Getting to zero : impacts on local electricity distribution systems arising from UK 2050 carbon pathway scenarios (original) (raw)
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Carbon and environmental footprinting of low carbon UK electricity futures to 2050
Energy, 2012
Electricity generation contributes a large proportion of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the predominant use of fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) combustion for this purpose. A range of future UK energy scenarios has been employed to determine their resulting environmental and carbon footprints. Methodologies have been established to calculate these footprints for the UK electricity supply industry on both a historic timescale and in accordance with the three selected scenarios. The latter scenarios, developed by the UK SUPERGEN Consortium on 'Highly Distributed Power Systems' (HDPS), were characterised as 'Business As Usual' (BAU), 'Low Carbon' (LC) and 'Deep Green' (DG) futures, and yielded possible electricity demands out to 2050. It was found that the environmental footprint of the current power network is 41 million (M) global hectares (gha). If future trends follow a 'Business As Usual' scenario, then this footprint is observed to fall to about 25 Mgha in 2050. The LC scenario implies an extensive penetration of micro-generators in the home to satisfy heat and power demands. However, these energy requirements are minimised by way of improved insulation of the building fabric and other demand reduction measures. In contrast, the DG scenario presupposes a network where centralised renewable energy technologies e mainly large-scale onshore and offshore wind turbines -have an important role in the power generation. However, both the LC and DG scenarios were found to lead to footprints of less than 4 Mgha by 2050. These latter two scenarios were found to give rise to quite similar trajectories over the period 2010e2050. They are therefore more likely to reflect an effective transition pathway in terms of meeting the 2050 UK CO 2 reduction targets associated with decarbonisation of its power network. However, this appears unlikely to be achieved by 2030e2040 as advocated by the UK Government's advisory Committee on Climate Change in order to meet overall national carbon reduction targets.
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy
The United Kingdom has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its 'greenhouse gas' emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, socio-technical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules, Central Coordination and Thousand Flowers; each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy 'trilemma,' i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility, social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system 'actors' (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in demand side response for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and technoeconomic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a 'life-cycle' basis to determine the greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here, the challenges, insights and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the United Kingdom are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers and other stakeholders.
Measuring the progress and impacts of decarbonising British electricity
Energy, 2017
Britain's ambitious carbon targets require that electricity be immediately and aggressively decarbonised, so it is reassuring to report that electricity sector emissions have fallen 46% in the three years to June 2016, their lowest since 1960. This paper analyses the factors behind this fall and the impacts they are having. The main drivers are: demand falling 1.3% per year due to efficiency gains and mild winters; gas doubling its share to 60% of fossil generation due to the carbon price floor; and the dramatic uptake of wind, solar and biomass which now supply up to 45% of demand. Accounting conventions also play their part: imported electricity and biomass would add 5% and 2% to emissions if they were included. The pace of decarbonisation is impressive, but raises both engineering and economic challenges. Falling peak demand has delayed fears of capacity shortage, but minimum net demand is instead becoming a problem. The headroom between inflexible nuclear and intermittent renewables is rapidly shrinking, with controllable output reaching a minimum of just 5.9 GW as solar output peaked at 7.1 GW. 2015 also saw Britain's first negative power prices, the highest winter peak prices for six years, and the highest balancing costs.
A Prospective Net Energy and Environmental Life-Cycle Assessment of the UK Electricity Grid
Energies, 2020
National Grid, the UK’s largest utility company, has produced a number of energy transition scenarios, among which “2 degrees” is the most aggressive in terms of decarbonization. This paper presents the results of a combined prospective net energy and environmental life cycle assessment of the UK electricity grid, based on such a scenario. The main findings are that the strategy is effective at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions (albeit to a reduced degree with respect to the projected share of “zero carbon” generation taken at face value), but it entails a trade-off in terms of depletion of metal resources. The grid’s potential toxicity impacts are also expected to remain substantially undiminished with respect to the present. Overall, the analysis indicates that the “2 degrees” scenario is environmentally sound and that it even leads to a modest increase in the net energy delivered to society by the grid (after accounting for the energy investments required to deploy al...
Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK
Technological Forecasting and …, 2010
This paper describes the approach to developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK, being pursued in a major new interdisciplinary research project. The project aims (a) to learn from past transitions to help explore future transitions and what might enable or avoid them; (b) to design and evaluate transition pathways towards alternative sociotechnical energy systems and infrastructures for a low carbon future; and (c) to understand and, where appropriate, model the changing roles, influences and opportunities of large and small 'actors' in the dynamics of transitions. The paper describes the approach, which builds on the work of Dutch researchers on transitions and transition management using a multilevel framework of niches, sociotechnical regime and landscape, as well as on other parts of the innovation systems literature. It also describes its application to several outline transition pathways to a low carbon energy system in the UK. The pathways embrace both the evolution of the physical and institutional infrastructure changes and the roles of both large actors, e.g. multinational energy supply and distribution companies, national governments, major investors, and small actors, e.g. households, innovators and entrepreneurs.
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2010
The European Union (EU) has the objective to limit anthropogenic global climate change to 2 8C above pre-industrial levels, which according to the European Commission (EC) will require long term stabilization of atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) at around 450 ppm CO 2 equivalents (EC, 2007a). It is concluded by the EC that this implies global emission reductions of GHG of about 50% by 2050 relative to 1990 levels (Ibid.). The scientific facts leading up to this conclusion rely on estimates laid down by the IPCC which suggests that global CO 2 reductions of 50-85% by 2050, relative 2000 emissions, gives a best estimate on long term stabilization of atmospheric levels of 445-490 ppm CO 2 equivalents ($350-400 ppm CO 2) corresponding to a temperature increase of 2-2.4 8C (IPCC, 2007). The current European standpoint while negotiating for an international treaty on limiting GHG emissions is that the EU should reduce emissions by 30% by 2020 and all developed countries should reduce emissions by 60-80% by
The UK low carbon energy transition: prospects and challenges
2013
The RTP Project [www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk\] commenced in May 2012 and is sponsored by the 'Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council' (EPSRC: Grant EP/K005316/1). It is a renewal and development of the earlier 'Transition Pathways' (TP) project, which was initially established in 2008 with the joint sponsorship of E.ON UK (the electricity generator) and the EPSRC. This project addressed the challenge of the so-called energy 'trilemma': the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure, and affordable energy services for the electricity sector. It developed and applied a variety of tools and approaches to analyse the technical feasibility, environmental impacts, economic consequences, and social acceptability of three 'transition pathways' towards a UK low carbon electricity system. These pathways explore the roles of market, government and civil society actors in the governance of a low carbon energy transition.