Assessment of the Impact of Trade Partner’s Cross-Country Sovereign Rating on the Financial Market of Selected Emerging Market Economies (original) (raw)

2013

In recent years, credit rating agencies such as Moody’s, S&P and Fitch either upgraded or downgraded countries when their economies were either blossoming or in a chaotic state. There is general consensus that credit rating agencies’ actions have triggered substantial financial unrestrained behaviour that resulted to the recent financial meltdown in 2008. To what extent does a sovereign ratings upgrade or downgrade of the major trade partners of an emerging market economy impact trade both domestically and internationally? This research is done using data from 10 emerging countries between 2000-2011to investigate the cross-country impact of either an upgrade or downgrade of an emerging economy’s principal trade partners on its financial market. In addition we analyse the impact prior and after the 2008 financial crisis. The ramifying impact on emerging economies due to sovereign grade change given a 10 days event window prior and after the event is investigated. We use both a pooled...

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development An International and Comparative Review The effects of sovereign credit rating spillovers on neighbouring countries' financial markets

This study investigates the spillover effects of long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating announcements on foreign currency-denominated bonds and stock markets in 19 African countries during the period of 1994–2014. Using a combination of Granger causality tests and impulse response function, the results show that there is marginal regional sovereign rating spillover impacts that are quickly absorbed into capital markets trading long-term securities. The analysis further shows marginal spillover effects that persist over longer time periods in sovereign ratings of other countries in the same region from a sovereign rating change in one country. These results imply that the regional bilateral linkages between countries serve as channels of capital and sovereign credit rating information flow. Thus, it is imperative for regional countries to pursue prudent developmental macroeconomic policies to avoid negative ratings that will have regional spillover effects.

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The World Bank Economic Review, 2002

Changes in sovereign debt ratings and outlooks affect financial markets in emerging economies. They affect not only the instrument being rated (bonds) but also stocks. They directly impact the markets of the countries rated and generate cross country contagion. The effects of rating and outlook changes are stronger during crises, in nontransparent economies, and in neighboring countries. Upgrades tend to take place during market rallies, whereas downgrades occur during downturns, providing support to the idea that credit rating agencies contribute to the instability in emerging financial markets.

Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets

International Business Research

This study critically investigates the determinants of sovereign credit ratings in emerging markets, during 2001 to 2015. This was conducted in 20 emerging markets, using S&P and Moody ratings. Linear framework econometric approach with the use of pooled Ordinary Least Square regression method was adopted in the study. The explanatory power of the estimated models has a good performance across both rating agencies. The study reveals the importance of five macroeconomic variables in determining the sovereign credit rating of emerging markets. These variables are: gross domestic product per capital, inflation, government debt, reserves, and external debt. Also, world governance indicators, a proxy for qualitative/political variables, were found to be an essential determinant of rating.

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Asian Financial Markets

E+M Ekonomie a Management, 2021

Each region/country seeks to become more efficient to gain the confidence of potential investors. Most of the Asian economies are categorized as emerging markets, where the role of financial markets has even become more intensified to provide financial services to increasing economic and financial activities. Asian financial market has momentously suffered during the Asian, and global financial crisis. The mass destruction was mainly caused due to the mounting uncertainty, which spillover throughout the region, where investors lost their confidence. Considering the pivotal economic role of financial markets, and implications evolve due to sovereign credit rating announcements, this study aims to model the role of sovereign credit rating announcements by Standard and Poor’s, and Moody’s on financial market development of the Asian region. For 24 Asian countries/regions, we perform a regression analysis on sovereign credit rating changes based on financial market development index and...

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