An Onerous Endeavour Navigating Libya ’ s Political Quicksands (original) (raw)

The Libyan Question 2020 (MED8)

Defence Viewpoints www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk, 2020

Five years after the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) proclaimed an ostensible unity deal, the war-torn North African country remains as divided as ever because the LPA, instead of unifying the country's governments and bridging its largely east-west rift, however, created a new third government, supported by the UN: the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli on top of the Council of State. The head of the State Council, which operates functionally as a parliament, is a member of the Justice and Construction Party (the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya). The intervention of foreign actors in Libya supporting one side of the warring parties, might lead to a stalemate in the civil war and the military conflict would set Libya's de facto partition, leaving a lot of oil in the Libyan National Army's hands. Moreover, this involvement will not be enough to temper the interference of other players, nor will it bring Libyans to the table.

Libya - Internal fragmentation and the dragging dialogue_July 2017

In 2017 Libya found itself at the centre of great attention within European governments. A plethora of issues have plagued the country: the civil war has flared up again in parts of the country; the UN-negotiated Government of National Accord is still far from being acknowledged; and the divisions between the power blocs in the east and west have widened, especially due to the fighting in the centre and south of Libya. Furthermore, nearly 90% of all migrants have reached Europe through the central Mediterranean route in the first six months of this year.

European Think Tanks Contact Group on Libya: Towards a New Common European Narrative on Libya

Rome, IAI, July 2023, 22 p. (Documenti IAI ; 23|16), 2023

The emergence of a National Unity Government (GNU) led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh in mid-March 2021 had initially given rise to cautious optimism for the Libyan transition. Yet, many challenges persist, and this optimism quickly dissipated amidst rising tensions in the economic, political and security domains. Libya remains fragmented among a multiplicity of local actors and exposed to significant external interferences. Grappling with the need to rebuild its infrastructure and revamp the economy, Libya's dire socioeconomic and political situation has been further exacerbated by the pandemic. Institutionally, the country has become an arena of power competition, corruption and chaos in the context of the now postponed electoral process. Against this backdrop, the oneyear project established a Contact Group among leading European think tanks working on Libya with the objective of forging common understandings and narratives on the Libyan transition, focusing on three crucial dossiers: the democratic transition (and notably, women's representation and participation), migration and socioeconomic issues. This paper is based on the finding and the analyses provided by the different group and provide a nuanced picture of the situation at the beginning of 2022. It is important to note, however, that the situation on the ground in Libya is particularly hectic and changes quickly. As such, some of the findings and analyses might be slightly outdated given the rapid changes on the ground.

Libya: Moving Beyond the Transitional Mood

The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) signed in December 2015 resulted in some relative stabilization and improvement of the security situation of the country, especially in Tripoli. Yet, it has not brought the political and institutional divisions to an end. The diplomatic focus put on revising the LPA during 2017 has shed light on the vested interest in the status quo of some powerful armed groups linked to politicians and businessmen. This entails the risk of a new armed confrontation between rival groups in the near future. It also highlights the necessity of increased diplomatic focus on Libya’s economic rehabilitation.

Libya Regional Non-Military Perspectives on Recent Developments in Libya

Popular protests against the authoritarian rule of Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi in Libya in February 2011 resulted in violent armed conflict between Gaddafi’s forces and rebel fighters. In March 2011, NATO implemented a no-fly zone to enforce UN Resolution 1973, which condemned the ‘systematic violation of human rights’ by the Libyan authorities under Gaddafi and authorized member states to ‘take all necessary measures’ to protect civilians and civilian populated areas. By October the same year, Libya’s interim authorities declared the country’s official liberation from Gaddafi’s rule. (Access full report here) General elections took place in July 2012, and Libya experienced a period of relative stability and growth. However, throughout 2013 and 2014, tensions grew between different political and militia factions. This resulted in the emergence of two distinct blocs. One bloc, comprised mainly of Islamist factions, sought the removal of Gaddafi-era officials from positions of power. The other bloc opposed Islamist groups and believed former regime figures could continue to play a role in Libya. A second general election took place in June 2014; however, the Islamist political factions fared poorly. In response to the political defeat, Islamist-aligned militias took control of Tripoli by force, reinstated the previous government, and declared the 2014 elections unconstitutional. The newly-elected parliament fled to eastern Libya where they continued to meet. The result was two separate sets of governing institutions – one in eastern Libya and the Islamist-backed government in Tripoli – covering different parts of the country and with competing claims to legitimacy. This fragmentation of Libya’s social and political fabric led to instability, violence and confusion, particularly in the capital of Tripoli. As conflict escalated in 2014, many foreign embassies and international organisations relocated across the border to Tunisia. International support also shifted from high-level, governance-related programming to peace building assistance and humanitarian aid. Throughout 2015, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) attempted to bring rival factions together to agree on a unity government. On 17 December 2015, partly as a result of UNSMIL’s efforts, Libyan representatives signed the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) in Morocco, creating the Government of National Accord (GNA) that took power in Tripoli in March 2016. However, conflict has continued to flare up across the country while daily living standards have dropped due to instability, damaged infrastructure and economic decline. The GNA has faced major difficulties in exerting control outside of Tripoli, while institutional reunification and political reconciliation efforts have been slow to gain traction. To date, Libya remains a deeply divided country where militias wield more power than politicians, and smugglers, people traffickers and jihadist groups are able to exploit the population.

THE LIBYAN MAZE THE PATH TO ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF THE RECONCILIATION PROCESS

THE LIBYAN MAZE THE PATH TO ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF THE RECONCILIATION PROCESS , 2018

Edited by Lorenzo Marinone 2 Libya at crossroads: between elections and instability by Lorenzo Marinone (Ce.S.I)………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..3 Will the December elections succeed in bringing together a divided country like Libya? By Rhiannon Smith (Libya-Analysis)…………………………………………………………12 Why Europe struggles to develop a concerted approach to Libya? By Lisa Watanabe (Center for Security Studies, ETH)……………………………………………………….14 Can economy be the key to revive the Libyan reconciliation process? By Tim Eaton (Chatham House)……………………………………………………………………………………… .16

The situation in Libya

2019

As written for the Model Regional Cooperation of Rhodes MRC 2019. Co-writer: Anastasios Koumpogiannis