Between Fear and Hope: Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia (original) (raw)
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Singapore Economic Review, 2021
Since its launch in late 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become a significant factor in shaping China's economic and diplomatic relations with the world. China's increasing clout presents opportunities as well as challenges, especially for the developing economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) which constitute major sites for investment and trade alongside the BRI routes. This special issue examines whether and to what extent China's economic ascendancy has impacted the proposed ASEAN Economic Community and the respective nations in the region. It deals with this question by grounding the analysis along three themes-institutions at a regional level, industry/sector, and particular ASEAN countries' economic relationship with China. A total of 12 articles are presented to illuminate the state of affairs at the regional level and in specific ASEAN economies. They point to the importance of managing trade and investment flows stemming from China's increasingly sophisticated national firms. This in turn hinges on forging 'rules of the game' at both the multilateral and bilateral levels, which potentially leads to mutually beneficial industrialization and long-term wealth creation. In addition to summarizing key findings of the articles in the special issue, this introductory essay examines some of the key themes confronting ASEAN in its engagement with the BRI such as institutions, global supply chains, and economic strategies. It concludes with a brief discussion on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the BRI in Southeast Asia, and on ways to enhance regional integration.
China’s ‘Belt and Road’ and Southeast Asia: Challenges and Prospects
JATI: Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, 2015
In 2013 Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Together, both development initiatives promise to deepen China’s economic connections with the world’s key growth regions including Southeast Asia through the development of infrastructural megaprojects and increased trade. Domestically, the “Belt and Road” is envisioned to be a key driver of growth for China’s new normal of single-digit economic growth. For Southeast Asia, these megaprojects promise to catalyze and reshape the region’s next several decades of economic development. This paper will examine the prospects for accelerated economic growth and regional economic integration promised by the “Belt and Road” projects, as well as the social, political, and environmental challenges that can be expected from the implementation of these megaprojects.
The Belt and Road: China’s “Community of Destiny” for Southeast Asia?
2020
is an associate research fellow at Ifri's Center for Asian Studies, specializing in Southeast Asian politics, geostrategic affairs and regional integration. She is the author of numerous books and articles, including La Chine e(s)t le monde : essai sur la sinomondialisation (with Emmanuel Dubois de Prisque-Odile Jacob, 2019) and « l'Asie du Sud-Est prise au piège » (Perrin, 2009). She is currently the lead researcher of a work-package on ASEAN in the CRISEA (Competing Regional Integration in Southeast Asia) consortium, an interdisciplinary research project funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Program.
Journal of Contemporary China, 2019
Disputing research that depicts weak states getting overwhelmed by China’s financial might, this article argues that the political elites in a relatively weak and small state such as Malaysia are adept in engaging with a rising China to advance key projects, furthering their own agenda. In the case of Malaysia, the eventual outcome of this interaction is dependent on three key conditions: fulfilment of Malaysia’s longstanding pro-ethnic Malay policy, a mutual vision between the state and federal authorities, and advancement of geopolitical interests for both Malaysia and China. The article puts forward a typology illustrating various possible outcomes to examine the interconnections between key players at a time of Chinese ascendancy.
Journal of Contemporary China , 2019
Disputing research that depicts weak states getting overwhelmed by China's financial might, this article argues that the political elites in a relatively weak and small state such as Malaysia are adept in engaging with a rising China to advance key projects, furthering their own agenda. In the case of Malaysia, the eventual outcome of this interaction is dependent on three key conditions: fulfilment of Malaysia's longstanding pro-ethnic Malay policy, a mutual vision between the state and federal authorities, and advancement of geopolitical interests for both Malaysia and China. The article puts forward a typology illustrating various possible outcomes to examine the interconnections between key players at a time of Chinese ascendancy.
The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2022
The past few years have witnessed that the success (or failure) of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) depends to a large extent upon engagement with and responses from recipient countries. The article explores the impact of Southeast Asian countries' domestic socio-political factors on their foreign policymaking and BRI projects in Southeast Asia. Based on comparative political sociology, the article develops a conceptual typology of foreign policymaking and an explanatory typology of socio-political risks, both of which are further applied to studying the socio-political risks that BRI projects entail in the four maritime Southeast Asian countries of Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore. The empirical study suggests that the Philippines' 'populist' type of foreign policymaking creates the highest level of risks-both political and societal-for BRI projects and that Singapore's 'procedural' type produces the lowest. Malaysia's 'arbitrary' type and Indonesia's 'democratic' type, meanwhile, generate medium-level political or societal risks. These findings have important policy implications for Chinese-funded overseas projects.
China's "Belt and Road" in Southeast Asia: Constructing the Strategic Narrative in Singapore
Asian Perspective, 2019
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is viewed by most as symbolic of a new era of Chinese initiative and ambition. But while much attention has focused on how the BRI fits into China's-and specifically Xi Jinping's-grand narrative of national rejuvenation, less has been said about regional narratives-that is, the narratives of China's target audiences. Toward addressing this oversight, I consider the case of Singapore in relation to BRI. Specifically, I give attention to strategic narratives that offer analytic windows into the complex relationships being negotiated between China and Southeast Asian states. Strategic narratives, as instruments of policy, also play roles in constructing the strategic space in which BRI enters, with implications for the opportunities and constraints faced by China in Southeast Asia. China's Belt and Road initiative (BRi) is viewed By most as symBoliC of a new era of Chinese initiative and ambition. Much of the attention has focused on how BRI fits into China's grand narrative of national rejuvenation, or what Xi Jinping refers to as the "great national rejuve-nation of China's dream." Those working in the field of international relations have typically emphasized how this aspirational narrative serves a larger grand strategy-that is, China's interest in expanded geopo-litical influence, security, and recognition, especially vis-à-vis Western powers. 1 Callahan (2016) may offer the representative assessment. As he puts it, "The goal is to weave neighboring countries into a Sino-centric network of economic, political, cultural, and security relations. Beijing's grand strategy thus is to reconstitute the regional order-and eventually global order-with new governance ideas, norms, and rules." "New projects" like BRI, along with "new institutions" like the Asian
Introduction to the Special Issue—China’s Belt and Road Initiative: the View from East Asia
East Asia, 2019
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), formerly known as One Belt One Road (OBOR), has emerged as one of the top priorities for Chinese President Xi Jinping ever since he unveiled the initiative in 2013. This special issue surveys the reception of BRI in East Asia. As China's immediate neighborhood, this region will play an important role in determining whether Beijing's signature project will succeed in the mid-to long term. However, research has thus far mostly focused on BRI's reception in Central Asia and (Eastern) Europe. In this introduction, we first provide an overview of the literature by identifying three main strands of interpretation on BRI, namely those focusing on geoeconomics, on geopolitics, and on international norms as well as order. Next, we provide a review of the contemporary research on both Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian perceptions of and policy responses to BRI. Finally, we discuss research gaps in the literature and provide an overview of case studies and findings in this special issue. We conclude by identifying recurring themes and characteristics in East Asian responses to BRI.
The Complex Interdependence of China's Belt and Road Initiative in the Philippines
Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies
Complex interdependence refers to the multiple channels of interaction and agenda in interstate relations, which involve domestic (public and private) stakeholders and nonmilitary issues. Since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) came into being, most analyses have largely focused on infrastructure development. The BRI not only has the potential to impact a host government's socioeconomic agenda but also its overall bilateral relationship with China. It is therefore imperative to measure the progress and prospects of China's Belt and Road projects in the Philippines, in line with Beijing's strategic goal to deepen complex interdependence with partner-states, against the BRI's five major dimensions of cooperation: (a) policy coordination, (b) infrastructure development and connectivity, (c) trade and investment facilitation, (d) financial coordination and integration, and (e) people-to-people ties and connectivity. These, together with the examination of China's BRI projects in other Asian countries as modes of comparison, are crucial in assessing probable outcomes in the Philippines. The paper includes policy recommendations based on possible pitfalls and risks that may hamper the advancement of the Belt and Road projects in the Philippines and Sino-Philippine bilateral interaction.
China's Belt and Road Initiative: The View from East Asia
East Asia, 2019
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), formerly known as One Belt One Road (OBOR), has emerged as one of the top priorities for Chinese President Xi Jinping ever since he unveiled the initiative in 2013. This special issue surveys the reception of BRI in East Asia. As China's immediate neighborhood, this region will play an important role in determining whether Beijing's signature project will succeed in the mid-to long term. However, research has thus far mostly focused on BRI's reception in Central Asia and (Eastern) Europe. In this introduction, we first provide an overview of the literature by identifying three main strands of interpretation on BRI, namely those focusing on geoeconomics, on geopolitics, and on international norms as well as order. Next, we provide a review of the contemporary research on both Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian perceptions of and policy responses to BRI. Finally, we discuss research gaps in the literature and provide an overview of case studies and findings in this special issue. We conclude by identifying recurring themes and characteristics in East Asian responses to BRI.