Climate change and infectious disease risk management: a localised health security perspective (original) (raw)
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Climate Change and Infectious Diseases; Evidence from Highly Vulnerable Countries
Iranian Journal of Public Health, 2020
Background: Climate change is an alarming challenge for humanity at large due to its mediating role in emergence and spread of infectious diseases like cholera and malaria. This study was conducted to examine the effect of climate change and some socio-economic factors on incidence of infectious diseases. Methods: We used country level panel data over the 1990-2017 period using panel ARDL-PMG technique on highly affected countries from climate change. Results: There is a long run co-integrating relationship among climate change, socio-economic factors and prevalence of infectious diseases. Climate change, as measured by the temperature, is contributing to the spread of infectious diseases. Conclusion: This is the first study giving evidence of the impact of climate change on incidence of infectious diseases as can be seen from highly vulnerable countries to climate change. It is recommended to improve the level of education along with public health and town planning to reduce the in...
The health impacts of climate change: a study of cholera in Tanzania
Increased temperatures and changes in patterns of rainfall as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail serious consequences for human health, including the risk of diarrheal diseases. Indeed, there is strong evidence that temperature and rainfall patterns affect the disease pattern. This paper presents the first study that links the incidence of cholera to environmental and socioeconomic factors and uses that relationship to predict how climate change will affect the incidence of cholera. Specifically, the paper integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in , and uses socioeconomic data to control for impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. Based on these results we estimate the number and costs of additional cholera cases and deaths that can be attributed to climate change by year 2030 in Tanzania. The analyses are based on primary data collected from the Ministry of Health, Tanzania, and the Tanzania Meteorological Agency. The result shows a significant relationship between cholera cases and temperature and predicts an increase in the initial risk ratio for cholera in Tanzania in the range of 23 to 51 percent for a 1 degree Celsius increase in annual mean temperature. The cost of reactive adaptation to cholera attributed to climate change impacts by year 2030 in Tanzania is projected to be in the range of 0.02 to 0.09 percent of GDP for the lower and upper bounds respectively. Total costs, including loss of lives are estimated in the range of 1.4 to 7.8 percent of GDP by year 2030. Lastly, costs of additional cholera cases and deaths attributed to climate change impacts in Tanzania by the year 2030 largely exceed the costs of preventive measures such as household chlorination.
Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis
Environment and Development Economics, 2007
We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are close related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants, and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the time and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduced infectious diseases, even if that is exacerbated by climate change.
Introduction: Climate is changing and this is a fact. The impact on health is serious. There are many devastating outcomes from such changes. Injuries, displacements, Food security, changes in diseases pattern and return of diseases were eliminated. In already vulnerable communities and countries climate change effect is an added burden which accelerate the gloomy end to these communities. Objective: Is to attract attention of the stakeholders in both sides of the economic world rich and poor countries to seriously considering the impact of climate change and work together for solutions. Discussion: The responsibility of the causes led and leading to climate change is lying on the shoulders of the richer countries being an industrialized countries, however the price is paid by the developing or the poorer countries. The reason mainly could be attributed to their limited coping mechanisms. The events explained by climate change lead these countries to remain in the vicious cycle of poverty. Conclusion: a global action and intervention that consider both sides of the world is crucial. Inclusion of the developing countries in the proposed solutions could contribute in enhancements of such proposals. Further researches are required to address link of the climatic changes and wars specially in the flaming world we live in today.
BMC Public Health, 2024
Introduction Climate change is contributing to increase the frequency and severity of climate disasters in Mozambique, leading, since 2019, to extensive damage to infrastructure and displacement 1.3 million people. Aim of this study is to evaluate baseline preparedness to vector-borne and water-borne infections among households and internally displaced people exposed to climate disasters in Mozambique. Methods This was a cross-sectional, community-based survey assessing the preparedness to infectious diseases outbreaks among people exposed to climate disasters in six districts in Mozambique. Structured form was delivered via face-to-face between October 15th and November 7th, 2022. Study outcome was defined as a seven-point score of preparedness to infectious disease outbreaks. Multivariable analysis of the score was conducted using Conway-Maxwell-Poisson regression. Results This study included 2,140 households and 11,239 people, with IDPs accounting for 30% of them. Overall, 1,186 (55.4%) households were overcrowded. Median score of preparedness was 3 points (IQR 2-4). At multivariable analyses, districts with low preparedness were Montepuez and Mueda. Higher preparedness was associated with family planning (p < 0.0001), access to primary education for all children living in the household (p < 0.001) and possession of a birth certificate for all children aged < 5y (p < 0.0001), while preparedness was heterogeneous among the districts (p < 0.05). Households composed by IDPs were not associated with a lower preparedness score. Conclusions In climate-vulnerable communities in Mozambique, households practicing family planning, providing access to primary education and birth certificate for all children were less vulnerable to water-borne and vector-borne infectious disease outbreaks. Being family planning and childcare primarily performed by women, our findings can
Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health: Bangladesh Perspective
2011
Abstract: A study was conducted in Rangamati, Sylhet and Faridpur districts over the period 1972-2002 to observe the impacts of climate change on public health especially on Malaria. The climate related variables included were temperature, rainfall and relative humidity.
The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2011
Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania and uses socioeconomic data to control for the impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. The results show a significant relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera. For a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase the initial relative risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates on financing and planning adaptation.
Diouf et al., 2024
This study examines the relationship between climate change and public health in Haiti, a country already facing socioeconomic challenges. The well-being of Haiti’s vulnerable population is expected to be further affected by climate change, leading to an increase in vector-borne, water-borne, and heat-related diseases. As one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change effects,Haiti is currently experiencing an increase in vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and chikungunya, as well as water-borne diseases and emerging zoonotic outbreaks. This study aims to improve planning, decision-making, and responses to public health challenges by utilizing health data, climatic information, and impact models. The methodology involves the creation of a comprehensive climate and health database to uncover detailed spatial-temporal relationships on a national scale. By evaluating disease indicators from historical periods (1950-2014) and future projections (2015-2100) using the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) from the multi-model ensemble meanof theCMIP6models, targetdiseases, includingmalaria,meningitis,dengue,and heat-sensitive chronicdiseases are assessed.Our resultshighlight adecrease inrainfall and a strong increase in temperatures, especially within western Haiti under the extremeSSP585 scenario. The ability of the impactmodels to simulate the seasonality and spatial distribution of malaria incidence, dengue and heatwaves was performed. The analysis of risks related to climate-sensitive diseases’ climatic parameters shows that Haiti’s west and central regions aremostly exposed to vector-borne and waterbornediseases. Models predict a decrease in malaria casesdueto climate changewith hot temperatures and a decline in rainfall, while dengue transmission patterns may undergo changes. These findings will inform the implementation of context-specific early-warning systems and adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive diseases while acknowledging the challenges of integrating climate-altered data into health policies.
Climate Change and Infectious Diseases
New South Wales Public Health Bulletin, 2007
When estimating or modelling the health impacts of climate change, there are many uncertainties due to incon-sistencies and gaps in global knowledge about climate vari-ability, lack of reliable data across populations, poor applicability of global models to local scenarios and incom- ...
Annual Review of Public Health, 2011
The rapid growth in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including injury and poor mental health, in low- and middle-income countries and the widening social gradients in NCDs within most countries worldwide pose major challenges to health and social systems and to development more generally. As Earth's surface temperature rises, a consequence of human-induced climate change, incidences of severe heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods will increase and become more severe. These changes will bring heightened risks to human survival and will likely exacerbate the incidence of some NCDs, including cardiovascular disease, some cancers, respiratory health, mental disorders, injuries, and malnutrition. These two great and urgent contemporary human challenges—to improve global health, especially the control of NCDs, and to protect people from the effects of climate change—would benefit from alignment of their policy agendas, offering synergistic opportunities to improve population and pl...