Integrated MAED–MARKAL-based analysis of future energy scenarios of Nepal (original) (raw)
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Sustainable energy demand analysis for Nepal 2009-2050
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Understanding energy crisis in nepal: Assessment of the country's energy demand and supply in 2016
2017 International Electrical Engineering Congress (iEECON)
The world is facing an enormous challenge to provide sufficient quantity of clean energy to its burgeoning population. Energy is a fundamental asset for enabling socio economic development and poverty eradication in any country. Nepal has been suffering from the chaotic energy crisis for about a decade now despite having a potential for generating 43,000 MW of hydroelectricity, 2,100 MW of solar power, and 3,000 MW of wind power. A normal life of its citizens is being crippled with long hours of load shedding and never ending queues in front of the gas stations reflecting the state of the energyhungry country. This paper gives a perspective on the energy crisis in Nepal in order to point out how serious the problem is and also presents some ways how to obtain an immediate relieve through the use of green energy commodities. In addition, the strategic advantages to potential investors are explored that encourage investments into national priority projects facilitated by the progressive policies of the Government of Nepal.
Demand Side Management for Electricity in Nepal : Need analysis using LEAP Modeling Framework
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Fuel consumption share varies according to different sectors like residential, industrial, commercial etc. Traditional fuel is predominant fuel source in case of developing countries like Nepal. Energy efficiency in these fuels are very low compared to other fuels. Use of fossil fuels is also increasing in Nepal which are imported. These fuels cause economic burden in country in addition to environmental problems like CO2 emissions. Hence, switching over the fuels with least environmental problems, efficient energy is a requisite in today’s world. Energy efficiency plays a critical role in energy policy debates because meeting our future energy needs comes down to only two options: increasing supply or decreasing the demand for energy. In due time, the demand is bound to increase due to increase in population, income growth and other factors. The switch-over from traditional fuels and fossil fuels to electricity is imminent in very near future in Nepal. In Nepal, the generation bein...
Journal of the Institute of Engineering, 2016
The reliable future energy demand projection is an essential requirement for planning and formulating the policy to provide sustainable energy supply in the country. The purpose of this study is to project the sectoral energy demand up to 2030 under different anticipated growth scenarios of national economy. To project future energy demand, the end use industrial sector energy demand model based on Longrange Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) framework has been formulated with four GDP growth scenarios namely business as usual (BA), low growth (LG), medium growth (MG) and high growth (HG) respectively. Further, the study has illustrated that among the industrial sub-sectors, the energy demand of food beverage and tobacco, textile & leather, chemical rubber & plastics, mechanical engineering & metallurgy and wood products & papers will be increased while the electrical engineering and products subsector will be decreased. Among the anticipated scenarios, the BA scenario has been selected as a reference scenario for policy measures. In the policy scenario, it has been found that the total sectoral energy demand and electricity demand can be reduced from 1.78 and 2.42 times of the base year demand in BA scenario to 1.53 and 2.24 times of the base year demand in 2030 respectively. The projected sectoral energy demand along with demanding fuels will support the sustainable national energy planning process of the country for days to come.
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Abstract Nepal has been suffering from a serious energy crisis for decades. It has severely affected its economic, social and political developments. Owing to the continuously evolving energy situation in Nepal, and the recent progress in renewable energy technologies, this study aims to provide an up to date perspective on the current energy crisis in Nepal. In particular, the current energy production and consumption profiles are reviewed, and the main factors contributing to a widening gap between the energy supply and demand are identified. These factors concern delayed and overpriced hydropower projects, outdated and insufficient energy infrastructure, transmission and distribution losses, energy theft, deficient energy management, lack of energy conservation, low efficiency of equipment, unsustainable energy pricing strategies and unsatisfying energy market regulations. Other essential factors worsening the energy crisis can be attributed to specific geographical and geopolitical problems, the strong dependence on energy imports, and inadequate exploitation of the vast amounts of renewable energy resources. The status of existing and planned large hydropower projects is summarized. The recent policies and investment initiatives of the Nepalese government to support green and sustainable energy are discussed. Furthermore, a long-term outlook on the energy situation in Nepal is outlined using the energy modeling software LEAP in order to show how to exploit the tremendous renewable energy resources in Nepal. Our findings suggest that renewable resources are crucial not only for mitigating the present energy crisis, but also to ultimately provide energy independence for Nepal by establishing reliable and secure sources of energy.
Future Energy Supply Possibilities and their Implications on Nepal’s Energy Security
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment
Nepal is 100% dependent on imported petroleum products as it has no as yet viable proven reserve. The import of petroleum is increasing at an alarming rate (15.2% annually) which is creating not only a burden on the national economy but also raising the issue of energy supply security and environmental degradation. In this study, eleven distinct significant indicators have been used to evaluate the energy security status of the country. Since there is no such detailed quantification of indicators carried out in previous research, this study can be a significant input to policymakers and planners. It also explores the policy intervention measures to improve energy security status in the context of a developing country that is increasingly dependent on imported commercial fuels. Five different scenarios have been developed considering 2017 as a base year and 2040 as an end year with different economic growth rates 4.5%, 7.2% and 9.2% as main driving parameter. Two additional policy in...
Energy consumption projection of Nepal: An econometric approach
Renewable Energy, 2014
In energy dependent economies, energy consumption is often linked with the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Energy intensity, defined herewith, as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption (TPE) to the GDP, is a useful concept for understanding the relation between energy demand and economic development. The scope of this article is to assess the future primary energy consumption of Nepal, and the projection is carried out along with the formulation of simple linear logarithmic energy consumption models. This initiates with a hypothesis that energy consumption is dependent with the national macro-economic parameters. To test the hypothesis, nexus between energy consumption and possible determinant variables are examined. Status of energy consumption between the period of 1996 and 2009, and for the same period, growth of economic parameters are assessed. Three scenarios are developed differing from each other on the basis of growth rates of economic indicators: total GDP, GDPagriculture, GDP-trade, GDP-industry, and other variables including growth in private consumptions, population, transport vehicles numbers, prices of fossil fuels etc. Scenarios are: Business as Usual (BAU), Medium Growth Scenario (MGS) and High Growth Scenario (HGS). Energy consumption in all the sectors and for all fuel types are not statistically correlated with every economic parameters tested in the assessment. Hence, the statistically correlated models are included in the prognosis of energy consumption. For example, the TPE consumption and electricity consumption, both are significantly dependent with the total GDP and population growth. Likewise, fuel wood consumption is significantly dependent with the growth in rural population and private consumptions. In BAU the estimated electricity consumption in 2030 would be 7.97 TWh, which is 3.47 times higher than that of 2009. In MGS, the total electricity consumption in 2030 is estimated to increase by a factor of 5.71 compared to 2009. Likewise, in HGS, electricity consumption would increase by 10-fold until 2030 compared to 2009, demanding installed capacity of power plant at 6600 MW, which is only from hydro power and other centralised system.
IEEE PES Nepal Chapter International Conference on “Role of Energy for Sustainable Social Development in ‘New-normal’ Era” 28-29 December 2020, 2020
Nepal's electricity sector has been suffering from an energy deficit for several years. With the commissioning of the number of hydropower projects in the next few years, substantial surplus energy would be generated in the Integrated Nepal Power System (INPS). It would, therefore require proper planning and strategy for optimal utilization of electricity. This research presents the load forecast for the next 17 years using an econometric model where future demand is a function of certain demand driving variables for each consumer category in Nepal's electricity sector. The models treat consumers sector as domestic, industrial, commercial , and irrigation, differently as the demand determining variables. The demand during the year 2017 A.D has been considered as the base year for the base case, low growth case and high growth case scenarios. These scenarios are the variability in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for different groups of consumers, including new consumer number. The forecast was done up to the year 2035 A.D. This study also presents the energy absorption of Phukot Karnali and Betan Karnali hydroelectric power project in INPS using the platform, Wien Automated System Planning Package (WASP).
Nepal is a Himalayan country having a high possibility of renewable energy. Despite the possibility of renewable energy, the development pace of the country tends to be slow and which has affected the socioeconomic development. Particularly, the development of the energy projects in the country has been affected by the current policies and practices of the government of the country. In this paper,the current energy outlook of Nepal has been summarized along with its related recent policies issued by the government for the development of the energy sectorsin the country and forwarded the suggestions regarding the current issues inherent in the energy sectors development in Nepal.To solve the current issues of the country, Nepal needs to consider electricity demand management and transmission line distribution issues soon and review the existing policies andinstitutional arrangements for the promotion of the private sector investment. Moreover,access to finance for investment and people's awareness regarding the use of clean energyis the key barriers to the development of the energy sectors in the country.