A Spatio Temporal Study of Rainfall Distribution in Ahemdnagar District (original) (raw)
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Statistical analysis of rainfall pattern and trend of Parbhani district, Maharashtra
International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, 2024
Rainfall regime is perhaps the most important factor in determining the potential productivity of various agricultural activities. To analyze, the extent of variation in the rainfall pattern in the study area, the short term time series weather data was used for a period of 10 years i.e. from 2013-2023 and the annual rainfall data was obtained from the department of Agrometeorology, College of Agriculture, Vasantrao Naik Matrathwada Krishi Vidyapeeth, Parbhani. The data related to production of crops were collected from Government of Maharashtra statistical database. The statistical descriptive measures namely, mean, standard deviation (SD), Coefficient of variation (CV), Minimum, Maximum, Skewness, Kurtosis have been calculated. Using linear trend, the change in rainfall has been evaluated. It is observed that district receives maximum amount of rainfall that the district receives the maximum amount of rainfall from the southwest monsoon, around 81.61 per cent from June to September, the district receives 17.39 per cent in June and 26.96, 15.33 and 21.93 per cent rainfall in the month of July, August and September, respectively. The rainfall in Parbhani district showed considerable variation from year to year, with both positive and negative deviations from the normal levels with some years experiencing significant deviations from the normal rainfall affecting both surplus and deficit conditions across the prevailing seasons. Monsoonal rainfall is correlated with crop production. The correlation values between crop production and monsoon rainfall give an insight into how dependent each crop is on monsoon rains Pulses like tur, green gram and black gram have higher correlations with monsoon rainfall indicating they are highly sensitive to monsoon variations. Oilseeds like groundnut, sesamum and soybean have relatively low correlations, which may indicate adaptability or the availability of irrigation in growing region. The findings suggest a need for improved rainfall forecasting and adaptive agricultural strategies to mitigate the effects of both years of deficit and years of excessive rainfall. The district experienced periods of excess rainfall and drought-like conditions, leading to an unpredictable agricultural environment.
KN - Journal of Cartography and Geographic Information
Climate-induced risks are very significant in these days and will impact the agriculture crop production because of the change in hydro-climatic condition. Remote sensing and GIS framework provide scientific understanding in practical application systems with the sustainable solution in new climate change reality and support significantly in resilience to mitigate the future risk. The paper deals with long-term (1970-2000) monthly thematic datasets and analyzed the seasonal (kharif, rabi and zaid) pattern of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and aridity index to scale of district level of India. Additionally, we have used the predicted (2025) monthly precipitation anomalies data (climate change scenario) to examine the seasonal precipitation pattern at the district level of India. The major agriculture crops (rice, wheat, and maize) for the year 2005 were also evaluated during those seasons. Such analysis gives better understanding and knowledge of district-wise seasonal spatial pattern at country level (India) of climate stress, crop water demand and suitably applied to make strategies/ synergic approach toward agriculture resilience. The long-term seasonal aridity index pattern analysis varies significantly throughout India during kharif, rabi and zaid seasons which were manifested by cropping pattern adopted by farmers as per land potentiality. Several districts in some of the states of India receive adequate precipitation during kharif season and manifest low aridity index in rabi and zaid season which can be recommended for rainwater conservation at the watershed level to boost the agriculture crop production. Farmer's suicide hot spot districts in the arid and semiarid regions need policy intervention to develop a concrete plan including integrated watershed management strategies with traditional ecological knowledge for long-term sustainable management for climate resilience because these districts showed significantly low aridity index value in all seasons. The remote sensing and GIS-based evaluation/results of this study in conjugation with in situ ancillary datasets will support significantly to address the climate-induced risk of farmers to achieve sustainability in food security, enhancing the livelihood, eradication of poverty and magnifying the farm household resilience.
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Maharashtra State, India (Asia)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
Examining the manifestations and effects of climate change is critically dependent on the spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological variables, particularly in areas where agriculture depends on rainfall. The present study analyses the change in temperature and rainfall using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator and also identifies the variations in rainfall by using Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). The main purpose of this study is to assess the variation in climatic variable (temperature and rainfall) across the regions of Maharashtra over 50 years (1968-2017) which might be helpful to identify strategies that can aid in addressing the consequences of extreme climate events in the future and in formulating appropriate region-specific strategies. The trend of rainfall and temperature series for the kharif and rabi season revealed a significant increasing trend for maximum and minimum temperature, however nonsignificant decreasing trend for kharif and rabi rainfall. The RAI value ...
Mausam, 2023
Rainfall is an important part of hydrological cycle and any alteration in its pattern influence water resources. In Punjab, the monsoon season of 77 days extending during three months July, August and September, receives rainfall at an average rate of 6 mm/day. In the present study, monsoon rainfall data for three parts of the state, viz., the north eastern region (1984-2020), Central plain region (1970-2020) and the south western region (1977-2020) of the state have been analyzed using non-parametric tests, i.e., descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope. Though, the duration of the monsoon season has increased over the last two decades at 0.8 day/year, the rate of rainfall has decreased as rainfall has been less than normal during 17 of the past 20 years. The monsoon rainfall analysis for the five decades indicates a significant decrease in rainfall at 0.7 mm/year which has mainly been due to a decline in rainfall in the north eastern region. The Sen’s slope value of -4.77 (Ballowal) and -0.60 (Bathinda) indicate a decreasing trend of rainfall in the region. The decreasing trend in rainfall received during the July-August months with Sen’s slope values ranging between -0.04 to -2.50 and -0.24 to -3.14, indicates that the months which contribute ~70 percent to total rainfall are not a good signal for the agriculture sector in the state.
Current Science, 2022
The monsoon rainfall variability in semi-arid regions affects all economic activities in general and agriculture in particular. The present study, therefore, analyses monsoon rainfall variability and its connection with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and agriculture in the semi-arid region of Maharashtra, India during 1980–2014. Linear correlation and regression analysis were carried out to evaluate the role of ENSO and IOD in rainfall variability. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized cropped productivity index (SCPI) and standardized crop area index (SCAI) were used to compare the agro-meteorological variability. The dependency of agricultural cropped area on rainfall was verified using satellite data (NDVI). The El Niño events and positive phase of IOD were mainly responsible for below-average rainfall over the study region. This highlights the need to incorporate the ENSO and IOD for precise forecasting of monsoon rainfall. Rainfall variability (up to 33%) over the study basins causes meteorological droughts and eventually results in agricultural droughts. The agricultural productivity of rainfed as well as irrigated crops was significantly affected by rainfall variability. Particularly, during the severe meteorological droughts (1985–86, 2002–03 and 2012), agricultural productivity and cropped area were significantly reduced. Under the future climate change scenario, a rise in temperature will further add to the already difficult agricultural water management challenge. Therefore, agronomists and water resources managers have to design a judicial plan which can mitigate the water scarcity and sustain agricultural yield even in warming conditions.
Rainfall Characteristics in Ahmednagar District of Maharashtra State
International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 2021
Rainfall is one of the vital form of precipitation which affects not only agricultural activity but also entire ecology in any region. Hence rainfall distribution and its trends in district is important to understand water availability and to take decisions for the agricultural activities in area. This research paper is an effort to assess the spatial and temporal rainfall variability of Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra State. Ahmednagar is popularly known as the largest district of Maharashtra with fourteen Talukas. The average annual rainfall of this district is 621 mm with an average of 46 rainy days. In this study the spatial and temporal rainfall distribution of this district is taken in to account. Short-term annual rainfall data are considered from 1998 to 2014. The daily rainfalls of monsoon months of all the fourteen Taluka are analyzed for the year 2015.It was found that spatial and temporal variability is high in the District.
Acta scientific agriculture, 2021
The Haridwar belong to Western Himalayan Region with geographical coordinates are 29.948 deg latitude, 78.160 deg longitude. The trend analysis of rainfall pattern in Haridwar is studied through time series analysis of rainfall for a long period of 20 years. The Kharif crops production is dependent on this rainfall. The average annual rainfall of region during 1999-2018 is 1051mm. and south west monsoon rainfall 925.9 mm observed.. The annual rainfall in year 2007 showing the highest positive rainfall anomaly (2.31) while the other years show rainfall below normal with 2009 Showing the lowest negative rainfall deviation (-2.03). and the South west (1999 to 2018) rainfall of Haridwar District in year 2018 showing the highest positive rainfall anomaly (2.15) while the other years show rainfall below normal with 2009 Showing the lowest negative rainfall deviation (-2.05). The R 2 value-1.408 means that only-140.8 percent variations is observed in twenty years. The maximum South west rainfall recoded 1564 mm in year 2008 and lowest rainfall recoded 439 mm in year 2001. The annual rainfall highest SIAP value 2.31 is observed in year 2007 whereas highest negative value-2.03 is observed in year 2009. The Southwest rainfall highest SIAP value 2.15 observed in year 2018 whereas lowest SIAP value-2.05 observed in year 2009. On the basis, the future forecast of rainfall for a period of ten years from 2019 to 2030 has been observed a negative trend for the coming years. In future, expected annual rainfall may be more in year 2030 observed 1024.9 mm in the district. In future, expected annual rainfall may be less in year 2030 observed 1025 mm in the District. The south west rainfall in the year 2030; expected rainfall may be 922.8 mm. The trends are showing increasing trend pattern from year 2019 to 2030. The trend analysis gives the scenario of current to expected future situation. Water is a vital component for agricultural crops and in abnormal period crops are irrigated by available source viz. tube well, submersible, canal, irrigation channels and other sources. The statistical analysis of annual and south west rainfall of the study area will help to better water management. Today rainfall is not regular fashion so farmers are not more dependent much more on rainfall. The source of irrigation, mechanization and knowledge of current situation of weather and climate change related pattern and adaptation of technology is maintain to crops yield trend.
MAUSAM
Rainfall is an important part of hydrological cycle and any alteration in its pattern influence water resources. In Punjab, the monsoon season of 77 days extending during three months July, August and September, receives rainfall at an average rate of 6 mm/day. In the present study, monsoon rainfall data for three parts of the state, viz., the north eastern region (1984-2020), Central plain region (1970-2020) and the south western region (1977-2020) of the state have been analyzed using non-parametric tests, i.e., descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope. Though, the duration of the monsoon season has increased over the last two decades at 0.8 day/year, the rate of rainfall has decreased as rainfall has been less than normal during 17 of the past 20 years. The monsoon rainfall analysis for the five decades indicates a significant decrease in rainfall at 0.7 mm/year which has mainly been due to a decline in rainfall in the north eastern region. The Se...
MAUSAM, 2021
Long-term rainfall and temperature trends of Bundelkhand region of India were investigated in this study. The annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends as well as seasonal and annual minimum, maximum and mean temperature trends were analysed using monthly data series of 102 years (1901-2002). Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope method were applied for trend detection and trend magnitudes determination. Significantly decreasing trends during monsoon were found with magnitude ranging from 1.049 mm/year to 0.497 mm/year. Both increasing and decreasing trends were found in the annual rainfall. Large fluctuations in temperature trends were observed. Based on the results of rainfall and temperature variability of the region, suitability classes for rain-fed agriculture were delineated. The negative growth rate was found in the cultivated area, production and productivity of paddy, peas and soybean during 1991-2010. Decreasing trends of rainfall and temperature during monsoon and increasing trends of rainfall and temperature in post-monsoon have been affected agricultural production of the region.