Quantitative Risk Assessment of Cascading Events Triggered by Floods (original) (raw)
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A qualitative Natech damage scale for the impact of floods on selected industrial facilities
Natural Hazards, 2008
There is increasing evidence that natural disasters can trigger technological accidents and damage. These so-called Natech accidents can pose a significant risk to regions that are unprepared for responding to them. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre has recognised the risk associated with Natech events and has started systematic research into Natechs and their underlying dynamics. This work investigates the risk associated with the flooding of industrial installations through an analysis of past case histories and using expert judgement. The potential impact of three levels of flood severity on selected industrial facilities storing and/or processing (eco-)toxic, flammable or explosive materials is analysed qualitatively and a scale is developed that links the flood intensity to the level of potential damage. Our analysis indicates that natural disasters have the potential for triggering hazmat releases and other types of technological accidents. Hence, natural disasters should be considered as separate accident-triggering events in the planning, design and operating stages of industrial facilities that process or store hazardous substances. Our work revealed a lack of detailed information on the occurrence of Natech events which indicates not necessarily a scarcity of Natechs but rather a lack of standardised reporting and record keeping.
NaTech Scenarios Caused by Flooding: Evaluation of Accident Frequency by the Use of Fragility Models
Chemical engineering transactions, 2014
Natural events impacting on process plants may lead to severe technological accidents. These events are usually defined as NaTech events (Natural Hazard Triggering Technological Disasters). In order to derive the frequencies of accident scenarios associated to NaTech events for QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) implementation, a critical issue is the availability of equipment vulnerability models. The aim of the present study was to present a vulnerability model for the assessment of failure probability of atmospheric vessels involved in flooding events. The vulnerability model was based both on the severity of the natural event and on the construction features of the equipment. In order to explore the model features and its potentialities, the application to case-studies was carried out analysing an actual industrial layout. The results obtained confirmed that NaTech scenarios caused by floods may have an important influence on risk assessment and management of industrial facilities.
Risk-based Vulnerability Analysis of Chemical Facilities Affected by Flooding
Chemical engineering transactions, 2019
Flooding may affect chemical facilities leading to major accidents (fires, explosions, contamination), following damages to structures and equipment. This type of accident is indicated as natural-technological (Natech) event and occurred in the past, often leading to severe accidental scenarios. Recent studies allowed developing a specific methodology aimed at including Natech scenarios triggered by flooding into Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) analyses for chemical facilities. The methodology relies on the use of specific fragility models for the evaluation of failure probability of process units affected by flooding. Despite these models consider different types of equipment geometries and flooding conditions, they do not account for the presence of safety barriers (e.g., fire-protection systems, bunds, blanketing system). In the present work, the previously developed QRA methodology is improved in order to provide a risk-based vulnerability analysis of Natech scenarios induced...
A short cut methodology for flood-technological risk assessment
This paper discusses some methodological issues characterizing the development of a short-cut methodology for Na-Tech risk assessment, with particular reference to the integration between flood – and technological – related hazards. Actually, flood events can involve industrial areas increasing the level of risk for people, especially in densely populated areas where major hazard factories and flooding areas overlap. In spite of its potential high relevance, risk from industrial accidents triggered by floods has so far received little attention.
Risk Analysis of Natech Accidents Trigged by Lightnings and Floods
Gazi university journal of science part a:engineering and innovation, 2023
Natech Acidents Risk Analysis Lightning Floods Natural Hazard Triggered Technical Accidents (Natech) cause serious loss of life, environment and property and affect life negatively. Risk analysis studies of these accidents are important. In this study, it was aimed to analyze the risk of Natech accidents for Türkiye. Statistical evaluation of Natech accidents was made through various databases for selecting the province and organization where the application will be made. Because of these evaluations, two exemplary gas storage organizations (Organization 1: includes 5 cylindrical tanks of the same volume, Organization 2: includes 4 cylindrical tanks of the same volume and 1 large volume spherical tank) were selected within the scope of the legislation in Erzurum, which stands out in terms of flood and lightning risk. Flood-triggered Natech accidents were analyzed using the preliminary hazard list and Fine-Kinney methods, and lightningtriggered Natech accidents were analyzed through the YILKOMER and RADSAN programs. For Organization 1 and Organization 2, the protection level was determined as 3 and 4, respectively, according to the effectiveness value. While 34 hazard effects were graded with the preliminary hazard list for Organization 1 and 22 hazard effects by Fine-Kinney; for Organization 2, hazard effects were graded 37 with the preliminary hazard list and 28 with Fine-Kinney. Because of the analyses carried out, Organization 2 was found to be more risky in terms of Natech accidents triggered by both lightning and flooding. It can be said that this situation is because the relevant organization is located in a more congested area and within the organized industry, and that it contains more voluminous tanks. It is important that emergency plans be prepared by considering the Natech risks, based on the characteristics of the industrial facility and the type of natural disaster in the region.
Natural Hazards, 2011
Natural hazards and disasters can cause major accidents in chemical and process installations. These so-called Natech accidents can result in hazardous-materials releases due to damage to process and storage units, or pipes. In order to understand the dynamics of Natech events, accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning recorded in industrial accident databases were analysed. This allowed the identification of the most vulnerable equipment types, their modes of failure due to natural-event impact and the final accident scenarios. Moreover, lessons learned for future accident prevention and mitigation were derived. The analysis showed that pipes and storage tanks are the most vulnerable equipment for earthquakes, floods and lightning, calling for more research of equipment behaviour under natural-event loading. The damage modes and states are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the impacting natural event. Toxic dispersion, fires and explosions were observed as a consequence of all three types of analysed natural events. In the case of floods, two additional scenarios were identified. These are water contamination and the formation of toxic and/or flammable vapours upon reaction of the released chemicals with the floodwaters. The overall number of recorded Natech accidents was found to range from 2 to 5% of all reported accidents in the analysed databases.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019
Industrial facilities and critical infrastructure are vulnerable to the impact of natural hazards. These impacts can trigger so-called Natech accidents and the release of toxic substances, fires and explosions, potentially resulting in health effects, environmental pollution and economic losses. Different factors drive Natech risk, including technical issues linked to the characteristics inherent in Natech events, as well as risk governance and socioeconomic challenges. This paper discusses the most important Natech risk drivers in detail, gives examples of existing instruments for Natech risk management in the European Union and at international level, and proposes a set of basic indicators to help measure a country's level of Natech risk reduction. It concludes with targeted recommendations on how to close persisting gaps related to Natech research and policy challenges.
Understanding Natech Risk Due to Storms: Analysis, Lessons Learned and Recommendations
JRC Technical Report, 2018
As standards of living generally improve across the globe, there is a corresponding change in people’s perception and acceptance of risk. The impact of natural hazards is an emerging threat to industrial facilities, pipelines, offshore platforms and other infrastructure that handles, stores or transports hazardous substances. When accidentally released, hazardous substances can lead to fires, explosions, and toxic or radioactive releases. These so-called Natech accidents are a recurring but often overlooked feature of many natural disasters and have often had significant human, environmental and economic impacts. Industries and authorities must be able to learn from incidents and capture the lessons that are needed to safely conduct business and produce goods for the whole of society. Among natural events, storms can seriously affect the integrity of an industrial installation and lead to accident scenarios such as fires, explosions and the dispersion of chemicals in the environment. In addition, scientists expect an overall worsening of extreme weather events in this century due to climate change, which will further increase the threat to industrial facilities. This report analyses past technological accidents with hazardous materials releases and damage to industrial facilities caused by the impact of storms. It discusses the vulnerability of industrial sites including that of the main equipment types present at the facility and analyses how they are damaged. The first part of the report describes the storm hazard. It discusses storm types and their occurrence, as well as the main effects that cause damage to human settlements and the environment. The report lists strong winds, heavy precipitation, lightning and storm surge as the main effects responsible for damage to industrial installations. In the second part of the report, we perform an analysis of past storm-triggered Natech events. Using different sources of public information on technological incidents, this study: 1. Analyses incident statistics; 2. Reviews a number of “landmark” accidents; 3. Discusses the lessons learned. From the analysis of past events, the report concludes that Natech events caused by storms are frequent and that their relative occurrence is increasing compared to the overall occurrence of technological incidents from other causes in the analysed databases. The largest losses were generally triggered by heavy rain and flooding, while the most frequent trigger was lightning. The study also highlighted the role of a loss of power supply in triggering an accident or hampering the mitigation of its consequences. The study presents lessons learned from the forensic analysis of past events and puts forward recommendations for future risk reduction for all storm effects. The most important lesson is that storm predictions based on past events are not sufficient to be well prepared for future events, in particular in the face of climate change.
Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue
2010
Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on quantitative risk analysis were developed. Strategies based on the use of multiple information layers aiming at the identification of mitigation and early warning systems were also explored. A case-study in the Emilia-Romagna region is presented.
The Risks Related to the Interaction Between Natural Hazards and Technologies
A large European integrating project on early recognition, monitoring and integrated management of risks related to emerging and new technologies (iNTeg-Risk) has recently started. Among several research activities, a specific task has been devoted to the interaction of natural hazards and technology (Na-Tech risks). The main goal of this task is to improve the resilience of industrial facilities to technological accidents caused or aggravated by natural hazards. In this context, the authors have analysed Na-Tech accidents due to impact of earthquakes, floods and lightning on chemical and process plants, aiming at giving a general framework for the assessment of industrial risks.