Domino effect analysis in industrial sites (original) (raw)
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In the field of risk analysis, the accidents caused by the domino effects are those inducing the most catastrophic consequences. The consequences of these latter are at various levels and may affect not only the industrial sites, but also people, environment and economy. The probability of the domino effects is increasingly high due to development in industrial complexes, the proximity of such industrial plant, the storage of dangerous substances and the transportation networks. The diversity of these factors is even more critical that they are often related to the emergence of new threats that exploit the malicious acts and human error. Although the literature abounds in several studies on domino effects, it is necessary to deepen their analysis, and pay more attention to their modeling. This article presents the main existing methods and software tools for analysis and modeling of domino effects. A conclusion and perspectives are also proposed.
Method for quantitative assessment of the domino effect in industrial sites
Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2013
Accidents caused by the domino effect or chain of accidents are the most destructive accidents related to industrial sites. The probability of domino effects is increasingly high due to the development of industrial complexes, their proximity, and storage of dangerous substances, transportation networks and population growth. Fires are among the most frequent accidents due to the installations or storage equipment under pressure, and storage of flammable substances. The thermal radiation generated by fire is one of the main factors leading to domino effects and may cause severe consequences on industrial sites, people, structures, environment and economy. This paper presents a methodology for quantitative assessment of domino effect caused by heat radiation on storage areas, a model for the estimation of the human vulnerability is also proposed, individual and societal risk are estimated. The results have proved the importance of domino effect in quantitative risk analysis.
Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2015
High-impact low-probability (HILP) accident scenarios in industrial sites are raising a growing concern. Domino effect was responsible of several catastrophic accidents that affected the chemical and process industry, as well as critical infrastructures for energy as oil refineries. However, there is still a poor agreement on assessment procedures to address escalation hazard resulting in domino scenarios. The present study presents a review of the work done in the last 30 years in the field, and a critical analysis of available tools and knowledge gaps concerning domino effect assessment. The analysis of scientific publications concerning domino effect in the process industry resulted in a database of more than 60 documents, addressing three main issues: past accident analysis, models for equipment damage, risk assessment and safety management of domino scenarios. The methods, models and tools developed make now possible the quantitative assessment of domino scenarios in risk analysis and in safety management of industrial sites. Nevertheless, a number of open points still remain, where existing tools may be improved and uncertainty may be reduced.
Quantitative Assessment of Risk Caused by Domino Accidents in Chemical Process Industries
2018
The use of a quantitative assessment to study the domino accidents can help in deriving a more perceptible and more steadfast result than in that of a qualitative assessment. The data required for the study is derived from various risk assessment studies previously taken up in chemical process industries. The methodology followed in this paper would help in the determination of the maximum-credible accident scenarios (MCAS) from a list of several credible accident scenarios obtained for a definite scope or different escalation scenarios to a secondary accident scenario from a primary accident. The most credible accident scenario is determined based on some potential factors—financial loss, fatalities, ecosystem damage that consider site-specific information for population density, asset density of the site, population distribution, damage area, importance factor, etc. The damage radii and other possible consequences are determined by modeling with the help of a comprehensive process...
2015
The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of ...
Escalation thresholds in the assessment of domino accidental events
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
Domino effect is responsible of several catastrophic accidents that took place in the chemical and process industry. Although the destructive potential of these accidental scenarios is widely recognized, scarce attention was paid to this subject in the scientific and technical literature. Thus, well-assessed procedures for the quantitative evaluation of risk caused by domino effect are still lacking. Moreover, a wide uncertainty is present with respect to escalation criteria, and even in the identification of the escalation sequences that should be taken into account in the analysis of domino scenarios, either in the framework of quantitative risk analysis or of land-use planning.
Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2013
In the field of risks analysis, the domino effect has been documented in technical literature since 1947. The accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial plants. Fire and explosion are among the most frequent primary accidents for a domino effect due to the units under pressure and the storage of flammable and dangerous substances. Heat radiation and overpressure are one of major factors leading to domino effect on industrial sites and storage areas. In this paper we present a method for risk assessment of domino effects caused by heat radiation and overpressure on industrial sites. This methodology is based on the probabilistic models and the physical equations. It allows quantifying the effect of the escalation vectors (physical effects) in industrial plants, the three areas defined in this study may be useful in the choice of safe distances between industrial equipments. The results have proven the importance of domino effect assessment in the framework of risk analysis.
Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2011
The paper presents an inventory, perhaps the most comprehensive till date, of the major processindustry accidents involving 'domino effect'. The inventory includes, among other relevant information, the sequence of accidents that had occurred in each domino episode. The information has been analyzed to identify several patterns which may be useful in further work on understanding domino effect and reducing the probability of its occurrence in future. A concept of 'local domino effect' has been introduced.