Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone (original) (raw)
Related papers
2019
Este artículo explora los efectos de los ciclones tropicales en la actividad económica de los establecimientos de los sectores manufacturero y de servicios en México. El análisis se basa en datos panel que combinan la actividad económica a nivel de establecimiento con la exposición a ciclones tropicales a nivel municipal y periodicidad mensual para estimar un modelo de rezagos distribuidos. Los resultados muestran que, después de un ciclón tropical, el establecimiento de manufactura promedio experimenta un efecto de corto plazo negativo de magnitud pequeña sobre el crecimiento de la producción. Para los establecimientos del sector servicios, el efecto es pequeño y negativo sobre el crecimiento de los ingresos, mientras que positivo, de mayor magnitud y más persistente en el crecimiento de los gastos operativos. Los datos desagregados permiten analizar la heterogeneidad de los efectos entre los sectores de manufactura y servicios.
Report for RegiReport 1: Investigating the Impacts of Disaster Events in Regions: an Australian Study
Disaster events have spatial impacts, environmentally, socially and economically. Such impacts often play out at a regional level, defined both territorially as well as in relational terms (Macleod and Jones, 2007). Territory refers to spatiality, while the relational dimension addresses their connectivity (Goodwin, 2012, p. 1182). The interaction between these dimensions produces regions whose spatial boundaries may be unclear (Massey, 2004, p. 3). Hence, a defining feature in analysis is to explain both ‘the scalar and territorial dimensions of particular political practices’ (Goodwin, 2012, p. 1189). Moreover, the scalar politics that surround regionally focused practices and policies may involve diverse actors each contributing to strategic regional economic and social agenda (MacKinnon, 2011). These themes will be explored by considering the ways regional governance arrangements can result in partial and incomplete approaches to such as disaster events. The purpose of this report is to formulate a research design that enables an understanding of this analytical framework. This step requires a consideration of the makeup of regional economies, focusing on the value chains and networks in play. We suggest that this step enables us to begin to understand the opportunities for and barriers to policy initiatives in relation to disaster events.
Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies
Tropical cyclones are among the costliest disasters in the world, with reported losses amounting to billions of US dollars on an annual basis. To reduce the impact of disasters including cyclones, Zimbabwe signed the Sendai Framework whose Target C is aimed at reducing the direct economic losses of disasters. Under the direction of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), an open-ended intergovernmental expert working group (OIEWG) developed a simple methodology for estimating direct disaster-economic loss. Therefore, this study tested the applicability of the OIEWG methodology in assessing the direct economic losses induced by Tropical Cyclone Idai (TCI) in Zimbabwe. The results revealed that TCI inflicted huge losses in most sectors of the economy, notably the housing, agriculture and the critical infrastructure. The sectoral analysis approach of the OIEWG methodology worked well in distinguishing direct and indirect loses as well as in underlining the need t...
Climate research, 2009
Zusammenfassung: Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulate the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.4. The results show that in the base case, the direct economic damage of tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change amounts to $19 billion globally (almost the same level as the baseline (current) global damage of tropical cyclones) in the year 2100, while the ratio to ...
The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan
Natural Hazards, 2010
This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to tropical cyclones. However, there are additional economic costs when sustained wind speeds are higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h), a level that generally will lead to a precautionary cessation of many human activities. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the paper calculates the potential economic costs for the year 2085 under a climate change scenario with a linear one-per cent yearly increase in CO 2 . Using a spatial distribution of economic activity in Japan, it is possible to forecast which parts of the country are likely to experience the highest loss risk.
International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2017
Cyclones are relatively instantaneous shocks where arguably most of the important consequences take place in the first few weeks or months. In this article, we construct destruction proxies of wind exposure and storm surge damages and use satellite measures of nightlight intensity to investigate the short-term impact of tropical cyclones using the case study of Cyclone Pam, which struck the South Pacific Islands in March 2015. Using the unaffected islands as a control group, our regression analysis reveals that initially the storm reduced economic activity in the affected islands by as much as 111%, but by the seventh month there were positive boosts to nightlight intensity. By the ninth month this resulted in cumulative net increases in activities related to night-time electricity usage. More generally, our results suggest that there is likely considerable temporal heterogeneity in the response of areas affected by tropical cyclones and demonstrates the potential of using nightlight imagery to assess the short-term economic impact of tropical storms, and possibly other extreme event phenomena, in a relatively timely manner.
Assessing the impact of tropical cyclones on economic sectors in Costa Rica, Central America
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2024
Tropical cyclones (TC) pose a persistent natural hazard to Costa Rica. Exposure to natural hazards, such as mass movements and floods, is compounded by a growing urban population and inadequate land use planning. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economic impacts of TC of Costa Rica from Hurricane Joan in 1988 to Hurricane Eta in 2020, assessing the impact by municipality and economic sector using baseline information of the Ministry of National Planning and Economic Policy. According to the study, road infrastructure (933.8 US million), agriculture (280.5 US million), river rehabilitation (153.96 US million), housing 98.26 (US million), and health (81.74 US million) were among the sectors most severely affected by TC over the past 30 years. The Pacific basin municipalities in Costa Rica were found to be the most vulnerable, primarily due to the indirect impacts of TC. The study's results offer useful information on the economic sectors and municipalities that are most exposed from TC in Costa Rica and provide a replicable methodology for other regions and countries facing similar tropical phenomena.
Risk Analysis, 2010
A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya. (1) The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.
2010 Webersick Esteban Shibayama economic damage typhoons.pdf
This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to tropical cyclones. However, there are additional economic costs when sustained wind speeds are higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h), a level that generally will lead to a precautionary cessation of many human activities. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the paper calculates the potential economic costs for the year 2085 under a climate change scenario with a linear one-per cent yearly increase in CO 2 . Using a spatial distribution of economic activity in Japan, it is possible to forecast which parts of the country are likely to experience the highest loss risk.