Impact of Population Growth, Poverty and Unemployment on Economic Growth (original) (raw)
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Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 2022
This study investigated the impact of unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. Population rate, unemployment rate and labour force were used as independent variables while Gross domestic product (GDP) as dependent variable. Annual time series data on our targeted variables were obtained from secondary sources including the Central Bank of Nigeria annual statistical bulletin, World Bank development indicators (various years). The Eview9 Statistical Software was employed to analyze the data empirically. The Unit root test shows that Gross domestic product, unemployment rate and labour force variables to be evaluated are all stationary after first deference I(1) while population rate was stationary at level I(0). The data were analyzed using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). From the results of the ARDL estimates it was revealed that among others, unemployment rate impact negatively on GDP but significant only in the long run. Population rate also impacts ...
Effect of Population Growth on Unemployment in Nigeria
Current Trends in Social and Management Sciences Research, 2023
This study investigates the impact of population growth on the unemployment rate in Nigeria using the Auto Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is used as a tool to determine series stationarity. Variables considered in the study include unemployment, literacy rate, life expectancy, real GDP, and population. The ARDL cointegration test is used to determine whether there is a cointegration relationship between variables. Furthermore, the results of the cointegration test indicate the presence of cointegration between the explanatory variables and the unemployment rate in Nigeria. The results of the study show that population growth and life expectancy have a positive impact on unemployment in Nigeria. In contrast, the literacy rate and the unemployment rate have an inverse relationship. Additionally, non-oil real gross domestic product shows a negative association with the unemployment rate. The Granger causality test was used to examine further the correlation between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria. The results show that there is no bidirectional causal relationship between population and unemployment, suggesting that each variable is not significantly responsible for the other. However, the probability value of the Granger causality between population and unemployment is 0.1413, which is higher than the significance level (0.005) leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis. This implies that population growth Granger causes unemployment in Nigeria. This result corresponds to the expectations of a developing country like Nigeria, where the number of jobs created does not keep up with population growth.
Unemployment, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria
Journal of Economics and Management, 2019
Aim/purpose-This study investigates the links between unemployment, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria between the periods, 1985-2015. Design/methodology/approach-The paper employed the Augment Dickey Fuller test for unit root test, Johansen cointegration for cointegration, Ganger causality for causality test and Error Correction Model to establish the short-run links between the variables. Findings-The unit root test result revealed that the variables trend with time indicating their failure of integration at level. However, they were found to be stationary at first difference. The causality result revealed that there is no causal relationship between unemployment, poverty and growth in Nigeria. Similarly, the cointegration results showed that there is no long-run relationship between unemployment, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria. The short-run parameter estimates indicated that unemployment has a negative and significant relationship with growth. However, the coefficient of the interaction between unemployment and poverty is positive and significant at the conventional level.
Cointegration inferences on issues of poverty and population growth in Nigeria
Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 2013
Nigeria is the most populated black nation in the world, with enormous wealth from crude petroleum however, the country has been facing numerous socio-economic challenges including poverty. This paper discusses issues of poverty and population growth in Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests as well as the Engle Granger and Johansen's cointegration tests were used to test for cointegration and stationarity of the time series data on poverty rate, population growth and gross domestic product (GDP) real growth rate in Nigeria, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis was used to estimate a statistical model for their relationship. The results show that the variables are trend stationary and cointegrated; with a positive relationship between poverty rate and population growth, and negative relationship between GDP real growth rate and poverty rate in Nigeria. Hence, the need for the government to implement strict policies to reduce the country's population growth, while ensuring increased investment in human capital development, agriculture and technology for greater productivity and poverty reduction.
The Effect of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Nigeria
American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics
This study investigates the trends and effects of unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data from relevant institutions for analysis from 2010 to 2020. The Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) bounds test methodology is utilized to determine the long run relationship between unemployment and economic growth. The empirical findings using the ARDL Model confirmed that there exists an inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment, and that unemployment leads to increasing crime rates in both short and long run.
Analysis of the Effect of Unemployment on the Economic Growth of Nigeria
Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019
This paper sought to estimate the impact of unemployment on the economic growth in Nigeria, using time series data from 1999 to 2017. The data used were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria database and World Bank' data Bank. Explanatory research design was employed using Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Philip-Perron Unit root tests, OLS and pair-wise Granger Causality. The major objective of this work is to analyse the impact as well as the direction of the causality among the GDP which proxies for economic growth and in line with Okun's law. The Granger causality test shows a unidirectional relationship between unemployment and Nigeria's economic growth. The Population growth result which is also included in model is contemporaneous to the economic growth. The linear relationship of the population growth signifies that government should encourage natality rate with robust quality education and human capital development. The study recommends provision of development in other economic sectors which will actually diversify the economy and create employment to the teeming unemployed youth in Nigeria.
The Determinants of Long Run Economic Growth in Nigeria
Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2018
The paper investigated the determinants of the long-run economic growth in Nigeria. The data was obtained from the World Development Indicator (WDI) database based on annual time series for the period (1981 to 2014) on real gross domestic product, government consumption expenditure, inflation and population growth rate. Consequently, Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Model was employed for the analysis. The study found cointegrated relationship among the variables. The Error Correction Model (ECM) revealed that the speed of adjustment to restore equilibrium is 0.85 which suggests that there is a stable long run relationship. The policy implication of this finding is that the Nigerian government should give more emphasis on improving its level of technology, investing in research and development, increasing the stock of human capital, and build up its capital stock in order to boost economic growth. Contribution/ Originality: This study is one of the very few studies which have investigated the determinants of long run economic growth in none crosscountry situation using ARDL model. Also, it contributes to the existing literature in the area.
East African Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 2019
Nigeria records high population growth, which is considered to be detrimental to its growth and development over the years. This study therefore empirically examined the impact of net population growth on economic growth in Nigeria, using annual time series data covering the period of 1970 to 2017. The annual data was sourced from the World Bank Indicator (WDI) and United Nations Conference on Research and Development. The empirical results were based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration analysis. The study established a negative and significant long-run co-integrating relationship between economic growth and net population growth. There is also evidence of unidirectional causality running from net population growth to economic growth in Nigeria. In line with the findings, the study recommends that government should put in place policies that would reduce fertility rate in Nigeria. Similarly the teaming Nigerian population should be harnessed to make it contributes to national development. This can be achieved through the development and implementation of appropriate educational policies that empower the citizens with the right education and skills sets. In this way, the populace will be economically productive and will meaningfully contribute to economic growth.
Impact of Population Growth on Poverty in Nigeria
GUSAU JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
This study investigates the impact of population growth on poverty rate in Nigeria over the period: 1986 to 2021. To achieve this objective, time series data was collected mainly from National Population Commission (NPC) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) techniques. The results indicate the nonstationary of the variables. That is, both population growth and poverty rate time series are integrated of order one I(1). The study tested for cointegration using Johensen cointegration and the result indicates the presence of cointegration among the variables of study. Considering the integration and cointegration nature of the data, Dynamic Ordinary Least Square was estimated to avoid the possible problems of spurious regression and serial correlation. The result revealed a significant negative long-run impact of population growth on poverty in in Nigeria. Based on the empirical finding...
An Empirical study on the relationship between Poverty, Inequality and Economic Growth in Nigeria
The paper used bound testing approach to cointegration and Granger causality test to determine the relationship between poverty, inequality and economic growth in Nigeria. A secondary time series data were used in the study from 2000 to 2012. In examining the causal relation among the variables, the result shows that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from RGDP to poverty, which means that an increase in GDP in Nigeria causes high level of poverty. In addition, the result revealed that the RGDP Granger causes the literacy level without a feedback. The result further infers that the bidirectional causal relationship existed between literacy and poverty. The paper also indicated that population growth Granger causes literacy without feedback while unidirectional causality exists between poverty and population. The policy implication is that demand management policies aim at reducing the gap between rich and poor should be vigorously pursued in order to minimise the rate of lingering inequality in the country and spur institutional change that will bring about betterment of people in the country. More so, concerted effort is needed to strengthen small and medium enterprises through tax holiday, access to finance and temporal protection so that more employment would be generated which in turn will reduce poverty and inequality.