Impact of future cigarette smoking scenarios on mortality of the adult population in the United States, 2000-2050. (original) (raw)

Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Declining as Expected (Not as Desired)

American Journal of Public Health, 2004

We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995–2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 = .89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

50-Year Trends in Smoking-Related Mortality in the United States

New England Journal of Medicine, 2013

Background The disease risks from cigarette smoking increased in the United States over most of the 20th century, first among male smokers and later among female smokers. Whether these risks have continued to increase during the past 20 years is unclear. Methods

Long-term trends in cigarette smoking among young U.S. adults

Addictive Behaviors, 1997

Retrospective examination of a national probability sample revealed that young women. particularly those who dropped out of high school, have reached smoking rates as high or higher than subgroups of young men. These results suggest that surveillance. research. and public health programs are needed to address the rapid increase in smoking among young women. 1997

Adult mortality differentials associated with cigarette smoking in the USA

Population Research and Policy …, 1998

Although cigarette smoking has been extensively researched, surprising little knowledge has been produced by demographers using demographic perspectives and techniques. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature by extending a demographic framework to an important behavior for mortality research: cigarette smoking. In earlier works, the authors used nationally-representative data to show that cause of death patterns varied by smoking status and that multiple causes of death characterized smokers moreso than non-smokers. The present work extends previous analysis by estimating smoking status mortality differentials by underlying and multiple causes of death and by age and sex. Data from the 1986 National Mortality Foilowback Sur-vey are related to data from the 1985 and 1987 National Health Interview Survey supplements to assess the smoking-related mortality differentials. We lind that cigarette smoking is associated with higher mortality for all population categories studied, that the smoking mortality differentials vary across the different smoking status categodes and by demographic group, and that the mortality differentials vary according to whether underlying cause or multiple cause pattems of death are examined. Moreover, the multiple cause analysis highlights otherwise obscured smoking-mortality relations and points to the impoftance of respiratory diseases and cancers other than lung cancer for cigarette smoking research.

Excess mortality among cigarette smokers: changes in a 20-year interval

American Journal of Public Health, 1995

OBJECTIVES: This study was undertaken to examine changes in smoking-specific death rates from the 1960s to the 1980s. METHODS: In two prospective studies, one from 1959 to 1965 and the other from 1982 to 1988, death rates from lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and other major smoking-related diseases were measured among more than 200,000 current smokers and 480,000 lifelong non-smokers in each study. RESULTS: From the first to the second study, lung cancer death rates (per 100,000) among current cigarette smokers increased from 26 to 155 in women and from 187 to 341 in men; the increase persisted after current daily cigarette consumption and years of smoking were controlled for. Rates among nonsmokers were stable. In contrast, coronary heart disease and stroke death rates decreased by more than 50% in both smokers and nonsmokers. The all-cause rate difference between smokers and nonsmokers doubled for women but was stable for men. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality (the difference ...

Smoking prevalence: A comparison of two American surveys

Public Health, 2009

Objectives: To compare smoking prevalence estimates from two nationally representative surveys in the USA. Study design: Smoking prevalence estimates derived from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) for the period 1998-2005. Methods: Comparisons according to age (18-34 or 35þ years) and according to smoking frequency (every day or some days). Results: In 1998, the prevalence of smoking in both surveys was nearly identical at 24%. From 1999 to 2005, a divergence occurred in smoking prevalence found by the NSDUH and the NHIS. By 2005, NHIS prevalence had declined to 20.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 20.3-21.5], but the NSDUH estimate was 25.4% (95%CI 24.6-26.2), amounting to 9.1 million more smokers. In 1999, prevalence among 18-34 year olds in the NSDUH was only 18% (95%CI 13-22) higher than that in the NHIS, but that difference had doubled by 2005, when smoking prevalence among 18-34 year olds was 36% (95%CI 30-41) higher in the NSDUH than in the NHIS. NSDUH and NHIS prevalence among 35þ year olds were similar in 1999 and 2001, but the difference was 13% (95%CI 9-18) in 2005. Higher smoking prevalence estimates in the NSDUH were largely due to much higher estimates for someday smoking in that survey, although everyday smoking prevalence among 18-34 year-olds was also higher in the NSDUH than in the NHIS. Conclusions: These results raise doubt about the recent decline in smoking prevalence described by the NHIS. Further investigation of the NSDUH/NHIS discrepancy may lead to better surveys and to a clearer picture of smoking trends in the USA.

Cigarette smoking - United States, 2006-2008 and 2009-2010

Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Surveillance summaries (Washington, D.C. : 2002), 2013

Cigarette smoking is the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States, resulting in approximately 443,000 deaths and $193 billion in direct health-care expenditures and productivity losses each year. Declines in smoking prevalence would significantly impact the health-care and economic costs of smoking. Efforts to accelerate the decline in cigarette smoking include reducing cigarette smoking disparities among specific population groups. Findings from the previous report on cigarette use in the first CDC Health Disparities and Inequalities Report (CHDIR) indicated that progress has been achieved in reducing disparities in cigarette smoking among certain racial/ethnic groups. However, little progress has been made in reducing disparities in cigarette smoking among persons of low socioeconomic status (SES) and low educational attainment.

Tobacco Control and the Reduction in Smoking-Related Premature Deaths in the United States, 1964-2012

JAMA, 2014

IMPORTANCE January 2014 marks the 50th anniversary of the first surgeon general's report on smoking and health. This seminal document inspired efforts by governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector to reduce the toll of cigarette smoking through reduced initiation and increased cessation. OBJECTIVE To model reductions in smoking-related mortality associated with implementation of tobacco control since 1964.