of vehicles called 'fractal fragmentation'. This estimates the distribution of fragments based on successive breakup into smaller fragments, the 'degree' being dependent on the excess energy available. It seamlessly handles explosions, aerodynamic breakup, and combined events.

A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

2003

The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with mflny TTS finn intemat.;onallallnch flystemfl . However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and mos...

A physics/engineering of failure based analysis and tool for quantifying residual risks in hardware

Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 2000 Proceedings International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity, 2000

NASA is supporting efforts to improve the verification and validation process and the risk management process for spaceflight projects. A physics-of-failure based Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) methodology has been developed and is currently being implemented on various NASA projects and as part of NASA's new model-based spacecraft development environment. DDP weights the criticality of the various relevant F " s by including the likelihood and impact on mission requirements. The methodology begins with prioritizing the risks (or F"s/mechanisms) (FM's) relevant to a mission which need to be addressed. These risks can be detected or prevented through the implementation of a set of mission assurance activities-referred to herein as "PACTS.' Each of these PACTs has some effectiveness against one or more F " s but also has an associated resource cost. The F " s can be weighted according to their likelihood of occurrence and their mission impact should they occur. The net effectiveness of various combinations of PACTs can then be evaluated against these weighted F " s to obtain the residual risk for each of these F " s and the associated resource costs to achieve these risk levels. The process thus identifies the projectrelevant "tall pole" F " s and design drivers and allows real time tailoring with the evolution of the design and technology content. The DDP methodology allows risk management in its truest sense: it identifies and assesses risk, provides options and tools for risk decision makmg and mitigation and allows for real-time tracking of current risk status. I. INTRODUCTION NASA continues to make progress in response to its mandate to fabricate and operate spacecraft "faster, better, and cheaper".? The posture of risk avoidance has given way to active risk management. A key element of NASA's risk management approach is to consider "risk as a r e s~u r c e " .~ Like schedule, mass and power, risk is now a resource to I I PACTs: Preventions (typically design measures), Analyses, process Controls (e.g., parts selection), and Tests NASA Strategic Management Handbook,

Launch and assembly reliability analysis for human space exploration missions

2012 IEEE Aerospace Conference, 2012

NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to transdestination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

An Approach for Calculating the Cost of Launch Vehicle Reliability

AIAA SPACE 2007 Conference & Exposition, 2007

The goal of this paper is to determine the cost of increasing launch vehicle reliability during conceptual design. The launch vehicle mission requirements are held constant while various reliability strategies are evaluated for their affects on different performance and cost metrics. Traditional design disciplines, such as trajectory analysis and propulsion are included within the performance analysis while the cost discipline focuses on launch vehicle development and production cost. The reliability modeling is developed specifically for application to launch vehicles. A design environment is created that integrates the performance, cost, and reliability disciplines for use with optimization. The integrated environment is utilized to determine a set of optimal design configurations based on a specific weighting of cost and reliability. Different design options for the Cargo Launch Vehicle from the Exploration System Architecture Study are considered and the final result is a set of configurations optimized for a particular weighting of cost and reliability.

Risk assessment in the aerospace industry

Safety Science, 2002

The objective of the paper is to summarise some of the most significant Risk Assessment methodologies applied and developed by Alenia in the field of space systems, with particular emphasis on manned space transportation vehicles, where mission success and safety play a role of paramount importance.